00:00Do you believe that this is really Iran's last chance? Should they?
00:05I think the Iranians want to deal because it will be good for their own economy because they're
00:10suffering under the weight of U.S. strikes over the course of the past five months and as well as
00:16the embargo that the United States has imposed through its blockade of the Persian Gulf. So
00:23they want an end to this but they're not prepared to relinquish what they believe is the major
00:29strategic leverage they gained from this war and that is control of the Strait of Hormuz.
00:33We are I think at this point close to an agreement that would echo some of the language in the
00:39MOU that
00:40was signed last month but perhaps with a bit more specificity and would perhaps provide a little
00:46bit more longevity to some kind of an end to the war. Shocking report Suzanne by Reuters this morning
00:55the U.S. Army has used up quote virtually all unquote of its long-range missiles during the
01:03conflict with Iran. Are we at the point now where our munitions levels are dictating strategic
01:09decisions? Yes I believe that we are and I actually think we've been at that point for quite some time.
01:15I think that it was the concern about both interceptors and precision strike missiles and
01:20attack arms. That was one of the major factors in driving the Trump administration to agree to the memorandum
01:27of understanding with Iran last month. And it is a major I think point of hesitation for the administration
01:34particularly from the Department of War whose leaders have articulated a real concern about returning to full scale war with
01:41Iran simply because of the readiness implications that it leaves for the United States military not just with respect to
01:48the
01:48the Middle East but with respect to other theaters as well.
01:53Well so if Iran understands this if this is reported in media and they hear about it and assume that
02:01it is true why would they be
02:03negotiating with the U.S. right now? Does it not signal that actually they could wait us out?
02:09I think they could wait us out but it would come at a high cost to their own economy. The
02:13blockade is having its impact. The Iranians would like to
02:17get back to trying to rebuild what was damaged and there was considerable damage to Iran's civilian infrastructure as well
02:24as its military
02:25infrastructure during the war. They have to consolidate a regime which already lost a significant number of players and they
02:34know that their own people were seriously dissatisfied before the war began with the state of the economy.
02:40So there are some real pressure but I think the Iranians are more resilient than we gave them credit for
02:45and they are prepared to kind of deploy
02:47that resilience as leverage in the negotiations. It sounds as though they're getting most of what they wanted out of
02:54the terms that we're hearing about in the media at this point.
02:58How many times will the president be taken seriously in his threats if he continues to pull them back either
03:05by request of Iran's neighbors or in hopes of a deal?
03:08The New York Post this morning writing that it is now 13 times. This is the 13th final ultimatum that
03:17he has delivered. What do the Iranians think of that?
03:21So it is a bit like a theatrical performance at this point. I think the Iranians have taken the measure
03:27of President Trump. They've assessed both the vulnerability of the U.S. economy and the wider global economy to a
03:34long term closure of the Strait of Hormuz as well as the political consequences for the president if there were
03:40to be a disruption that impacted oil prices and the wider economy in advance of the midterm elections this fall.
03:47So, you know, they appreciate that his bluster is just that. But I think there's always the chance that he
03:57does deliver. And they've now experienced two wars, the June 12-day war in 2025 and this longer war and
04:05more ambitious war where the Iranians appear to have survived.
04:08But they've got a lot of work to do if they want to hang on to power.
04:14Suzanne, I wonder what you make of Bloomberg's reporting today, that Iran is actively considering allowing European nations to come
04:21in and help with the demining effort in the Strait of Hormuz.
04:25Is that surprising to you or is it in keeping with what you're suggesting where Iran does want to see
04:30this deal happen in some way because of the pressure that they're experiencing?
04:37Well, it is a shift in the position that the Iranians have articulated over the course of recent weeks and
04:43months.
04:44They have suggested that only they should be permitted to do the demining because only they know where the mines
04:49might be.
04:50I think, you know, the Iranians are probably looking toward the future and developing some kind of an opening with
04:58the Europeans as to their advantage.
05:00We'll see if they actually make good on this and whether they actually do let the European companies and countries
05:06to come in and participate in this demining because the mines are just one of the many forms of control
05:13that Iran has been asserting over the Strait.
05:15And once the entire Strait is free, it is more likely that the rest of the world will seek alternative
05:22routes that are outside of Iran's control.
05:26Suzanne, do you believe either side's version when it comes to the status of negotiations?
05:34I think it's very hard to take seriously what we've been hearing because the president has his own incentives to
05:41sort of inflate what he's hearing from the Iranians.
05:44He is either very, very negative or he's overwhelmingly positive, and neither one of those extremes sounds entirely persuasive to
05:51me.
05:52But the reporting at this point does suggest some of the public statements by Qatari mediators and others that they
05:58feel that they're getting close to some kind of an arrangement.
06:02I think it's inevitable that we'll be back in this position once again, that there will be some breakdown in
06:07terms of the understanding or the implementation of any agreement between the United States and Iran.
06:12I think it's likely, we're likely to see instability and occasional flare-ups and violence in the Gulf more widely,
06:20and especially around the Strait of Hormuz for the weeks and months to come.
06:23This is not a one-and-done solution to anything.
06:27So potentially still status quo or at least volatility come midterm Election Day in November?
06:34I think that's absolutely to be expected.
06:37This volatility is just going to be a function of the Persian Gulf economy for the foreseeable future.
06:44It will continue to drive investments in alternative routes that would avoid the Strait of Hormuz and other types of
06:51arrangements that enable greater resilience on the part of the Gulf states.
06:55They have experienced a tremendous disruption over the course of the past five-plus months, and they're in a position,
07:02I think, to ensure that they don't see that happen again.
Comments