- 2 days ago
Warren Sharp joins the program to discuss what he believes Washington can do in 2026 and what other NFL teams can surprise this season.
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00:00Fired up to jump on the Rude Guest Hotline and talk to Mr. Warren Sharp.
00:04You can follow him at Sharp Football, and you can check out his 2026 NFL preview.
00:10Go to the website, Sharp Football, and you can order it right now.
00:13Get smarter before the season kicks off.
00:15Warren, what's up, dude? How you been?
00:17Hey, I'm doing great. I appreciate the plug on the book.
00:20And by the way, if you do want to check it out, use code COMMANDERS.
00:23You get it for 50% off.
00:24Oh, that's awesome.
00:25So excited camps are started here and looking forward to talking to some COMMANDERS with you guys.
00:30Yeah, dude.
00:32Maybe – well, let's start with the COMMANDERS because I don't know if you saw that Trey Burks was out
00:37today with some foot soreness.
00:39Could be nothing. Could be something.
00:41You know, we're not going to jump to conclusions.
00:43It's July 30th.
00:44But there's been so much speculation surrounding the COMMANDERS adding a veteran wide receiver anyway.
00:50For a while, that was Brandon Iyuk.
00:52I think that ship has kind of sailed.
00:53Now it is more on Steph Diggs.
00:56What do you think – what does your analysis say on the COMMANDERS wide receiver room as a whole?
01:03Well, I definitely think that they should do whatever they can to help improve it.
01:07I'm concerned about the depth.
01:10Now, Terry McLaurin has been an elite receiver.
01:13And he's also – you know, last year was an anomaly because he missed only three games his first six
01:20seasons and then appeared in a career low 10 games last year with his quad injury and other injuries, re
01:28-injuring the same quad, etc.
01:31So, I just think that – I mean, right now we have the COMMANDERS – I know your fans are
01:35going to like to hear this, but we have them ranked as the number 31 best wide receiver room around
01:40the NFL.
01:41And if they can somehow get Steph Diggs, they absolutely need to.
01:45I posted this earlier today on Twitter.
01:47I just think this is a great example of a team that went out and supported its quarterback on a
01:54rookie contract.
01:55Drake May was drafted in 2024.
01:58His OC at the time was Alex Van Pelt.
02:01They had the fifth cheapest wide receiver and tight end core did the Patriots.
02:06And their starting three wide receivers that year were K.J. Osborne, Pop Douglas, and Tyquan Thornton.
02:13Just two years later this season, they now have a new offense coordinator in Josh McDaniels, who's far better than
02:19Alex Van Pelt.
02:20They have the number nine most expensive receiving core between wide receivers and tight ends.
02:26And their three starting receivers this year are A.J. Brown, Romeo Dobbs, and K. Shambuti.
02:31That is when a team and a GM says, we believe in our young quarterback and we're going to try
02:38to surround him with talent while he is at his cheapest he will ever be.
02:42Jaden Daniels is in the same situation, but he's just not getting that influx of talent at the receiving position
02:48to make his life easier.
02:50And unfortunately, my fear is that the harder you make Jaden Daniels' job because you don't have talented receivers, the
02:58more he's going to put on his shoulders to do things, which we saw sometimes that can go sideways when
03:04he's holding on to the ball too long or trying to run downfield with it and making plays and gaining
03:09every extra yard.
03:10So I am a little bit worried, and I do think that they could do something more this offseason to
03:16add a new wide receiver.
03:18Dude, so let me pull that thread a bit.
03:19Let's say they add Diggs.
03:21I don't know if you agree with me.
03:22I think the IU ship has sailed.
03:24Let's say they add Diggs.
03:25You've got him at 31 now.
03:26What does adding a guy like Steph do to kind of where you would look at this receiving group?
03:33It's definitely not making it top 10, but it's helping a ton with a veteran receiver who can be on
03:40time where the quarterback needs him to be.
03:43Obviously, Diggs has lost his step, and I 100% agree with you.
03:46The IU ship has sailed.
03:48He burned that ship down himself.
03:50I have never seen something so disastrous happen.
03:53Burned the ships and got stranded on an island by himself with whatever money he had.
03:59I don't know if he's going to be able to get any more of that in the future.
04:02I do think Diggs vaults them outside the bottom 10.
04:06That vaults them back to around league average.
04:10It's kind of middle of the pack.
04:11That's far better.
04:12Middle of the pack, but that's far better than where they are right now.
04:15Yeah, I get that.
04:17The other thing in your – I like the Drake May comparison.
04:20I think since Rabel got up there, you know, they – one, getting McDaniels is huge.
04:25But even last year, signing Diggs, right?
04:27And a bit of a flyer coming off injury.
04:30But – and then this year, the A.J. Brown trade.
04:32How big – or I guess negative, if you feel that way.
04:36I doubt you do.
04:38But how big of a change do you think going from Cliff Kingsbury to David Blau is for Jaden Daniels?
04:46Yeah, I think obviously they needed to try something different, and I am excited to see some of the concepts
04:54because these are the concepts that are working more in the NFL to lean more on pre-spot motion, drop
05:03backs,
05:05cut the no huddle rate a little bit, get him under center a little bit more, you know,
05:10and then make adjustments to what works best for Jaden Daniels.
05:14Jaden Daniels doesn't operate much under center.
05:17He's worked under Cliff Kingsbury for two straight years, operated a lot of shotgun on a league high,
05:2293% of his drop backs, two full seasons.
05:25He's taken only 33 career drop backs from under center.
05:29They use very little pre-spot motion.
05:32They use a ton of no huddle.
05:34That's what he's used to.
05:36Now he's going to have this different system.
05:38I think it can't hurt to try something a little bit different.
05:42Look, in all fairness, we, I think everybody around the league, especially in D.C.,
05:47absolutely fell in love with Jaden Daniels' rookie season and how he took this commander's offense,
05:53getting all the way to the NFC championship game.
05:55But there's no doubt that O.C.s, or sorry, D.C.s around the league are making adjustments,
06:01figuring out ways to slow this offense down a bit from year one to year two.
06:05And so it's not easy enough to say, oh, well, Jaden Daniels should be healthy,
06:09although that's a major piece to the puzzle, is what Jaden Daniels is going to look like this year,
06:14is from a health perspective.
06:15I mean, he was only healthy legitimately for one game last season.
06:19Every single other week he appeared on the injury report.
06:22Yeah, week one, that was the only healthy game he played.
06:26And, I mean, he and Terry McLaurin, I think, were only healthy for three full days together.
06:32Sorry, five days together, week one and week two, which was a Thursday night football game.
06:37So from Sunday through Thursday, and once Thursday hit, they were both, you know, banged up.
06:42They only played two full games together.
06:44So I think just getting McLaurin out there and getting Jaden healthy is going to help him in 2026,
06:51but I don't think that alone was enough to see this offense show some signs of improvement.
06:56I think they did need to do a little bit more,
06:58and hopefully it's this new offense that Blau is bringing.
07:01Dude, I just want to be sure I have this stat right before I tweet it out.
07:04You said 93% of Jaden Daniels' dropbacks in the first two seasons came out of shotgun.
07:12That is correct.
07:13It is pretty shocking, but that is absolutely correct.
07:16Wow.
07:17I mean, even if Blau gets that to 60-40, think about that.
07:21That's a 30% change.
07:24I mean, look, I completely agree.
07:2733 career dropbacks from under center in nearly two full seasons of work.
07:34Obviously, he missed some time this past year, but 33 dropbacks from under center, it's crazy.
07:39So, yeah, 93%, that's the highest in the NFL for any quarterback in terms of a quarterback operating out of
07:45shotgun.
07:46Is the only person close to that Kyler?
07:51I don't, unfortunately, have the next closest comparison.
07:54Yeah, that's fine.
07:55I'd have to pull it up.
07:57Yeah.
07:58Okay, so offensively, I don't know, man.
08:01It's so early that maybe we're like, you don't want to be thinking hopium, right?
08:06But I like what I see from the offense, like being here, you know, throughout the spring and now through
08:11two days of camp.
08:12Like the amount of motion, the different sets, the 12 and 13 personnel that is working around the league.
08:17Like I feel some level of optimism with the offense.
08:21And, of course, it hinges on Jaden being healthy, but I think that's the case with a lot of quarterbacks
08:25around the league.
08:26Defensively, do you think they've done enough?
08:29Because they did spend on that side of the ball, but they were also terrible last year.
08:36Terrible is a harsh word, but I'll tell you, JP, it's not strong enough.
08:40This defense was one of the most miserable defenses that I have seen fielded.
08:47You can look at the statistics, and they rank, you know, 31st or worse in most statistics, including EPA per
08:54play.
08:54But some of these other statistics really stand out when you look at, like, the way teams play games.
08:59They allowed 37% of opponent drives to reach the red zone.
09:03That was fifth worst.
09:04And when they reached the red zone, they allowed 68% of those drives to score touchdowns, which was second
09:10worst in the NFL.
09:12They were the only defense over the last five years to allow at least 35% of drives to reach
09:17the red zone and over 67% of them to score touchdowns.
09:21The only defense in the last five years.
09:23That is a deadly combination to allow a lot of drives to get down to the red zone and then
09:28to score touchdowns when you are there.
09:30That's horrible.
09:31Now, I get it.
09:33Commanders fans could say, well, the defense wore down.
09:36The offense wasn't supporting them enough last year, and so this was inevitable.
09:40Let me tell you this.
09:41Let's just back up to the opening drive of the game.
09:44The defense should be fresh at that point.
09:47Opponents' opening drives averaged 49 yards.
09:50That was the number one worst mark, not just in the NFL last year, not just for any Washington Commanders
09:57defense this entire century.
09:58It was the 13th worst for any NFL defense in the league this century.
10:04They forced just three punts on 17 opponent opening drives.
10:10That was the lowest mark for any defense this century across the NFL.
10:16Three punts in 17 opponent opening drives.
10:20In the first quarter of games, they were allowing ridiculous statistics across the board, and so 48% of drives
10:30scored points.
10:30That was the number three worst of any defense this century.
10:34So I'm not buying the excuse that the defense got tired out.
10:38This is Dan Quinn's unit.
10:40It was an absolute embarrassment and hasn't been good since he has come to D.C., quite frankly.
10:47And part of the reason it hasn't been good is because when it was good in Dallas, it was thriving
10:54off of takeaways.
10:56They led the NFL in takeaways over his three years in Dallas.
11:00They led the NFL in turnover margin.
11:02They led the NFL in points off turnover margin.
11:04They led the NFL in EPA off of turnovers.
11:08Over that same three-year stretch in D.C., the defense wasn't cutting it, and so they got Dan Quinn,
11:13but they have not been getting takeaways under Quinn either.
11:18And so that's why they're allowing so many drives to reach the red zone.
11:21This unit in general has to step up this year because you cannot have success in the NFL if you
11:29have a defensive head coach with a mediocre to poor defense because inevitably your offensive coordinator is either going to
11:38not perform well, the team will lose, and the coach will fire that offensive coordinator, or the offensive coordinator will
11:44perform really well, and another team will hire that coordinator to be the head coach.
11:48You are not going to have stability on the offensive side of the football with a defensive-minded head coach
11:53almost regardless of how your offense is.
11:55So your defense has to be elite.
11:57Your defense has to be like Mike McDonald's up in Seattle.
12:01It cannot be like Todd Bowles down in Tampa, and that's what we're seeing here out of Dan Quinn.
12:07They've got to turn around.
12:08They spent a lot.
12:09They drafted guys.
12:10I'm excited to see how they look, but they have a lot of room for improvement.
12:14Dude, I've got to do this again just so I'm sure I have it correct.
12:18The 2025 Commanders defense gave up on average of 49 yards on opening drives, and they forced three punts on
12:25first drives for the entire season?
12:29Yes.
12:30Both of those are correct, and three punts on opening drives is the worst mark of any defense this century.
12:40Oh, my God, dude.
12:43All right.
12:44We're talking with our friend Warren Sharp here on the Rude Guest Hotline.
12:48You can give him a follow at SharpFootball.
12:50A lot of great analysis on his website.
12:52Check out the 2026 football preview.
12:54It's out now.
12:56Use the code COMMANDERS.
12:57You get 50% off.
12:58I don't know how many Commanders fans want to read about last year, but they'll certainly read about the coming
13:02year.
13:03I also want to zoom out a bit here.
13:07You did a deep dive into strength of schedule.
13:09I feel like you do that every season.
13:12Who does it help?
13:12Who does it hurt?
13:13And where does it land for Washington?
13:16Well, so I have the overarching strength of schedule, and then I also modify it during the offseason because my
13:23strength of schedule is based upon forecast for 2026.
13:28I don't care what you did last year.
13:30Everybody is different to a degree.
13:31I want to know what the betting markets are predicting that your team will do in 2026, and then I
13:36look at how strong your opponents are and what their markets are looking like.
13:41And the Commanders right now rank as the fourth toughest schedule in the NFL.
13:49That's going to be a problem for them.
13:51And, in fact, over the first 11 weeks, I have you guys pegged as the number two most difficult schedule
13:58in the NFL.
13:59And if you look across the board, the weakest team that you're going to play through week 11 is the
14:05New York Giants, who are predicted to win about seven and a half games, but they're being bet towards the
14:10over.
14:11The markets are excited that Malik Nabors looks a little bit healthier than he was expected to look.
14:16We'll see if that ends up panning out.
14:18But you've got, obviously, difficult games against playoff teams in 2026.
14:23These teams should make the playoffs, including the Eagles, the Seahawks, the 49ers, the Eagles, again, the Rams, and the
14:30Bengals, all within the first 11 weeks of the season.
14:33So it results in the number two most difficult schedule through that stretch.
14:37And I have you guys, one of the reasons that I also look at the change in the movement is
14:44I want to know, is your schedule getting harder or easier?
14:47And your schedule has gotten the second most difficult.
14:51It's seen the second largest increase in difficulty since June 1st.
14:55And that's because you are playing the Cowboys twice and the Bengals.
15:01Both teams have been bet towards the over at the number one and number two highest rate in the NFL.
15:06The Bengals have been bet towards the over a lot since June, as have the Cowboys.
15:11In addition, you've got the Rams, Texans, Giants twice.
15:14Those three teams all rank top seven in terms of teams that bet towards the over.
15:21The expectations are even stronger for those teams.
15:23And so you're just playing a bunch of these teams that have ranked in the top seven in terms of
15:29the betting markets.
15:30And this is not just like some sort of an odds maker sitting off in the corner changing the numbers
15:35because it's his personal opinion.
15:37This is like hundreds and thousands of bettors, many of them sharp, who are moving the markets, are betting on
15:44these other teams who you have to play.
15:47So it just has made your schedule even more difficult than it was envisioned to be earlier this offseason.
15:54Goodness gracious.
15:55Talking with Warren Sharp here.
15:56Give him a follow at Sharp Football.
15:58I want to zoom out from the commanders because, honestly, I mean, what makes the NFL so difficult when you
16:04try to do the projections over the course of a year?
16:06This league's impossible to bet week to week, let alone look into what, you know, what an offensive line is
16:12going to look like in December after injuries wreck it or whatever.
16:15All that said, I make a Super Bowl prediction every year.
16:18I got the Bengals beating the Rams.
16:20I got a rematch of whatever that was, 2021, this time with Joe B coming out on top.
16:25What are some of the teams you really like this season and what are some of the teams you think
16:29might underperform?
16:30Or what do you think of my Super Bowl prediction?
16:33Look, I don't dislike your Super Bowl prediction.
16:36I, too, am higher than market on the Cincinnati Bengals, which is a scary proposition for me because I was
16:43lower on market than them last year.
16:45In fact, I bet the under on the Bengals win total last season.
16:48The main reason for that was I was worried, what does this team have if Joe Burrow isn't 100%
16:54healthy all season long?
16:55I don't believe in their offensive line.
16:56I don't believe in their run game.
16:57I don't believe in their defense.
16:59I think, aside from their run game, which they haven't really done anything differently with, they have a better offensive
17:05line entering 2026 than they did entering 2025.
17:08The offensive line got better towards the end of the season and gelled a little bit more, and they had
17:12some younger players that performed better.
17:14And obviously, their defense, I have a little bit more confidence in their defense coordinator year two, as well as
17:20the personnel.
17:21Dexter Lawrence is now there in Cincinnati.
17:23So I think their defense can do enough.
17:25The other thing that I like about the Bengals is just that I don't like the rest of the AFC
17:30North quite as much.
17:32Steelers, Browns, Ravens, all these teams, I don't know that they're really taking big steps forward.
17:37They might be taking steps backward.
17:39And that's really where Joe Burrow has struggled, is against the divisional opponents.
17:43Outside the division, this is one of the best teams in the NFL during Joe Burrow's tenure at winning non
17:49-division games.
17:50They've just struggled in division.
17:51And specifically, weirdly, they've struggled with Kevin Stefanski's Cleveland Browns.
17:56And I just think now, with Kevin Stefanski no longer there, Miles Garrett no longer there, the Bengals might have
18:01more success against the Browns.
18:02They might have an opportunity to win a few more games this season.
18:06It's hard not to like the Rams, so I don't dislike your Super Bowl prediction at all.
18:10A team that I think I feel a little bit higher on than the market that probably nobody's talking about,
18:14and he certainly did himself no favors walking into the stadium like he did, what was it, yesterday.
18:20But C.J. Stroud and the Houston Texans, I think that's a team that everybody has turned on C.J.
18:25Stroud.
18:26Everybody thinks that this team is not very successful.
18:29But last year, this run game was the worst in the NFL.
18:33They had a first-year offensive coordinator coming from the Rams trying to install a man-blocking scheme with an
18:40offensive line that was very accustomed to zone blocking.
18:44They used the Rams' man-blocking principles at the number-two highest rate of any team in the league last
18:49year.
18:49After using zone blocking at top-five highest rate, that offensive line wasn't capable of sustaining it.
18:56They never predicted that Woody Marks, a rookie running back drafted in the fourth round, would be their running back
19:02one.
19:02They thought it was going to be Joe Mixon.
19:04Joe Mixon never shows up.
19:06They have to go with Woody Marks, who cannot pass block, cannot catch passes out of the backfield, so they're
19:11using Nick Chubb.
19:12The run game was the worst in the NFL as well, so you've got a bad O-line, a bad
19:16run game,
19:17and you've got no support, and you've got injured wide-receiving core.
19:21I think healthier wide-receiving core, better run game, brought in David Montgomery.
19:26He'll block his ass off in pass pro.
19:30Yes, 100%, I think.
19:32And for all those reasons, I believe the Jacksonville Jaguars, they got a high floor because of Liam Cohen.
19:39I like him as a play caller, but they are going to take a step back.
19:42They're not winning 13 games next year.
19:44They're not winning the AFC South, in my opinion.
19:46I think the Texans win the South.
19:48I think the Texans have a good shot at doing some things this postseason.
19:51So that's kind of, I don't want to say sleeper because they're projected to make the playoffs,
19:54but they are a team that I'm higher on than market.
19:57I like that.
19:58I mean, that defense, dude, if Stroud wasn't, if he was just mediocre and not god-awful in the New
20:04England game,
20:05that defense could have willed him to a win there.
20:07You know what I mean?
20:08Like, I think I'd have to go back and check.
20:11I believe I put in kind of a late future on Houston winning the Super Bowl, just the way those
20:15ends were playing
20:16and the way those corners are so physical.
20:18So, yeah, I like that, man.
20:20Warren, I could talk to you all day, dude.
20:21I always enjoy this.
20:23The rules of radio confine me to commercial breaks, however.
20:25So I appreciate your time.
20:27Everybody check out the book.
20:29And, dude, I don't know.
20:30I know you were in the D.C. area.
20:32If Brandon Ayuk has a housewarming party, I hope you get the invite.
20:37Yeah, I don't think I will, but it would be fun to hang out and talk shop with you a
20:43little bit here
20:43sometime before the season starts.
20:45So let's stay in touch.
20:46All right, buddy.
20:46Appreciate the time, man.
20:47Take care.
20:49Take care.
20:49All right.
20:50That is Warren Sharp.
20:51Give him a follow at SharpFootball.
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