00:00Hey, we just wanted to start with big picture stuff and sort of start at the beginning of this
00:04as this has extended and gotten to, I guess the stakes have been raised a little bit.
00:10Yeah.
00:10Explain who the Houthis are, who backs them, everything we need to know.
00:14For sure. So despite popular belief, the Houthis predated any kind of Iranian support.
00:20They're part of a clan that originally come from the northern highlands of Yemen.
00:25And they're very tribal. No one had really heard of them, even regionally, until the 1990s,
00:32when Yemen's south and north were unified and they became a far more prevalent and big voice within Yemen.
00:412014, they captured the capital, Sana'a, and that led to the Saudi-led coalition to intervene in Yemen,
00:49led to a huge, bloody war inside of the country for years. Ultimately, Saudi Arabia didn't fulfill their aims
00:57in, you know, upseating Yemen from the capital. And they, at the moment, control 25% of the population.
01:03What do they want?
01:05So they actually make their demands pretty consistent for the entirety of the war.
01:11And, you know, I mean, most days they say what they want. And that is, firstly, for Saudi to withdraw
01:18from Yemen.
01:19And what they mean by this is for them to stop funding their allies, Saudi allies in the country.
01:25They also want the lifting of all movement restrictions in Yemen.
01:29So since 2015, Saudi has limited movement going in and out of Houthi-controlled areas.
01:37That includes a partial closure of the Houthi-held Hodeidah port and also a closure of Sana'a airport.
01:44The Houthis want that access unlimited, but Saudi's argument was that Iranian weapons were reaching the group,
01:52which led to more fighting in the country.
01:55So what does this all mean in the context of the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran and the possibility of
02:02that conflict coming to an end,
02:03the Strait of Hormuz opening up? And, I mean, we're not even at the part about a nuclear discussion,
02:09but we can perhaps get to that if we have time.
02:11Yeah, for sure. So the Houthis have long wanted to capture Mocha, which sits right near Bab al-Mandab,
02:18which is, I would say, one of the world's most important choke point.
02:22It's essential for commercial goods and energy supplies going via Asia to Europe through the Suez Canal and vice versa,
02:32with Iran now closing the Strait of Hormuz, essentially,
02:35and the Houthis now basically having total control of Bab al-Mandab from the Yemeni side.
02:41This has made all the world's most important choke points.
02:46We have a map up, and I apologize for everybody on TV, but you see you've got Saudi Arabia.
02:52To the right is the Strait of Hormuz and, of course, Iran.
02:55Then you go down to the tip at the Gulf of Aden.
02:59Yeah, the Gulf of Aden.
03:00Aden, excuse me.
03:01The Bab al-Mandab Strait is, I would say, in the northwest side of Yemen,
03:09and that's where a small, I would say a small area on the shore,
03:15which I've actually been to before, and it's pretty dusty,
03:18that's where the Houthis captured in the past few days,
03:21and also they captured an island called Mayun Island,
03:23and that sits right in the middle of Bab al-Mandab, right?
03:27So, to be honest, the Houthis could already reach Saudi ships before the latest escalation,
03:33but this has really politically consolidated their control in the region.
03:37Is this an escalation?
03:39This is an escalation.
03:40Yemen hasn't seen this much fighting since the height of the Yemeni war,
03:44which was 2018, 2021.
03:46We've seen an uneasy truce, fragile truce between the Saudis and the Houthis since 2022.
03:52But what we're seeing today is both, you know, the Houthis controlling the Bab al-Mandab Strait,
03:58which fits Iran's wider regional strategy in light of the latest escalation with the U.S.,
04:02but also the Houthis have their own very local demands from the Saudis,
04:06which I mentioned earlier,
04:08and this seems like the best time for them to gain as much land as they can
04:13while everyone is distracted with Iran,
04:15in hope of gaining more concessions from the Saudis,
04:20while also fitting into Iran's wider regional strategy.
04:23Where's Israel in all of this?
04:25I mean, we have to wait and see, right?
04:28So, I think at the moment,
04:29everyone's waiting to see how Saudi Arabia will respond.
04:34The Yemeni government was hoping for Saudi to provide some kind of air support,
04:39but, you know, there's also questions on how much would air support help right now
04:42in order to capture those regions.
04:45I think Saudi, for its part, you know,
04:48they've been looking at the Houthi threats in recent days,
04:52and the main Houthi threats have been,
04:54if you dare to intervene in this conflict,
04:55we're going to strike your energy facilities.
04:58And, you know, we've already seen at the start of the week,
04:59Aramco facilities that were hit,
05:01now the east-to-west pipeline was again a hit.
05:04So, you know, the Saudis are really in a rock and a hard place, you know?
05:07And the east-west pipeline is supposed to be,
05:10I don't want to say a full alternative,
05:12because it can't be to the Strait of Hormuz,
05:14but there's been so much discussion of the east-west pipeline
05:16in the context of, okay, well, if we can't get oil through the strait,
05:20then we'll rely on this east-west pipeline,
05:21and if that's being targeted, then that's another area of concern.
05:24Absolutely.
05:25And the Houthis are not shy by making those threats as well.
05:28Well, how close are the Houthis and Iran?
05:31I mean, you know, this is the million-dollar question.
05:35You know, before the U.S.-Iran war,
05:38we saw the Houthis and Iran, their relationship.
05:42It was close.
05:44You know, they would talk about it,
05:45but it was still very unknown.
05:46What was the extent to it?
05:48I think since 2023 and the start of the Gaza war,
05:51you really saw the Houthis prove themselves
05:54as a vital clog within Iran's axis of resistance.
05:58You know, while Hezbollah was mainly depleted in Lebanon,
06:00the Houthis were able to carry out maritime strikes
06:02in the Red Sea, in the Gulf of Adam,
06:04and also, in their eyes, withstand U.S. and Israeli attacks.
06:08So I think Iran has now seen the Houthis in a different light.
06:12They've really proven themselves,
06:13and the Houthis themselves have become more proud and confident
06:17on what they can achieve.
06:18But I have to say, you know,
06:21the Houthis would not be where they are today
06:23without Iranian support, military expertise, training.
06:26But now we've reached a stage
06:28where the Houthis make their weapons by themselves.
06:30But is it safe to say they don't take moves
06:32without Iran knowing?
06:34Just got about 10 seconds.
06:35Yeah, so big military moves.
06:38It's difficult to say exactly,
06:40but I would say they wouldn't make those massive military decisions
06:43without the go-ahead from Iran.
06:45Amazing insight.
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