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Tarcísio de Freitas deve ganhar a eleição para o governo de São Paulo no primeiro turno;
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00:00Hi, you're watching the Paulada na Cara channel, my name is Marco.
00:02Last week I was going to make a series of videos about voting intentions in the states, conducted by the Quest Institute.
00:08At the request of Grupo Globo, but I had some problems with my computer and couldn't do it.
00:12I am releasing today, Tuesday, the poll on voting intentions for governor, senate, and president of the republic.
00:19by the state of São Paulo, which was broadcast on Rede Globo on September 8th of last week.
00:24and it was available on the website, I think, starting on the 10th.
00:27This is the second round of polls for the first round.
00:301,800 interviews were conducted here in the state of São Paulo, with an estimated margin of error of two percentage points.
00:35either way, within a 95% confidence level.
00:37The data collection period was between September 4th and 7th, 2026.
00:41He already caught up in the Supreme Court's civil war, that whole mess involving André Mendonça and Alexandre de Moraes.
00:47As I already mentioned, the contracting party was Grupo Globo and it is registered with the TSE under the code BR-04705-2026.
00:58Here are the technical specifications, which I won't go into now because it would take too long and you won't...
01:05I want to know.
01:05First, let's look at spontaneous voting intentions for governor.
01:08Interestingly, only two candidates were mentioned spontaneously.
01:11Tarsísio, from the Republicanos party, had 21% on August 24th, and Fernando Haddad had 9%; undecided voters were 66%.
01:18And then, on September 7th, Tarsísio had 22%, Fernando Haddad had 10%, and 64% were undecided.
01:26Note the 12 percentage point difference between Tarsísio and Haddad.
01:30She'll stay, you'll see.
01:32That's where stimulated research comes in.
01:35On August 24th, Tarsísio had 40% of the intended votes.
01:38Fernando Haddad, 27%, police officer Edijani had 2%, Vera Lúcia 1%, Isadora Dias 1%, Carlos Machado 1%, and Vivian Mendes
01:461%.
01:47Undecided voters were 13%, while blank, null, or not voting accounted for 14%.
01:50On September 7th, Tarsísio rose to 42%, Fernando Haddad remained at 27%, and police officer Edijani fell to 1%.
01:58Vera Lúcia, Isadora Dias and Carlos Machado remained at 1%, Vivian Mendes, Tupi, at 0%.
02:03Undecided voters stood at 14%, blank or null votes at 13%.
02:06An important detail: Fernando Haddad, along with police officer Edijani, Vera Lúcia, Isadora Dias, and Carlos Machado,
02:13Together they have 31% of the vote in the first round.
02:16That's 11 percentage points less than Tarsísio.
02:19Remember when I said the 12 points would remain?
02:21It's going to stay like this the whole time, a 10, 12 point difference in favor of Tarsísio.
02:25Then we have the second-round simulation.
02:28In the second round, Tarsísio of the Republicanos party started the series in April with 49%, then dropped to 48%, and then to 47%.
02:36And now it has risen to 48%.
02:37Fernando Haddad had 32% in April, 32% in July, 30% in August, and now it has risen to 31%.
02:42Notice that there is a 17-point difference.
02:45However, the undecided voters fluctuated between 8 and 11 points, and are currently at 10.
02:50If Fernando Haddad adds those 10 percentage points in full, he will reach 41%.
02:56The difference is 7 percentage points.
02:57That's not going to happen, because it should actually be split, so again there should be that difference of about 12 points.
03:02percentages between the two.
03:04This suggests an easy victory for Tarsísio, most likely in the first round.
03:08This is terrible for Lula, because he loses his platform here.
03:11Fernando Haddad was a terrible mayor here in the city of São Paulo.
03:15He narrowly missed out on third place in his reelection campaign for mayor of São Paulo.
03:22place.
03:22In some neighborhoods here in the city of São Paulo, he came in second to Mata Suplicy, who had been mayor for some time.
03:28years earlier by the PT itself.
03:30In other words, the PT supporters in various neighborhoods wanted a candidate who had been a member of the PT, but they didn't want a...
03:35A guy who was from the Workers' Party and supported by Lula.
03:37He did so badly as mayor.
03:40And Tarsísio, in his first administration, had a 50% approval rating.
03:43Here, only 37% rejection.
03:46And Fernando Haddad is nearing 60%.
03:47And we have the intention of spontaneous voting for senator.
03:50Here you can see how weak our Senate candidates are here in the state of São Paulo.
03:55Marina Silva and Simone Tevich, who have both been presidential candidates, have 1.2% of voting intentions.
04:01Votes on August 24th.
04:03Guilherme Derrite, 2%, Ricardo Salles of Novo, 1%.
04:06André do Prado, from the PL party, 0%.
04:08On September 7th, Marina Silva rose to 3%, Simone Tevich rose to 3%, and Guilherme Derrite remained at 2%.
04:14André do Prado, from the PL party, rose to 1%, while Ricardo Salles remained at 0%.
04:17All other candidates received 0% in both rounds.
04:20Now, when we move on to stimulated reproduction, the scenario changes a bit.
04:24On August 24th, Marina Silva had 12%, as did Guilherme Derrite.
04:29Simone Tevich had 11%, André do Prado, from PL, had 7%.
04:32Ricardo Salles, from the Novo party, 4%.
04:35Geraldo Rufino and Soninha Francine, 2% each.
04:38Maíra de Souza, Dr. Eliana Ferreira, Gutskin Avento, Márcio Alves, and William Teixeira, 1% each.
04:44The rest, 0%.
04:46Undecided, 27%.
04:47Blank/Null votes will not be cast, 18%.
04:49You'll notice some very interesting percentages.
04:51Marina Silva, from the Rede party, had risen to 14% on September 7th.
04:55Guilherme Derrite, from the PP party, rose to 14%.
04:58Simone Tevich, from the PSB party, rose to 12%.
05:00André do Prado, from the PL party, remained at 7%.
05:03Then, Salles, from the Novo party, dropped from 4% to 3%.
05:06Geraldo Rufino, from Podemos, dropped from 2% to 1%.
05:09Soninha Francine, from Cidadania, dropped from 2% to 1%.
05:12Maíra de Souza, Dr. Eliana Ferreira, and Gutskin Avento all remained at 1%.
05:17The other candidates received zero, and those who had 0% remained at 0%.
05:20The number of undecided voters fell from 27% to 26%.
05:22However, the percentage of those voting blank or null has risen from 18% to 19%.
05:25What it means?
05:26This means that the most important candidates attracted votes to themselves.
05:30Because Marina Silva brought in 2 votes, Guilherme Derrite brought in 2, and Simone Tevich brought in 1 more.
05:35They pulled 5 percentage points ahead of the other candidates.
05:38They consolidated their power.
05:39And here's an interesting phenomenon, which will become very clear in the next graph.
05:44In São Paulo, Lula has two candidates: Marina Silva and Simone Tevich.
05:50In other words, here it's a case of combined voting.
05:51And the people on the left are running this coordinated vote.
05:53Guilherme Derrite, André do Prado, and Salles are all right-wing candidates.
05:58But Ricardo Salles is in the New Party.
06:00He is not Bolsonaro's political enemy, he is an adversary.
06:05There is no direct support.
06:06But since he was a minister in Jair Bolsonaro's government,
06:09He is getting votes and is stealing votes from Guilherme Derrite and André do Prado.
06:13Guilherme Derrite is from the PP party and was the Secretary of Public Security under Tarcísio de Freitas.
06:18And André do Prado, from the PL party, is also part of Tarcísio de Freitas's secretariat.
06:22The vote for them is not secured because of Ricardo Salles.
06:24And also, some of the undecided voters are people who are trying to find Bolsonaro's candidates.
06:30And they haven't found it, they haven't identified it yet.
06:32So this consolidation will probably happen a little later.
06:35If that doesn't happen, Marina Silva will get one spot, and Guilherme Derrite will most likely get another.
06:42Because, look, Marina Silva is the first choice of 17% of the electorate.
06:46Guilherme Derrite is the first choice for 20%.
06:49Simone Tevitt is the first choice for 15%.
06:52André do Prado is the first choice for 6%, and Ricardo Salles is the first choice for 2%.
06:56But when we get to the second vote, Marina Silva still has double digits, she maintains nine.
07:01Guilherme Derrite will have seven.
07:03That's why they both stand out, because they do well in both the first and second votes.
07:07Simone Tevitt remains in contention with the second vote, which has nine votes.
07:11André do Prado is the one with the problem, because he is the second most voted candidate for 7% of the candidates.
07:16of the voters, that is.
07:18But Ricardo Salles has four.
07:19This indicates that he is the second choice for a segment of the right-wing electorate.
07:24André do Prado needs to steal votes from Salles, to appear as an option, as the second, correct option, to Guilherme.
07:31Dermatitis.
07:32Otherwise, he's out.
07:33So, we'll probably have André do Prado trying to climb up here, and Simone Tevitt as well.
07:39The two are trying to associate their images, Marina Silva and Guilherme Derrite.
07:43Let's see what happens.
07:44This Senate election in São Paulo is going to be a very exciting final stretch.
07:49But we also have here the previous poll for president in the state of São Paulo, which will be updated now.
07:55On August 24th, Flávio Bolsonaro had 30% of the voting intentions, as did Lula.
07:59Augusto Cury had two, Pablo Marçal had four, Ronaldo Caiado three, Renan Santos from Missão three, Zema from Novo had
08:06one,
08:06Veterinarian Wilson Grácio, Democrat, one; Samara from UB, one; Edmilson Costa from PCB, one.
08:12Hertz Dias from PSTU, no, sorry, Edmilson Costa from PCB, zero, Hertz Dias from PSTU, zero.
08:17Clariana Barão from DC, zero, Rui Costa Pimenta from PCO, zero, Undecided, zero, 13%,
08:23Blank/Null votes will not be cast, 12%.
08:25On September 7th, interestingly, Flávio Bolsonaro's support increased from 30% to 31%.
08:29Lula remained static at 7%.
08:31The writer Augusto Cury rose from 2% to 5%, then from 2% to 7%, an increase of 5 points.
08:35Pablo Marçal maintained 4%, Ronaldo Caiado maintained 3%, Renan Santos of Missão dropped from 3% to 2%.
08:41Zema from Novo had one, kept one, all the others zeroed out.
08:44Undecided voters dropped from 13% to 12%, while those who will not vote (blank or null) decreased from 12% to 10%.
08:49In other words, Flávio Bolsonaro raised his vote slightly to round it off at 31%.
08:52Augusto Cury absorbed 5%, basically from those who were below him.
08:56This indicates that he absorbed a vote from the right, which was looking for a candidate.
09:02and I couldn't find a candidate, let's call them center-right,
09:06a more intellectual and moderate candidate.
09:10In scenario 2, Pablo Marçal is always in the running, but then his 4% is spread across all the other candidates.
09:15other candidates.
09:15Therefore, it becomes absolutely relevant in a first-round scenario.
09:19Then we have the scenario of a second round.
09:21Here are two very interesting movements that can be identified.
09:25In the first poll, in April, Flávio had 47%, and Lula had 35%.
09:29It was in April that the conversation between Flávio Bolsonaro and Vorcaro came to light.
09:35Asking for funding for his father's film.
09:38That in itself is not a crime, because it is a marketing action.
09:43He asked for sponsorship for a film that will be made in the United States.
09:47targeting a conservative American audience, by talking about a conservative South American family,
09:52who is a friend of the conservative American presidential family, which is the Trump family,
09:58And, as a bonus, they are openly aligned with Republican values.
10:03In other words, it's a niche film, a film made for the conservative Republican voter in the United States.
10:09So, it has a good chance of being profitable, because despite being a biographical film,
10:13It's a cheap movie.
10:14Cheap by American standards.
10:15For us it's very expensive, but by American standards it's cheap.
10:18So, I was running some simulations here,
10:19He must pay himself in American territory.
10:22And then the profit would come from promotion in the Brazilian market and on some streaming services.
10:28So, from their business perspective, it's a perfectly logical move by Vorcaro.
10:33But why didn't any other banker finance it?
10:35Do you understand the problem?
10:36It's a process that has behind-the-scenes political implications.
10:41Vorcaro probably agreed to do this under the table.
10:45without the other politicians knowing, at first,
10:48because he intended to have the Bolsonaro family up his sleeve.
10:53to ask for a favor next year, in case Flávio wins the election.
10:57If that happened, no crime was committed, because he hasn't made a request yet.
11:03He was probably planning on making that request next year.
11:07Most likely, there was a personal conversation between them.
11:12The favor would be returned, but it wasn't agreed how that would be done.
11:15And then Vorcaro ended up in prison, so there was no more discussion about the subject.
11:18I'm almost certain that's what happened.
11:21And the PT is desperate, because they must have discovered that there was some kind of agreement.
11:25But he is trying to find some proof of this possible agreement.
11:28which probably never went beyond a gentleman's agreement.
11:31Something you can arrange over coffee without making a phone call.
11:37Without exchanging messages, without doing anything, because it's something that incriminates them.
11:41And would it be quite logical to do it that way?
11:43Consider that Bolsonaro was being persecuted by the Supreme Court.
11:48because he is an enemy of a large portion of the Supreme Court justices.
11:51First.
11:52Secondly, Bolsonaro is a military man.
11:54Third, his son Eduardo, who is in the United States, is a former federal police officer.
11:59Flávio Bolsonaro is a lawyer.
12:00And if my memory serves me right, Carlos is also a lawyer.
12:02In other words, they know everything they shouldn't do to create grounds for generating evidence.
12:07for their political enemies.
12:08They learned what should be avoided.
12:11So, this type of evidence is unlikely to come up.
12:14Not to mention that the woman who is being called the film's producer here in Brazil,
12:19She is not a producer.
12:20She is a contractor.
12:22It's a third-party studio that did location recordings here.
12:24And it looks very much like it was a trap set for the people at the Supreme Federal Court.
12:29Because she has recordings of all the calls,
12:32all the calls that the STF staff made.
12:34Recording of a visit that was made to her.
12:37And she registered it at the notary's office.
12:38In other words, it was a very well-laid trap for anyone who came after her.
12:43She probably received that kind of guidance.
12:45And he applied everything.
12:46And Flávio Dino fell into the trap.
12:48He's going to end up being...
12:49His efforts will ultimately be wasted in this story.
12:52And this will have an impact on the electoral process in favor of Flávio Bolsonaro.
12:55and against Lula in the history of Vercado.
12:57And then there's the whole mess of the internal fight at the Supreme Federal Court.
13:02which is now being blamed on Lula as the real culprit in this whole story.
13:06Because he was the guarantor, in the end.
13:09than what the Supreme Court justices did.
13:12They summoned him to extract more money from him.
13:14Ah, but Lula has nothing to do with it.
13:15Well, the person who's in the presidency is the one who gets the blame.
13:17That should have...
13:18They had the police power to investigate and they didn't.
13:21That's the truth.
13:22So I did a little math on a piece of brown paper.
13:24In this scenario, with Flávio having 41% of the votes in the second round
13:29and Lula having 33%.
13:30Based on this ratio, Flávio would have 55.4% of the valid votes in the second round.
13:36In other words, despite all the PT's efforts to try and discredit Flávio,
13:39He would basically be going with his father's vote.
13:42which was 55.24% in the previous election.
13:45And Lula has the most tarnished image.
13:46With the potential for greater vote loss.
13:481% of the votes here in São Paulo
13:51That's roughly 250,000 to 260,000 votes in the second round.
13:56If Flávio wins 2% and Lula loses 2%,
13:59This means the difference that it was in the last election.
14:02between Jair Bolsonaro and Lula, with 700,000 votes.
14:05It could turn into a difference of 1.7 million votes between Flávio Bolsonaro and Lula.
14:11In other words, this eats up half of the difference that Lula had.
14:15under Jair Bolsonaro in the last election.
14:17only in the state of São Paulo.
14:18This only applies to the state of São Paulo.
14:19Not counting other states in the federation.
14:21And you overcome a 1 million vote deficit.
14:23That's a lot just considering the state of São Paulo.
14:26It makes a big difference.
14:27And finally, we have the rejection within the state of São Paulo.
14:30Within the state of São Paulo,
14:31Lula is rejected by 60% of voters who know him.
14:36While Flávio is rejected by 55%.
14:39Flávio is that first line and Lula is that second line.
14:41This indicates that Flávio Bolsonaro has a better chance.
14:44to grow in the state of São Paulo more than Lula.
14:46And here they are reporting a 5 percentage point difference.
14:49If it is confirmed that Flávio opened up a 2-point lead
14:52regarding the father's vote
14:55And Lula lost 2 points.
14:57is giving that kind of indication,
14:58Things are going to get really interesting in the second round.
15:00It's going to be a real free-for-all.
15:02He's going to treat everyone with his nerves on edge.
15:05It's going to be fun to follow along.
15:06If you've watched this far, thank you very much.
15:08Like, comment, share, help me with this channel project.
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