00:00Currently, a significant number of Koreans have started to think that we should have nuclear weapons as well.
00:04Even if it's not about developing our own nuclear arms,
00:07there were quite a few opinions suggesting the redeployment of tactical nuclear weapons.
00:11According to a recent public opinion poll,
00:13when asked about redeploying U.S. tactical nuclear weapons in our country,
00:1675.1% of respondents said they were in favor.
00:20Among them, 17.2% responded that they were opposed.
00:23The percentage of people agreeing to redeploy tactical nuclear weapons turned out to be very high.
00:28What's more, it's interesting when you look at the age groups.
00:31We could see that the approval rate among people in their 20s and 30s was very high.
00:34In their 20s, 88.4% supported the redeployment of tactical nuclear weapons.
00:39In their 30s, 86.3% supported the redeployment of tactical nuclear weapons.
00:44The age group with the lowest approval rate was people in their 50s,
00:47but even among them, the approval rate was as high as 66.5%.
00:51In particular, public opinion was also very high regarding the development of our own nuclear weapons.
00:56When asked what response the government should prioritize,
00:59the most common answer was strengthening the U.S. nuclear umbrella and missile defense capabilities
01:04at 36.3%, followed by developing our own nuclear weapons at 26.9%.
01:09Notably, 16.9% supported redeploying U.S. tactical nuclear weapons.
01:14Public support for South Korea's nuclear armament has grown each year.
01:18A Korea Gallup poll in January 2024 found 72.8% in favor.
01:22The public support for nuclear armament, which was 56.5% in 2023, has recently reached the 70-80%
01:30range.
01:30Naturally, one of the biggest reasons for the growing support among Koreans for nuclear armament is North Korea.
01:35Currently, North Korea is known to possess between 60 and 150 nuclear weapons.
01:40Not stopping there, it is analyzed that North Korea is aiming to increase its nuclear arsenal
01:45by more than 300 within the next 10 years in order to secure a second-strike capability
01:49that would allow it to retaliate with surviving nuclear forces even if attacked by the United States or South Korea.
01:55As the perception grows that North Korea's nuclear capabilities are continuously expanding,
01:59it is inevitable that public anxiety about national security among the South Korean public will also increase.
02:04North Korea has recently kept up military pressure on South Korea and the U.S.
02:08by repeatedly launching ballistic missiles.
02:10In addition, as South Korea pushes forward with the development of nuclear-powered submarines,
02:14North Korea has even issued threats suggesting it could carry out retaliatory attacks
02:17at a level that would make survival impossible.
02:19When South Korea seeks new military capabilities,
02:22North Korea responds by referencing nuclear weapons.
02:25When this situation keeps repeating, the public can't help but question
02:29whether the issue of North Korea's nuclear weapons
02:31can really be resolved through diplomatic negotiations alone.
02:34However, there was an even more noteworthy result in this latest public opinion poll.
02:38South Korea is protected by the U.S. nuclear umbrella,
02:41meaning the U.S. would respond with overwhelming force,
02:44including nuclear weapons, if North Korea attacked South Korea with nuclear weapons.
02:47When asked about the U.S. nuclear umbrella's effectiveness in a real war,
02:52opinions were evenly divided.
02:53If North Korea nukes South Korea,
02:55the U.S. would likely retaliate with nuclear weapons,
02:58despite risking a nuclear attack itself.
03:0041.8% of respondents said they believe so,
03:03while 41.7% said they do not.
03:05The difference was only 0.1 percentage points.
03:08The reason why the results are important
03:09is that the issue of whether or not to trust the U.S. nuclear umbrella
03:12is being perceived by the Korean people as a real security concern.
03:16There are doubts the United States would retaliate with nuclear weapons
03:19if North Korea launched a nuclear attack on Seoul,
03:21even if it risked losing New York.
03:23If confidence in U.S. defense of South Korea weakens,
03:26calls for securing our own deterrent against North Korea's nuclear threat will grow.
03:31That's why the survey found strong support for developing our own nuclear weapons.
03:35If more people feel that it's hard to fully trust the U.S. nuclear umbrella,
03:39while North Korea continues to increase its nuclear weapons and threaten nuclear attacks,
03:43public opinion that we should have our own independent nuclear deterrent could become even stronger.
03:47Many believe that simply having nuclear forces ready to respond will deter North Korea from attacking,
03:54even if we never need to use them.
03:56So what do you think about nuclear armament?
03:58Please leave your thoughts in the comments.
04:00If we assume that South Korea chooses nuclear armament,
04:02there are mainly two directions to consider.
04:04One is developing our own nuclear weapons, which is independent nuclear armament,
04:08and the other is redeploying U.S. tactical nuclear weapons on the Korean peninsula,
04:13which is tactical nuclear deployment.
04:14First, let's look at independent nuclear armament.
04:17Although South Korea does not possess nuclear weapons,
04:19it is regarded by the international community as a country
04:22with significant nuclear technology and industrial infrastructure.
04:25Therefore, among experts, there is an analysis that if South Korea makes a political decision,
04:30the time required to develop nuclear weapons could be shorter than that of other countries.
04:33There have also been related discussions at the Seoul National University Nuclear Policy Center,
04:38and, considering realistic conditions,
04:40an analysis suggested that at least 15 to 18 months would be needed.
04:43When combining the evaluations of other experts,
04:46a period of about 18 to 55 months is being mentioned.
04:49However, since South Korea lacks the reprocessing facilities needed to develop nuclear weapons,
04:54technical and institutional challenges may occur during development.
04:57The issue is not so much the process of making nuclear weapons itself, but the reason behind it.
05:01The moment South Korea pursues independent nuclear armament,
05:03it is highly likely that it will be difficult to avoid conflict with the international community.
05:06As a nuclear non-proliferation treaty signatory,
05:09South Korea would directly conflict with the global non-proliferation regime if it pursued nuclear weapons.
05:15As a result, there is a possibility of diplomatic pressure and economic sanctions from the United States and other Western
05:20countries.
05:20And it is especially important to consider that China may strongly oppose as well.
05:24Given the strong economic ties between China and South Korea,
05:27China's response could heavily impact the domestic economy.
05:30Thus, independent nuclear armament cannot be judged solely by the technology and time required to acquire nuclear weapons.
05:37The public's ability to handle economic shocks,
05:40companies' resilience to sanctions and export limits,
05:42and the government's capacity to maintain its policy amid diplomatic isolation all become key variables.
05:48From the perspective of a regime pursuing nuclear armament,
05:51there can also be considerable political burdens.
05:53If the economy worsens and there are shocks in exports in the financial market,
05:57public support for the government could fall sharply.
06:00The most realistic burden is that the national economy could be shaken simply by pursuing nuclear armament.
06:05On the other hand, there are definitely military effects that come with independent nuclear armament.
06:10If Korea secures its own nuclear capabilities,
06:12we won't just have to wait for the U.S. to respond to North Korea's nuclear attacks.
06:16We will have our own nuclear retaliation capability.
06:18This would create a different deterrence framework from the current one,
06:21where we have to wonder whether the United States would definitely retaliate with nuclear weapons
06:25if North Korea attacked South Korea.
06:27Nuclear armed countries struggle to decide on full-scale attacks
06:31since each must consider the other's ability to retaliate.
06:34In fact, there have been cases of military clashes even between nuclear armed countries,
06:38but it is assessed that simply possessing nuclear weapons itself
06:41has the effect of making it difficult for the other side to decide on a full-scale attack.
06:45Therefore, if South Korea possesses nuclear weapons,
06:47it is likely that North Korea would feel much more burdened
06:50when deciding to launch a large-scale attack against South Korea.
06:53Another key change is nuclear retaliation capability.
06:56If North Korea uses nuclear weapons and South Korea has its own,
07:00we could respond directly without waiting for the United States.
07:03This capability alone can help deter North Korea's nuclear attacks.
07:07However, the moment we pursue nuclear armament,
07:10the potential for economic shock and international isolation is also very high.
07:13So developing our own nuclear weapons would be a choice
07:15that requires us to bear military, economic, and diplomatic costs together.
07:19What about redeploying tactical nuclear weapons?
07:21The United States is updating its nuclear forces to offer flexible operational responses.
07:28Tactical nuclear weapons are being discussed as an option
07:30that can be used not only in situations of large-scale strategic nuclear war,
07:34but also in limited military conflicts.
07:36So it's an issue South Korea can't help but pay attention to.
07:39The United States once deployed tactical nuclear weapons in Korea.
07:43From 1958 to 1991,
07:45U.S. Forces Korea operated tactical nuclear weapons,
07:48deploying various types of U.S. nuclear forces on the Korean Peninsula.
07:51As the Cold War ended,
07:53the George H.W. Bush administration withdrew overseas tactical nuclear weapons.
07:57The 1991 Joint Declaration on the Denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula
08:00led to the removal of all U.S. tactical nuclear weapons in Korea.
08:04The redeployment of tactical nuclear weapons differs from having our own arsenal
08:08as it involves returning nuclear forces that were previously on the Korean Peninsula.
08:12If tactical nuclear weapons are redeployed,
08:14since South Korea would not be developing nuclear weapons on its own,
08:17there is the advantage of avoiding issues related to the NPT
08:20or conflicts with the international non-proliferation regime
08:23that could arise from developing its own nuclear weapons.
08:26Because South Korea wouldn't directly produce or possess nuclear weapons,
08:29it can also be pursued within the framework of the alliance with the United States.
08:32Compared to developing its own nuclear arsenal,
08:35this option may bring less diplomatic and economic strain.
08:38Still, redeploying tactical nuclear weapons presents tough challenges.
08:42The main concern is if the U.S. is willing to use nuclear weapons.
08:46Even with U.S. tactical nukes in South Korea,
08:48the U.S. retains sole authority over their use.
08:51A separate question is whether the United States would retaliate with nuclear weapons
08:55if North Korea used them against South Korea.
08:57From the U.S. perspective,
08:58the moment they respond with nuclear weapons to North Korea's nuclear attack,
09:01not only do they risk further nuclear attacks from North Korea,
09:03but even the U.S. mainland could be exposed to the threat of nuclear attack.
09:06Therefore, just because tactical nuclear weapons are deployed in South Korea,
09:09it cannot be assumed that the United States will definitely carry out nuclear retaliation.
09:13For South Korea, this is the biggest source of anxiety.
09:16If North Korea launches a nuclear attack
09:18and the U.S. hesitates to respond with nuclear weapons due to escalation fears,
09:22deploying tactical nuclear weapons in South Korea will still have limited deterrence effect.
09:26The main issue with redeploying tactical nuclear weapons
09:29is ensuring trust that the United States would use them in an emergency,
09:33not whether they're physically in South Korea.
09:35This is why if we pursue the redeployment of tactical nuclear weapons,
09:38we must also discuss the conditions under which the United States would use nuclear weapons,
09:42the consultation procedures between South Korea and the United States,
09:45and issues of command and control.
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