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00:00My life is very exciting right now. Rich Rebar is on the West Her Hotline. Lord Rebs, Your Majesty. Sharp
00:06football analysis. I told Warren that you were going to be on today. No pressure or anything, but I've been
00:13looking forward to this for a long time. Rich has his part in the Sharp football preview book and some
00:20Bills analysis that we'll talk about here today. Rich, how have you been?
00:23I'm doing great. Mike, it's great to talk to you. It's always fun talking about the Bills, too, who have
00:29been a really fun fantasy football-adjacent team for so many years.
00:33Yes, I suppose. I mean, I've got 25 or 30 years in it, so I may be a little bit
00:38numb, but I agree with you. Certainly in this era it is in terms of their success and their fantasy
00:44output as well.
00:45Well, let's start with, actually, let me just get an overview from you, Rich. I mean, it's mostly the same
00:52offense. A couple of things that are different. Of course, the offensive coordinator is now the head coach, and I'd
00:59like your opinion on that.
01:01And then the addition of DJ Moore, which we'll get to. Is it normal when a team promotes its offensive
01:09coordinator to think it'll be pretty much the same in terms of scheme and output as the year prior, or
01:16is it maybe more subtle than that or nuanced?
01:20Yeah, they're kind of an interesting team, right? Because when they made the change and promoted Joe Brady even to
01:25offensive coordinator that year, it was kind of leading into that, it was kind of like, all right, is Ken
01:33Dorsey running the football enough to where I want him to under Sean McDermott, right?
01:37And then, you know, how much influence have we seen, you know, the past, you know, you know, three and
01:42a half years of, you know, Buffalo being a little bit more conservative because of that influence?
01:46How much of it was the lack of, you know, kind of maybe not having a lead wide receiver since
01:51the departure of Stephon Diggs?
01:54And, you know, obviously the strength of their team outright has just been the offensive line, Josh Allen, and the
01:59running backs.
02:00Like, so, you know, do we see some, like, kind of, you know, moving around this year?
02:04You know, obviously, you know, you lose a starting offensive lineman, you add DJ Moore, hopefully, you know, Dalton Kincaid
02:11is, you know, healthier and, you know, him getting stronger.
02:15You know, a lot of times we talk about these guys in the offseason, like best shape of your life
02:18season, and we kind of fluff it off.
02:20We've heard it so many times, but I actually do think for a guy like Dalton Kincaid, it does matter
02:24that he's getting stronger.
02:26And, you know, because of how the limitations he's had in the run game and the fact that he's been
02:32so banged up.
02:32So, he's one guy I'm kind of looking at it like, you probably needed to put some weight on.
02:37Interesting.
02:38Two things on that.
02:39One is, they did sing the same song a year ago.
02:42I know.
02:43And I don't know where it got us.
02:45And my hesitation on that has always been that Dawson Knox still exists.
02:50Right?
02:51I mean, that's a core player who's got a contract.
02:54And I think to have Kincaid evolve to a point where he's more a part of their run offense, I
03:02think probably eliminates Knox.
03:03No?
03:05Yeah, 100%.
03:06I mean, you just look at their splits last year.
03:09You know, they only ran the ball 28.5% of the time on the snaps.
03:13Kincaid was on the field.
03:14When Dawson Knox was on the field, it was 57%.
03:17So, it's not just, you know, that this player is not being involved in a run game at all.
03:23It's just that, yeah, he offers none of that two-way versatility.
03:27So, if he can just kind of make that, like, closer to, like, 35%, 40% and just not be,
03:32like, at the, you know, 28%, that actually is, like, a big boon for him.
03:35So, we just need him running more actual routes than he has over the course of his career.
03:40He's never going to be, like, a full-time player because he's still going to be limited in terms of
03:45that capacity in the run game.
03:47And Dawson Knox also is so good in that area.
03:49But, like, we just need more than him being at, like, the 64% team dropback rate that he's been
03:55his three years in the NFL.
03:57Holy cow, yes, in terms of fantasy.
03:59If you knew that his snap share even was going to double, which is not, you know, impossible.
04:05I mean, well, I don't think it's going to happen, but, like, that's something numerically that's possible.
04:11Then you could – I mean, he's always at the top of the list, Rich, in terms of, like, targets
04:16per route run, right?
04:16Like, when he does get down the field, he gets the ball.
04:20Yeah, he's at high utilization the past two years.
04:23It's just that, one, he's been banked up.
04:24And, two, he doesn't play in-line tight end on a team that has run the football at a higher
04:29rate in the NFL,
04:30not just through game script but accounting for game script.
04:33It's just been the strength of their team.
04:35So, it's going to be really interesting to see, you know, what wrinkles, you know, Joe Brady and Pete Carmichael
04:39have
04:39compared to just what they were running the past, you know, two, three, three-and-a-half years here.
04:46Let's get back to looking at the Bills and the league here from sort of a macro viewpoint.
04:52So, the Bills have had this success in the run game.
04:55James Cook leading the league in touchdowns two years ago, leading them in yards, leading the league in yards last
05:00year.
05:00I mean, what a story.
05:02And that is in line, I think you would say, with league trends that, not, you know, being the leader
05:08in these categories,
05:09but just sort of a more run-oriented approach.
05:12This is generally the trend around the league.
05:15Tell me more in detail about that, if you can, and whether or not you think we're still going in
05:21that direction.
05:23Yeah, sure.
05:23And I have a full-on article that's just, you know, open on the site for anyone to check out.
05:27They kind of talk about the league infrastructure right now and where we are.
05:31And what we've seen as we've come out of, like, that COVID-influenced 2020 season where there was just an
05:36offensive spike across the board.
05:38There were no fans in the stands.
05:41They actually didn't call holding penalties at all that year.
05:44But we've seen, like, this little bit of a reversion to where we've been more in, like, a defensive meta.
05:48And the offenses have slowly come out of that these past two years, not just based on the kickoff rules,
05:53but they've kind of found that the way to attack these, like, Vic Fangio quarter-base-style two-high defenses
06:00is to play heavier personnel because it gives them the option to have kind of their cake and eat it,
06:05too, right?
06:05Like, if you're going to play sub-packages, which obviously, you know, Bills fans know,
06:09that's Sean McDermott's MO, Big Nickel.
06:11If you're going to play sub-packages against these heavy sets, like, you better be able to stop the run.
06:15And if you can't, then you're going to have to be forced to go into base personnel.
06:18And then now teams are using that base personnel, the defenses want to match their heavier tight end sets,
06:24and they want to throw the football and create explosives out of that.
06:27That was obviously the Rams were, like, a big team that kind of made their way last year
06:32and brought this to light.
06:32But this has been an ongoing trend the past, you know, two years, three years, really,
06:37that we've started to see fewer three-wide receiver sets, more multiple tight end sets,
06:41a lot more sets even with six linemen on the field.
06:44And that's not all plays.
06:45We're talking passing plays.
06:47This is where they want to create the explosives and get those mismatches.
06:51So the Bills are a team that's obviously suited to play this way because we just talk –
06:54we just really ran down the nuances that Dawson Knox and Dolan Kincaid have paired on the field.
06:59Like, you look at a team like the Bears or Cole Komet and Colson Loveland,
07:02they traded D.J. Moore to the Bills, and they never directly replaced D.J. Moore
07:06because this is their intent to kind of go into this direction this offseason.
07:10Now, a lot of teams are going to probably copy this to a degree to where they shouldn't.
07:15You know, we've seen the Jacksonville Jaguars draft, you know, two tight ends,
07:19Nate Burkertcher in the second round.
07:21But, like, they're a team that kind of showed, like, 11 personnel was their better personnel last year.
07:25Like, they shouldn't really be swerving into this.
07:27You know, the Texans are another team.
07:28Like, you know, they draft, you know, Max Klein.
07:31But, like, you know, hey, their wide receiver depth is better suited this way.
07:34The Bills are a team we're still going to see play a lot of multiple tight ends at a high
07:38rate of the league
07:39and some three tight end stuff as Jackson Hawes, you know, goes into year two as well.
07:43Absolute demon in the run game, too.
07:45So, I think we're going to see some Jackson Hawes in the run game as well.
07:48But definitely check out the full article on the site.
07:49It kind of breaks down all the league trends in general
07:52in getting defenses, the counterpunch offenses are finding
07:55and trying to play this cat-and-mouth game
07:56and getting these defenses to play these sub-packages and come out of nickel.
08:02SharpFootballAnalysis.com.
08:03Rich Rebar, my guest.
08:04I'm Mike Shope.
08:05Bulldog is off today.
08:06How important a variable, Rich, is a running back who can pass block
08:11in what determines whether a team is better off in 11 or needs two tight ends?
08:17Like, you say how Jacksonville was better in 11 or Houston.
08:20What is that mostly?
08:22Is that personnel?
08:22Is that quarterback?
08:23Is that scheme?
08:25It's kind of a marriage of all things.
08:28I mean, we've seen – in terms of backfield in general,
08:31we've seen, like, so many viable running backs now
08:34where the league's become compartmentalized where we've just seen guys come in
08:38for, you know, a pass-catching role or be the guy that's going to just be
08:41in to pass block and not really get touches or design touches in the offense.
08:46But, you know, you look at Jacksonville, like, as an example of why I believe
08:50that they're better in terms of 11 personnel.
08:51We saw the sliding doors last year.
08:53When Travis Hunter was injured after that London game
08:57and Brian Thomas was banged up, you know, it forced this domino effect
09:00of where they acquired Jacoby Myers.
09:02They're then forced to thrust Parker Washington into this role in the offense.
09:06At that point in the season, Parker Washington had 17 catches.
09:09And it also allowed Brian Thomas to move out to X wide receiver,
09:12those two other dominoes falling.
09:14And the offense really hit his stride.
09:16And that's why, you know, the final ten games of the season
09:18after that game in London, they had the largest point differential in the NFL.
09:21I mean, you saw in the playoff game, like, they had opportunities
09:24to really push the Bills, you know.
09:26If, you know, Trevor Lawrence doesn't slide short on that one-fourth down
09:29to start that game, like, that game could be in a different game state.
09:31That's it.
09:31That's the play.
09:32That was the play.
09:33Yep.
09:34Yeah.
09:35So, yeah, I think they're just better suited not to swerve into this.
09:38Obviously, their backfield's kind of messy, you know, losing Travis Etienne
09:41or HN or whatever we're supposed to refer to him as now.
09:44And then they didn't really upgrade their offensive line,
09:46which has a lot of question marks as well.
09:48So, that's why I say, like, when you look at their personnel,
09:50I just think they're better suited to play XI.
09:52And that's not necessarily, you know, the Bills where they are right now.
09:55But getting DJ Moore gives them a little bit more flexibility
09:58than they at least have had in that capacity in recent years.
10:01All right, Rich, let's talk about him.
10:03So, the Bills paid a big price.
10:05This comes in the wake of a couple of years, if not longer,
10:09of real disenchantment around here about their weapons.
10:13And, I mean, we're kind of like the home office for bellyaching, well, in general,
10:19but also about, you know, what the Bills don't have.
10:22And now it's DJ Moore, who is somewhat of a polarizing player, I think.
10:27You know, I'm in the fantasy circles, as I think you know,
10:30and nobody seems to like him over there.
10:32I don't know.
10:33Like, he's wide receiver 27, and I don't fully get it.
10:36Like, is he too old?
10:37Is he just not that good?
10:39Excuses about his quarterback play over the years have always been made.
10:43Where are you on Moore?
10:44How good of an idea is this?
10:47I mean, for me, from, like, an actual Bills organizational stance,
10:51what they paid, it's really tough to say, like,
10:53I would have paid this iron price.
10:54But for me just being a fantasy gamer and analyzing fantasy football,
10:59like, this offers a tremendous buying point, right?
11:02Because we know one thing from a fantasy football stance that happens more so,
11:05I think, than other fantasy sports,
11:07is gamers tend to price in, like,
11:09what has happened even most recently or beforehand,
11:13and just more into the price point.
11:15So you look at DJ Moore over the course of his career,
11:17a lot of gamers will say, like,
11:19there's been excitement about him before, and he hasn't paid off.
11:21Why would I invest now, right?
11:23You see this with some other guys across the league,
11:25like Christian Watson is a great example of this, too.
11:27Like, has just a really strong wealth of opportunity here,
11:30and arrows pointing all the way up.
11:31But people are like, well, he's never played a full season yet.
11:33Like, why would I think this year is going to be a full season?
11:35So I do think that there's a great buying point on DJ Moore.
11:39I think there are a lot of pros here in terms of just maybe the Bills get more
11:42out of kind of his mercurial attitude that he had the past couple years.
11:46We know he didn't like his role in the Chicago offense with all the stuff near
11:50the line of scrimmage.
11:51He openly talked about this with a guy like Matt Harmon, who you work with as well.
11:55But we've seen that Allen hasn't had a future wide receiver one since Stephon Diggs.
12:00But when you look at the Bills, any time they're pushed to throw,
12:03and this is one of the things that kind of frustrates us to a degree from a fan
12:06stance about how the Bills have operated at the end of the McDermott era,
12:10is that even when they didn't have any of these guys that you believed in on
12:13offense outside of maybe Dalton Kincaid, when the Bills have to throw the football,
12:18they're really good at throwing the football because 17 is excellent.
12:21Even last year, they're seventh in the NFL in success rate on passing plays.
12:25They were eighth in passing plays that gained 10 or more yards.
12:27They were third in passing plays that gained 20 or more yards.
12:30And that's what, at the end of the year, throwing guys like Brandon Cooks, right,
12:33like relying on him in the most pivotal games of the season.
12:37Now they're getting a guy that actually has, you know, talent, no matter how you feel
12:40about where the ceiling of that talent lies.
12:43So we're going to see D.J. Moore just have an opportunity attached to the best
12:47quarterback that he's played to in his career.
12:49Even with the growth of Caleb Williams, you know, last year, he still was a guy that
12:53was extremely volatile throwing to wide receivers.
12:55He had one of the highest and accurate target rates in the NFL.
12:58Josh Allen, even throwing to these guys that maybe we would say aren't good separators or
13:02aren't good players in their own level, like he's eighth in the NFL in this.
13:06So like all these things are just big pros for D.J. Moore.
13:09And then if by just any chance, the Bills do open this thing up a little bit more, like
13:13they're going to be too good of a real team, I think, to just like fully swerving to be
13:17like a top 10 pass rate team.
13:18But when you look at what the Bills have done historically under Josh Allen, when they played
13:23big games and teams can push them, they make the plane out of 17.
13:27And that's when you see, you know, them kind of swerve into him.
13:31And the Bills, you know, they face, look at their schedule.
13:33I mean, they have games against the Lions, the Chargers, the Rams, the Ravens.
13:36They play the Patriots twice, the Chiefs, the Texans, the Packers, the Bears, the Broncos.
13:40Like these are teams that can push them into competitive games with upside.
13:44And over the past six seasons, when Buffalo has been a favorite of three or fewer points
13:49or an outright underdog, I mean, Josh Allen averages 25 fantasy points per game.
13:53In games decided by a field goal or less in any direction, he averages 24.8 points per game.
13:58Like those points are going to someone, like they're going to go to a player and it's going
14:03to be the guy that we're going to say is going to be on the field in this full rotation
14:06of
14:07wide receivers around him.
14:08So he's the one receiver that we say is going to be locked in.
14:11Denver's done this with Courtland Sutton the last couple of years, and it'll change now
14:14with the addition of Jalen Waddell, where they just have one guy that basically plays on
14:18like 80 to 90% of all the dropbacks, and they just rotate in guys around him.
14:22So like Troy Franklin, little Jordan Humphrey, Marvin Mims, the Bills are going to operate
14:26in that same capacity.
14:27It's going to be a DJ Moore on the field.
14:29He was on the field for 86% of the Bears dropbacks last year.
14:32So we're going to see something similar with the Bills this year.
14:35And I just want to bet on a guy that's going to be on the field that much with talent
14:39attached
14:39to Josh Allen.
14:41Really good.
14:42DJ Moore is on the field for 86% of the Bears plays.
14:45And the Bears were pretty hot, and he caught 50 passes because of all these other circumstances,
14:52right?
14:52Like he talked about them before, maybe going to more of a 12-look commit with Colston
14:57Loveland, who I think led them in catches last year.
15:00So Rich Rebar, my guest on the Western Hotline.
15:03Rich, what about James Cook?
15:05Looking back first, what have you made of these last two years?
15:09Were you lucky enough to be in on Cook?
15:11Where I wasn't these last couple years, you know, with the big numbers.
15:15Now in fantasy, he's a first-round pick, usually.
15:18Do you see more of the same?
15:21I actually think I'm a little more excited about him.
15:24Obviously, the one thing that we have looming over James Cook is, you know, he did have,
15:28you know, counting the playoffs, I mean, 385 total touches.
15:32Only Christian McCaffrey had more.
15:34A lot of those were rushing attempts, too, because, you know, obviously we're going to
15:38get into it, but he's been a guy I think we can argue has been underused in the passing
15:42game.
15:42So hopefully he's going to shed some of that, just like the banging on the rushing attempt
15:47stuff and get a little bit more involved in the pass game.
15:49But just from like a pie-in-the-sky number, like typically guys that have this many touches,
15:53you have to be a little wary of the year.
15:55There's historically been a drop-off, not always.
15:58But this is a guy, when you look at the way he's produced for fantasy football, has been kind
16:02of roadblocked a little bit, obviously, by Josh Allen near the goal line, and he hasn't
16:07really caught passes.
16:08I mean, last year he was on the field for only 43% of the Buffalo passing plays.
16:12He was 15th at the position.
16:13He only averages two catches per game.
16:15But coming into the NFL, like he was, this was his calling card.
16:18Like he was kind of one of these tweener backs, you know, 200, 210 pounds, was really great
16:23in the pass game and explosive as a rusher.
16:25We've had the explosion as a rusher, and he's been really great in fantasy football, even in
16:29these full PPR formats, the last two years he's been a top 13 scorer in 20 of his 33
16:34games the past two years.
16:35Only Bijan Robinson and Jameer Gibbs have more, and that's why he has been kind of had a guy
16:41cutting into his touchdown production, even though he still scores touchdowns, and not
16:45catching any passes.
16:46We get this guy access to more reception, like, I mean, I think he can compete with those
16:52guys at the top of the league.
16:54I think he is a player of the same archetype of a Bijan Robinson, Jameer Gibbs.
16:58If he was to be awarded that opportunity, if the Buffalo Bills would actually swerve into
17:03utilizing him like that, I think he could perform like that.
17:06We just need to see what Pete Carmichael adds in terms of, you know, getting him involved.
17:10He's going to follow through on all these whispers we've heard all offseason about getting
17:14him involved in the pass game.
17:15But when they have thrown to him, he's been a hyper-effective back.
17:18I know a lot of, you know, Bills fans will think about, like, that year one, he dropped
17:21a couple wheel routes, put some balls on the ground that, you know, kind of maybe impacted
17:25his role, but, like, this is still a player that when he catches the football, nine yards
17:29for catch over his career, like, this is a guy that adds explosive plays whenever he
17:33touches the football.
17:34I would love to see him and the upside he could bring if he just gets access to more
17:38utility in the passing game.
17:4028 rushing touchdowns the last two years for James Cook.
17:43Josh Allen, 26 on the same team.
17:46And Allen, as I constantly obsess over, is closing in on the all-time greats in that statistic.
17:52Rushing touchdowns, 41, I think, the last three years.
17:55Regular season only.
17:56Incredible.
17:58Rich, after Cook, Moore, even Shakir and Kincaid.
18:03I think we can just sort of skip Shakir here because there's a certain kind of, like, really
18:08narrow range where he usually comes in statistically.
18:11Is there anybody else you like?
18:12I mean, do you have the light on for Keon Coleman?
18:15Is there somebody else here?
18:16Skylar Bell as a rookie?
18:17Is there somebody else here you might be well-drafting, even?
18:20Or just sort of optimistic for?
18:24No, not really.
18:25You know, not the cold water experience.
18:27I just believe they're going to play all these guys.
18:29Obviously, we know Shakir's role, right?
18:30Like, Shakir is going to be, when they play 11 personnel, he's going to be the guy that
18:34comes in on, you know, as the slot receiver.
18:36We've never really seen him play in one to two wide receiver sets.
18:39I don't believe that that's going to really change this year.
18:42You know, I do like Skylar Bell as a prospect.
18:45I just don't know how many, you know, year one snaps he'll get, especially because there
18:48is some, it's funny, one of the comps I had to him coming into the NFL was Khalil Shakir.
18:53And if he ends up on the roster with Khalil Shakir, unfortunately.
18:57And you still have Josh Palmer and Keon Coleman are guys, I believe, are going to run a lot
19:01of these, like, I call them exercise routes.
19:04You know, the guys getting their cardio in because these guys are going to be running downfield
19:07on the boundary.
19:08They're going to be clearing stuff out for DJ Moore and Donald Kincaid, right?
19:11And hopefully James Cook out of the backfield.
19:13A lot of the wind sprint routes for those guys.
19:16Those guys are all going to be rotating in behind DJ Moore.
19:18So, from a fancy stance, I'm not really glomming onto those guys.
19:21The one guy I'm kind of still, like, interested in, and I don't know in managed leagues when
19:25we get to August, you know, it's been kind of best ball season for a lot of people.
19:28But I'm interested with all the moving parts just to see, we talked about the reduction
19:32of James Cook, maybe workload in the run game, you know, what we have for Ray Davis on the
19:36table.
19:37I mean, this is a guy, even last year, the opportunities he got, he was really effective with.
19:41It's just, he was really phased out year two from year one.
19:45I mean, his touch is precipitately dropped.
19:48But he is a guy that I think offers a wealth of handcuff value.
19:51I think he's capable of taking away some of that rushing value from James Cook and alleviating
19:55him.
19:56And then, you know, hey, man, week 17, when we get to the fantasy championships, you know,
20:01they play the Miami Dolphins that week.
20:03We could see a lot of Ray Davis that week.
20:05They do.
20:05That's right.
20:07How much are you drafting, Rich?
20:09What's been interesting to you so far?
20:11I've been, I have been drafting a lot of best balls so far this year, mostly on underdog.
20:16I will start drafting more on draft Kings with the, as I now shift to doing more writing
20:21and work because their, their platform's more conducive to being on PC than mobile or underdog,
20:26is it?
20:27But it's, it's been interesting to follow all these trends.
20:29You know, obviously gamers are a push running backs up the board this year compared to wide
20:33receivers coming off of this historically down wide receiver season.
20:36And I would love to zig while everyone's zagging, but when you look at the way the NFL has operated
20:42this off season, I think they're giving us a big signal that they're going to keep swerving
20:45into more condensed heavy sets.
20:48We had the NFL record 27 tight ends invited to the NFL combine this year, 22 tight ends
20:53were drafted.
20:54It was the most since 2002.
20:57And then when you look at the coaching changes across the NFL, we've just seen more additions
21:01from the Mick Shanahan coaching tree, Landon coordinator, head coaching jobs.
21:06And we even have teams like the Ravens, Eagles, and Commanders, big signals that they're going
21:12to be playing under center more this season than they have in previous years as well.
21:16So I see the NFL kind of giving us this signal, like they're going to extend this heavy personnel
21:20packages out until the bubble pops.
21:23Until defenses pivot and then they'll pivot again, maybe until defenses.
21:26It's the cat and mouse of the NFL.
21:28Right.
21:28Start look, you know, bigger looks, forcing teams into, you know, more spread type stuff.
21:34Very good.
21:35Thanks as always, Rich.
21:36It's a pleasure to talk to you.
21:38Enjoy your work.
21:38Sharp football.
21:39The sharp football preview is out.
21:42Sharpfootballanalysis.com.
21:43Anything else I need to know?
21:45Nope.
21:45That pretty much covers it.
21:46Everyone have a great summer.
21:47We're looking forward to the NFL season right around the corner.
21:50All right.
21:50I'll see you in the draft circles.
21:52Thanks, Rich.
21:53All right.
21:54Rich Rebar.
21:55Lord Reeves.
21:56We'll see you in the draft circles.
21:56We'll see you in the draft circles.
21:56We'll see you in the draft circles.
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