00:00Hi, you're watching the Palada na Cara channel. My name is Marco.
00:03Quest released a new poll today regarding the presidential election race.
00:10In the first round, Lula appears with 36, Flávio with 31, Augusto Cury with 7, and Renan with 4.
00:16Caiado also has 4%, and Zema sank to 1%.
00:21I'll talk a little more about this research, in detail.
00:25In the second round, Flávio appears ahead of Lula.
00:30Yes, my dear, things are getting ugly, you know?
00:34Here on the G1 website, which was commissioned by Grupo Globo,
00:38In relation to the previous survey, from the 7th, Lula maintained his 36%.
00:43Flávio's score fluctuated from 29 to 31, meaning Flávio's score increased by 2 points.
00:46The gap between the two narrowed from 7 to 5 percentage points.
00:51Cury's score fluctuated from 8 to 7, while the others remained more or less the same.
00:55In the second-round simulation, Flávio appears numerically ahead of Lula.
00:58which hadn't happened since April.
01:00In the Quest poll, in a statistical tie, Flávio has 42% compared to Lula's 40%.
01:06The transfer of votes from Cury, Renan, and Caiado favors Flávio and Bolsonaro in the second round.
01:10An aggravating factor.
01:1150% of voters currently disapprove of Lula's government.
01:15Approximately 43% approve.
01:16The numbers are the same as in the previous survey, from a week ago.
01:2044% say they are more afraid of Lula's reelection, and 42% say the worst thing would be his return.
01:24From the Bolsonaro family to power.
01:25Up to this point, there isn't much difference.
01:27What changes is that last item.
01:3031% cite violence as the main problem in Brazil.
01:33And concern about corruption has increased, with the topic appearing in second place at 22%.
01:39It was 14% in the previous interview.
01:42All of this is contingent on what happens in the Supreme Court's civil war, to which Lula is inextricably linked.
01:49Alexandre de Moraes.
01:50Here are the first-round numbers from the prompted survey, which is when you present the candidates' names.
01:55Lula was 36 and is now 36.
01:58Flávio Bolsonaro is 31.
01:59There were 29.
02:00Augusto Cury has 7.
02:02There were 8.
02:02Keep in mind that this is a two percentage point difference.
02:06Renan Santos has 4.
02:07There were 3.
02:08Ronaldo Caiado has 4.
02:09There were 3.
02:10Meuzema has 1.
02:11There were 2.
02:12And what about the other candidates?
02:130.
02:14Undecided voters: 10% in both polls.
02:16Will a blank vote mean no one will vote?
02:187.
02:19There were 8.
02:19What are your voting intentions for president in the first round?
02:21Notice that Flávio's support increased from 29% to 31%.
02:25Lula's approval rating dropped from 37% to 36%.
02:27Variations within the margin of error.
02:29But previously, the difference between the two was 8 points.
02:33Now it's 5.
02:34Professor Felipe Nunes analyzed the Coaest poll for president on September 14th.
02:39Pay attention to the voting intentions.
02:41The race between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro to reach the second round has been between them since January of this year.
02:46When did the campaign begin...?
02:47No campaign.
02:48When the year began, Lula had 45% of the voting intentions.
02:51Flávio had 38%.
02:52The difference in the second round was 7 percentage points.
02:55A very small difference.
02:56Then it started falling apart.
02:57It even reversed in April.
03:00When Lula had 40%, Flávio had 42%.
03:03That's when those stories about Flávio asking Vorcaro for money started.
03:07Up to that point, there's no problem.
03:08Because Vorcaro had this internal procedure...
03:12This is the way of operating from within Brasília.
03:13From giving money to politicians here and politicians there.
03:18Always sponsoring things that are in the politicians' interest.
03:23The problem is when the trade-off comes.
03:25So far, no quid pro quo has been proven from the Bolsonaro family.
03:30Which indicates it's a legitimate investment.
03:33Because it's an American film, made by an American audience.
03:36From a family allied with the Republicans.
03:39So it's going to be a movie that will be shown in theaters.
03:43Which primarily serves the Republican population of the United States.
03:48The conservative voter.
03:50That's roughly 25% of the total American population.
03:54Oh no, but wait a minute.
03:55In the United States, 50% of the votes went to the Republicans.
03:59Yes.
03:59But half of the American population abstains from voting.
04:01That's the truth.
04:02It's a quarter of the republican population.
04:04One quarter are Democrats.
04:06And it's only about 5% to 10% who meddle in the audacity of deciding who will run the country.
04:10So that's more or less it.
04:11So a film was made for the Republican audience.
04:14From a family allied with the Trump family.
04:17So that's the marketing slogan.
04:18The film should recoup its costs in the United States.
04:22Because it even features a very well-known actor.
04:23It's a very well-known American film.
04:25Including a very famous actor from the United States.
04:27Jim Caviezel.
04:28I'm checking it out.
04:29I took a look at my cheat sheet here on Wikipedia.
04:32Where Jim Caviezel, among other things, starred in The Passion of the Christ in 2002.
04:38What Hollywood did, the public loved, but Hollywood hated.
04:41Because Hollywood hates religious themes.
04:45So he became somewhat segregated.
04:47And he's a Republican.
04:49So he was kind of segregated.
04:51He became a niche actor.
04:53But a niche actor with several hits.
04:55So that's what they were betting on initially.
04:58An investment to make some money.
05:00It's okay until it's too late.
05:01The point is that there was probably a gentleman's agreement.
05:07Between Flávio Bolsonaro.
05:08Among the Bolsonaro family, actually.
05:10And the owner of Banco Master.
05:13But they haven't found any proof yet.
05:15It was probably an agreement made in a whisper.
05:20Oh, let's try to make some money here.
05:22But if everything goes well, I'll do such and such for you at the presidential palace if I get there.
05:27That was probably the agreement reached.
05:29So, they focused on making money from the film first.
05:32And then, the Bolsonaro family will do him a favor.
05:36If that happened, there is no proof of a crime.
05:39Because nothing was done.
05:40Ah, but that was intentional.
05:41My son, I intend to have a fling with my hot neighbor.
05:44But that doesn't make me guilty.
05:45Especially because she looks at me and says...
05:47An ugly old man turns his back on me as he walks away, you know?
05:50In other words, having the intention is not a crime.
05:53The crime is when you start doing anything.
05:56There's probably only hearsay and nothing concrete.
05:59And the PT is desperate to find something factual.
06:02A document, a recorded conversation, a message.
06:06Something the Bolsonaro family is unlikely to do.
06:08Because the father is in the military.
06:10One of my brothers was a federal police officer.
06:12The other one is a lawyer.
06:14I think the other two are lawyers.
06:16In other words, they know what not to do to generate evidence.
06:20So, they'll probably just be searching in vain.
06:21Nothing will happen.
06:22Oh, you think there would be a counterpart?
06:24I believe I would have.
06:25I believe I would have.
06:26Something would be done in Borcaro's favor.
06:30But nothing was done.
06:32Nothing was planned.
06:33It was probably just a promise.
06:34So, the PT (Workers' Party) is desperately trying to find something to throw against Flávio.
06:37And he's not finding anything.
06:38But a lot of things from the Supreme Federal Court are hitting Lula hard.
06:42And Lula can't separate his image from the image of the Supreme Federal Court.
06:46Primarily from Alexandre de Moraes.
06:47And that's working against us.
06:48And then comes this turning point.
06:49In April, May, the turning point occurred.
06:52Where Flávio was in front and Lula was behind.
06:53That's when it changed.
06:54Lula even scored 45, 37.
06:56In other words, it's back to the situation it was in January.
06:58And now it's back to the situation it was in April.
07:01Where Flávio is 42 and Lula is 40.
07:03But the political and economic news about Lula is terrible.
07:07Everyone associates the crisis at Casas Bahia, Habib's, and other large retailers with Lula.
07:13It doesn't associate with Flavio.
07:14And then, on top of that, there's the issue of the Supreme Federal Court.
07:16And then there are the agendas.
07:17They are turning to the second round.
07:19Extremely damaging guidelines.
07:21Lula's victory is becoming increasingly unlikely.
07:24This is something that will be fun to watch during the second round of the campaign.
07:27Okay, guys.
07:28I'll leave the G1 links in the pinned comment and in the video description.
07:33So that's it.
07:34Please like, comment, and share.
07:36Help me with this project.
07:38Until later.
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