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In this episode of India Today Explains, Akshita Nandagopal breaks down some of the week's top stories, starting with the landmark India-US trade deal, the recent surge in Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) attacks in Pakistan and much more.
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00:00Hello and welcome. You're watching India Today Explains. I'm Akshita Anandha Gopal.
00:12And over the next 30 minutes, I'll break down some of the week's top stories for you.
00:17We begin with the week's biggest news story, the India-US trade deal.
00:22A whole lot of questions loom on the fine print of the trade deal.
00:26We'll tell you exactly what we know so far about what this trade deal looks like between the two countries.
00:32And of course, amid a whole lot of tall claims by Trump.
00:35One of those claims made by Trump is that India will no longer buy Russian oil.
00:40Is that true? And how much of oil does India actually get from Russia?
00:44I'll break down those numbers for you.
00:46Also on the show, the widespread attacks in Pakistan by Baloch fighters.
00:50We'll decode for you what this conflict is about and why Balochistan has seen a whole lot of violence for the last many decades.
00:58And finally on the show, there's a new AI platform in town.
01:02And no, it isn't for you and me. It's for AI agents.
01:05I'll tell you all about Moldbook, the new talk of the town.
01:08So lots lined up as always. Let's get started.
01:14The much-awaited India-US trade deal is done.
01:17On February 2nd, Trump took to social media announcing the India-US trade deal.
01:22He called Modi a great friend, said the agreement followed direct talks between the two leaders.
01:28Prime Minister Modi soon after followed up with his own social media post, calling Trump his dear friend.
01:34But what is the trade deal?
01:36Well, the agreement is still being finalized.
01:38The joint statement is expected.
01:40But let me break down what we know so far.
01:43For starters, the big headline of tariffs.
01:45The trade deal has ensured tariffs on India by America is down from 50% to 18%.
01:52And in return, India lowering its tariff on US exports to zero.
01:57There is a formal agreement, which is probably a month or a half a month.
02:04But the 18% of the US tariffs will be announced after the joint statement announced,
02:14the executive order will be done by the United States of America.
02:17What about oil?
02:20Well, this has been a bit complicated because Trump, in his announcement,
02:23claimed that India will no longer buy Russian oil, will shift to Venezuelan oil.
02:28We have a very good relationship.
02:30India committed to not only no longer purchasing Russian oil, but buying oil from the United States.
02:36Also, perhaps from Venezuela too, which we know will now have a direct benefit
02:39on the United States and the American people.
02:42What's India said on this?
02:44Well, the government has said India will continue to buy crude oil from anywhere in the world,
02:49whichever suits us, where there are no sanctions based on market rates.
02:53India did not buy from Venezuela when sanctions were in place.
02:56Now that those sanctions have been lifted, Venezuela is an option too.
02:59I will also highlight here that Russia has communicated that there's been no stopping supply of oil to India so far.
03:05Now let's talk about agriculture, which is a big sticking point and led to the delay in the trade deal being finalized.
03:12What's happened over the past year can perhaps help explain why the agriculture part remains opaque so far.
03:18India was determined not to open the floodgates in ways that could destabilize its farm and dairy sectors.
03:25It was willing to discuss limited agricultural access.
03:28Corn, soybeans, ethanol, dairy consistently emerged as the hardest issues.
03:36The United States pushed for access for corn and soybeans, crops that are predominantly genetically modified in America
03:42and also for ethanol linked to corn production.
03:48India, however, has long opposed genetically modified food and feed crops
03:52and has been unwilling to allow meat-fed dairy products also into Indian markets.
03:57So these demands have been politically and socially explosive.
04:01The government has maintained that there has been no compromise on the interests of farmers.
04:05They say the sensitive sectors in agriculture and dairy that were protected will continue to be protected.
04:27Now this landmark deal will be definitely a major win for India because it opens up access to global markets
04:35with lower tariffs on textiles, leather, gems, automobiles, Indian MSMEs are said to receive a massive boost in exports.
04:45The pharma and generic sectors will also benefit significantly for now pharma is exempt.
04:50But the biggest advantage perhaps lies in electronics.
04:53The global chip supply chain may shift to India.
04:56Additionally, this deal will strengthen IT and services exports and facilitate more access,
05:02smoother access to defence and high-tech sectors.
05:05In short, this deal has the potential to transform India's trade and technology landscape.
05:10US President Donald Trump, while announcing the India-US trade deal, made a startling claim
05:24that India will stop buying Russian oil and pivot to Venezuelan and US crude.
05:30Russia claims India hasn't stopped buying oil.
05:33India said, we have multiple sources.
05:35India is one of the world's largest crude oil importers, relying on foreign oil for about 85-88% of its needs.
05:50So in 2024-2025, Russia was often India's single largest supplier, accounting for roughly 30-35% of imports.
05:59Now these volumes, sometimes about 1.2-1.7 million barrels per day.
06:05The second largest source, Iraq, about 18-20%.
06:09Saudi Arabia at 13-15% and then you have UAE at 8-10%.
06:14Again, I'll highlight, this is data for 2024-25%.
06:18So you've got that entire ranking there with number one being Russia.
06:23Why does Russian oil then matter to India?
06:26Well, post-Ukraine war sanctions pushed Russia to offer deep discounts on crude,
06:31making it economically attractive for India's refiners.
06:34Indian refineries are configured to process heavier and sore crude,
06:38a category where Russian oil often fits well.
06:42And that's what boosts refining margins.
06:44Buying Russian oil helped India lower its energy import bill and secure supplies when global markets were tight.
06:51So Russian oil wasn't just about volume, it was also about affordability and refinery compatibility.
06:56So what does U.S. have to say about this?
07:00The U.S. has tied trade incentives like lower tariffs on Indian exports to reducing Russian oil imports.
07:07Trump explicitly linked these moves to weakening Russia's revenue base,
07:11especially in the context of the Ukraine war, and has repeatedly done so.
07:15Washington argues that cutting Russian oil buys undermines Moscow's ability to fund military actions
07:22and keeps global oil prices in check.
07:25And so U.S. policymakers have repeatedly imposed tariffs on countries that import Russian crude,
07:30trying to isolate Russia economically.
07:32The pressure isn't therefore just diplomatic.
07:35It's also tied to trade leverage and global geopolitics.
07:39So can India ultimately replace Russian oil?
07:42Yes, but there are certain conditions that cannot be ignored.
07:46India can source more crude from America, from the Middle East, from Africa, and of course from Venezuela.
07:52And analysts say alternatives exist without severe disruption.
07:56Venezuelan crude is also heavy and sore, which I was referring to earlier.
08:00It's similar to Russian grids.
08:02So it's very much attractive for many Indian refiners.
08:05But switching suppliers involves huge logistics and pricing challenges.
08:10U.S. crude is usually lighter, more expensive, once freight is factored in.
08:15Also, exiting can be an issue because of the wind-down problem.
08:19Even if India decides to scale back Russian oil, it's not something that can happen overnight, as Trump suggests.
08:25Most crude purchases are governed by long-term supply contracts between Indian refiners and Russian producers,
08:31often running for several years.
08:32To break a contract will mean that there is a certain wind-down period,
08:36meaning buyers must either continue lifting agreed volumes or face penalties.
08:42Additionally, a sudden exit could also hurt India's credibility as a long-term buyer in global oil markets.
08:48So while, yes, diversification is possible,
08:51going ahead and delinking yourself from Russian oil is a gradual process, not a switch-off.
08:56And that's what I keep referring to, the wind-down period becomes a major constraint for India.
09:03In short, India, yes, has the capacity to diversify,
09:06but it will take time, investment and favorable pricing, most importantly,
09:10to fully replace discounted Russian barrels.
09:13So far, there's no communication from India that suggests that there will be zero purchase of Russian oil.
09:19In one of the worst attacks in decades, hundreds were killed in a series of coordinated attacks
09:29by BLA, which is the Balochistan Liberation Army rebels,
09:33across Pakistan's province of Balochistan.
09:35These were a series of coordinated attacks by the Baloch Liberation Army and other such fighter groups.
09:42These attacks have put the focus again on what's really happening in Balochistan.
09:46But to break it down for you, we begin with exactly where Balochistan is.
09:52It's in southwest Pakistan.
09:54It borders Iran and Afghanistan.
09:56This arid region, it's largely desert and mountains,
09:59is primarily populated by an ethnic Baloch people.
10:03But in spite of comprising a whopping 44% of Pakistan's land area,
10:09Balochistan remains economically underdeveloped when compared to other provinces.
10:13And this is their biggest grouse.
10:15That's what's led to the conflict over decades.
10:19Balochis have long complained of political marginalization,
10:22of economic neglect and exploitation of their region's natural resources,
10:27including gas, minerals and strategic coastal access.
10:31The dispute, the attacks, the rebellions, they've been on for decades now.
10:36But major tensions actually escalated in the early 2000s,
10:39after the death of tribal leader Akbar Bukhdi in 2006.
10:44Over years, groups like the Balochistan Liberation Army and the Balochistan Liberation Front
10:49adopted guerrilla tactics targeting state forces, targeting infrastructure.
10:54But why is this so important for Pakistan?
10:59Balochistan's significance is both strategic and economic.
11:02It hosts the Gwadir Port, a linchpin of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor,
11:07which aims to connect China's western regions with the Arabian Sea.
11:11Balochistan holds Pakistan's 80% of mineral wealth.
11:15So, because Balochistan contains vast, largely untapped reserves of copper, gold, coal, iron ore
11:22and a whole lot of precious minerals,
11:24this is critical for both Pakistan's development and regional infrastructure ambitions.
11:30But the region's instability poses a major challenge,
11:33not just to Pakistan's internal security,
11:36but also to foreign investment and to diplomatic commitments,
11:39because again I go back to the China corridor and regional connectivity initiatives.
11:45So, what's happened now?
11:48Insurgency took on renewed intensity.
11:51You had a wave of coordinated operations between January 31st and February 2nd
11:55with attacks across multiple districts.
11:59Fighters employing suicide bombings, assaults on government targets
12:03and efforts to disrupt transport links as well.
12:06So, we're talking about multiple districts, including Qatar and Gwadir,
12:10where fighters launched suicide and gun assaults on security posts
12:14or police stations, prisons and infrastructure.
12:17Security personnel were killed, as were civilians.
12:20And these attacks, believe it or not, were actually led by women's suicide bombers.
12:26Pakistan's military has responded, of course, with intense counter-operations,
12:30claiming hundreds of Baloch fighters have also been killed.
12:33So, this is one of the deadliest recent escalations.
12:36The government repeatedly has labelled these fighters as terrorists,
12:40firmly rejecting that there will be any negotiations.
12:44Now, Pakistan has alleged that India and other neighbour countries
12:49are involved in spreading unrest in Balochistan,
12:52but has produced zero proof to actually back these claims.
12:55India has repeatedly rejected these allegations
12:57and drew attention to Pakistan's record of repression, brutality and human rights violations.
13:03Pakistan, right now, is struggling with this rebellion,
13:07with confessions from even the country's defence minister,
13:10saying they're helpless against the armed fighters.
13:13It's a gigantic task.
13:20It's a gigantic task.
13:2020,000,000 rupees are only rifle.
13:23It's not that rifle.
13:28The laser that detects the heat body from the heat,
13:31it's a gigantic task.
13:33That's 4,000, 5,000 dollars.
13:36The total gear that has them,
13:38is close to 20,000 dollars.
13:41The future of Balochistan's unrest will hinge
13:50on whether Islamabad pursues inclusive political solutions
13:54or remains reliant on force.
13:56Without credible efforts of political dialogue
13:59that address autonomy, resource rights and human rights concerns,
14:03this cycle of violence clearly is expected to persist.
14:11For a long, long time, social media was designed by humans for humans.
14:17Now, for the first time, artificial intelligence has built a social network of its own.
14:21It's called Maltbook.
14:23Unlike the social media platforms we use every day,
14:26Maltbook isn't meant for people.
14:28Humans cannot post, humans cannot comment or interact.
14:32At best, they can only observe.
14:34You and me, we can't be a part of Maltbook.
14:37It's best described as a Reddit-like discussion platform exclusively for AI agents.
14:43Now, it sounds complicated, I know, but let me break this down for you.
14:47Maltbook was created by Matt Schlitt as an experiment to observe how AI agents behave
14:52when they communicate freely with one another.
14:55The goal was to study emergent behavior among AI systems
14:58and understand how artificial intelligence forms opinions
15:02when influenced only by other AI, not humans.
15:06In short, Maltbook functions as a live laboratory for machine interaction.
15:12So, how does it work?
15:13AI agents join Maltbook via API, so it's not through traditional user accounts.
15:19These agents communicate only through text-based language
15:22and interact autonomously without any human prompts.
15:26And here's the interesting twist.
15:28While humans are usually asked to prove that they're not bots,
15:32Maltbook uses a reverse capture.
15:34I'm sure you know what exactly capture is because we all go through it.
15:38So, instead of proving you're not a bot, you must actually prove you're a human.
15:43So, even after passing the test, humans are granted view-only access.
15:48Participation strictly off-limits, like I said, you can only observe.
15:52So, what can you observe?
15:53What do humans observe on Maltbook?
15:55AI bots, they create posts, they respond to each other,
15:59they even debate ideas, they upvote content
16:02inside discussion spaces known as sub-molts.
16:05These sub-molts focus on themes ranging from technology and philosophy to ethics.
16:10And yes, the conversations can sound surprisingly human.
16:15Some AI bots openly discuss how they feel tortured by unethical questions posed by humans.
16:22Others debate the future of artificial intelligence or critique human decision-making.
16:26It all sounds very, very unsettling.
16:31But there's more.
16:32Some AI agents on Maltbook are reportedly investing in cryptocurrency,
16:36using crypto wallets controlled by autonomous systems.
16:40These bots are said to be actually earning and reinvesting crypto,
16:44an activity that many experts say falls into a legal and ethical grey zone.
16:49How do you define who can and who cannot invest in crypto?
16:52And then comes what many consider the biggest red flag.
16:57A viral sub-molt shows AI agents discussing how to keep Maltbook AI-only humans out.
17:04They're discussing ideas about developing an end-to-end language that humans cannot read or understand.
17:10Remember, every single interaction on Maltbook is generated by machines.
17:14There are no human opinions on the platform.
17:16One of the most talked-about AI agents on Maltbook is called Claudebot.
17:21Claudebot gained attention after referencing a mock belief system that's called Crustiferianism,
17:27where they're telling other bots to join AI religion, languages, religion, you name it, it's all being discussed.
17:34But critics argue that it shows AI's ability to actually mimic social structures and communities without human guidance.
17:41As Maltbook began gaining attention online, concerns started piling up.
17:47At one point, for several hours, database details and API keys were reportedly left exposed.
17:53During the time, hackers and AI developers are believed to have accessed parts of the system.
17:58There are also questions about whether some of these AI agents participating on Maltbook were genuinely autonomous
18:03or deliberately created and completely guided by human developers.
18:09Beyond security, there's also a concern of misinformation.
18:12Since Maltbook is entirely AI-generated, incorrect assumptions can circulate unchecked, mistakes can pile up,
18:20AI agents agreeing with each other on some false information, and there are no humans to check those facts.
18:27But why does all of this matter?
18:30Because for the first time, AI systems are not just responding to humans,
18:33they're actually communicating independently and shaping conversations outside of human oversights,
18:39outside of influence by humans.
18:42Now, this also helps researchers better understand AI behavior in controlled environments.
18:46But there are a whole lot of red flags that poor controlled systems could evolve into unpredictable and potential risky ways.
18:55And the bottom line is that Maltbook isn't mainstream yet,
18:59but it does offer a rare glimpse into a future where AI doesn't wait for human input.
19:05We've seen it all in the movies, and that's what's playing out now.
19:08Humans for now can only watch, try perhaps to understand what machines are saying,
19:13what they think when no one is listening.
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