00:00I also want to bring into this conversation Ambassador Meera Shankar, India's former ambassador to the United States of America.
00:07Ambassador Shankar, welcome.
00:10Your take on this iconic backdrop and what the Prime Minister said, the Ramanathiswami temple,
00:17the civilizational ties, as Pranay was also indicating, between India and China, and of course the Prime Minister's message.
00:26Well, certainly it emphasizes the civilizational links between India and China over the centuries,
00:37but it also looks to the future, to new maritime trade routes, let's say, between Vali Vostok and Chennai.
00:47So it's not just something which is reiterating age-old civilizational ties,
00:54but looking at how we can modernize them using our ancient civilizational understandings
01:05and coupling that with economic trade and investment.
01:12Yes. And the Prime Minister ambassador also referred to, you know, initially when he said BRICS,
01:20an idea that started 20 years ago, now it's celebrating its 20th anniversary.
01:26It's like, you know, someone has now matured. There are responsibilities.
01:31Now you need to take it forward.
01:33Do you see a roadmap that the Prime Minister is now talking about how BRICS can now start delivering on
01:41ideas
01:41that it's deliberated upon for 20 years?
01:44Well, BRICS is now, you know, a much larger group.
01:51It has endured for 20 years, despite geopolitical differences between many of the members.
01:59And it operates in the space of geopolitics and security, not so much,
02:08but more in the area of trade, investment, finance, sustainability, and people-to-people ties.
02:28For instance, we want BRICS to be a non-Western group rather than an anti-Western group.
02:38We wanted to create additional space for developing countries to pursue their own policies
02:49without the pressure which may come from one bloc or the other.
02:55And at the same time, we want to reform the existing systems of international governance.
03:04So this is something where BRICS now plays a larger role because they account for nearly 50% of the
03:13world's population,
03:15over 40% of world GDP, and over 25% of global trade.
03:22So the bloc certainly carries more weight.
03:27And as somebody says, their combined GDP probably now is higher than that of the G7.
03:35In fact, the Russian president remarked about it, that the combined GDP of G7 countries is 18%
03:41and BRICS is now 40% and rising.
03:44But tell me this, Ambassador, how would the Western bloc be looking at this BRICS summit in New Delhi?
03:52Would they look at it as an alliance of sorts of anti-West countries?
03:57Or would they look at it as a non-West alliance?
04:00Would they look at it with suspicion?
04:02I think there is a mix of both.
04:06You know, because it hasn't really been that effective.
04:10And now, in the past, and now you have countries like Egypt, UAE, Iran,
04:17Iran, which don't necessarily see eye to eye.
04:22You have countries like India, which has good links with the West.
04:28You have countries like China and Russia, which may want a slightly more overt posture against the West.
04:38So you have different interests.
04:40And I think India's skill will lie in balancing these interests and ensuring that BRICS moves forward in a practical
04:49way,
04:49which serves the interests of all the countries.
04:54Secondly, I think for India, it's a balancing act also because while you want to create space for developing countries,
05:05get them more voice in international institutions, including international financial institutions of governance,
05:15at the same time, India has to be cautious that it does not become a vehicle for expanding or accelerating
05:25Chinese dominance.
05:26So I think this balancing act is something which we have to do.
05:32And I'm sure that we'll see that in terms of the outcome.
05:38This BRICS summit is looking at, you know, trade, creating networks of trade, investment and finance.
05:49Specifically, there have been proposals for, you know, settlement of trade accounts and local currencies.
05:58Secondly, there is this proposal to, you know, expand the sphere of lending of the new development bank,
06:09which was set up, which has a hundred billion dollars contributed by all the countries.
06:15And there are proposals to set up, you know, some new infrastructure, financial institution,
06:24or one which could also look at climate change.
06:27But at the end of the day, we'll have to see what concrete decisions emerge from the summit, because everybody...
06:36Ma'am, for a moment, I want to focus on these images that are coming in.
06:40The prime minister and the Chinese president, Xi Jinping, spent some time at this iconic backdrop of the pillars at
06:49the Sri Ramanathya Swami temple at Rameshwaram.
06:54You know, is that perhaps an effort to tell the Chinese about the historic ties?
06:59Because there is conversation around this a little longer than with the others.
07:05Well, it's certainly, you recall, Xi Jinping's visit to India.
07:11It began in Mahabalipuram with the backdrop of the ancient architecture.
07:18So, it's signaling that India, too, is an ancient civilization with its own history and culture, which is very rich.
07:27But as I said, it's also looking at future links through the oceans.
07:37Yes, you know, you referred specifically to the Chennai-Bladivostok link.
07:41We've been talking about India seeking to invest or tie up more with Russia on the Arctic, you know, seafaring
07:49route in times to come.
07:51Shipbuilding is one area where India is really trying to focus on very extensively.
07:56Now, when you look at the BRICS architecture, is that an apprehension only in India or among other members that
08:04you cannot, while everyone's saying you cannot let America dominate the world order,
08:10at the same time, nobody would want China to dominate or to be the replacement power either.
08:16So, are there effective countermeasures being put in place to ensure America is not replaced by China and same pressures
08:23work on the world?
08:24You know, like, let's say, if you look at the trade settlement issue, see, BRICS countries at the moment prefer
08:35trade in local currencies,
08:36settlement in local currencies, rather than looking at a common currency, because the strongest currency would be the yuan.
08:46And actually domination by one currency, you know, replacing the dollar with the yuan may not be something that, you
08:56know, many countries are comfortable with.
08:59Certainly India is not, because we want this to be a more, you know, leveled structure where you don't have
09:09a pinnacle of authority and then, you know, the rest.
09:14So, I think it's important, as I said, for India to do this delicate balancing act.
09:22And we're the only ones who can actually do it at this point of time.
09:26But, of course, India, Russia, China, they're being seen as an alternate power structure.
09:34How would you respond to the criticism that India coming too close to Russia and China would, you know, alienate
09:42us?
09:42Or as some analysts seem to argue, America will not be too happy about it.
09:47Well, you know, I think for India, it's important to preserve its strategic autonomy.
09:53And the U.S. has been exerting unpredictable and sometimes irrational pressure on India.
10:02So, I think for India, it's important to preserve space for its own national goals, whether it is energy security,
10:15which at the moment, you know, because of the conflict in the Gulf, has been badly impacted.
10:22So, we have to import quite a lot from Russia.
10:26And the Russians have, in fact, shown a willingness to expand exports to India.
10:33So, it's coming at a very critical time for India.
10:38Ambassador, if I may, for a moment, while everyone's also talking about BRICS and BRICS outcomes,
10:43there's a lot of conversation around the story of the day, as some put it, is, you know,
10:49the conversation between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the Chinese President Xi Jinping
10:54in about two hours and 30 minutes from now, a reset of sorts, the fact that he's flown in for
11:00the BRICS summit,
11:01is it only because he expects India also to come and join BRICS summit in China?
11:06Or do you see a genuine effort to reset ties?
11:12I think both countries have been making an effort to reset ties, despite the constraints,
11:20because we don't know if the Chinese position on the border has shifted.
11:25In fact, recently, there was some account of border skirmishes in Arunachal.
11:31Taxing Arunachal.
11:33So, the border remains unresolved.
11:38On the trade side, China has a huge surplus with India.
11:44And India's dependency on Chinese inputs in many critical sectors has grown,
11:51whereas Chinese imports from India are very, very low.
11:56So, I think these, then I think China has put a block on sharing technology with India in critical sectors,
12:05including most recently battery technology for electric vehicles.
12:10So, I think that these are all issues which should be on the table when the two leaders meet.
12:19But the countries are trying to progress the relationship step by step.
12:26But Adi's multiple false starts, you know, I don't even want to go back to the Hindi-Chini bhai-bhai
12:33era in 62.
12:34If we were to talk about only the Narendra Modi government in the past 12 years,
12:382014, Prime Minister Narendra Modi invited Chinese President Xi Jinping to India to Ahmedabad.
12:43There was tension at the borders.
12:45Then, the 73-day Dolom standoff.
12:48Then, the Wuhan summit, the informal dialogue.
12:52Then, again, tensions at the borders.
12:54Then, Mamalapuram 2019, Galwan 2020.
12:57And that tension remained high till Kazan 2024.
13:01And then Tianjin and now here.
13:04So, multiple times we see the relationship go up, come down, go up, come down.
13:07Will this time be any different?
13:11Well, I think the relationship will stabilize much more if both sides are able to really, you know, have substantive
13:24movement on the border.
13:26Because as the border, till the border remains undefined, with conflicting claims from both sides, the possibility of border tensions
13:37remains.
13:38So, there is a kind of expectation that there may be some direction by the leaders to continue the process
13:54or accelerate it.
13:55Let's see, because the process of, you know, trying to restore some stability on the border after the Galwan tensions
14:08started when President Xi Jinping and Prime Minister Modi had met.
14:16At Kazan.
14:17Yes.
14:19And post-Kazan, then Tianjin and now New Delhi.
14:22The fact that he's come to New Delhi.
14:24This conversation.
14:25And we'll be keeping an eye on what happens at 5.30.
14:28And subsequently, the delegation that he's got along with him.
14:31Ambassador, stay with me.
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