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Neste vídeo faço uma analise de dados da pesquisa Btg Nexus do dia 08 de setembro
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00:00Hello, you are on the Palada na Cara channel.
00:02In this video I'm going to talk about the Nexus research, which came out yesterday.
00:07It is available on the website nexus.fsb.com.br.
00:13I'll leave the link in the video description on YouTube and Dailymotion.
00:17They were voters aged 16 or older.
00:19The number of municipalities is not specified here, but the survey was conducted by telephone between the 4th and
00:27September 7th.
00:28She caught the very beginning of this civil war at the Supreme Federal Court.
00:33So, let's see how the research has progressed so far.
00:38In the total sample, we have 53% of the population expressing a strong interest in the 2026 elections.
00:47and 24% with reasonable interest.
00:50This brings us to the fact that 77% of Brazilians, or 3 out of every 4, are interested in the electoral process.
00:57That's roughly the voter turnout rate in the first round of the last elections.
01:04And when we delve a little further into the research, that's when the question arises.
01:10Will you be showing up in the first round of this election?
01:14So, 87% say they've already decided they're going to show up to vote.
01:17We know it's not all that great.
01:19Because some people are going to travel, and they think Sunday will be a beautiful day, so they won't vote.
01:24Or that, suddenly, the candidate who was interested in voting withdrew from the election, or had some problem.
01:31Did you understand?
01:32In other words, 10 percentage points will disappear.
01:35Those 94% here aren't going to happen.
01:38Because there are those 7% who will probably show up to vote.
01:43Only one of the two is 94%.
01:44This shouldn't happen.
01:45We're likely to have around 20-25% of voters deciding not to vote at the last minute.
01:52In the first round.
01:53In the second round, under normal circumstances, this rate even increases slightly.
01:58And if we're going to compare, basically, the last six months,
02:01The statement on BTG Pactual Nexus has always been this.
02:0895%, 93%, 94% even reached peaks here at 96%, at 97%, but we can consider 94%, 95% here.
02:17% declared.
02:18Because, again, it won't make sense since voting in Brazil is mandatory.
02:27But the fine for not showing up is less than R$4.00.
02:31So, many people justify it.
02:34Nowadays, you can simply justify your absence with the digital voter registration card here on your phone, you know?
02:44You give Miguel the gift and then you don't go.
02:45And that could weigh on some candidates.
02:48That's something we'll take a closer look at later.
02:50This is where the interesting part begins for most people.
02:53Spontaneous vote for President of the Republic.
02:56Let's make this perfectly clear.
02:58This electoral profile is created through phone call sampling.
03:02It's not a researcher from the Institute approaching people at the prison gate, at the union headquarters,
03:11at the bank exit.
03:13No.
03:14It's by phone.
03:15If you can't, move on to the next one, until you fill out all the desired profiles.
03:20In spontaneous voting, Lula appears with 39% of voting intention.
03:24Absolutely normal.
03:25He was president of the Republic three times and, on two occasions, he elected Dilma, who was his successor.
03:31In other words, he participated in five winning campaigns, in addition to three that he lost.
03:36A total of eight campaigns.
03:38Wow, that's quite a lot, isn't it?
03:39All Brazilians know him, actually.
03:42Sometimes someone mentions Miguel and says they don't know him, but that's impossible.
03:44Flávio Bolsonaro, 31%.
03:47Absolutely normal.
03:47He is inheriting the votes of his father, who, despite everything, lost the last election.
03:53The president, during the reelection process, had a relatively high approval rating.
03:58Ah, but he lost the election, or something like that.
03:59Oh yes.
04:00But if we look at the ideological vote, he won.
04:04Because he elected more senators and more governors than Lula.
04:09In other words, the ideological vote won.
04:10In the personalized vote, that is, the vote for the character, Lula had a slight advantage.
04:16Then came the writer Augusto Cury, who caters to those who want a more intellectual president.
04:22Renan Santos, who basically caters to the pretentious, rebellious internet crowd.
04:27Ronaldo Caiá, for the crowd basically from the Midwest.
04:31And Zema, in my opinion, is the biggest disappointment, because he is a governor.
04:36with a very high approval rating in Brazil's second largest electoral college,
04:40which is Minas Gerais, and it has a concept of voting intention.
04:43That's because he has a very good internet campaign.
04:47That series he did, The Untamed, has a very high audience on social media.
04:52He can't convert votes for himself.
04:54I believe that his absence from the Bandeirantes debate greatly damaged his image.
05:00Because he could speak, many of his voters, the majority of Zema's voters,
05:04They don't follow the election schedule, so there are many people who don't even know who the candidates are.
05:08He missed his opportunity there, and I would say that's the biggest disappointment.
05:12I believed he would be taking Augusto Cury's place.
05:15The others added up to 1 out of 100, no blanks or invalid votes totaled 6, don't know/no answer totaled 11.
05:20If we add the 11 from 100, "don't know," "no answer," and the 6 from "no blank" and "no null,"
05:26That's 17%.
05:27This is less than the total number of abstentions.
05:30Again, abstentions should easily surpass 20%.
05:34Here, I'm not going to talk about all the candidates, because that would be impossible.
05:39I'm going to talk about three tracks here that stand out more, which will be easier for you to see.
05:45The first little red stripe here is for Lula, his voting intention.
05:4832% here was when he started.
05:51If 32%, then 33% are voters for the character Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.
05:57It doesn't matter if he's running for election, or if he's running someone he nominated,
06:03Whether it's election time, whether he can be a candidate or not, is irrelevant.
06:09It's the fan-voter.
06:11Oh, who do you vote for? Lula.
06:12Well, in his mind, only Lula exists, nobody else.
06:1532%.
06:16That was on March 30th.
06:17Then came the other polls, it went to 32, 36, 38, blah blah blah, and now it's at 39.
06:22Here, he has the vote of Lula's voters, those fan-supporting voters, and he has the left-wing voter.
06:31who learned that Lula was a candidate and decided to vote for him.
06:35Of course, there are always some who were warned and wanted to vote for him, but didn't know he was going to be a candidate.
06:40They were undecided, and decided to declare their vote now.
06:42The 26%, on the other hand, that belongs to Flávio Bolsonaro, doesn't belong to Flávio Bolsonaro, it belongs to the real Bolsonaro.
06:49Oh, and you're a Bolsonaro supporter?
06:50No, I'm not.
06:50I didn't have either of them as candidates either, but, however, nevertheless, yet,
06:55I have to admit defeat.
06:56The real Bolsonaro is the father, it's Jair.
07:00So, that 26% is the same story.
07:02It's the vote of the fan, of the Bolsonaro supporter, who, as you can see, hasn't signed it by May 25th.
07:09It was 26, 26, 26, which is the Bolsonaro voter, that is, one in four Brazilians.
07:14The person who will vote is a Bolsonaro supporter.
07:17So, you can see that it took him a while to leave that house with 26, 27%.
07:22It only really took off in August, when the campaign truly started to gain momentum.
07:28Then it went up from 28 to 31.
07:30And in this story, you have this little gray strip here, which is even a bit hard to see, from the recording.
07:34These are... these are the people who don't know and didn't answer.
07:38Those idiots, right?
07:39They were at 30% because they wanted to see who the candidates were, and today, in this poll, they're at 11%.
07:44This one sums up what happened pretty well.
07:47Those who were undecided, or rather, who didn't know who the available candidates were.
07:52to vote, but the majority migrated to Lula, to Flávio Bolsonaro and, incredibly,
07:57Down here, this little pink stripe has moved to Augusto Culli.
08:01In the previous poll, he had 8%, but now he has 6%.
08:04So, the other candidates simply haven't fluctuated since June 29th.
08:11Because on June 29th, the percentage was 6%, with no blank or invalid votes.
08:14Here's 6%.
08:15And the others, on June 29th they were at 9%, now they're at 8%.
08:20In other words, they did not fluctuate.
08:22The fluctuation that occurred here was a sample fluctuation; there was no gain or effort involved.
08:28They remained more or less the same.
08:29Only Augusto Culli stood out.
08:32Then, when we move on to the scenario of stimulated voting, the one that is presented...
08:38The candidates, more names appear, because we have to talk about everyone who is running.
08:43So, Lula remains at 39%, and it's worth noting that his approval rating doesn't fluctuate.
08:47Flávio Bolsonaro's support rises to 35%, representing that right-wing voter base that was expecting...
08:51If a right-wing candidate were to appear, I would root for Caiado, and especially for Zema.
08:57They went up and it didn't go up, they shifted their voting declaration to Flávio Bolsonaro.
09:00Augusto Culli appeared with 9%, more stimulated.
09:04Flávio Bolsonaro maintains 4%, Renançando maintains 4%, Zema is now at 1%.
09:08Tamara and Luí Costa Pimenta appear with 1%.
09:10And if you heard any knocking, my neighbor is renovating his apartment.
09:14His is up here, okay?
09:15So, there are some knocks happening, even though I hear them from time to time.
09:18Well, here we go to a scenario that I think turned out interesting.
09:21Stimulated voting intention in the second round.
09:23First round, second round, Flávio has 46% of voting intention, Lula has 45%.
09:29Here he is numerically behind, by 1 percentage point.
09:32Lula won by 1.8 percentage points in the previous election.
09:34In other words, it's within the margin of error, plus or minus.
09:37Against Ronaldo Caiado, Lula has 46%, Caiado has 43%.
09:41Again, margin of error.
09:43In other words, Lula is more or less at his ceiling, 45%, 46%.
09:45Lula versus Zema.
09:47Zema has 40%, Lula 47%.
09:49Lula versus Renançando.
09:51Lula has 47%, Renançando has 39%.
09:54Look, Flávio, Caiado, Zema, and Renan are declaring themselves right-wing candidates.
10:00In other words, the right wing, at worst, could get 39% of the valid votes in the second round.
10:04But look at the last one.
10:05The writer Augusto Cury.
10:06Come on, I was talking about a left wing that, to me, seems social-democratic.
10:09The left, therefore, is quite moderate, leaning heavily towards 100%.
10:11He has 45%, Lula has 43%.
10:13It is he who has the biggest advantage.
10:14Oh, you like him?
10:15No.
10:16But this is a sign of the population's yearning, including within the left, for someone different.
10:23Because it's Lula's worst vote count, 43%.
10:25But some on the left also want something different.
10:28And then he would lift up all, practically all, of Flávio Bolsonaro's or Caiado's electorate.
10:36which has generated 43%, 46% there.
10:38This demonstrates the weariness with the figure of Lula and, especially, with the PT (Workers' Party).
10:43And if you really think about it, nobody has Jair Bolsonaro's charisma either.
10:46Let's be honest.
10:47The old guard knows how to get the crowd going.
10:51Here, the historical series always shows the scenario for the second round.
10:56In the first partial count on March 30th, Lula and Flávio had 46%.
11:01Then Lula and Flávio, Lula 46%, Flávio 45%.
11:04The one with the greatest distance was on June 15th.
11:08Lula 49%, Flávio 43%.
11:11Then he squeezed it again.
11:12Now it's reversed.
11:13Flávio 46%, Lula 45%.
11:15Do you see hope emerging for someone?
11:17No, I don't see anyone entering here into wisdom.
11:20And I also don't know who could be president of the Republic at this moment.
11:23This graph, and these next two graphs, I'm going to show you, are more for curiosity's sake.
11:27You have the die-hard lunatic, who is the guy who votes for the character.
11:32In red, you have the people who vote for Lula.
11:35In blue, the people who vote for Flávio Bolsonaro.
11:37It's weird, isn't it?
11:38Well, there is the phenomenon of the Bolsonaro-Lula vote.
11:42That is, voting for the candidate with the best chance of winning the election.
11:46It's not about voting for the best politician, the best proposal, or the most interesting ideology.
11:51No, it's the guy who votes, so to speak, for whoever is in the lead.
11:55In this scenario, among the confirmed lunatics, you have 83%, as of March 30th.
12:00And now, 91% of the votes have been decided.
12:02Then the rest, in March, 15% of those so-called convinced lunatics.
12:06I would vote for Flávio Bolsonaro because they, this segment of the population, see Flávio Bolsonaro as equal to Lula.
12:12And now, after the damage to the list from the election campaign on radio and TV, it has dropped to eight.
12:18But still, there are a lot of people who see Lula and Bolsonaro as being basically the same thing.
12:23Among those who see Lula as an alternative, 73% would vote for him on March 30th.
12:29This figure fell to 68%, a drop of 5 percentage points.
12:32And it has remained solid, below 70% since July 27th, almost consistently.
12:38It wasn't until August 10th that it went up slightly to 80%.
12:41And what about Flavio? Flavio's spinning around here.
12:43It started at 13%, reached 24%, fell to 18%, hit 30% on August 3rd, and now it is...
12:5021%.
12:51They realize that, on the side of the people who say they will vote for Lula, there is a segment of the electorate.
12:56Those who vote for Lula, but actually vote for Bolsonaro, because they vote for a political figurehead and not a politician.
13:01Vote based on image and image, not on the proposal, the history, or anything similar.
13:06It's a huge Brazil, my dear. It's a huge Brazil.
13:09And why did I mention the next two slides?
13:11Because the second slide is number 57.
13:13He is talking about the staunch Bolsonaro supporter and Bolsonaro as an alternative.
13:16The same phenomenon, with similar rates, even.
13:20Of the most committed Bolsonaro supporters, 77% declared they would vote for Plávio on March 30th.
13:2621% declared their support for Lula.
13:28It's complicated, given this level of dependency, to make this type of electoral proposal.
13:32With the election campaign on radio and TV, these figures rose to 85% among staunch Bolsonaro supporters.
13:40declaring their vote for Plávio and 14% still declaring their vote for Lula.
13:45And those who see Bolsonaro as an alternative started with 77% and are now at 78%.
13:51In other words, almost nothing has changed here.
13:53What fluctuated was the number of people who declared they would vote for Lula, even though Plávio was there.
13:58with the option, which was 17% on March 30, reached 28% on July 27 and with
14:05the campaign
14:05On radio and TV, it gave a 12 rating.
14:07None of the whites in Lula's case, in Plávio's, disappeared.
14:09Because Plávio's pre-campaign is not a good sign, because it means people are giving up.
14:13Regarding voting, it could be the people who see Plávio as an alternative who are declaring...
14:18That's true, but if you're going to vote for Plávio, it might be a shameful vote.
14:20I believe.
14:20Marcão, can you believe that?
14:23Metsu Calabresa, Metsu Montarela, I don't know, you know?
14:26I believe that the majority will, in fact, abandon Plávio Bolsonaro in the second round.
14:33I think they'll vote in the first round, whether it's for congressman, senator, governor, or representative.
14:37state.
14:38And in the second round, if there aren't enough votes for governor either, they simply won't...
14:42They will attend.
14:43I think that's what's going to happen.
14:44So, it's possible to have a relatively high abstention rate, for example, in São Paulo.
14:48Because in São Paulo, Tarciso is doing very well in the polls and could win first place.
14:51shift.
14:52Perhaps it's worse for Plávio not to have his voters, who see him as an alternative.
15:00I'm going to vote for him and the gubernatorial candidate, in Tarciso's case, rather than just having him.
15:06So, if I just want to say, "Oh, I'm not going to vote," and everything else I wanted to say...
15:08I think he won.
15:09So, this scenario might be worse for him.
15:12Let's wait and see.
15:13I think Lula's chances of winning are still slightly higher than Plávio's, but I
15:18In short, Lula has a great chance if this SPF deal lasts until the second round.
15:26And this whole thing could last more than a month, which would be fatally damaging to me.
15:30His campaign, his reelection.
15:34Speaking of TV, here's something interesting.
15:37Audience during free election broadcast time on radio and television.
15:40So the question was, since August 28th, has the free election broadcast time on the radio begun?
15:44or on television.
15:46Have you seen the campaign proposals of any of the presidential candidates?
15:49Free on radio or television?
15:51Reading is encouraged through the options.
15:53On TV alone, 34%.
15:54On the radio alone, 3%.
15:56Yes, on television and radio, 8%.
15:58This gave the audience 45%.
16:0045% for the electoral process.
16:0154%.
16:02Turn off the TV, go to Netflix, come to YouTube, go to Twitter, go play games.
16:08Dominoes, go wash the dishes.
16:10Do anything and you won't be watching the free election broadcast radio.
16:13I'll tell you something.
16:13The last time I watched the free election broadcast was in 2006.
16:19I think it was in 2006.
16:20And I watched it just to see, with my friends from college, to see who the candidates were.
16:27a state representative and a federal representative here in São Paulo.
16:30We would look at each other and say, "Oh my God, how awful!"
16:33We're screwed.
16:33Because one thing was more outrageous than the other.
16:37Each figure there.
16:38One of the most serious candidates I've seen was the clown Tiririca.
16:42At least he wasn't trying to be serious or trying to be a clown.
16:44He was indeed a clown, period.
16:46It's a truly remarkable thing.
16:47There were very few candidates you could take even remotely seriously.
16:51This is one of the reasons why traditional politicians are so keen on censorship.
16:55social media and limiting the reach of streaming services, such as Netflix, Amazon Prime, among others.
17:01others.
17:02It's to force the public to return to radio and television, where there is advertising during
17:08The entire year of politicians who are in power.
17:11The way you try to perpetuate your electoral power.
17:14And here is the sample profile.
17:16Overall, the profile is very interesting, very cool.
17:20But here we see the division.
17:23The data I used to compare the age profile of the sample, which is here, and that
17:30It is registered with IBGE.
17:32Not IBGE, sorry, but the TSE.
17:33According to the TSE (Superior Electoral Court), those 60 years or older, which is the voting public that most often votes for Lula, here it is.
17:40in the sample, 24%.
17:41According to the TSE (Superior Electoral Court), it is between 19% and 20%.
17:44In other words, a 4% greater difference.
17:46And the 25-40 age group represents approximately 37%.
17:50It's at 31% here.
17:51It is the public that votes most for Flávio Bolsonaro.
17:53In other words, we may end up with a higher vote count for Flávio than the polls suggest.
17:59It is indicating.
17:59That's why they talk about a margin of error of two points, plus or minus, because of...
18:04sample.
18:04Ah, but why doesn't the sample come out exactly the same as what's in the IBGE data?
18:10Or from the TSE?
18:12Well, for two reasons.
18:13Well, sometimes you just can't find the exact group.
18:15So you conduct a few more interviews with one group, which is the one that responded.
18:19You usually do more research than you actually need.
18:24Like this?
18:24Isn't it 2002?
18:25Yes, but you're doing 2020.
18:27You create an account.
18:28Their researchers will be working on 2020 and 2030.
18:33Because there will be researchers who will fail.
18:36It's going to be very bad.
18:37Then, by comparing the other people's counts, you can make some adjustments.
18:42In the case of telephone surveys, there is a margin of error.
18:46Did you understand?
18:46Ah, there's the price tag that needs to stay in place to have value.
18:50That range, that range, that range, that percentage, it's going, going, going.
18:53And the computer has the freedom to round those numbers, to adjust them.
18:58Because it was a computer-based survey.
19:00By telephone with computer assistance.
19:02In this sample, the most favorable outcome was for Lula.
19:05It might be reversed next time.
19:08Or get closer to what would be normal.
19:11But that's something I'm going to present to you.
19:14Research, research this type of problem.
19:15So, guys, if you liked it, leave a thumbs up, like, and share.
19:19Comment on this video on social media.
19:21And that's all for today.
19:23Thank you very much.
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