00:00In this video, we're going to talk about the CNT-MDA poll, covering both the first and second rounds of voting.
00:04This institute is more biased towards the left, due to its sampling.
00:09But even so, we can still see the voting trends when considering both the first and second rounds.
00:14This research, which is on the exame.com website, shows President Lula still leading, by a good margin, in
00:21first round.
00:22In this poll released on Tuesday the 15th, the Workers' Party candidate registers 40.5% of the voting intentions for first place.
00:28shift.
00:28Flávio, on the other hand, appears with 30.4% of the preference.
00:32Compared to the institute's previous survey, President Lula lost 2 percentage points.
00:38This fluctuation falls within the margin of error for this survey, which is 2.2 percentage points.
00:43Flávio Bolsonaro grew by 1%, Flávio Bolsonaro grew by 1 percentage point.
00:47This means there was a variation of 3 percentage points.
00:50The difference has shrunk by slightly more than the margin of error, indicating a trend towards convergence.
00:56two.
00:56Among the other candidates, Augusto Cury scores 6%, Ronaldo Caiado 3%, and Renan Dumissão 2.7%.
01:04Pablo Marçal, whose candidacy was revoked, has 1.8%, and Zema, poor Zema, 1%.
01:09The other candidates together account for 1.1%.
01:12Blank and null votes: 6%, undecided: 7.5%.
01:15Note that voter turnout in the first round is expected to be around 20%.
01:19Abstention rates in the second round typically rise, usually going closer to 25%.
01:23In other words, in the sampling, they are overreporting the candidates and underreporting the abstentions that will occur.
01:31That's why I say it's possible to identify the trend, even if the research doesn't provide certainty.
01:36Each person's vote.
01:37In this poll, Flávio Bolsonaro is rejected by 44.2% of voters, while Lula is rejected by 41.1%.
01:44The others registered rejection rates below 3%.
01:47And I can say without fear of being wrong that Ronaldo Caiado, with 40 years of career, having been governor, senator,
01:54government leader, opposition leader,
01:56He has a higher rejection rate.
01:57This alone indicates that the research has a trend.
02:02The survey also highlighted the voting potential, in which the Workers' Party candidate has 51.9% of voters who would vote for him.
02:08or they could vote for him,
02:09compared to Flávio Bolsonaro's 42.7%.
02:12All other research institutes indicate a much narrower margin.
02:15And several indications suggest that Flávio is slightly ahead of Lula.
02:19In this analysis, Renan Santos is the candidate with the lowest potential for votes.
02:2321.4%.
02:24Yes, indeed.
02:25Based on the debate that has taken place, and the interviews he has given, he is the crazy kid of this election.
02:29So nobody is taking him seriously.
02:31Thus, and he is also the least known, he is the one that people know the least about.
02:3441.2%.
02:35However, he has a higher level of voters who know him and wouldn't vote for him than Cury, Caiado, and Zema.
02:40reaching 36.1%.
02:41The survey also measured perceptions of the current government.
02:45Negative ratings reached 39.4% (bad and terrible), compared to 33.8% (positive ratings).
02:52Excellent and good, and 25.4% consider the management to be average.
02:55Regarding President Lula's performance in office, 49.7% disapprove of his actions, while 45.9% approve.
03:01I've seen other polls where the government's approval rating is more or less along those lines, yes.
03:06And President Lula's approval rating is more or less balanced between those who approve and those who disapprove.
03:11or slightly ahead of those who disapprove.
03:13This indicates that a large part of the methodology is correct compared to what others have done.
03:18The interpretation of the vote is not good.
03:20The detailed demographic analysis from the first round reveals local pockets of strength where Lula is doing very well, right?
03:26In the Northeast, he reaches 56% compared to Flávio's 22%.
03:29And among the electorate with lower incomes, up to 2 minimum wages, the figure is 47% against 24%.
03:33The Workers' Party candidate also leads among Catholics, with 44% to 28%.
03:37That last one really forced the friendship, huh?
03:39That Lula gets more votes among Catholics than Flávio is undeniable.
03:42That the Workers' Party (PT) has a lot of power within the Catholic Church.
03:44But it's not quite a 2-for-1, no.
03:45It's much, much more even.
03:47On the other hand, the PL candidate reports his best performance among evangelical voters.
03:50Where does Flávio score points?
03:52With 40%, surpassing the 31% of the Workers' Party candidate.
03:54Flávio's story is already more prominent here than what is being presented here.
03:58Why?
03:59The evangelical electorate is extremely anti-PT (Workers' Party) and anti-Marxist.
04:04It's an ideological thing among Pentecostal evangelicals.
04:07They are the overwhelming majority of Protestants in Brazil.
04:09And Lula having 31% is more or less that.
04:12I would say it's a little less.
04:13I would say that the reading habits of evangelicals would be more similar to what this research indicates.
04:19for Catholics.
04:20And the Catholic one would be more similar to that of the Evangelicals.
04:24In other words, it's as if the data has been reversed.
04:26The survey interviewed 2,002 voters between September 9th and 13th.
04:30With in-person interviews, which are conducted at homes and in high-traffic areas.
04:34The margin of error is 2.2 percentage points.
04:36The problem here, in this research, and this is where I say it's biased.
04:40First, proportionally it affects more older people.
04:43Older voters are more likely to vote for Lula.
04:45Retired electorate.
04:46Despite the INSS scandal.
04:47That's why the INSS scandal hurts the PT so much.
04:49And on the other hand, it goes with the flow.
04:50Who is it that the interviewer is often looking for in the flow of conversation?
04:54And I've worked with other research institutes doing censuses in the streets.
04:58Doing research.
04:59It's normal, especially for younger interviewers.
05:01He will look for another interviewer with a profile similar to his own.
05:04Like, he's not going to pick it up, he's going to...
05:05Oh, I need to interview a college-aged guy.
05:09Legal.
05:10Ali, aged 18 to 24.
05:13He's not going to do an interview in the middle of a bunch of math and science students.
05:16Among the economics and administration crowd.
05:18He's all about the lyrics.
05:20He's into philosophy.
05:22Go with the story's crew.
05:23Did you understand?
05:24So, like, two researchers in one state already changes the whole scenario.
05:29If you have a national survey of this size,
05:31If you have four or five, your research is already going to fail.
05:35So, it's extremely complicated when you have this double parameter.
05:39When you don't have household surveys, you only have point-of-flow surveys.
05:42The older interviewer wants to find out who will answer the survey.
05:45He doesn't care if the guy has a profile similar to his own.
05:49or whoever is most likely to respond.
05:50He wants to find someone who will answer.
05:51So, it gets closer to ideal.
05:53But a second-round poll was also conducted.
05:55In the second round, Lula has 47.3% of the voting intentions.
05:59For Bolsonaro, 40%.
06:01However, nevertheless, yet, but...
06:04This research points to something very interesting.
06:06Against Flávio, Lula registers 47.3%.
06:09Against 40%.
06:10Blank and invalid votes total 10.2%.
06:12While 2.5% of respondents expressed indecision.
06:15Again, this research has a methodological problem.
06:18She's overvaluing those who declare their voting intentions.
06:21And it's downplaying potential abstentions.
06:24Like this?
06:24Abstention rates in the second round typically approach 25% nationally.
06:29If we add up blank votes, null votes, and undecided voters, in this poll it doesn't even reach 13%.
06:33In other words, we are giving the candidates 10% more voting intention in the second round.
06:38Oh, you think Lula isn't in the lead?
06:40No, I think the difference is numerically smaller.
06:42The proportion might be even greater, but I think it's smaller.
06:44Precisely because of these extra votes that are being given to them.
06:47So, this reading of the voting intentions in the second round is very discrepant.
06:52You're not saying that everyone is indicating a technical tie.
06:54This is completely beyond a technical draw.
06:56But, as I said, voting trends are what you can read in any polling institute.
07:02In the month that separates this survey from the institute's last release,
07:05Lula's support declined by one point.
07:07Flávio gained one point.
07:08Since June, the Workers' Party candidate has lost three points.
07:11While the senator grew three.
07:12Do you understand?
07:13The trend of rapprochement continues.
07:15This occurs due to two factors.
07:16First, the refinement of the research method, with the tendency for the two to actually converge.
07:22If you were to observe a survey evaluator, or rather, a trend analyst,
07:27This iris pattern is a predictor in research and indicates trends.
07:34It's indicating a slight advantage to the right at the moment, with Flávio in the lead.
07:39Why is that?
07:40Because, on average across all institutes, Flávio is currently in the lead.
07:44That's why there's a slight advantage to the right.
07:45This research is what we call an outlier, right?
07:48Or he's not an outsider.
07:49It's another name that's given to it.
07:50This research stands out from the majority.
07:53But even she indicates, as shown in the graph in the article,
07:58that the two candidates were once further apart and that now they are slowly getting closer.
08:03I believe that this institute, in the second round, will be more or less aligned with the others.
08:07So, that's the trend.
08:08It's about Flávio and Lula going to the second round and the two of them competing for the election vote by vote.
08:13This survey was registered with the TSE (Superior Electoral Court), under code BR06902-2026.
08:22If you've made it this far, thank you.
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