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ESPN's Seth Walder joins the show to discuss the playoff odds for team's throughout the NFL. Where does Washington sit?
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00:00Joining us now on the Rude Guest Hotline is Seth Walder, ESPN NFL analyst.
00:05Seth, thanks for making some time for us, dude.
00:06How are you doing?
00:08Sure.
00:08How are you guys?
00:09We're good, man.
00:10We're doing good, dude.
00:13I follow you on social, and I saw earlier this week you rolled out the first football
00:19power index of the season.
00:22Obviously, the Rams trading for Miles Garrett probably made a pretty big impact.
00:26You have the Rams number one on your list.
00:29They should be.
00:29Where were they prior to the Garrett trade, and how much did that bounce them up?
00:34Yeah, so they were already number one.
00:37You're right.
00:38We had already run in.
00:39I'd already written the story, and then the Garrett trade happened, so we had to rerun.
00:44They were already number one.
00:45They were already the Super Bowl favorite.
00:47The addition of Garrett increased their advantage over the rest of the league, and it increased
00:53their Super Bowl probability by between one and two percentage points.
00:57I think that probably sounds small to most people, but what I would say about that is
01:04two things.
01:04One, there's not many non-quarterbacks that can even move the needle in terms of Super Bowl
01:09probability by that much.
01:10And then two, I do think that what is a little bit lost about that trade is it's not the
01:17addition
01:17of Miles Garrett.
01:18It's Miles Garrett over Jared Verse, and Jared Verse is probably a top 10 edge rusher.
01:25So they are adding the best defensive player in the league, arguably, but they are also replacing
01:35a very good edge rusher.
01:36And so that's why they moved up just a bit, but that's where they're at.
01:43They're up to 15% chance to win the Super Bowl, and it makes them a sizable favorite.
01:48There's been some weak rumors of Aaron Donald possibly coming out of retirement.
01:52If that happens, do they get an extra push?
01:55Yeah, man, yeah.
01:57I think Aaron Donald comes out of retirement, and then we'll move the needle again.
02:04I mean, that would be...
02:05Oh, I mean, please.
02:07Come on.
02:07We all want to see it, right?
02:09Yeah, I do.
02:10How crazy would that be?
02:11Yeah, me too.
02:12Me too.
02:13Oh, man, that would be so crazy.
02:15And you know what's so funny is I think it's wild, because you look at them, and you look
02:20at that team, and it looks totally loaded.
02:22And I just said they're the favorite and all that, but I also said they're a 15% chance
02:26to win the Super Bowl, which just shows how much variance there is in football, right?
02:31We're just saying this team is stacked, and there's an 85% chance that they don't win
02:36the Super Bowl.
02:37Of course, it'll be lower than 85% if Aaron Donald decides to step on the field.
02:42So another team that's high, you have the Ravens as your third team in the Football Power Index.
02:48Is there any concern with what we saw from Baltimore last year just kind of being ineffective?
02:54Now you've got a rookie head coach in there.
02:57It seems like with the Ravens and the Chiefs, people are expecting the Ravens to bounce all
03:03the way back.
03:04And I understand the Chiefs obviously have the injury questions with Mahomes, but why
03:08are you still so high on Baltimore?
03:12Well, I think, firstly, Jackson wasn't fully healthy throughout last season, and he's one
03:17of the very best quarterbacks in the league.
03:19So when we think about them, our baseline should be expecting that offense to be really, really
03:26good.
03:27You're right that there is more uncertainty with a new head coach, but there could also
03:32be upside with that.
03:33I think that you look at that defense, and I think they could do better.
03:37You know, they were from just a middle-of-the-road defense last year.
03:40You add Jesse Minter, you bring in Trey Hendrickson.
03:44I think, you know, you look at this team, it's Wiggins and Humphrey on the outside, and
03:48I think, or, well, Humphrey sometimes on the outside, and then, of course, Kyle Hamilton,
03:55Roquan Smith, and you say, hey, that's a unit that could be pretty great.
03:58It could be a lot better than average.
03:59And so I think that that defense gives them a lot of upside, and you just can't ever really
04:05count out a Lamar Jackson team.
04:08I agree with that.
04:09Switching things to the NFC East for us here in Washington, obviously, you've got the Eagles
04:14and the Cowboys right there at 10 and 11.
04:16How much did the A.J. Brown trade maybe bump down Philly, and what are your expectations
04:21for them going into the season?
04:23Well, I don't have a number exactly to tell you for that, and the reason is the way FBI
04:28works in the preseason.
04:29It's largely based on betting market information, and then there's some other stuff around the
04:34edges, but because we've known that A.J. Brown was not going to be on the Eagles for months
04:42now, that has been fully baked into the price.
04:46So the first time we ran FBI, it was assuming A.J. Brown was not on the Eagles.
04:52Look, I think absolutely it makes an impact, but the Eagles have been spending their offseason
04:59preparing for that, right?
05:01Like, they didn't just sit idly by, yeah, sure, Devontae Smith is going to elevate to
05:06that top spot, but they dropped Makai Lemon in the first round, and Dontavian Wicks they
05:11traded for, and so I think they're just fine at a receiver, even though I do think losing
05:17Brown is a loss, of course.
05:19Then what about Dallas?
05:21Dallas, I think there's a little buzz around this Cowboys team that have added a lot on
05:25the defensive side of the ball, where they were god-awful.
05:27They could just be marginally better.
05:29I mean, that could be a playoff team.
05:33You said it, okay, and that's exactly right.
05:35I mean, win, not to boost your ego, but that's the whole reason.
05:41The thing we know about, one thing we know about football is that year to year, we have
05:45a lot more consistency on the offensive side of the ball than on the defensive side of
05:48the ball.
05:49So a team like Dallas is really perfectly positioned to take a step up because their
05:54offense was really effective.
05:56I mean, Dak Prescott last year, it went under the radar just how good of a season he had.
06:03I do a project every year where I do a hypothetical 100-player MVP ballot, and I had Prescott at
06:10two.
06:10And I just think that because they didn't make the playoffs, it was lost on a road, but
06:16he was so good last year, and not a lot's changing on that side of the ball.
06:22What does change is defense, I think.
06:24And you just kind of naturally, even if you don't do a whole lot, you're naturally going
06:30to expect to have regression on that side of the ball.
06:32Well, and then they bring in some other players.
06:36I didn't think the Rashawn Gary trade was a good move, but they did add some other players.
06:42I think that the turnover, they should be not as bad.
06:45I think that's generally a pretty good bet, and that's all they need.
06:49That's like you said.
06:50They don't need to be a great defense.
06:52They just need to be not an awful defense.
06:53But the thing about Dallas, they're good.
06:56We have this type of thing about, thought about them every year, and they don't seem
07:01to ever reach it.
07:02Does history ever come into effect?
07:06I know what you mean, because I've picked Dallas to make the Super Bowl so many years
07:12based on the logic that I just laid out for you.
07:14How many times have I fallen short?
07:18No, there's not any sort of factor in there that's like, the Cowboys can't get over the
07:24hump curse.
07:25I mean, most teams don't make the Super Bowl, and it just takes one year to change that.
07:33So, no, there's no specific Dallas thing.
07:36Obviously, there was a lot of McCarthy years in there, and he's gone now.
07:40But, I don't know.
07:43I'm a Dallas believer here this year, like lightly.
07:46I don't think I'm taking him to go to the Super Bowl, but I think he'll be in the playoffs.
07:52Dude, I actually, I think Schottenheimer's a good coach, and I think he might have kind
07:58of the wherewithal and the navigational skills to manage up with Jerry, but Jerry could blow
08:06anything up at any time.
08:07So, like, we'll see, because Mike McCarthy's a pretty good coach.
08:10You look at his winning percentage, and, you know, I mean, that dude wins 10, 11 games
08:14everywhere he goes.
08:15But we're also in D.C., so we're rooting against all of that.
08:19Yeah, totally.
08:21We're talking with Seth Walder here on the Rude Guest Hotline.
08:24Seth is an NFL analyst for ESPN.
08:27Check out his, the new Football Power Index got posted this week.
08:31Some really cool information in there.
08:32I read the article earlier in the week.
08:34You can follow him at Seth Walder, W-A-L-D-E-R.
08:39Let's turn the page to the Commanders, shall we?
08:42They, understandably, especially, you know, you kind of told us that this is largely based
08:47on Vegas expectations at this point, because we don't have data of the actual games or anything.
08:53Commanders clock in at 21st in the Football Power Index.
08:57What do you think of where they landed, and kind of how do they outperform it?
09:03How do they underperform it?
09:05I think it makes sense.
09:06I think it makes sense.
09:09Here's what I said.
09:10When I was doing, this time last year, when I was doing all these interviews about FBI,
09:16and sometimes people would ask me, like, you know, or who's a team that you think is going
09:21to underperform?
09:22And not to pat myself on the back, because most of the time, I'm wrong like everybody else.
09:26But I said Washington, because James Daniels had just formed at a level on 3rd and 4th
09:32down that was completely different than what he performed on 1st and 2nd down.
09:37And 1st and 2nd down was a much larger sample, but all the leverage is on 3rd and 4th down.
09:45Well, last year, one, he was hurt, but two, when he played, that clicked.
09:52He was worse on 3rd and 4th down than he was on 1st and 2nd down.
09:56His performance on 1st and 2nd down last year was actually at the same level as what it
10:03was as a rookie.
10:04And so that's a little bit, which is, it was okay.
10:08And that's a little worrying to me in terms of thinking about their upside, but I think
10:13they should be better than what they were a year ago.
10:17Healthy Daniels, another year of experience, and he shouldn't be as bad on laid down as
10:21he was last season.
10:22The other thing that worries me about Washington is, despite what I just said, offense was not
10:27really the issue for them last year.
10:30And yet, it was Cliff Kingsbury who got shown the door, and the defense, which struggled
10:36nightly, and it's still run by Dan Quinn.
10:38And that's the unit that has maybe a little more concerns.
10:43Now, you, I think the same thing that we just said about Dallas should be true for Washington
10:50too.
10:50You would expect that their defense would be better.
10:52They have made a lot of additions.
10:54I think Odafe Owe was an expensive signing, but he's an underrated player.
10:59He's a guy who has a strong pass rush win rate.
11:02He even had a strong pass rush win rate in Baltimore before he got all the sacks with the Chargers.
11:08Chase on the sort of solid fill-in, and of course, you bring in a guy, Sonny Stiles in
11:13the first round.
11:13I think Nick Cross is a guy that can make it, you know, kind of fly around in the secondary
11:17and come downhill and make some hits.
11:19So, I do think that they are a candidate for some nice, positive regression on the defensive
11:27side of the ball, even though Dan Quinn is still there.
11:30That being said, I think their chances of making the playoffs are rightfully long.
11:35We have them at 22, 23% chance to make the playoffs, which sounds harsh until I look
11:41at all the other teams in the NFC above them, and I think, well, yeah, I like them better
11:45too.
11:45Yeah, I like them better too.
11:47Well, you haven't talked about the Giants.
11:49We have a Giant fan that works for this show.
11:51What do you think about them?
11:52I know John Harbaugh is going up there, but they have a running back and a quarterback who
11:57don't think that they have to avoid contact.
11:59They'd rather lower their head and just run straight into it.
12:02Yeah, yeah, certainly, I think that would probably be a lesson learned on the risk there with
12:09Dahr.
12:09I think that the Giants are an interesting team, and I think there is upside with bringing
12:13in Harbaugh, and Jackson Dart showed something last year, and you can squint at this team
12:20and you can see it because the pass rush could be awesome, and you look at the offensive line
12:26and you say, okay, that could work, that could protect Dart, and then, you know, the thing
12:32that worries me is Malik Nabors, is he going to be healthy right away because they really
12:39need him.
12:39You take Nabors off that depth chart, and we are talking about Darnell Mooney, Calvin Austin,
12:45Darius Slate, Malachi Fields, who they drafted in the third round, like, I know Odell Beckham
12:50Jr., who just signed.
12:53I mean, it's pretty rough, and they're going to need that group.
12:57So that, to me, is the concern, and I think it's the same issue that sense, like, I look
13:03and say, okay, yeah, you could kind of imagine it, but then you think about, well, there's
13:07three awesome teams in the NFC West.
13:10There's a pretty good chance that they get three playoff teams out of that division.
13:14You have three teams, maybe even four teams in the North that you feel like could be pretty
13:20great with Detroit and Green Bay and Minnesota and Chicago, and it's like, okay, so even
13:26if you leapfrog one of Dallas or Philly, and let alone the commanders, that's like not even
13:36necessarily enough.
13:37And so that's, I think, a really tough spot that both Washington and the Giants find themselves
13:41in.
13:41It's just the, like, depth of the NFC.
13:44With the commanders, like, for them to get back into the playoff conversation, say it's
13:53a wild card spot, what do you think the offensive conceptual change of Cliff being out and David
14:01Blau putting in a more traditional pro-style offense can bring?
14:07I don't know.
14:09I mean, like, I'm going to be honest with you, I don't know.
14:11I don't know what the, like, you're saying, like, what, if it's going to work, what's it
14:13going to look like?
14:14Is that what you mean?
14:15Yeah.
14:17I don't have a great answer for that.
14:19I think that, I mean, they had so much success in the rookie, in Cliff's offense, in the
14:23team's rated offense, in the, in his rookie year.
14:26If I'm not, I somewhat hesitate to prescribe changing that much off of it.
14:35I do think Daniels is maybe, yeah, maybe he has to put a little more on his shoulders.
14:39Maybe, you know, and maybe it comes down to something like a breakout from, like, an Antonio
14:43Williams right away.
14:44Something like that.
14:45An impact player that we're not expecting.
14:49Yeah.
14:50It's going to be a lot.
14:51It's going to need a lot, though, I think, for Washington to get there.
14:54The, the other, the other thing I wanted to follow up with you on is you have the bears
14:59regressing.
15:01Um, yeah.
15:01And a lot of it is the turnover dependency on that defense.
15:04I tend to agree with you.
15:06They, they pulled like in a lot of ways, I feel like the 2025 bears were the 2024 commanders.
15:13And in a lot of ways, both teams season swung on a devastating late loss to the other in
15:2024, the bears fell apart after the hail Mary and 25.
15:23Commanders fell apart after Jaden fumbled late in that game.
15:27Um, what, what, where do you see Chicago going?
15:30Also, Caleb Williams now on the cover of Madden, which may or may not be a good thing
15:34either.
15:35Okay.
15:36I really liked that parallel.
15:38I haven't put it together quite the way you did.
15:40Uh, and I think that makes a lot of sense.
15:43I think so with Chicago, there's the turnover dependency.
15:48If you look at non turnover plays, that defense ranked 30th in EPA per play on non turnover
15:53plays.
15:54They were one of the worst units in the league.
15:55They just took the ball away.
15:56And if you want to know how fluky turnovers are, well, Nayshaun Wright had a ton of picks
16:02and he signed for nothing with the jet.
16:04So they clearly Chicago did not feel like, Oh wow, this is, this guy is a key to our defense.
16:10Um, cause on that side of the ball, I think there's a problem.
16:13The other side of the ball, and this is another sort of parallel.
16:15It's a different issue than what I described with Daniels earlier, but Caleb Williams only
16:19ranked 16th in QBR and check this out.
16:21He ranked last among QBR qualifying quarterbacks in off target rate and completion percentage
16:27over expectation.
16:28That is an accuracy issue.
16:30And I know that people say a lot of people believe that that's going to improve and maybe
16:34it will, but there is accuracy issue.
16:38And until we see improvement in that, I'm not going to assume that that improvement is
16:43going to happen.
16:44And I think that's the thing that ought to be really concerning for Bears fans.
16:47You mentioned that we haven't regressed things, just 47% chance to make the playoffs.
16:52The one feather in their cap that I think makes it different from Washington a year ago is,
16:58is Ben Johnson.
16:59I think that he gives them, I think that Kingsbury was a solid OC for the commanders, but it's pretty
17:05clear that Washington is giving, or that Johnson, I'm sorry, is giving Chicago his offense, same
17:11when he was in Detroit, and a schematic advantage.
17:14And I think that that is going to, that is a potential lifeline that could keep Chicago
17:20in the mix.
17:21But yeah, there are a lot of parallels.
17:23There are a lot of reasons to think about regression for that team.
17:28Last one, Kevin O'Connell's a coach I know pretty well.
17:32He's had so much success in Minnesota.
17:34Now he's got this Kyler, J.J. McCarthy quarterback competition.
17:38You expect that defense to remain really good with Flo running it.
17:43But what do you make of the Vikings?
17:46Oh, I think that they're, they're always, God, I think they're dangerous.
17:50I mean, I don't really think McCarthy, oh, famous last words.
17:54I cannot, I'm not reporting anything.
17:56This is just my view.
17:57I cannot imagine McCarthy really has a chance.
17:59I think that, but I think that when you take Kyler Murray is a, I've always been a little
18:06higher on Kyler Murray than, than consensus.
18:09I think that he's got that upside in there.
18:11And I think that we've seen O'Connell make it work with less.
18:16And I think that it fell apart when McCarthy was that quarterback, but Murray is a total
18:23different level of confidence.
18:24I know he's frustrated to watch at times, but he can make plays and he can raise that
18:29floor by a lot.
18:30And you look at that team.
18:32And I think that there is definitely potential there.
18:36Now it's a really tough division to break through, but there is no way that I am going to rule
18:42out those two coaches now with competency at quarterback, the receivers they have.
18:49I mean, Flores every year, just delivering on defense.
18:52It's really hard for me to say, oh no, Minnesota can't do it.
18:56I think, I think they could definitely be the next.
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