00:00Due to the recent Middle East war, the U.S. has depleted many air defense missiles, which is now
00:05impacting Korea too. Because strategic supplies from U.S. forces Korea have also been redeployed
00:10to the Middle East, the military strength of U.S. forces Korea has weakened. It has been confirmed
00:15that the U.S. military is currently pressuring defense companies to expand their weapons
00:19production. According to a report by the Washington Post, the U.S. military has ordered
00:23defense companies to submit plans to improve delivery speed and expand production of key
00:27military assets by the 21st. These key assets include air defense weapons. The U.S. military
00:34is pushing hard because it depleted many key assets during the Middle East war. In the first
00:38month after the outbreak of the Middle East war, the U.S. fired over 850 Tomahawk cruise missiles
00:43and more than 1,000 Patriot and THAAD missiles. They also used more than 1,300 ATAC-MS missiles.
00:50As a result, the Center for Strategic and International Studies estimated that by the end of July, the
00:55U.S. stockpile of Patriot interceptor missiles had dropped below 827 and the stockpile of THAAD
01:00interceptor missiles had decreased to around 2,278. Where is this from? It's not data released by some
01:06unknown research facility, but by the Center for Strategic and International Studies, one of the
01:11most prominent think tanks in the U.S., so it's a trustworthy statistic. Right now, only about 20% of
01:17the
01:17THAAD missiles remain. It's understood that the Patriot missiles are at just around 35%. The problem is that
01:23production isn't keeping up with the rate at which those assets are being used up. In fact,
01:27American manufacturing has been significantly weakened. Some people often think of American
01:31manufacturing during World War II and say that the U.S. can quickly replenish its production,
01:35but World War II was already 80 years ago. The United States has changed significantly over time.
01:42In peacetime, the U.S. produces up to 200 Tomahawk missiles annually. But just in one month of this war,
01:47over 850 missiles were used. Also, the annual production of Patriot air defense missiles is
01:52about 600, but more than 1,000 were used this time. As a result, the U.S. government is pushing
01:58to boost production. Of course, since it's the U.S., there's a lot of money. The budget is more than
02:03enough. The problem is the pace of production. It's estimated that it will take more than three
02:08years just to restore the inventory that's already gone. We're looking at over three years. Even if they
02:13build factories, it's not something that can be done overnight. In fact, during this war,
02:17Iran has often shown that it is intentionally trying to deplete America's air defense missiles.
02:21It got to the point where Ukraine was even giving advice to the U.S., saying they shouldn't waste air
02:26defense missiles like that. Here's their strategy. First, they send many drones. By doing this,
02:32the U.S. ended up firing air defense missiles at the drones. Drones are indeed very powerful weapons,
02:37but since air defense missiles are extremely expensive, even though the drones were intercepted,
02:41the U.S. ended up at a loss. And when air defense missiles are launched, their positions are revealed,
02:47so Iran kept making the U.S. use up its air defense missiles and then used its own ballistic missiles
02:52to attack key U.S. facilities. This strategy actually worked quite well. Due to the high number
02:57of air defense missiles fired, there was a missile shortage, leading the U.S. to redeploy supplies from
03:03other countries to the Middle East. Of course, I'm not saying that Iran didn't suffer any damage at all,
03:08but the shortage of U.S. air defense missiles could eventually lead to other problems.
03:12Tom Karako, a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies,
03:16called the situation a major warning about the generational erosion of conventional
03:20deterrence capabilities. This means the depletion of the U.S. military's air defense stockpile isn't
03:25just a temporary issue, but a major factor that could impact China's and Russia's national
03:29decision-making for years. With the Middle East conflict escalating and demand for interceptor missiles
03:34rising, the U.S. is indefinitely delaying promised weapon deliveries to European and Asian allies,
03:39including South Korea and Japan. They've started withdrawing large numbers of air defense assets
03:45and Tomahawk cruise missiles from key bases in Asia and Europe to urgently redeploy them to the Middle
03:50East. You might say that this is a lie or propaganda from a media outlet with a particular political
03:55bias. In reality, on the Ukrainian front, the supply of Western air defense missiles has almost
04:00completely stopped, and they are unable to defend against Russian bombings and missile attacks,
04:05resulting in devastating losses. Additionally, the Tomahawk missiles meant for Taiwan's defense
04:10have been moved to the Middle East, carrying important implications. The weakening of the
04:14military power of U.S. forces stationed in Asia, including U.S. forces in Korea, gives China,
04:18which is eyeing an invasion of Taiwan, a critical opportunity for miscalculation. There is a great
04:22risk that the Chinese leadership will see the current situation, where the U.S. is bogged down in the
04:26Middle East and even its air defense weapons to protect its allies are depleted, as the perfect
04:31timing to shake up the security landscape of Northeast Asia. Recently, there was also a
04:35large-scale purge of military leaders in China who opposed a cross-straight war, so there is one
04:40thing we need to point out here. If the U.S. redeploys its air defense weapons to the Middle East,
04:45does that mean South Korea's air defense network will completely collapse? To give you the conclusion
04:48first, that's not the case. The South Korean military has set up a multi-layered air defense system
04:53against North Korea's ballistic missiles, aircraft, and cruise missiles. The Patriot and Cheongong
04:58too are in use, and work is underway to deploy the L-SAM to intercept North Korea's ballistic missiles
05:03at higher altitudes. Therefore, even if some of the U.S. forces Korea's air defense assets are
05:09withdrawn, South Korea's air defense capability will not disappear. However, the important thing is that
05:13the air defense systems of South Korea and the United States do not operate separately from each other.
05:18This is because the air defense assets of the South Korean military, the Patriot systems of the U.S.
05:23forces Korea and assets like THAAD are operated together, creating a structure that enhances
05:27the overall defense capability of the Korean peninsula. If U.S. assets are pulled out,
05:32the South Korean military will have more areas and responsibilities to manage on its own.
05:36If North Korea deploys ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and drones simultaneously,
05:41the air defense network would face even more targets. If U.S. forces Korea sends air defense
05:46assets to the Middle East, South Korea will need to use more of its own air defense forces.
05:50Prolonged deployments could also make managing interceptor missile inventories a key concern.
05:54South Korea should focus on more than just the U.S. withdrawing air defense assets in this
05:59situation. If the redeployment of U.S. forces becomes prolonged, a key issue will be how much
06:03of the air defense responsibilities previously handled by the U.S. on the Korean peninsula can be
06:08managed independently by the South Korean military. It is clear that the South Korean military's air
06:12defense capabilities have developed to a considerable level, but when looking at the entire AROC-U.S.
06:17combined air defense network, there is definitely a possibility that changes in U.S. forces could
06:22affect South Korea's security. Of course, we should also listen to President Trump's position.
06:26According to current foreign media reports, there are ongoing claims about a shortage of air defense
06:30missiles. After these reports, President Trump became furious and ordered a full investigation
06:35into leaks of military secrets and a review of ammunition stockpiles. The White House said the
06:40current U.S. military response is sufficient and warned that government leaks will be strictly
06:44punished under federal law. President Trump reportedly expressed strong dissatisfaction,
06:49saying these reports exposed U.S. military weaknesses could hurt its position in Iran nuclear
06:53talks and Middle East dominance and might provoke Iran. In that situation, what followed was pressure
06:59from the U.S. Department of Defense on defense companies. And because of the shortage of air defense
07:03missiles, the U.S. also decided to take action. Currently, the U.S. government and the defense
07:07industry have already begun significantly expanding the production capacity of major interceptor missiles.
07:11Lockheed Martin is pushing forward with a plan to expand its air defense missile production
07:15capacity from about 600 missiles per year to around 2,000 per year. That's more than tripling the
07:21production volume. This is why the United States is expanding both production facilities and the
07:26supply chain to tackle the current ammunition shortage. An increase in THAAD interceptor missile
07:32production is also being pursued. The existing annual production capacity was about 96 units,
07:37but there are plans to expand this to 400 units per year. Both the Patriot missile and THAAD play
07:42important roles in the United States ballistic missile defense, so expanding production capacity
07:46could have a significant impact on rebuilding America's air defense network in the future.
07:51However, one key issue remains. Announcing a plan to expand production doesn't mean missiles will
07:56quickly fill America's ammunition depots. To expand production facilities, new equipment must be
08:01installed and the necessary workforce must be secured. The production capacity of companies supplying
08:06various parts and materials that make up missiles also needs to increase together. There will be a
08:11significant delay between when the United States starts increasing production and when inventories
08:15actually recover. From the US perspective, what is needed now is to quickly replenish the interceptor
08:21missiles that are currently in short supply. However, the effects of expanded production may not fully
08:26appear until later. Even if annual production rises from 600 to 2,000 missiles, expanding production
08:32facilities will still take time. The same applies to THAAD, so while US production expansion is important,
08:40it won't quickly resolve the inventory shortage on its own. That's because there's a time gap between
08:45the missiles needed now and the missiles that will be produced in a few years. The United States is
08:50pressuring defense companies to speed up production expansion as much as possible. However, the problem
08:56is that if it takes the United States several years to secure enough air defense missiles again,
09:00during that time, China and Russia may decide to test America's ability to respond.
09:04The United States currently lacks time, not money.
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