00:00Atlas Intel released its electoral poll today, September 23rd, for the presidency of the republic and also for...
00:04governors.
00:05I will only speak about the presidency of the republic at this time.
00:07Today's headline on UOL says Lula and Flávio gain ground in the first round and remain tied in the second.
00:12If you hear some banging or knocking, it's my neighbor doing renovations in his apartment.
00:16In the online poll released today, Lula's approval rating rose from 44.1 to 45.8.
00:22And Flávio Bolsonaro went from 41.7 to 43.4.
00:25For those in love, a warning: both rose 1.7% each, meaning the gap remained the same.
00:32What happened was a dehydration, a theft of votes from the minor candidates, as I will show you.
00:38next.
00:38Thinking about the second round, Lula overtook Flávio, but that's not something to celebrate either.
00:42Because Lula has 47.7% compared to Flávio's 47.4%.
00:47Both grew within the margin of error, and Lula, in his previous appearance, was only a few tenths of a point behind Flávio.
00:52In other words, the fact that they alternate by tenths of a point makes no difference to the final result.
00:57This survey interviewed 5,015 voters through digital recruitment, by telephone, between September 17 and 22.
01:03The margin of error is 1 percentage point, and it is registered with the TSE under number BR-04739-2026.
01:13In the first round of voting, look at how the results evolved.
01:17Lula had 44.1% on September 17th, and that figure rose to 45.8%.
01:22Flávio had 41.7% and his support rose to 43.4%.
01:25Renan Santos, from Missão, dropped from 5.1% to 4.5%.
01:29Augusto Cury, from Avante, dropped from 3.5% to 2.1%.
01:33Ronaldo Caiado's approval rating dropped from 1.7% to 1.3%.
01:36And Romeu Zema, from the Novo party, fell from 1.1% to 0.9%.
01:40The other candidates do not add up to 1 percentage point in voting intentions.
01:43Blank and null votes: 0.7%, and I don't know: 0.5%.
01:45In this result, Lula and Flávio, combined, increased by 3.4% compared to the previous sample.
01:52But now, the smaller businesses have lost 2.4%.
01:55In other words, the major candidates, Lula and Flávio, are stealing votes from the smaller candidates.
02:01As expected, with only 15 days to go.
02:03The question is, of those votes that will remain, which are the votes most loyal to these political figures,
02:09Where will they go in the second round?
02:10It is this difference that will decide who wins the election.
02:13This graph doesn't show the numbers part by part.
02:16But Lula consistently hovered around 45.8% in first-round voting intentions.
02:21Flávio started below 40% and is now at 43.4%.
02:24Since August 31st, Flávio's popularity in the polls has only increased.
02:27It does not fluctuate negatively, according to Atlas Intel.
02:29In the scenario of a second round, Lula was very close to 50% on July 28th.
02:35Flávio was below 45%.
02:37Lula lost some votes compared to the beginning of the campaign.
02:40Flávio earned a considerable amount.
02:42Lula now has 47.7%, and Flávio has 47.4%.
02:45In the previous poll, I think Flávio had 47.1% and Lula had 46.8%.
02:51That's how it works.
02:51The difference between the two was less than one point.
02:54But Lula was 46, and Flávio was 47.
02:57The difference was, I don't know, 0.5%, 0.6% of the voting intention.
03:00The scenario with Romeu Zema was also tested.
03:02And here's something interesting to observe.
03:04In the second round, Romeu Zema was tied with Lula in the partial results as of September 10th.
03:10Now, the difference between the two is 5.4 percentage points.
03:13Lula has 47.6%.
03:15Romeu Zema, 42.2%.
03:17Notice that Lula's support only varied by 0.1% in this race.
03:21In other words, that's pretty much his ceiling.
03:23Like Ronaldo Caiado.
03:24There was also a draw on September 10th.
03:27And Lula, now on September 23rd, has 46%.
03:30And Caiado's approval rating had fallen to close to 40%, and now it's at 44%.
03:34It showed recovery.
03:35Note that Lula's support dropped by 1.1 percentage points compared to Flávio's.
03:40This indicates that his ceiling is somewhere around 47% of the electorate.
03:44Flávio's problem is getting voters who don't want Lula to vote for him.
03:49And we'll see about that, right?
03:51How will it turn out?
03:51With Augusto Cury, the installment here starts on September 10th.
03:54On September 10th, Cury had approximately 41% of the intended votes.
03:58Lula, slightly below 45%.
04:01Lula's approval rating is currently rising to 46.2%.
04:04And Augusto Cury recovered a little and is at 39.4%.
04:07A difference of almost 7 points.
04:10Augusto Cury has, in fact, deflated his image.
04:12And Lula maintains his approval rating at around 46%.
04:16While 47.7% appears to be his ceiling, 46.2% appears to be his floor.
04:21Because with Renan Santos, who is the most disliked of the significant candidates,
04:25Renan never surpassed 35% in any polling analysis.
04:29And Lula was at around 48% of voting intentions and fell to 46.5% of...
04:34Intention to vote against Renan.
04:36That was the video.
04:37So, if you enjoyed the video, please like, comment, and share.
04:41Help me with this channel project.
04:46Goodbye.
04:47Goodbye.
04:48Goodbye.
04:48Goodbye.
