00:00Hi, you're watching the Paulada na Cara channel, my name is Marcos.
00:02And we're going to the state with the largest number of voters, which has more than double the total.
00:06of the second.
00:07São Paulo, with 34 million and 100 thousand voters.
00:11If my memory serves me right, the person who is elected governor in the state of São Paulo has the most votes.
00:16that the president of Argentina.
00:17Here we have a situation that is unfolding in a way that is very unfavorable to the PT (Workers' Party).
00:21What do you mean? There isn't a right-wing candidate to steal votes from Tarcísio.
00:24So all the votes from the right and center-right will go to him.
00:27Aside from the rejection Haddad faces in the city of São Paulo.
00:30There's a bunch of idiots who say, "Oh, Haddad was the best mayor in the history of São Paulo."
00:35It wasn't, it wasn't. And the PT's own numbers prove it.
00:38Marta Suplicy, even when she lost her reelection bid, she still went.
00:42She was from the PT (Workers' Party) and when she ran for reelection, she made it to the second round.
00:45Haddad's administration was so bad, so outrageous, that he didn't even make it to the second round of his reelection bid.
00:52The people who voted for the PT to re-elect Marta Suplicy a few years earlier did not vote for Haddad to win.
00:59He's in the second round.
00:59To make it to the second round, you need to have, historically, 30%, 33% of the votes in the city of São Paulo.
01:06voting intentions.
01:06Because you don't have a leading candidate.
01:08He managed to unite everyone around João Doria, an illustrious unknown from his electoral point of view.
01:13for him to lose in the first round.
01:14It's not that he didn't go to the second round.
01:15The election was decided in the first round, the sheer size of his reputation for being re-elected.
01:19And he was never able to revive his career here again.
01:22Never again.
01:23This, and the lack of this voter base in the city of São Paulo, means the PT has no chance of winning.
01:27second round,
01:27It's something like that, decisive.
01:30This is something that weighs heavily, because without these voters, the PT (Workers' Party) won't make it to the second round.
01:34And it's not going anywhere.
01:35According to Real Time Big Data, Tarcísio has 53% of the voting intentions.
01:39Haddad has 38%.
01:39The votes from the capital are being tallied.
01:41And it's not getting the votes from the capital.
01:42Why?
01:42Vera Lúcia from PSTU has less than 1%.
01:44Carlos Machado of the PCB has less than 1%.
01:45Vivian Mendes from UPI has less than 1%.
01:48Isadora Dias from the PCO has less than 1%.
01:49All the other candidates combined barely reach 1%.
01:51In other words, here, the minor candidates are all left-wing and represent 5% of the voting intentions.
01:56Combined with Haddad's 38%, that brings the total to 43%.
02:00Did you understand?
02:00We are 10 percentage points short here.
02:01And the São Paulo voter who doesn't want Haddad isn't an ideological voter.
02:05It's the pendulum voter.
02:07That's the type of voter who sometimes votes with the left and sometimes votes with the right.
02:09But since it's Haddad, he doesn't vote with the left.
02:11Simple as that.
02:11Ah, but what percentage of the total votes would that represent?
02:144.5% in the state scenario.
02:16Because São Paulo has, if my memory serves me right, the city of São Paulo has, if my memory serves me right.
02:20memory,
02:20One quarter of the state's total electorate.
02:22If you win 10 percentage points of votes here, that means roughly 2.5%, 3%,
02:26which would be taken from Tarcísio.
02:28In other words, it would be a binary vote, going from one side to the other.
02:32We could have a second round.
02:33Oh, you're talking ridiculously.
02:34Another institute.
02:35Veritar.
02:3555.3% for Tarcísio.
02:38The advantage is even greater.
02:39Datafolha, which conducts a biased sampling that favors the left.
02:4249 against 29.
02:43Paraná Pesquisas, 49.7 versus 34.5.
02:46Do you understand?
02:46In no polling institute, with the S poll showing a 42 to 27 result, does Haddad go to the second round.
02:52So much so that the PT has already given orders to reduce Lula's campaign budget.
02:56Sorry, the campaign funds are for Haddad.
02:57See, PT leadership cuts campaign funds for Haddad's run for governor of São Paulo.
03:01Diary of Power.
03:02PT reduces campaign funding in São Paulo.
03:04PT, on CNN.
03:06The Workers' Party (PT) reduces funding for Haddad's campaign for governor of São Paulo.
03:09Ori Verde channel on YouTube.
03:11PT cuts Haddad's campaign funding in São Paulo, generating emissions and cuts in networks.
03:15In other words, Tarcísio's victory here is almost guaranteed.
03:18And one important thing to say.
03:20In the last election, Lula didn't win because of the Northeast.
03:23Bolsonaro received one million more votes than in the previous election.
03:25Bolsonaro lost in the greater Belo Horizonte, greater Rio de Janeiro, and greater São Paulo triangle.
03:31In other words, the capital cities and metropolitan areas of these three states.
03:34I think Bolsonaro lost 4 million votes here.
03:37Or 3 million votes, that's how it ended up.
03:38I know he received fewer votes in those regions.
03:40He received more votes in the rest of Brazil as a whole.
03:42In those three metropolitan regions, he received fewer votes.
03:44Of course, in the cities that are in the middle of this triangle.
03:47Looks like that's not going to happen.
03:48Oh, what you're saying is ridiculous.
03:49It will be?
03:50Let's take a look at the Senate campaign here?
03:52Senate.
03:53Look at this interesting thing.
03:54Real-Time Big Data.
03:55We have two counts of results, we have two polls with a week's difference.
03:58In the oldest version, Simone Tevitt appeared as 17.
04:01Tied with André do Prado of the PL with 17.
04:04It's a technical tie with Guilherme Derrite of PP with 19.
04:07Marina Silva of Rede appears to be within the margin of error, along with Simone Tevitt and André do Prado.
04:13In the latest poll, released on Friday, September 19th, Simone Tevitt maintained her 17 rating.
04:18Marina Silva maintained her 14 votes.
04:20But André do Prado went up one percentage point, to 18.
04:22Guilherme Derrite of the PP party has risen to 20.
04:25What happened?
04:25The vote for Ricardo Salles, who is from the Novo Party, which is a party even further to the right than...
04:30PL fell 1%.
04:31So, he lost about 1 percent of the votes, which migrated to André do Prado and Guilherme Derrite.
04:36It's the strategic vote.
04:36So what happens then?
04:37These two rounded up by one percentage point.
04:39Ah, but what about Datafolha?
04:40Which creates a biased sample.
04:42Simone Tevitt at 13.
04:44Marina Silva with 13.
04:45André do Prado, 11 years old.
04:46Guilherme Derrite with 10.
04:47Ricardo Salles with 5.
04:48Do you understand?
04:48The teams that have been ranked four times are in a technical tie.
04:50The third-place candidate is Ricardo Salles from the Novo party.
04:52In other words, Salles' strategic vote for the other candidates is possible.
04:55Ah, Veritar Institute.
04:56André do Prado and Guilherme Derrite in the front.
04:58Beyond the margin of error, regarding Simone Tevitt and Marina Silva.
05:01Paraná research.
05:02That was at the beginning of September, right?
05:03This research was released on the 10th.
05:05Here, the sum is 200%, right?
05:08Because there are two vacancies.
05:08Simone Tevitt, 29.5%.
05:10Marina Silva, 30.4%.
05:11André do Prado, from PR, 19.3%.
05:13Guilherme Derrite, 28.9%.
05:15Ricardo Salles, 16.4%.
05:17A survey from Paraná should be released sometime this week.
05:19If I'm not mistaken, one will be released this week.
05:20It should show Ricardo Salles' dehydration.
05:24I think it's more than 1%.
05:26Since there is a more significant vote here,
05:27There should be a track of about three.
05:29So, it should be split between André do Prado and Guilherme Derrite.
05:32In this scenario, Guilherme Derrite should step in.
05:35It should enter as second.
05:38Or perhaps even first place.
05:39And André do Prado remains anonymous.
05:41However, it's possible that Simone Tevitt and Marina Silva could lose votes.
05:43Because of the history of the Supreme Federal Court.
05:45That went very badly for Lula.
05:47That's why at Coaest, on September 7th.
05:49There should be one coming out soon too, right?
05:50Simone Tevitt was 12.
05:51Marina Silva, 14.
05:52André do Prado, 7.
05:53Guilherme Derrite, 14.
05:54And Ricardo Salles, 3.
05:56Look, this is Marina Silva and Guilherme Derrite.
05:58But when you look at this image...
06:00As the polls get closer to the election date.
06:03The graph is getting bluer.
06:05It's leaning more towards the PL candidates.
06:08And from PP, right?
06:09Ah, what does that mean?
06:11Well, that means Lula is going to have a vote.
06:12Probably more wilted.
06:13This election is better than the previous one.
06:15And here it shows an error.
06:16Sacrifice Haddad.
06:17To try and get him into the second round.
06:21Fail.
06:21But Haddad would attract the ideological vote of the PT.
06:24Which is spread among Simone Tevitt, Marina Silva, Soninha Francine, Geraldo Rufino, among others.
06:30He would bring that ideological vote.
06:31That's not happening.
06:33People from the PT party can't find a PT candidate to vote for.
06:37And he doesn't want to know about Marina or Simone.
06:39In other words, with Haddad they would probably have a guaranteed senator.
06:42And it would pass the problem of not having a senator onto Flávio Bolsonaro's lap.
06:46Due to not having the two senators from the State of São Paulo.
06:47Which are fundamental to bringing down a Supreme Court justice.
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