00:00In this video, I just want to discuss financializing macro events.
00:05So effectively, a trader's guide to binary contracts and event perps.
00:10So prediction markets and event derivatives,
00:14Kalshi, Astadex, GM Trade.
00:17These are the three platforms that we'll be focusing on today
00:21when we're looking at on-chain prediction markets
00:25and event-driven markets, right?
00:27So prediction markets and these event-driven derivatives
00:30are actually kind of bringing something new
00:33to the global macroeconomic world of decision-making, right?
00:38Federal reserve, interest rate shifts or election outcomes,
00:43Web3 protocol, milestones into liquidity, binary contracts,
00:49and synthetic perpetual futures, right?
00:52And then you've got platforms like Kalshi
00:55that are focused more on serving as a more or less
00:58a premier federally regulated institutional event exchange offering,
01:04de-order liquidity on the order books for US dollar event contracts
01:09across inflation metrics, central bank policy,
01:13geopolitical events, and so much more, right?
01:16And then some other newer entrants into the world of on-chain markets
01:22like Astadex, which is delivering kind of a high-throughput decentralized event
01:28derivatives of perpetual futures that enable Web3 traders
01:32to pretty much effectively speculate on crypto milestones
01:36or macro events with high leverage, but with also on-chain transparency.
01:40And then newer platforms, much newer platforms like GM Trade,
01:45which combine things like synthetic assets trading
01:48and event-driven perpetuals.
01:50And they're doing that on layer 2 networks,
01:53allowing users to effectively execute the zero slippage macro positions
01:57against multi-asset capital pools.
01:59So this kind of development in the on-chain world is very interesting.
02:07If you want to get started with any of the platforms,
02:09check out the links in the description.
02:12You can get referral bonuses, rebates, discounts, bonuses,
02:17and things like that.
02:18So you can get started with Kalshi perps,
02:21for example, Astadex or GM Trade or below.
02:26If you want to know how to do best cross-chain bridging,
02:28for example, you can use platforms like D-Bridge.
02:32But prediction markets and event derivatives effectively
02:35are just evolving from niche speculative outlets
02:39into these essential global risk management venues
02:42rather than taking indirect market exposure
02:46through equities or spot crypto, right?
02:49Event contracts allow quantitative traders effectively
02:52and institutional disks as well
02:55to then isolate and trade binary outcomes directly, right?
03:00So the financialization itself enables three core trading strategies.
03:05You know, you've got macro risk hedging
03:08where you've got treasury managers and funds
03:10that purchase yes or no event contracts
03:12that are tied to either, like I said,
03:14the Federal Reserve interest rates
03:16or CPI inflation prints or regulatory rulings
03:20to hedge their spot portfolios
03:22against those macroeconomic shocks.
03:25Then you've got also the strategy
03:27of using implied probability arbitrage.
03:31Right here, you've got quantitative algorithms
03:33that are identifying mispricings
03:36between on-chain event contracts,
03:38regulated order books,
03:39and those traditional financial futures, right?
03:42And then the last kind of strategy
03:45being speculative milestone sort of trading
03:48where you've got retail and institutional allocators
03:51that gain early exposure
03:53to protocol mainnet launches
03:55or token generation events,
03:57election outcomes of sort of things
04:00that have a fixed risk binary payouts.
04:03So to evaluate these platforms,
04:05you need to understand obviously
04:07which ones give you deepest liquidity,
04:09the tightest bid spreads,
04:10the more secure settlement mechanisms as well.
04:13So that's why we actually put together
04:15the event market efficiency index framework.
04:20Then we kind of evaluate
04:22based on the order book depth,
04:24tightness of spreads,
04:25article settlement determinism,
04:28capital efficiency,
04:29leverage availability,
04:30and kind of just the regulatory
04:31smart contract compliance
04:33and on-chain cross-chain settlement speeds as well.
04:36So the full guide is in the link
04:39in the description.
04:40You can see that for yourself
04:41and see the full competitive analysis.
04:45Let me know what your thoughts are
04:47and get started on the platforms.
04:49Most of them we've already also reviewed them
04:51in detail on our main site,
04:53Decentralized.
04:53Don't use like, share, subscribe,
04:54and I'll see you guys in the next videos.
04:56Peace.
04:57Inflation is transitory.
04:59Inflation is transitory.
05:01Inflation is transitory.
05:01Inflation is transitory.
05:02Inflation is transitory.
05:03Inflation is transitory.
05:04Inflation is transitory.
05:05Inflation is transitory.
05:05Inflation is transitory.
05:06Inflation is transitory.
05:06Inflation is transitory.
05:06Inflation is transitory.
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