00:00The United States is overhauling its nuclear strategy to prepare for future conflicts with
00:03China and Russia, including an option for immediate launch.
00:07An NBC report says the Department of Defense may revamp its nuclear strategy, greatly expanding
00:11the role of tactical nuclear weapons for potential conflicts with China and Russia.
00:16This nuclear strategy overhaul is reportedly being led by Elbridge Colby, the former Deputy
00:20Assistant Secretary for Defense Policy, who is known for planning defense policies during
00:24the Trump administration.
00:25According to the NBC report, the core of the new strategy is to move away from the
00:29existing structure where the president has to choose between conventional military force
00:33and a large-scale strategic nuclear attack in a nuclear crisis, and instead to secure a
00:38wider range of military options.
00:39So it seems that the nuclear strategy is being revised to provide the political leadership
00:44with a broader range of actual options for using nuclear weapons.
00:47When we usually think of nuclear war, we imagine large-scale nuclear missile launches like the
00:52massive strategic nuclear attack scene in Fallout.
00:54However, the U.S. considers the possibility of such large-scale attacks to be very low,
00:58so they believe it's more realistic to always provide the option of small-scale tactical
01:02nuclear strikes.
01:03Is it Deputy Secretary Colby's argument that this is to prepare for future conflicts?
01:07It's not confirmed yet, but since the person who has been shaping the Trump administration's
01:11defense strategy so far is directly leading this, it seems highly likely that this nuclear
01:15strategy will also be adopted.
01:17If this strategic overhaul is finalized, South Korea and Japan will be directly affected.
01:22The original purpose of the U.S. revising its nuclear strategy is not to actually start
01:27a nuclear war and bring about catastrophe.
01:29It's the fact that the United States can deploy its nuclear weapons in real operations at any
01:33time, depending on the situation.
01:35The intention is to make this fact clear to the outside world, to deter hostile states
01:39from provoking in the first place, and to secure strong deterrence against war.
01:43This reorganization mainly targets China and Russia, whose power is growing fast.
01:48The United States is highly likely to consider redeploying tactical nuclear weapons to South
01:52Korea and Japan, which are geographically very close to China and Russia, or sharing related
01:56capabilities as a key means to block the threats from these two major powers.
02:00The aim of the new nuclear strategy is to make China and Russia firmly believe that even
02:05if the U.S. mainland is not directly attacked, the U.S. is always ready to use nuclear weapons
02:10if its allies are in crisis.
02:13Tactical nuclear weapons were once deployed in South Korea.
02:16Since 1958, the U.S. forces in Korea operated tactical nuclear weapons.
02:21In 1991, all tactical nuclear weapons were withdrawn under the Joint Declaration on the Denuclearization
02:27of the Korean Peninsula.
02:28If the nuclear strategy shifts, redeploying tactical nuclear weapons could be reconsidered.
02:33Despite the 1991 Joint Declaration on the Denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, North Korea is already
02:38nuclear-armed.
02:39We definitely need to respond to that as well.
02:42The U.S. Extended Deterrent System assures allies like South Korea or Japan that a nuclear
02:47attack on them will be treated as an attack on the U.S. itself, prompting a strong retaliation.
02:53However, there have long been doubts about whether the United States would risk its own major
02:58cities by launching large-scale strategic nuclear weapons in response if China or Russia would
03:03Russia conducted a limited nuclear attack or tactical provocation.
03:07The credibility of extended deterrence, questioned by allies and adversaries, is open to interpretation.
03:13The United States is addressing this by broadening practical response options focused on tactical
03:17nuclear weapons.
03:18Of course, there is some opposition from certain quarters.
03:21Tactical nuclear weapons are clearly less powerful and have a more limited range than strategic
03:26nuclear weapons, which makes them relatively easier for political leaders to use.
03:30However, since the likelihood of using nuclear weapons increases, there is a higher risk that
03:34it could escalate into a nuclear war.
03:36Still, the United States appears determined to push this through.
03:40That's because China's nuclear capabilities are expanding explosively.
03:44The U.S. Department of Defense has stated that China will have more than 600 nuclear warheads
03:49operational by mid-2024.
03:51That's already a significant increase.
03:52Still, China is expected to have over 1,000 nuclear warheads by 2030 and keep expanding
03:58its nuclear capabilities through at least 2035.
04:00The U.S. Department of Defense sees China's actions as efforts to move closer to parity
04:05with U.S. nuclear capabilities.
04:07According to a report published by the U.S. Department of Defense, this expansion means
04:10that China is claiming the ability to inflict a much higher level of overwhelming damage
04:14on its adversaries in the event of a nuclear exchange.
04:17It also showed the United States is pursuing this.
04:19The U.S. Department of Defense has stated that China possesses the world's most advanced
04:24hypersonic missiles.
04:25For the United States, China is clearly a serious threat.
04:29With China expanding its nuclear capabilities, the United States must quickly upgrade its own
04:33nuclear forces in response.
04:35Recently, China has quickly boosted its military by expanding its hypersonic missiles, mobile
04:40intercontinental ballistic missiles, and nuclear submarines.
04:43The United States is boosting military presence in key Indo-Pacific areas like Guam, Japan, and
04:48the Philippines to maintain its strong stance against China.
04:51The most critical factor to watch out for here is the possibility that China, backed by
04:55its enhanced nuclear capabilities, might undertake risky military actions.
04:58As China's nuclear retaliation capabilities become more advanced, there is a risk that the
05:02United States, being aware of the threat of a nuclear attack on its own homeland, may hesitate
05:07or be reluctant to intervene militarily on behalf of its Asian allies.
05:10This means that the way Russia used nuclear threats against Europe to block direct Western military
05:15intervention in the Ukraine crisis could be repeated in East Asia as well.
05:19The moment China judges that it can use its powerful nuclear forces as a kind of shield
05:24to undermine America's will to defend, U.S. allies and partner countries in the Asian region will
05:29face an unprecedented security threat.
05:31If China thinks the risk of direct conflict with the United States is lower, it may use more
05:36aggressive military pressure on neighboring allies.
05:39This scenario is not just speculation, but a real security challenge that is being seriously
05:44analyzed by the Hudson Institute, a key diplomatic and security think tank located in Washington, D.C.
05:49U.S. policy experts are increasingly warning through reports and discussions that China's nuclear
05:55buildup is destabilizing East Asia's security order.
05:59Very recently, China even launched an SLBM into international waters in the Pacific.
06:03The Chinese military said it successfully launched an SLBM carrying a training dummy warhead into
06:09the Pacific from a single strategic nuclear submarine.
06:12This missile is believed to be an SLBM with a range of up to 10,000 kilometers.
06:17At that time, although it did not pass through South Korean airspace because South Korea is
06:21a neighboring country, China did notify in advance about the SLBM launch.
06:25Pacific countries strongly protested against this, which is the problem.
06:29Immediately, Penny, the Australian foreign minister, stated that such actions
06:33undermine regional stability. She said that Australia sees this test launch as part of
06:37China's rapid military buildup and it clearly shows a lack of transparency and assurance about
06:41China's intentions, which is what countries in the region expect.
06:44The Japanese government expressed serious concern over China's increased military activity and urged
06:50China to reconsider further test launches. South Korea did not issue any particular statement.
06:55As China's nuclear capabilities are being strengthened like this, the United States is also hurriedly
06:59rebuilding its own nuclear forces. China's plan to boost nuclear warheads and launch SLBMs into the
07:05Pacific stems from a major change in its security policy. In the past, China publicly declared a
07:11no-first-use policy, stating that it would not use nuclear weapons first unless the other side used them
07:16first. It was an attitude of maintaining only the minimum nuclear force necessary for defensive purposes.
07:21However, recently, as China has rapidly completed its nuclear triad system, including hypersonic missiles,
07:26mobile intercontinental ballistic missiles, and nuclear-powered submarines, the prevailing
07:29assessment is that the previous principle has become virtually meaningless. This is because by
07:33securing powerful preemptive strike capabilities and diversified means of operation, China has
07:38shifted to a structure where it can even consider the option of neutralizing the opponent's key
07:41military facilities first in the event of a contingency. China's launch of an SLBM into the
07:46Pacific high seas also has a strategic purpose that goes beyond a simple show of force.
07:51This action showcases China's strong nuclear power projection capability beyond the First and Second
07:56Island chains, its East Asian Maritime Defense Lines. This effort aims to implement the Anti-Access
08:01and Area Denial Strategy, which seeks to block U.S. aircraft carriers and underwater assets from entering
08:06the Taiwan Strait or South China Sea during a military conflict. This strategy aims to build a huge
08:11defensive wall backed by nuclear forces to completely block U.S. access to the Pacific, not just set up a
08:17physical barrier. The strategic intention is to preemptively block the U.S. willingness to
08:21intervene in support of its allies by sending a warning that if U.S. military forces enter,
08:25they would have to risk a full-scale nuclear conflict. If the U.S. changes its nuclear strategy
08:31this way, it could better deter China by allowing more flexibility with tactical nuclear weapons.
08:36Mm-hm
08:37Bueno,
08:38to
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