00:00We are in uncharted territory for the satellite era since 1966.
00:05Every year has brought at least one hurricane to the table before mid-September.
00:10Here we are at the midpoint of September and we're past the official peak of the hurricane season.
00:14Still no hurricanes, but we have a lot of time to go yet.
00:17And if we were to expand the conversation beyond the scale of the satellite era,
00:24we are not yet in record territory in that context.
00:28In that context yet.
00:30So if we look back over the past hundred years, there was a year with no hurricanes until September 21st.
00:39That would take us to next Monday.
00:41And in 1941, our first hurricane of the year didn't form until September 21st.
00:47If we look at the entire record, we can go back to October 7th and 8th.
00:54It was technically the evening of October 7th in the U.S., October 8th, Greenwich Mean Time.
00:591905, when the first and only hurricane of that year formed.
01:03So that's technically the record for latest first hurricane.
01:07But if you consider two years in history with no hurricanes at all, 1907 and 1914, there were no known
01:14hurricanes those years.
01:15Well, back then, we didn't have this.
01:18We didn't have the benefit of satellite data.
01:19So who knows what we missed?
01:21And maybe we missed some storms in 1941 as well, as, again, it has been a remarkable year with no
01:29hurricanes to this point.
01:31We are tracking two areas of possible development.
01:34We have a medium chance out for this swirl and a low chance for actually a weak area of disturbed
01:42weather aloft, some energy aloft that's going to make a push all the way down into the gulf.
01:46You can see near the surface we have some showers east of Florida.
01:49But there's a disturbance up that way that has a low chance of development here in the days to come.
01:55You know, if you were to look at this and just kind of not look at the computer modeling and
02:00just look at the pattern, I see a cold front off the east coast.
02:04And this disturbance, one would assume, would not be hitting the U.S. or stay north of Bermuda because it
02:12would get hooked out to sea.
02:13In reality, when we look at the modeling, which I'm going to show you, it actually is likely to meander
02:19and drift southwest.
02:21So that's actually the most likely scenario here.
02:23Instead of being drawn north and shunted out to sea, it may drift southwest and stay kind of over no
02:28man's land south of Bermuda if it organizes, at least for a time.
02:33Now, with the disturbance moving southwestward into the area of Florida, there is the risk of some rip current.
02:40So that's a concern. It's been hot in the southeast. Extra people are swimming and so forth.
02:44I want to take you into the modeling here for a moment and show you how this all plays out.
02:50So here's our disturbance as we begin.
02:54Here's Bermuda, by the way. There's Bermuda.
02:56And here's the area of ambiguous low pressure that's not organized, but it could organize.
03:02And then we also have this jet stream energy, the trough that has split as part of the trough.
03:07It's been racing east, south of Iceland in the form of a cold front, but other energy is drifting southwest.
03:13And you can see the GFS, it kind of spins both of these up a little bit.
03:18Here we go to Friday.
03:18I want to press pause at a time when we have an almost closed contour both to the east and
03:25to the west over Florida.
03:26With the splitting trough, the trough that has split, making a little bit more of a push into the northeastern
03:33Gulf,
03:34and also that area of low pressure still, here's Bermuda in the box, east-southeast of Bermuda.
03:40Let's go forward in time.
03:42The GFS actually has a chance of this spinning up here and organizing south of the central Gulf Coast.
03:48It actually has a chance of both of these organizing.
03:50Here's your area of low pressure.
03:52This could become a depression by then, and also an area of low pressure over the central Gulf.
03:56The million-dollar question is, can this disturbance in the Gulf, this is next Monday,
04:01can it linger long enough to organize?
04:05Here's the NAM.
04:06This also kind of spins up a little bit.
04:08At least it remains a cohesive area of low pressure and becomes a bit more organized.
04:12The European says no.
04:14It moves into the area, and it never tightens up.
04:17It just kind of becomes disorganized and drifts back over land east of Tallahassee.
04:22The GFS AI makes a move in and also does become a system that may linger long enough,
04:28but it becomes weaker.
04:30The European AI makes a push farther south.
04:33It doesn't really organize.
04:35It kind of washes out.
04:36And then the Canadian also pushes down into parts of Florida,
04:40but never really fully makes it into the Caribbean or into the Gulf and stays a little farther east.
04:45So we'll keep an eye out for that.
04:47Before I move forward in modeling, let's go back to our graphics.
04:53And what I wanted to show you was...
04:59Forgive the flash there.
05:01The musical number here is about 48 hours.
05:04We would need this area of low pressure to sit over the northern Gulf
05:07for about 48 hours as a cohesive area of broad circulation for it to really tighten up.
05:12Will that happen?
05:13We are betting generally against it.
05:16We're betting against it, so we have a low risk.
05:18But there's a chance we still need to keep an eye on it.
05:20It's south of an area of high pressure aloft over the interior southeast,
05:24so it's under the belly of a ridge.
05:26It's just something we need to keep an eye on.
05:28Quick look at the main development region.
05:30It's still shut down for now.
05:31We've got dry, dusty air, and we also have a lot of wind shear,
05:35so no real prospects for development there.
05:38Into the Pacific we go, and Norbert is no longer a named tropical system.
05:45That's this area of extra clouds.
05:47That's going to send some rain to Honolulu and Hawaii, but no longer a true system.
05:51The only named system in the East Pacific right now is Tropical Depression 15E.
05:54It's battling some dry air.
05:55And then we're also going to keep an eye out for new development off to the south of Mexico
05:59that's currently still a little bit south of Central America.
06:03This guy has a good chance of organizing.
06:05We're going to go with a medium chance there.
06:07So former Norbert is going to bring some showers to Hawaii.
06:10We're not even officially calling it a tropical rainstorm.
06:13Tropical Depression 15E is battling some dry air.
06:16We'll keep an eye out for that.
06:18And you can see a medium chance of development south of Mexico in the days to come.
06:22I want to end quickly with a look at this.
06:25This is a problem for Japan next week.
06:28We're looking at a strengthening system that will likely bring very heavy rain to Japan.
06:34And they've had some exceptionally heavy rain out there lately.
06:36So here I'm just going to scoot ahead to the GFS rainfall forecast.
06:40Here comes this tropical system.
06:42And it may bring 5 to 10, maybe 12 inches of rain to Japan.
06:46It could be a near miss.
06:47Could make landfall.
06:47Still a long way to go Sunday and Monday.
06:49Okay.
Comments