00:00Hi, you're watching the Paulada na Cara channel. My name is Marcos.
00:03Today, September 17th, the Poder 360 website released the research.
00:07Poder Data AIA on voting intentions for president.
00:11This survey covered the period from the 13th to the 16th, in other words, half of the survey.
00:16It was done during the session at the Supreme Court, where it was being evaluated.
00:20The request for an investigation by Alexandre de Moraes. And this will have a negative impact.
00:24for Lula. And he also recorded the following day.
00:27The Supreme Court's indecision on what to do with Moraes. And we'll see about that soon.
00:31There may be some impact on this research. So, let's look at the numbers. Let's take a look at the historical series.
00:35which begins on May 25th. Let me come over here to the other side. There, on May 25th.
00:39Lula had 40% of the voting intentions, Flávio Bolsonaro 35%.
00:43It was beyond the margin of error. In June, it was 36, 40%.
00:47Then, in the next three partial results, between July 11 and 14, and July 26 and 29.
00:51Between August 9th and 12th, Flávio Bolsonaro's support ranged between 34% and 35%.
00:55Lula's approval rating is between 40 and 41%. Always outside the margin of error.
00:57From August 23rd onwards,
00:59The two of them started to consistently tie.
01:01Within the margin of error. Where Lula
01:03This second half begins
01:05Flávio with 38%, and Flavio with 35%.
01:07And it's been getting narrower. Now,
01:09The two are tied with a difference of
01:11only one percentage point in the first round.
01:13Flávio Bolsonaro varies, reaching 36
01:15And Lula's approval rating is dropping to 37%. Notice that.
01:17Flavio never left that house.
01:1934, 36%, but Lula left
01:2140 to 37. In other words, it dropped.
01:23more than once the margin of error.
01:25Augusto Cury went from 3 to 10.
01:27And now it's dropped to 8. Renan Santos
01:29It has been fluctuating between 3 and 4% for quite some time now.
01:32Ronaldo Caiado in
01:33Between July 26th and 29th, it reached 5%.
01:35It dropped to 4, it dropped to 2.
01:37It's at 3% now.
01:38Pets Dias from PSTU, strangely,
01:40It was zero, now it shows 2%.
01:422%, 1, and now 2.
01:44Pablo Marçal, whose candidacy was challenged,
01:47it started at 3% in
01:48From August 23rd to 26th, it dropped to 2
01:51And in that last one, there's 1%. Clariana Barão
01:53It always alternated between 0 and 1%.
01:55Romeu Zema, oh Zema.
01:57It started at 4%, then dropped to 3%.
01:59It went up to 4, then stayed at 3, 3, 2,
02:01It's now turning 1. Note that the series
02:03of his videos, The Untouchables, has
02:05given a large audience on YouTube, but the staff
02:07Don't vote for him. It's a campaign that...
02:09It doesn't pull votes for Romeu Zema.
02:10Rui Costa Pimenta's ratings have varied between 0 and 1.
02:13Samara Dupe has also varied between 0 and 1.
02:15Edmilson from PCB has fluctuated between 0 and 1.
02:17And Wilson Grass is here just to do
02:19Funny, right? Because it's at 0 all the time.
02:21Blank and null votes, 4% in health.
02:23or partially, don't know, 2%.
02:25As you can see, the impact for Flávio
02:27In this research, it was absolutely
02:29None about what happened at the Supreme Federal Court.
02:31As for Lula, it's signaling that things...
02:32That's not good. Oh, but how? I was 37,
02:35It went up to 38, it went up to 37. Exactly.
02:37Another problem. He was supposed to be going up now.
02:39And it's not happening. Then we have demographics.
02:41From the second round, right? Where Lula
02:42He remains the most voted candidate among women.
02:45which registers 50% voter tension.
02:47against 38% for Senator Flávio.
02:49It is the women's group that has been holding on.
02:51Lula's vote, but probably
02:53It will start to degenerate soon, too.
02:55The president has an advantage specifically.
02:57In the Northeast, 56% of voting tensions.
02:59But it lost its advantage in the North.
03:01going from 55% in the last round
03:03to 40% in this one. Remember I said
03:05that the situation at the Supreme Federal Court was about to begin
03:07How much does it weigh? Among those with an income of up to
03:09two minimum wages, 50% vote for
03:11president. Among those who completed elementary school,
03:13That's 49%. Flávio is better in the Midwest.
03:15in the South and among those who studied up to high school.
03:17In other words, more educated people and who
03:19It's more economically active. Here's the graph, right?
03:22In the second round, Lula
03:23It has 44% voter confidence.
03:25Flávio has 46%. That's because the series
03:27Historical data doesn't appear here.
03:29It will only appear in the search results.
03:31written out in full, which will not be disclosed.
03:33Today. They will format and release it.
03:35Probably tomorrow. And here, the Dada Power
03:37He identified a phenomenon that I already had.
03:39observed a few days ago. The situation
03:41Lula's electoral campaign is somewhat...
03:43tighter with each round. The movement
03:45It's not abrupt, but persistent.
03:47In other words, it's not a fall. It's a
03:50Degeneration of the electoral landscape.
03:51Because of the scandals involving the Supreme Federal Court,
03:54INSS, Lulinha,
03:56bankruptcy and recovery requests
03:57judicial proceedings that are taking place one after another,
03:59Little by little, here and there, eating
04:01Lula's votes. So, he with the
04:03An election campaign gains one vote, it loses another.
04:05But over time, this balance
04:07It breaks down. It ends up starting to lose.
04:09more votes than winning. Because the guy
04:11What he lost, he can't get back. And that voter...
04:13He's voting for Flávio. Bolsonaro isn't.
04:15Because he wants Flávio, but because he no longer wants Lula.
04:17That's why Flávio has been trending in several polls.
04:19one or two percentage points above Lula.
04:21as is the case here with Poder Dada.
04:23Here is a comment.
04:25There is still one ingredient that the research did not
04:27It captures completely. The outcome of the Supreme Court meeting.
04:29and its unfolding events. As I said, it caught on here.
04:31The day and the next day. A part
04:33This impact will only become apparent over time.
04:35of the week. And this poll won't catch on. Probably.
04:37the data sheet that will be released today,
04:39It will be fully lit by late afternoon. Then we'll see...
04:41that there has already been an impact on the institute that has
04:43A sample that historically favors Lula.
04:46The term I used. To win,
04:47Lula needs to stop the milk from deteriorating
04:49of his voting intention rate. Precisely
04:51At a time when there are only a few weeks left until the vote.
04:53He doesn't have time. That's the crux of the matter.
04:55The election will be in less than
04:57Three weeks, the first round. And if
04:59the impression of defeat becomes evident.
05:02because if both of them technically leave
05:03If they tie, Lula will be abandoned.
05:05on the part of his electorate that will see defeat as certain.
05:07In this interview, the following were heard:
05:093,000 people in 623 municipalities
05:12of the 27 federations. The margin of error
05:14It is 1.8 percentage points.
05:15There's also this. The survey has a narrow margin of error.
05:18because most people give 2, 2, 2
05:202.19. But it's giving
05:211.8 because the sample size was larger.
05:23The confidence interval is 95%.
05:25It is registered with the TSE under number
05:29BR00360
05:29bar 2026.
05:34And here is the historical series.
05:36Notice how the thing
05:37in the second round it has been
05:39well defined. On May 25th
05:41Flávio had 42% and Lula had 46%.
05:43It was 4 percentage points. In other words,
05:45The two were tied within the margin of error.
05:47This clearly indicated Lula as the favorite.
05:49And so the two remained in that situation.
05:5142%, 43%.
05:52For Flávio, 45%, 46% for Lula.
05:54Until July 26th, 29th. When does it start to appear?
05:57The story of Lulinha, from Luxinger.
06:00Which are tarnishing his image.
06:02And this causes the electorate
06:03If you're unsure, start switching to Flávio.
06:05There is a fluctuation in August.
06:07They both fall a little.
06:08And then they start to appear
06:10the scandals involving the Supreme Federal Court
06:12whose image is strongly associated with Lula.
06:14Then Flávio goes from 42%, 43% to 47%.
06:18And Lula is coming in at 45%.
06:20In other words, the undecided voter chose Flávio.
06:22And Lula is starting to lose votes.
06:23The scandal is already happening at the beginning of September.
06:26of the links, of the connections.
06:28They divorced Alexandre de Moraes.
06:29Mendonça indicated that it should be investigated by the Supreme Federal Court.
06:32And honestly, I believed that the PT people
06:35I would burn Alexandre de Moraes.
06:37Precisely because Moraes was an appointee of Michel Temer.
06:40Whom the PT sees as a traitor.
06:41And not as something to be protected.
06:43And that would help Lula's image.
06:45His ministers and he himself are speaking out.
06:47against Alexandre de Moraes.
06:48But in the behind-the-scenes game,
06:50Alexandre de Moraes must have a lot of dirt on his hands.
06:53And during the election period,
06:54No one wants to see their image tarnished.
06:56So they'll probably burn.
06:58Minister Alexandre de Moraes
06:59Only after the second round.
07:00And so, that two percentage point difference remained.
07:02Flávio dropped from 47 to 46.
07:04But Lula's approval rating dropped from 45 to 44.
07:05And here's something interesting.
07:06It says here that 2%
07:08They don't know who to vote for.
07:10And 8% indicate blank or null votes.
07:12And that's two percentage points.
07:13The difference between the two candidates.
07:14The trend is in the second round.
07:16for Flávio to win.
07:17Even though most of those who don't know
07:20migrate to Lula,
07:21since there are two points of difference
07:22and there are two undecided points,
07:24It only takes a fraction of the undecided.
07:26Vote for Flávio to confirm his victory.
07:28The other scenarios were also created here.
07:30In scenario 2 with Augusto Cury,
07:32It reached 44, 43.
07:34And then there was a variation within the margin of error.
07:36Where Cury went from 44 to 45.
07:39And Lula went from 43 to 42.
07:42I.e,
07:42The history of the Supreme Federal Court (STF) has harmed Lula.
07:45It's not that Flávio came out with an advantage.
07:47It is Lula who is at a disadvantage in this story.
07:48Because he's the one who's losing votes.
07:50of those who were undecided until the start of the campaign.
07:52And in scenario 3,
07:53Flávio and Cury,
07:54whore, between right and center-left,
07:57perhaps with a great deal of goodwill from the center-right,
07:59Flávio remains at 43.
08:00and Augusto Cury is 36.
08:01Cury has a large voter intention.
08:04He has a very good image.
08:05Perhaps he will be able to get elected in the next election.
08:07as a senator for some state here in Brazil.
08:09And that.
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08:11Enjoy!
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