00:00Hi, you're watching the Paulada na Cara channel. My name is Marcos.
00:03Atlas Intel released a poll today, September 17th, regarding the Presidential election.
00:07And the results are very favorable for Flávio Bolsonaro.
00:11Let's go to it.
00:12In the first round of voting intentions, when the names are indicated,
00:15Lula appears with 44.1% of the voting intention.
00:18Flávio Bolsonaro, 41.7%.
00:20There is no technical tie here, because in this survey, which has a little over 5,000 respondents,
00:24The margin of error is plus or minus 1 percentage point.
00:27Renan Santos, from Missão, appears with 5.1%.
00:30Augusto Cury's approval rating dropped to 3.5%.
00:31Ronaldo Caiado, 1.7%.
00:33Zemo, 1.1%.
00:34Samara, from UPI, 0.7%.
00:36And here I'll give you a diagnosis of what will happen in the second round.
00:40President Lula's approval rating has worsened.
00:42She is at 53.6%.
00:44Approval fell to 45.4%.
00:46I don't know, 0.9%.
00:47If my memory serves me right, the disapproval and approval ratings varied by two percentage points.
00:52In other words, disapproval worsened and...
00:55Both disapproval and approval have worsened.
00:57Lula is in a worse situation here.
00:59This is President Lula's approval, right?
01:01Now, the government's assessment.
01:03This remained more or less stable.
01:04Bad and terrible, 51.5%.
01:06Excellent and good, 40.9%.
01:08Regular, 7.6%.
01:09Ah, but why did you say it stayed more or less the same?
01:13Because, normally, these surveys showed something around 20%.
01:17But here, the regular level has fallen, and it's become bad, terrible.
01:19Great and good, they increased.
01:20In other words, people are forming their opinions about the government.
01:24And this has a lot to do with Lula's stance against Mendonça and not against Moraes.
01:29And Brazilians want a suspect to be investigated, not protected.
01:33And now we move on to the second round scenario.
01:36In the scenarios tested, it was Lula against Flávio Bolsonaro.
01:39In this scenario, Lula has 46.8%.
01:42Flávio Bolsonaro, 4.7%.
01:44Flávio has a 0.4% lead.
01:46It's a small numerical advantage, well below the 1% margin of error, but he is numerically ahead.
01:53Lula versus Romeu Zema.
01:54Here he appears with 46.3%.
01:56Romeu Zema, 43.7%.
01:57Lula appears with 46.3%.
01:59Zema with 43.7%.
02:01Starting with Zema, all the differences are greater than the margin of error.
02:05In this case, it's 2.6 percentage points.
02:07For Ronaldo Caiado, Lula received 46% of the vote.
02:1041.7% for Ronaldo Caiado.
02:12The difference is 4.3%.
02:14From Lula to Augusto Cury, it went from 45.6% to 37.8%.
02:187.8%.
02:19Lula's vote for Renan Santos was 46.1% against 29.7%.
02:24A difference of 16.4%.
02:25Notice that at no point does Lula reach 47%.
02:28He's in every scenario.
02:30From 46.8% downwards.
02:32Reaching 45.6%.
02:34Meanwhile, in this poll, Flávio Bolsonaro already had 47.2%.
02:37In other words, Flávio Bolsonaro's window of opportunity is probably favorable.
02:42Largely because of the decisions, or rather, the lack of decisions by the Supreme Federal Court regarding
02:47Alexandre de Moraes.
02:48And the absence of a stance from Lula and PT members in favor of the investigation.
02:52Regarding Alexandre de Moraes' relationship with Daniel Borcaro.
02:56This survey interviewed 5,018 voters from September 11th to 16th, that is, over 5 days.
03:03research.
03:03The margin of error is 1 percentage point.
03:06The confidence level is 95%.
03:08The survey is registered with the Superior Electoral Court under number BR-06221-2026.
03:15at a cost of R$ 75,000, paid for with funds from Atlas Intel itself.
03:21Okay everyone, that's it.
03:22If you liked it, then please like, comment, share, and subscribe to the channel.
03:27to help me with this project.
03:29Thank you very much.
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