00:00The possibility of the South Korean military heading to the Strait of Hormuz is increasing.
00:03The government explains that a troop dispatch has not yet been decided.
00:05However, it is known that the Ministry of National Defense has already sent a local inspection team to the UAE
00:09and has checked military bases, ports of call, and even maintenance and supply conditions that the South Korean military could
00:13use.
00:14Let's take a closer look at this today. Let's get right into it.
00:16Before that, if you want to get the fastest international news in Korea, please make sure to check out SBS
00:19News.
00:20The Ministry of National Defense's local inspection team, which was dispatched to the Middle East to assess the conditions for
00:23troop deployment to the Strait of Hormuz and other matters,
00:25is scheduled to return to Korea on September 10th.
00:27They departed for the UAE last weekend.
00:29The Ministry of National Defense explained this as simply an assessment of the local situation.
00:33Many media outlets have reported that the local inspection team seemed to be checking military bases and ports where our
00:37forces could be utilized locally,
00:39as well as inspecting local support conditions such as maintenance and supply and the operational environment.
00:43If the deployment of South Korean troops is decided, it is expected that they will operate at Al-Dafra Air
00:47Base,
00:48which is a major U.S. military base in the Middle East located in the UAE.
00:51And if this happens, the government may deploy the P-8 Poseidon Maritime Patrol aircraft as an asset to be
00:56sent to the Hormuz area and operate it there.
00:58The government explains that nothing has been decided yet regarding the deployment to Hormuz though.
01:02As a local investigation team has been dispatched, the possibility of deployment is gradually increasing.
01:06Especially according to the military's overseas deployment regulations, when a local investigation team is dispatched to a potential deployment site,
01:12they are required to write an investigation activity report after returning and submit it to the NSC.
01:17Since the local investigation team has already been dispatched and returned,
01:20it seems likely that the NSC will be convened soon to decide on the deployment.
01:23Above all, the biggest question being discussed now is,
01:26if we do deploy, in what manner will the deployment take place?
01:28In fact, it was known that we would join the multinational task force led by the U.K. and France
01:32and carry out the mission together.
01:33However, what's being discussed now is that we might first join the MFC, which is currently led by the United
01:37States.
01:38Then, if the U.K. and France join, the plan to join the multinational task force is being considered.
01:43What is the MFC?
01:44Simply put, the MFC refers to the current military operations being conducted by the U.S. military in the Strait
01:48of Hormuz.
01:49Currently, the U.S. military is carrying out mine clearing and sea lane stabilization missions on its own.
01:53This means that South Korean troops would be deployed there.
01:55Of course, the government hasn't made its official stance clear yet.
01:58Because of this, there are growing concerns.
02:00The reason for considering sending troops to a U.S.-only operation first is because the multinational task force led by
02:05the U.K. and France has not yet been activated.
02:07The U.K. and France have sent warships to the area around the Strait of Hormuz, but they haven't started
02:11full-scale operations yet.
02:12So why is the government pushing ahead with the troop deployment to the Strait of Hormuz?
02:15The main reason is said to be strong pressure from the United States.
02:18Currently, the United States is demanding military contributions from its allies, including South Korea, to restore normal navigation in the
02:24Strait of Hormuz.
02:24In particular, after President Trump publicly expressed dissatisfaction with South Korea's role regarding the Strait of Hormuz,
02:30it is known that the United States' demands have been conveyed through various diplomatic and security channels.
02:33Some domestic media have reported that the United States conveyed its opinion urging South Korea to expedite troop deployment,
02:38and even wanted South Korea's military contribution to be made before the midterm elections in November.
02:42However, the Ministry of National Defense denied the claim that the United States set a deadline of November and requested
02:46troop deployment, saying it is not true.
02:48Therefore, we cannot conclude that the United States officially presented a troop deployment deadline to South Korea.
02:52However, it's also hard to say that there was no request from the United States at all.
02:55It is clear that the South Korean government is under considerable diplomatic pressure,
02:58as it has been continuously discussing ways to contribute to efforts in the Strait of Hormuz with the United States,
03:02and now faces public pressure from the U.S. as well.
03:04The problem is that even if the government agrees to send troops,
03:07there are many procedures and political burdens to overcome before actually deploying forces.
03:10First of all, approval from the National Assembly is required.
03:13However, even within the pro-government camp, there are already public opinions opposing the troop deployment,
03:16or calling for careful consideration.
03:17If the troop deployment is actually pursued,
03:19there is a high possibility that fierce debates will arise in the National Assembly over whether the decision was made
03:24at the request of the United States,
03:25or for South Korea's security and economic interest.
03:27And public opinion will also be a burden for the government.
03:29In a recent survey, 45% opposed sending maritime patrol aircraft and supply ships to the Strait of Hormuz,
03:34while 36% were in favor.
03:36With opposition to the troop deployment higher than support,
03:39if the government makes a military decision, the political burden will inevitably increase.
03:43In addition, Iran is also warning that there could be serious consequences
03:46if foreign troops are stationed or participate in military operations in the Strait of Hormuz.
03:50If South Korean troops are actually deployed,
03:52we must also consider the possibility of increased diplomatic tensions with Iran.
03:55Considering the alliance with the United States, it is difficult to ignore our role.
03:59But since the government must also take into account domestic politics,
04:01public opinion, and relations with Iran, it is facing a very difficult decision.
04:05We also need to pay close attention to President Trump's unpredictability.
04:08President Trump explained that the Middle East war would end right after the midterm elections.
04:11And he explained that it was because they no longer have the strength to hold out.
04:14Of course, one might think he made such remarks,
04:16because the Middle East war is also negatively affecting voter sentiment in the midterm elections.
04:19In fact, while he told Koreans to keep their troops deployed until November,
04:22he also said the war would end right after the midterm elections.
04:25As he kept talking, there is now a flood of public opinion,
04:27questioning whether Korea is being made to shoulder the whole burden
04:29while the United States tries to pull out a loan.
04:31So then, what can we think about here?
04:33What kind of developments might follow in the future?
04:35Assuming the troop deployment is decided,
04:36the first hurdle to overcome will be the National Assembly.
04:39Even if the government decides to push for troop deployment,
04:41it still needs the National Assembly's approval to send troops overseas.
04:43However, if the approval motion is rejected in the National Assembly,
04:46it could have a significant impact on Korea-U.S. relations.
04:48It's hard to rule out the possibility that the Trump administration
04:50will strongly criticize South Korea's response.
04:53President Trump could immediately pressure South Korea,
04:55questioning how the ruling party,
04:56which holds more than half the seats in the National Assembly,
04:58could let the bill be rejected.
04:59Especially since President Trump has already publicly expressed dissatisfaction
05:02with South Korea's level of contribution to the Homie's mission.
05:04If the troop deployment bill does not pass the National Assembly,
05:07the U.S. may once again raise the issue of South Korea's contribution as an ally.
05:10Depending on the situation, it's also possible that the U.S. could apply additional pressure on South Korea
05:13by linking this issue to trade, defense costs, or other security matters.
05:16They might even say they'll impose tariffs on semiconductors.
05:19On the other hand, if the National Assembly passes the approval motion,
05:21the important issue from now on will be how to organize the actual troops and where to deploy them.
05:25The forces currently being discussed include maritime patrol aircraft,
05:28logistics support ships, and explosive ordnance disposal personnel.
05:30Their roles are likely to focus more on maritime surveillance, navigation support,
05:33logistics support, and handling hazardous materials rather than offensive missions.
05:37The problem is how effectively these forces can protect themselves
05:39if a military conflict breaks out in the Hormuz area.
05:42Especially if maritime patrol aircraft or logistics support ships are deployed in operations
05:46and come under drone or missile attacks,
05:47it would be difficult to say that the Korean military could intercept all of them.
05:50Since there are practical limits to defending the entire area
05:52with only the Korean military's own air defense capabilities,
05:55cooperation with allied forces such as the United States,
05:57which are operating in the region, could become important.
06:00However, even if cooperation is achieved,
06:01the possibility of attacks does not disappear completely.
06:04The bigger problem is when there are actual casualties.
06:06If there are injured or dead among the deployed Korean troops,
06:08the debate over the necessity and justification of the deployment
06:11could become much more intense in Korea than it is now.
06:13From the government's perspective,
06:15it may have to reconsider additional deployments or changes in mission.
06:18And in the National Assembly,
06:19new debates could arise over the level of military response.
06:22There's another point we need to consider here.
06:23We can't assume that Iran's response will be focused only on the Korean military unit.
06:27If Korea takes on a military role in the Strait of Hormuz,
06:29it's hard to predict how far Iran might expand its means of pressure against Korea.
06:33Especially since there are already a significant number of Koreans and Korean companies operating in the Middle East,
06:37we also need to consider the possibility that they could be exposed to new risks.
06:41Local business sites of Korean companies or areas where many Koreans live or work
06:44could become targets of Iranian pressure and in a heightened state of tension,
06:48safety issues could also increase for Korean flagships or logistics networks used by Korean companies.
06:52What is even more concerning is that Korean troops are already stationed in various parts of the Middle East.
06:56The AK unit is in the United Arab Emirates,
06:58and the Dongmyong unit has been dispatched to Lebanon.
07:01Even if these units are not directly participating in the Hormuz Strait operation,
07:04if military tensions between Iran and Korea rise,
07:07the safety of all Korean troops in the Middle East needs to be considered separately.
07:10In fact, Iran has carried out several attacks using missiles and drones against the United States in the Middle East.
07:15Since Iran has demonstrated both the capability and willingness to attack U.S. military facilities,
07:19it is difficult to say that the risks surrounding foreign military bases and troops in the Middle East
07:22are completely unrelated to the Korean military.
07:24Especially since the AK unit is stationed in the UAE,
07:27where there are facilities used for military activities by the United States and its allies,
07:30if military tensions in the Middle East rise significantly,
07:32it will be necessary to closely monitor the surrounding situation.
07:35Of course, we cannot conclude that Iran will actually attack the Korean military or Korean citizen.
07:40But Iran as well, escalating into a direct conflict with Korea could be a burden.
07:43However, if the Korean military ends up participating in a U.S.-led operation in the Hormuz Strait,
07:46there is a possibility that Iran may perceive Korea differently than before.
07:50From that point on, the Korean government may have to manage not only the safety of the troops dispatched to
07:54the Hormuz Strait,
07:55but also the safety of Korean forces already stationed in the Middle East,
07:57such as in the UAE and Lebanon, as well as the safety of Koreans and Korean companies operating locally.
08:02Therefore, when deciding on troop deployment,
08:05it is important not only to review the mission and defensive capabilities of the dispatched units,
08:09but also to prepare safety measures for Korean personnel and facilities throughout the Middle East.
