00:00The website Poder 360 has just released a series of articles discussing its latest research, Poder Data Ion, about
00:08the presidential race.
00:10In it, I'm going to talk about four of these topics; they'll release others, but I won't be able to discuss those later.
00:14speak more.
00:15In that poll, Lula has 38% of the intended votes compared to 36% for the candidate in first place.
00:22shift.
00:23And here is a graph they made showing voting intentions for president, between the 6th and 9th of [month/year].
00:29September.
00:29Has this research already captured the civil war that is currently taking place within the Supreme Federal Court?
00:34And here we'll take a quick look at the historical series.
00:37This lighter blue one, a contender for the lead, tied with yellow.
00:41In this slightly brighter, slightly lighter, slightly more vibrant blue, it's a technical tie.
00:46In the surveys presented on May 25, July 11-14, July 26-29, and July 9-
00:53August 12th
00:54Lula was clearly ahead of Plávio Bolsonaro by a considerable margin.
01:01The first time the two were in a statistical tie was in the poll conducted from June 21 to 24.
01:07Where Plávio was 36, Lula was 40.
01:09In the last three surveys conducted between August 23 and 26, August 30 and September 2, 6, and
01:18this last one between August 6th and September 9th,
01:20Lula and Plávio are constantly in a technical tie.
01:24However, in the two previous elections, the difference was 3 percentage points, now it is 2, meaning the difference has decreased.
01:31Augusto Cury consistently appeared with a 3% in the initial polls, but in these last two polls he has appeared with 10%.
01:40Pedro Santos consistently hovered between 3 and 4, Ronaldo Caiado dropped from 3, reached 5, and now has fallen to 2.
01:47Pablo Massa appears there with 2 or 3%, but he's a candidate we can consider out of the running, because he
01:53You can't campaign properly.
01:54He can't participate in the deposit, he can't do anything, which is a shame, because it would be interesting to see him speak.
01:59Because he has this knack for communicating well with the public.
02:03So, Clariana Barão, from the Christian Democracy party, and Hefz Dias, from the PSPU party, are ridiculous candidates, absolutely symbolic.
02:12Romeu Zema's support has fallen apart; he started with 4%, now he has 1%, and his numbers have been steadily declining.
02:19And then we see those super radical, left-wing candidates, like Rui Costa Pimenta, from the PCO,
02:25Edmilson Costa, from the PCB, and Samara Martins, from the year, all hovering between 0 and 1%.
02:31And Wilson Grassi, from Democrata, has 0. Not even his mother wants anything to do with him.
02:36In the latest poll, blank and null votes were 3%, and 1% didn't know.
02:41This series of reports was based on a set of 3 interviews, for this research.
02:47Conducted in 623 cities across the 27 states of the federation, the margin of error is 1.8 percentage points.
02:56In other words, exactly 4 percentage points is already outside their margin of error.
03:01The confidence interval is 95%, and it is registered with the TSE (Superior Electoral Court) under number BR-049-14-2026.
03:12In the rejection poll, Lula is rejected by 50% of readers and Fábio by 45%.
03:17This is a huge problem for Lula, as higher rejection rates indicate a trend.
03:23to a lower vote count in the second round, compared to the opponent.
03:26Voting potential, that is, the scenario in which the candidate would be able to receive votes.
03:32Lula had 37% of voters indicating him as the only one they would vote for, and 9% indicating him as a possible candidate.
03:40And 50% would not vote for him under any circumstances. Note that here, in Lula's scenario, 4% are missing.
03:48to reach 100% intent, which doesn't appear here. In other words, she probably doesn't.
03:53He knows, he didn't answer, and it wasn't presented. Flávio Bolsonaro has 36% of those interviewed.
04:00which indicate him as the only one they would vote for, and 13% as someone they might vote for. Here he reaches 49
04:07%
04:07In terms of voting potential, Lula reaches 46%. And I wouldn't vote for Flávio under any circumstances.
04:14Bolsonaro would have 45%. To reach 100%, Flávio is missing 6 percentage points.
04:20He doesn't know either and didn't answer. This here is the potential vote, not the candidate.
04:25He will actually receive it in the second round. The historical series of Lula's voting potential.
04:29It has remained consistent across two bands. I wouldn't vote for it at all; it has varied throughout the series.
04:35The story is between 48% and 50%. The only one I would vote for, it varied. The only one I would vote for, it varied between
04:4335% and 38%. And now it's at 37%. But the "could vote" vote started at 12%, then dropped to 11%,
04:54to 9%, to 10%, and now
04:55It's back at 9%. In other words, Lula most likely lost two or three percentage points.
05:03People who could have voted for him but gave up. Either because they lost their jobs, or because he's entering the race.
05:09At a time of economic crisis, with many businesses closing their doors. Or because of the scandal.
05:14Regarding the INSS issue, which is still being repeated, people are being reminded that Lula, for example, has...
05:20This scandal. And there's also the issue of the Supreme Court's civil war, where Lula has a majority of the justices.
05:28nominated.
05:29Either through him, or through Dilma, who is his political ally. So, there's no way to separate the two.
05:34His image is very much affected, isn't it? Things like that. Which is quite damaging for the Workers' Party supporter. As for the voting potential...
05:40In Bolsonaro's plan, there are some very important changes left for the PL candidate. In the series
05:47Historically, he started with 49% saying he would never vote for him, then dropped to 45%. That's a four-point difference.
05:54percentages, which is more than twice the margin of error. See, the margin of error for this survey.
05:59It's 1.8%. Twice the margin of error would be 3.6%. Here, he has four. That is, he
06:05this
06:05Beyond the margin of error. The only one I would vote for rose from 30 to 36. And it didn't just fluctuate.
06:13More, less, more. No. It started at 30, went to 32, went back to 30 and then...
06:17It went up. 31, 33, 33, 34 and now 36. It varied by 6 percentage points, which is more than three.
06:25times the margin of error. In other words, it did indeed go up. And he could vote. It fell from 17 to 13.
06:33consistently. 17, 15, 15, 14, 15, 14, 14, 13. These are two signs. First, several
06:40People who could have voted for him no longer have that option. He was like...
06:45The only candidate. And there are, for sure, some who I wouldn't vote for under any circumstances, who passed.
06:51He could vote for that person. That's why his number went up. From 30 to 36. Because he must have some...
06:58six percentage points that he could vote for. It went up to the only one he would vote for and a part
07:05From "I would never vote," it went down to "I could vote." Which is the best-case scenario.
07:11That could happen with Plata. And it will happen systematically. The election will take place.
07:15In about a month, these figures could still favor Bolsonaro for another two years.
07:20or three percentage points. That would be one or one and a half times the margin of error in terms of...
07:26of voting potential. And remember, we're definitely going to have a second round. If there is a second round...
07:32If this trend continues, he'll manage to overtake Lula. Oh, he'll win.
07:37By a wide margin. I would say it will be an election more or less like the one in Colombia.
07:41In Colombia, the difference between the winner and the loser, I think, was less than one point.
07:46Percentage. I think it will be a similar situation here in Brazil. Whoever wins, wins.
07:51by a smaller margin than in the last election. And it didn't even reach two percentage points.
07:54Revealing my voting intentions for the second round, then I'll make another short video and post it.
07:59Here it is for everyone to see. So, if you liked the video, like, comment, and share.
08:04Please help me with this channel project. Thank you.
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