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Neste vídeo apresento o trabalho muito bem apresentado pelo instituto Gerp em que Flávio Bolsonaro lidera em primeiro e segundo turno apesar da propaganda de melhor qualidade do Lula.
Link com as pesquisas do instituto: https://www.gerp.com.br/relatorios.html
Link com as pesquisas do instituto: https://www.gerp.com.br/relatorios.html
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NotíciasTranscrição
00:00Hi, you're watching the Paulada na Cara channel. My name is Marcos.
00:03The Datafolha poll results came out last night.
00:05I'm not going to talk about him in this video; I'll leave that for the next video I'm going to release.
00:09Because I was waiting for Leonardo Dias' analysis.
00:12This young man does statistical analysis.
00:13And he takes the Datafolha survey and dissects it,
00:16showing how Datafolha is designed to be an advertising tool and not a research tool.
00:22So I'm going to show a video about the material he provides from Datafolha being corrected.
00:29Because when you correct the Datafolha sample using updated IBGE data,
00:34The result changes completely.
00:35This is very interesting, because there are many research institutes that do this.
00:39but in a less radical way than Datafolha.
00:41So, here's a tip for the next video.
00:43And now let's talk about the GERP Institute, which conducted some very interesting research from a technical standpoint.
00:47Between September 14th and 16th, GERP conducted a survey with 2,400 people by telephone.
00:55A GERP of 2.2 percentage points, plus or minus.
00:58The coverage was carried out, using this method, in all 5,570 cities in Brazil.
01:03which is recognized by their database, which contains 290 million phone lines.
01:08You're going to say, "But there are 220 million inhabitants in Brazil, how can there be 290 lines?"
01:13Hey, my friend, it's counting prepaid lines, postpaid lines, and landlines here.
01:18I still have a landline at home because of my phone line here.
01:21On this phone, I have two phone lines.
01:23Got it? My dad also has a phone with two lines, and so on.
01:27It's normal to have two phone lines here in Brazil when you work.
01:30So, that's going to be more than one phone line per inhabitant in Brazil.
01:34That's normal.
01:34And the research, it begins by telephone.
01:37In other words, the computer calls people, distributed across 5,570 municipalities, in a random order.
01:42The interview, she is being watched.
01:44Like this?
01:44It is always recorded with the person either verifying the answer or conducting the research themselves.
01:50That's where quotas are controlled, tied to standards of sex, age, income, and region.
01:56The data is protected against fraud, and 20% of that data is verified afterward.
02:01And the accounting is immediate, because everything is entered directly into the database.
02:04And then the connection will be made interview by interview.
02:08In other words, you answered the interview, the database changes, and the entire chart is updated.
02:11That's why it's such an interesting method, because it doesn't have a sample size limited by geographical factors.
02:16It is limited by whether or not the person is willing to respond to the survey for you.
02:21within that city, within that neighborhood that needs to conduct the research.
02:24So, you can't interview so-and-so, but you can, suddenly,
02:28Interview the brother of so-and-so who lives in the same neighborhood, because the computer found the person.
02:33So that's pretty cool.
02:34The sample ends up being quite consistent.
02:37On page 5, the link will be in the description.
02:39In their research, they explain why they chose that sample size.
02:43Because she represents millions.
02:44Because it's a large sample, 2,400 people were interviewed.
02:47Data Folha typically surveys 2,002 people.
02:50In other words, a sample 20% smaller.
02:52The research was conducted by GERP, using its own resources.
02:54In other words, it's a way for her to showcase the quality of her work to the entire country.
02:58so that she could later be hired to do statistical research work,
03:02for marketing companies and related businesses.
03:04And the period, I've already mentioned the period, and the record is at the Superior Electoral Court.
03:09with the number BR00535 of 2026.
03:14One thing I liked about this...
03:16It's the care they take in presenting the data they collected.
03:20This is the demographic profile of the sample.
03:22And it's well stratified, well specified.
03:25It turned out really great.
03:26This is very helpful when you're comparing this research with others.
03:29And the confidence level here is 95.55%.
03:33In other words, if 10,000 surveys are conducted, 9,555 of the results will be the same.
03:42But I've talked too much nonsense already, let's get to what matters.
03:44In the spontaneous response, without a list of names, Flávio Bolsonaro appears with 38%.
03:49Lula, with 35%.
03:50Augusto Cury, with 3%.
03:52Ronaldo Caiado, with 2%.
03:53Renan Santos, with 2%.
03:54Romeu Zema, Pablo Marçal, with 0%.
03:5618% don't know, another 2%.
03:59Ah, but why is Flávio Bolsonaro appearing in the foreground here?
04:02It's the profile of the sample that was collected.
04:05One important detail.
04:06There are surveys where, if you sample the data exactly as provided by the IBGE (Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics), the results will be more or less accurate.
04:10Except for that one.
04:10The corrected data sheet itself gives this result.
04:12I'll show you in another video.
04:14Here are the estimated results for the first round.
04:19In other words, when you introduce the candidates.
04:21Here, Flávio Bolsonaro appears with 40% of the voting intention.
04:24Lula appears with 37%.
04:26Augusto Cury, with 7%.
04:27Ronaldo Caiado, with 3%.
04:28Renan Santos, with 2%.
04:29Romeu Zema, with 1%.
04:30Pablo Marçal, with 1%.
04:31All others, with 0%.
04:324% don't know.
04:33None of them, 4%.
04:34Several polls are showing Flávio Bolsonaro and Lula tied numerically in the first round.
04:39Few give Flávio an advantage.
04:41So, the fact that he's in the lead is irrelevant in the first round.
04:44What matters is that in no serious poll, even with distorted sampling, does Lula win in the first round.
04:51Oh, what you're saying is ridiculous, I don't know what else.
04:53Okay.
04:53For the presidential election, the data is available on the Vicped website, the TSE website, and similar sources.
04:59In the first round, Lula received 48.43% of the votes.
05:03Jair Bolsonaro received 43.2% of the valid votes.
05:05It's normal for Lula to lose some votes during the reelection process.
05:10Because you have the wear and tear of the government.
05:12And Lula is in his third term.
05:13There are people in the PT (Workers' Party) who don't want him.
05:15I wanted renewal.
05:16Ah, but what about Flávio Bolsonaro?
05:18Flávio Bolsonaro is 40.
05:20His father was 43.
05:21Again.
05:22There's the issue of rejection.
05:23So, in the first round, both Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro would have fewer votes now than Lula and Jair did.
05:30Bolsonaro in the previous election,
05:31It's absolutely normal and predictable.
05:34In valid votes, when you convert to valid votes in the first round, Flávio goes to 44, Lula remains
05:39with 40.
05:39It's a technical tie, because if it's two percentage points more or less, that is, you bet two to
05:43Except for Flávio, it becomes 42.
05:45Play more for Lula, 42 as well.
05:46In other words, they are at their limit.
05:47But it remains.
05:48I believe, moreover, that in the first round of voting, both Flávio and Lula should reach 40%.
05:55I also don't believe that any of them will reach 45%.
05:57So it will stay in that range.
05:58The difference will come in the second round, in my opinion.
06:01In the second-round simulation, there was a seven percentage point difference between the candidates.
06:07Oh!
06:08Who took off?
06:09Flávio Bolsonaro.
06:10Bah, how are you talking over there?
06:11It's giving 50% to Flávio, 43% to Lula.
06:14Yes, that's what's happening in this sample.
06:16Ah, but then the sample profile...
06:17No, collection.
06:18The trend is to get closer.
06:20I believe that Flávio will confirm a victory, or Lula will confirm a victory, with the difference being...
06:26Two, three percentage points.
06:28Not seven.
06:29And in the second round, according to this poll, using this technique, the difference between the two always remained between one and
06:35seven points.
06:36The green line represents Flávio Bolsonaro.
06:37You can see that he consistently, using this technique, stays ahead of Lula.
06:41Only in the July 17th poll was Lula one percentage point behind Flávio.
06:50In other words, here in every second round, Flávio is in the lead.
06:53It was only after the start of the campaign, and in the first interview of that series, when Flávio had 45% and Lula 39%, that...
07:00The two of them were beyond the margin of error, the difference in votes between them.
07:04After that, it always remained within the margin of error, and in July, as I already mentioned, it was at 1.
07:08% only.
07:09But, since August, because of the scandals involving Lulinha, Lulinha has hurt his father a lot in this process.
07:16According to this research study, the electoral difference was always above 5 points.
07:21With Flávio here, having 47%, Lula 42% on August 25th, on September 8th 47% and
07:2740% and now 50% to 43%.
07:29And here, probably, if it weren't for the Supreme Court scandal, Lula would have been able to get closer.
07:35Because during election campaigns, on radio and TV, Lula has a larger audience.
07:38His audience is a bit older, they watch more TV.
07:41So it's a poorer audience, one that has less internet access, or rather, less access via phone or fixed internet, for
07:46to be able to see things on social media.
07:47So, these are people who watch more TV.
07:50And what about rejection?
07:52In the last election, Jair Bolsonaro consistently had a higher disapproval rating than Lula.
07:56Why? Because Jair was the one in power, Lula was the one out.
07:59Now it's reversed, which is normal.
08:00Lula is in power, Flávio Bolsonaro, who is the heir of the real Bolsonaro, is Jair, he is 40.
08:05Isn't that right? Yes, Lula is 49, Flávio Bolsonaro is 40.
08:07Lula's government has been systematically rejected by half the population.
08:10It has been fluctuating between 48, 49, 50, 51, and 52 points in disapproval of Lula.
08:15Absolutely normal.
08:15Does this guarantee victory for Flávio?
08:16No, because Flávio needs people to go and vote.
08:19Because Lula's voters will vote.
08:20That's a fact.
08:21And the rejection expressed throughout the published editions.
08:24Lula, from the beginning, has been hovering between 47 and 49%.
08:29Flávio Bolsonaro, look at something interesting that this research has revealed.
08:34According to this research, the attacks on Flávio Bolsonaro improved his image.
08:37What's that?
08:37This is what some researchers call the victim mentality syndrome.
08:40You start attacking one person, and others begin to feel sorry for the person being attacked.
08:44Then Flávio was 42, he went up to 44, 46.
08:48In July, on July 17th, the two were tied, 47 to 46 in rejection.
08:51Then, in August, Lula was at 48, while Flávio fluctuated to 44.
08:55That's when the attacks started, like the Dark Horse incident and the connection with Vorcar.
08:59involving the biographical film about Jair.
09:02Then, Flávio Bolsonaro's disapproval rating dropped from 44 to 40.
09:05In other words, they shot themselves in the foot.
09:06According to this research here, Lula's marketing team shot themselves in the foot by attacking the
09:10Flávio Bolsonaro.
09:11By attacking, in other words, just throwing mud at the fan.
09:14Why?
09:15Because people go to social media to verify information and discover, for example,
09:18that the production company they were talking about was responsible for receiving money from the film here in Brazil
09:21It's not a production company at all; it's a third-party company that was hired to film some exterior shots.
09:26Here in Brazil, the actual production company is in the United States, and all the accounting is done there.
09:30In other words, there's no way to do it or confront it here.
09:33So, all of this has been working against us.
09:35And people are picking up on this information.
09:36So, the rejection of Lula remained there, 47, 38, 49,
09:40Flávio Bolsonaro's number dropped to 40.
09:41Those four percentage points represent the undecided voter.
09:43But look at this curious thing.
09:44Look what radio and TV commercials do.
09:48And I'm not talking about mandatory advertising, I'm talking about institutional advertising.
09:51Who will win? Lula or Flávio Bolsonaro?
09:53In the poll, the perception of Lula's victory is stronger.
09:56even though his electorate in the polls is smaller.
09:58What does this mean?
09:59The undecided voter, or one who was recently undecided,
10:03It's Flávio's decision, but he thinks Lula will win.
10:05That's the truth.
10:06That's the impression one gets.
10:08Ah, this is confirmed by the vote.
10:10No.
10:11This will appear when you do the stratification.
10:13of the voter who abstained from voting.
10:16In other words, the one who gave up.
10:17I'm not going, I'm not going, my candidate is going to lose.
10:19That's why I say that Lula's voters will vote for him.
10:21He has this perception that Lula's victory is easier.
10:24even if the research says otherwise.
10:26Whereas Flávio's voters have the opposite perception.
10:28For these and other reasons, even though Flávio is appearing to be in the lead,
10:32His challenge is to get his voters to vote.
10:34Lula's case is, oh, the chance exists, let's vote.
10:37In other words, it's a different discourse.
10:39Well, this is talking about the approval of the presidency of the republic.
10:4250% of the population disapproves of the way the presidency is being conducted.
10:4844% approve.
10:50This type of index is very much in line with what we see around us.
10:53However, this 50% disapproval rating does not necessarily mean a vote for the opposition.
10:58Approval, on the other hand, tends to confirm a vote for the incumbent, that is, for whoever is in power.
11:03And what about the historical series?
11:04Look at this interesting thing.
11:05While several institutes have indicated a worsening of these numbers for Lula,
11:09Things have pretty much stayed the same here.
11:11Because at the beginning of the historical series, on June 5th, Lula's approval rating was 40%.
11:16Then it went to 43, 43, 42, 43, 41, 44.
11:19His approval rating improved somewhat with the election campaign.
11:21Ah, it improved within the margin of error.
11:23It improved within the margin of error.
11:24But that's quite an achievement.
11:25It improved by 4 percentage points.
11:26And what about disapproval?
11:27It was at 52.
11:28It dropped to 50, repeated 50, went up to 53, did 51, 52 and went back to 50.
11:33In other words, his disapproval rating did not fluctuate negatively.
11:37But approval ratings fluctuated positively.
11:39The margin of error between the first and second readings has fluctuated twice at this point.
11:44Which is a good sign.
11:45Well, and here comes an Achilles' heel for Lula.
11:47What are the most frequently cited problems by Brazilians?
11:51And these will be topics for the second round.
11:53First, the violence.
11:54And Lula shot himself in the foot by rejecting and transforming the PCC and Comando Vermelho into terrorist organizations.
12:00He could have made the following move.
12:02I will not approve.
12:02We'll have this discussion in Congress after the election.
12:05He could say that.
12:06If he wins, he simply doesn't make the offer and that's it.
12:08Push it towards your belly, you understand?
12:10Now, if he doesn't approve, it works against him.
12:12This will be heavily exploited by Flávio Bolsonaro in the second round.
12:16Lack of hospitals.
12:17Affection between the two.
12:18Public health issue.
12:19Corruption.
12:19But Jair Bolsonaro is this, I don't know what else.
12:21Dude, there isn't a single corruption case that Jair Bolsonaro has lost.
12:24Lula lost the corruption trial.
12:26He was convicted for it.
12:27Ah, but he was acquitted.
12:28No no.
12:28The trial was annulled because it was determined that the case should have been held in Brasília.
12:33which is when the crime occurred, not in Curitiba.
12:35And then everything went back to square one.
12:36Since the trial period had already passed, the case was dismissed due to the statute of limitations.
12:40That's what happened.
12:41He was not acquitted.
12:42They found a technicality to undo what had been done.
12:46But he had been convicted in two instances.
12:48He was about to be convicted on the third offense.
12:49The Supreme Court couldn't find a way to acquit him.
12:52That's what they did.
12:53There was no way to convict the judge.
12:55They condemned the investigator.
12:56They condemned the investigator.
12:57The person who raised the issue and took the case to Curitiba is the one who, in the end, was condemned.
13:01Got it, play?
13:01This will be explored.
13:02And Jair Bolsonaro is in jail.
13:04Yes, but it wasn't due to corruption.
13:05There are a lot of lawsuits that have been filed against him.
13:07Because of corruption.
13:07And then it didn't go anywhere.
13:08Ah, they carried out Operation Cover-Up.
13:10No.
13:10It's not that they carried out Operation Cover-Up.
13:11They found no evidence.
13:12Three of Lula's treasurers from the PT (Workers' Party) were arrested during the Mensalão scandal.
13:15José de Seu, who was the second most powerful man in Brazil, second only to Lula,
13:18He was arrested for corruption.
13:19Antônio Palocci ended his political career due to corruption.
13:21Then you had the Mensalão scandal.
13:24Next, you had the Lava Jato scandal.
13:26Everything about the PT administration.
13:27All of this will be explored.
13:28Ah, but Lula was corrupted.
13:30He wasn't corrupt.
13:31You can say that.
13:31All good.
13:31But the PT is...
13:32The PT's history is...
13:33Because there are a lot of people who have been arrested for corruption.
13:36Grown-ups.
13:36Flávio will explore this.
13:38Ah, but the one on the other side has it too.
13:39AND.
13:39All good.
13:40Who among the high-ranking members of Jair Bolsonaro's government were arrested for corruption?
13:43They accuse us of staging a coup.
13:44They convicted them of fraud.
13:44But not corruption.
13:45They are different things.
13:46And on Lula's side, there are many powerful people who have been arrested.
13:49Bad schooling affects both of them.
13:50Very high taxes.
13:51Look at Lula's problem right now.
13:53Taxes were increased significantly.
13:54The "blouse tax" is an attempt to correct course.
13:57But it came too late.
13:58I should have done that.
13:59Go.
13:59This should have been done last year.
14:02This disclosure should have been encouraged.
14:04The income tax reduction reached very few people.
14:08They should have reduced the consumption tax.
14:10Ah, but that would open during loading.
14:11No.
14:11Because you can be punctual.
14:13You could reduce consumption to things that are typical for the population.
14:16Starting with the population.
14:18CID.
14:18Who is a Lula voter?
14:20And that is serving a portion of them.
14:22Especially people who live in big cities.
14:24He's going to vote for Flávio.
14:25Oh, you could be punctual.
14:26THE.
14:26I'm not going to reduce the tax on computers.
14:28But I'll cut back on my cell phone.
14:29Oh, I'm not going to reduce the tax on car tires.
14:32But I will reduce the tax on public transportation companies.
14:36In other words, you could make that accommodation.
14:38Oh, it didn't.
14:39Let's put this on the table.
14:40Ah, but what about Jair Bolsonaro?
14:42The tax on video games has been reduced.
14:43The tax on animal feed was reduced.
14:44For animal feed.
14:45Primarily fish feed.
14:46The old man in the van.
14:47During the four years that Bolsonaro was president.
14:49I wanted to implement a business similar to the t-shirt fee.
14:51He didn't implement it.
14:52He didn't even put it on the table for discussion.
14:54He was always against it.
14:55So this will work very against Lula.
14:57And he won't play against Flávio Bolsonaro.
14:59Lack of doctors.
15:00It affects both of them.
15:00Very high cost of living.
15:02It affects both of them.
15:02Because Jair Bolsonaro, Flávio's father, had the problem with Covid.
15:06Which caused inflation to skyrocket at the time.
15:09And that affected him too.
15:10So it's kind of a draw.
15:12Unemployment.
15:12It's starting to grow now.
15:13Brazil is entering an economic crisis now.
15:15The issue of unemployment begins at the end of this year.
15:17It won't show up on the table.
15:19And the rest is irrelevant.
15:21This is a discussion that is more at the state and municipal level.
15:24So, according to everything, the issues are detrimental to Lula.
15:27Here, 45% of voters say they have watched campaign ads on television.
15:31I'll be honest with you.
15:32I watched it once to see what tone it was in.
15:35And look, it's bad.
15:36Our Lady.
15:37It's very bad.
15:38The language is terrible.
15:39The technique is terrible.
15:41The theme is awful.
15:42The topics they're looking for are awful.
15:45Poor people who are running for state representative.
15:47Damn, what a mess.
15:48I am so-and-so.
15:49Vote for me.
15:49Number such, such, such, such, such, such, such, such, such, such, such, such, such, such, such, such, such, such, such, such,
15:52such.
15:53Replace the guy.
15:53Sometimes the sentence isn't even finished.
15:55It's a real mess.
15:56That's why people aren't following the election broadcasts.
15:59What is the best television campaign?
16:01On TV, Lula has a 40% approval rating.
16:04Bolsonaro, 33.
16:05Question read to the 1079 respondents who stated they had seen the advertisement.
16:09Sometimes a difference of 7 percentage points exceeds the critical threshold of 5.5 percentage points for comparing the two.
16:14Therefore, it is statistically significant.
16:16What it means?
16:16On TV, Lula's campaign ads have been better than Flávio Bolsonaro's.
16:20That's because Flávio has a little less time.
16:22But honestly, both are weak.
16:25The fact that Lula is doing better doesn't mean much.
16:29And here's something important that I haven't mentioned before, but I'm going to mention it now.
16:3351% did not see any election propaganda.
16:36More than half of Brazilians do not watch election propaganda on radio or TV.
16:39Look, to be honest, I only watch TV here when Palmeiras is playing.
16:43Only.
16:43I watched election propaganda the other day out of obligation.
16:47But for me, TV is only for watching football games.
16:49Sometimes it's just a movie that ends.
16:51TV has become an ornament.
16:53My elderly parents still watch a lot of TV.
16:54But even they spend more time on their cell phones these days than paying attention to what's on the screen.
16:59Or rather, on the big screen, right?
17:00Okay, folks.
17:00Here, at the very end, is the JEP technical contact information.
17:04And I make them my word.
17:06Thank you very much.
17:06If you enjoyed the video, please like, comment, and share.
17:10Help me with this channel project.
17:11Goodbye.
17:12Goodbye.
17:13Goodbye.
17:13Goodbye.
17:13Goodbye.
17:14Goodbye.
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