00:00India refuses to sign the Belt and Road Clause in Bishkek.
00:03Days later, its foreign minister is in Kiev while the city is under alert.
00:09And the next week, New Delhi opens the doors of Bharat Mandapam to the entire BRICS leadership.
00:16The mainstream line is that this is messy, that India is a frenemy within its own block,
00:23or that it's playing both sides of a global divide.
00:27But if you watch this sequence, a different story emerges.
00:31This is the strategy of a hinged state, using the chair of the world's fastest-growing economic block
00:37to ensure that multipolarity doesn't just mean a change in leadership, but a change in the rules.
00:44I'm Anastasia, and this is Think BRICS.
00:47For four years, we have tracked the evolution of the global self,
00:51from a collection of emerging markets to a strategic core that is rewriting the global script.
00:56Today, we break down why India's flexible geometry, the ability to stay in the room,
01:03skip a close, and open a channel to Kiev, is actually the stabilizing force that keeps the multipolar stable standing.
01:12Let's get into the mechanics of the 18th summit.
01:15Four critical pillars from this week are setting the table for New Delhi.
01:19First, the SEO 10 to 8 split.
01:24We will look at why India's consistent stance on the Belt and Road Initiative
01:28is a safeguard for the organization's diversity, not a sign of weakness.
01:34Second, the economic ledger.
01:37We are moving past slogans.
01:38Third, we will look at the 900 billion US dollars in non-dollar trade, even if it sounds bizarre,
01:46already on the books and the fight over the unfinished bank.
01:52Third, the Suez pivot.
01:55Why President sees three days in Cairo represent a vital maritime redundancy for the entire Eurasian project.
02:03Fourth, the side signals.
02:06From the Russian secret services warnings in the Western Hemisphere to Lukashenko's calls for speed,
02:14we look at the pressure building from the smaller members.
02:18The SEO summit in Bishkek running from August 31st to September 1st produced 28 formal documents.
02:27On the surface, it looked like business as usual.
02:30A five-year biodiversity plan, the launch of a green technology corridor, and statements on regional security.
02:39But the Bishkek declaration highlighted a structural reality we often discuss on this channel.
02:46Ten formal members sat at that table.
02:49Eight signed the endorsement for the Belt and Road Initiative.
02:54India, as it has done consistently since 2017, withheld.
02:59To the Western observer, this looks like a split.
03:02To a BRICS insider, it's a demonstration of institutional maturity.
03:08India's refusal is rooted in a principled stance on sovereignty and territorial integrity,
03:15specifically regarding projects that pass through disputed regions.
03:19By staying in the room and signing the other 27 documents, including the statement that the SEO is not a
03:27military political bloc,
03:29India proves that these organizations aren't about forest consensus.
03:34They are about flexible geometry.
03:37This sets the stage for the 18th BRICS summit on September 12th, 13th.
03:43India has been a hyperactive chair this year, hosting over 350 meetings in 25 different cities.
03:50The theme, building for resilience, innovation, cooperation, and sustainability, isn't just a collection of buzzwords.
03:58It's an attempt to pivot the BRICS focus toward digital public infrastructure and agricultural tech, areas where India leads.
04:09Ensuring the bloc's agenda isn't dominated by any single member's vision.
04:14When we talk about BRICS power, we have to look at the volumes, not the adjectives.
04:19In 2025, trade between Russia and SEO members cost 400 billion US dollars.
04:26China's trade with the same group topped 500 billion US dollars.
04:32The most important metric, 98% of that Russia SEO trade was settled in national currencies.
04:41We are no longer talking about a theoretical alternative to the dollar.
04:47We are talking about a 900 billion reality.
04:51But this growth brings its own set of internal challenges.
04:57At the expanded SEO plus session, members like Belarus and Russia pushed for the working SEO development bank
05:06to move from the drawing board to the real world.
05:11The friction here isn't about if a bank should exist, but how it should be built.
05:17Moscow and Minsk want a sanction-proof clearinghouse to protect against Western pressure.
05:25India, however, favors a bilateral and voluntary approach,
05:30using local currency pairs like the rupee ruble or rupee dirham.
05:36But why?
05:38Because New Delhi wants to ensure that dollarization doesn't simply lead to yuanization.
05:44They are advocating for a decentralized financial architecture
05:49where no single currency, Western or Eastern, holds a monopoly on trade.
05:55Analyzing this shift requires independence.
05:58Think BRICS isn't funded by lobby shops or state underwriters.
06:02We rely on you.
06:04Your support matters a lot for us, even if it's a like or a comment.
06:10After the Bishkek summit, President Xi didn't return to Beijing.
06:14He went to the water.
06:16A three-day visit to Cairo highlighted a $10 billion Chinese position in Egypt,
06:23with $4 billion specifically targeted at the third phase of the Teda-Suetz industrial corridor.
06:31There are already 200 Chinese companies on the ground in that zone.
06:35For Egypt and much of the global south, this represents tangible steel and jobs.
06:41But for the broader BRICS framework, it represents strategic redundancy.
06:46While land-based corridors face geopolitical hurdles,
06:50like the disputed territory issues that keep India from signing onto the Belt and Road Initiative,
06:57the maritime routes through the Suetz remain the world's most vital artery.
07:02India's response isn't to block these projects,
07:06but to offer alternatives like the International North-South Transport Corridor and Maritime Middle Corridors.
07:16Uzbekistan's President Mirziyoyev recently proposed a partnership network of regional organizations,
07:22linking the SCO with ASEAN, the GCC and the EAEU.
07:29This is the ultimate vision of the multiplayer world,
07:33a web of connectivity, where no single state owns the nodes.
07:39It allows India to cooperate on a project-by-project basis
07:43while keeping its veto on the map where it matters most.
07:47As we approach to the new Delhi summit,
07:51the side traffic is signaling that the theater of friction is expanding.
07:55On August 17th, the SVR Russian-Uran intelligence went public
08:01with a warning that captured battlefield weapons from the Ukrainian conflict
08:05were being moved into Venezuela, Colombia and Mexico.
08:10This is a massive strategic signal.
08:13By bringing Latin America into the security briefing,
08:16Russia is telling the West that the global South is no longer a backyard for any single power.
08:23It's a pre-emptive move to show that the consequences of Eurasian conflicts
08:28can migrate to the Western Hemisphere.
08:31This puts India's engagement in Kiev in a new light.
08:35Dhrashankar's stop in Ukraine just days before hosting BRICS acts as a diplomatic counterweight.
08:43It demonstrates that the global South isn't a silent partner in the security escalations.
08:49It proves India can be a mediator who keeps the discounted oil flowing
08:55while keeping the diplomatic door open,
08:58preventing the bloc from being characterized solely by the friction between major powers.
09:03You know, the reason for your question, I get that.
09:09But I think it's also important that all of you get the challenges of providing for energy for 1.4
09:18billion people
09:19at a time when the world energy situation is very, very difficult.
09:25So, I would say, I mean, this is something where clearly the Ukraine side has its perspective,
09:35which we respect, and we have ours, which I would expect others to also respect.
09:40But let me just add this.
10:05Last but not least, the pressure inside the BRICS group is coming also from the smaller members.
10:12The president of Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko, dropped the protocol-heavy tone in Bishkek
10:17to point out that the big three, China, India, and Russia,
10:22haven't yet delivered the unified financial tools
10:26that states under heavy Western sanctions need to survive.
10:31His quote,
10:45This week in the Global South didn't produce a bloc in the traditional sense.
10:50It produced something more complex, an overlapping consensus.
10:56A trade clearing system moving nearly a trillion dollars in local coins,
11:01a Chinese president securing the sweats,
11:04and an Indian foreign minister standing in Kyiv.
11:08India is using its role as host to prove that the strength of BRICS doesn't come from total uniformity.
11:16It comes from the ability of states to stay in the room,
11:20contribute to the collective bank,
11:22and still mark exactly where their national interests begin.
11:27The consistency of the signatures we saw in Bishkek isn't a sign of a table breaking.
11:33It's the sign of a table that is finally wide enough to hold everyone.
11:39The real test begins next week in New Delhi,
11:42where we see the final declarations roadmap for food security and the new financial rails.
11:50We will be there to break it down.
11:53And I would really love to hear your thoughts on these topics.
11:57And for those of you who made it to the very end,
12:01thanks so much for watching.
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