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00:00I wanted to pick up on a conversation that I had yesterday with Sal.
00:05Sal was in for a couple of hours with me, and we had his podcast partner
00:10and News Channel 7 sports director, Matt Beauvais, on with us for a segment.
00:15And during that segment, we were talking about the Bills, talking about the AFC,
00:20and it just kind of dawned on me that, and this has been apparent for a while,
00:24but it was just one of these things that in a conversation, I'm like,
00:26oh, yeah, I guess it's different.
00:29I don't know.
00:30You maybe can help me decide how different, but for really the entirety of Allen
00:37and the Bills' ascendance, like starting, I would say starting with the 2020 season.
00:42You know, 19, they were good, and Allen looked promising,
00:45but 20 is the year they became a Super Bowl contender, right?
00:48I think we can all agree on that.
00:50And so that's where my line of demarcation is.
00:54And since then, it's been the Bills and the Chiefs and the Ravens mostly.
00:59The Ravens have had a couple of weird years mixed in there.
01:02But there's been a tear every offseason.
01:06It's, okay, well, the best teams are those three, and, you know, Cincinnati takes a turn,
01:12and, like, Miami had a hot minute when they scored 70 points on Denver, right?
01:16And they were ahead of the Bills for a little while.
01:18They were ahead of the Bills for quite a while, actually.
01:19So the Bills needed to beat them at the end of that season.
01:22I don't remember which one of the six seasons it is.
01:25Punt return, baby.
01:26Yeah, they needed a, you know, so, you know, other teams have sort of, you know, come and gone.
01:34But for, I think, six years, five, six years, Bills, Chiefs, Ravens has been the, even on years,
01:42even in years where the Ravens were coming off of, like, Lamar was injured or they just had a weird
01:48year.
01:49Not that that's happened a bunch of times, but they've had a couple of weird ones.
01:53They're right back at the top anyway because, you know, Jackson's healthy.
01:56The roster's great.
01:57And I feel like for a variety of reasons, some having to do with the three teams that have been
02:04at the top,
02:05sort of, I don't know, there's changes, significant changes.
02:09Really with all three, if you want to count Mahomes recovering from a torn ACL as a,
02:13it's at least a development, if not a change.
02:16But new coach in Baltimore, new coach here.
02:19And here's Jacksonville.
02:21And here are the Chargers.
02:24And the Bengals might be back.
02:26And Denver.
02:27And Denver, of course, they should be at the top.
02:29And New England.
02:30And I feel like it's a lot harder to put a hoop around the, I know the betting markets will
02:38do it,
02:39but, like, from my perspective, without thinking about what the odds are,
02:43I think it's harder to set the tiers.
02:46I feel like the top teams have maybe slipped, or there's, whether they slipped or not,
02:52there's reason to wonder if they'll maintain their level,
02:55or they're going to just automatically win 12 or 13 games.
02:58And all these other guys are sort of like, they're, like, New England could be ready to blast off.
03:04The Chargers might be ready to blast off.
03:06If they're ever going to blast off, it's got to be now.
03:09Yeah.
03:11And, you know, Denver.
03:13So, it's just, like, a lot, it's a lot muddier, I think, than it's been in, since the Bills arrived
03:19at contender status.
03:20I think it's a lot harder to separate them from six or seven teams instead of just two or three.
03:27Funny enough, I think you put together exactly why the Bills fired Sean McDermott.
03:35Because, you know, I mean, how many times in the last seven years, nine years, seven years,
03:39we said, man, what an opportunity squandered.
03:42Well, the opportunity squandered last year was no Mahomes, no Burrow.
03:48So, and, you know, so, yeah, a little bit of, I think we've known this for a little while now,
03:54which is the AFC is dominated by the league's best quarterbacks.
03:56The NFC right now, other than Stafford who won the MVP last year, he's on his, what, second to last,
04:03last season?
04:04Something along those lines.
04:06And Jalen Hurts, I don't know, I'm not really willing to have that conversation about where he sits in the
04:10hierarchy.
04:10But, you know, there are very few quarterbacks on the NFC side of the aisle.
04:14They're really dominated by the best defenses in the league, other than the Texans, right?
04:18But, I don't know, you look at the AFC, I agree, it's probably 10 or 11 deep.
04:23In terms of teams, that can at least push to be playoff teams.
04:26It also, to me, features some of the worst teams in the Jets.
04:29But I think the Dolphins right now are looking as, like, maybe the worst team we've seen in a long
04:34time.
04:35Yeah, I mean, it's, the Bills are in a spot this year where they're going to have the most difficult
04:41schedule
04:41I think they've had since Josh Allen's been the starting quarterback.
04:44I think there's probably the most unknown they've had in terms of what their floor is
04:48and what the defensive side of the ball is going to look like.
04:50Because we just, with McDermott, the predictability of what they were going to do in defense,
04:54we knew what they were going to do.
04:55Opposing offensive coordinators knew what they were going to do.
04:57Everybody knew what the Bills were going to do when Sean McDermott was calling the defense.
05:01Whether he was calling it directly or indirectly through Bobby Babich, who's another, you know,
05:05it's a McDermott disciple.
05:07I think we can all sit here today on July 9th and say, the AFC, the schedule,
05:14but I think, you know, you can get caught up in a lot of that too.
05:17Because I think every year we say, wow, the schedule's hard.
05:19Because the Bills have been playing a first place schedule for the better part of half a decade.
05:23So they're all hard.
05:24They're all difficult schedules.
05:26But I also think you do this exercise.
05:28There isn't room in the AFC West for everybody to be good if the Raiders are going to take a
05:33step forward.
05:34Which I would think and maybe argue they will.
05:36But, I mean, again, that's the conversation I feel like we have ever.
05:39The Raiders will be sure.
05:42I wonder if there will ever be a good team that lives in Las Vegas, Nevada.
05:46The AFC has a bunch of these young quarterbacks on the cusp that have not done it when it matters.
05:52Justin Herbert, to me, is the guy that stands out the most because he is often crowned as the fourth
05:58quarterback behind Allen Mahomes in Burrow.
06:01Right, wrong, indifferent.
06:02And then Trevor Lawrence has their first place, second or with his second seed, number two seed in the playoffs
06:08this year for Jacksonville.
06:09Only to throw the game losing interception with a chance to go down and win a game.
06:14So, yeah, I think there are some questions about whether these young ones can do the job and get over
06:20the hump.
06:21And the question will be, I think we talked about this on Tuesday with the Bengals.
06:25If not now, when for the Bengals?
06:27Because they decided, we're done doing the thing where we have to score 60 points to stay in football games.
06:33They went and got, I don't know, maybe not the best interior defensive lineman in football, but right up there.
06:38A real, real good one.
06:39Right up there.
06:40I feel like that's been largely ignored in the Bengals' defense's terrible narrative.
06:45Would agree.
06:45They went out, and Al Golden, who was the architect of last year's, I don't know, 32nd-ranked defense, is
06:52a very good defensive coordinator.
06:53So they have the scheme, the coach.
06:55They now have a couple of linchpins inside.
06:57They've spent first-round picks on defense.
07:00If not now, it's going to be a win thing for the Bengals.
07:03And I don't know.
07:04I don't, I'm not convinced the Ravens are, I think the Ravens are who they were last year.
07:11Now, I think that's who they are.
07:13They're an aging roster, much like, I think, some of the other AFC teams.
07:16I think the Bills have been trying to infuse youth wherever they can.
07:21All of this to say, if the Bills are 10% better on offense than they were last year, it
07:29would be hard not to be a little better on defense?
07:31No?
07:31Would we agree?
07:32I, you know, I think the baseline, I know last year was a wonky year for it.
07:40Yeah.
07:42But maybe my biggest hang-up on just assuming the Bills are going to roll out of bed and win
07:4811 or 12 games is that the defense, when I hear, oh, this guy's dropping weight like 25 pounds, and
07:56we got this guy putting 25 pounds on because we got different roles in mind for them, I'm just like,
08:02okay, I don't know.
08:03Do you really have the dudes you need or want for what you want to do?
08:07Yeah.
08:07I think the defense, my best case scenario for the defense is that there is some of that, but they
08:16hopefully survive the brutal start to their season, and by the time the playoffs come around, you know, they've won
08:24their 11 games and they're in, and the defense has sort of taken shape.
08:28Leonard figures out who he wants where and who can do what and when and all that, and that they
08:36get some answers that really I think it's very hard to have until they play a meaningful football game.
08:42I'd agree.
08:43I would agree with that.
08:44I also think, though, that there is a best-case scenario that I think is not totally like a far
08:49-fetched idea for this defense, which is that they have the best secondary they've had since this third year of
08:58McDermott where you've got, you know.
09:00Anytime where Dredavious White was healthy and Benford was a hot-shot rookie and you still had Hyden Poyer.
09:05Yes, in Price.
09:06And Teron Johnson.
09:07I think they've got the best safety duo they've had since Prime, Poyer, and Hyde, which is what had largely
09:13made the McDermott defenses go.
09:15I don't know that it will necessarily be the thing that makes a Jim Leonard defense go, but I think
09:20there is somewhat a lot riding on Max Harrison's year two.
09:23I think there was flashes in year one.
09:25The concerns about him being small and injury-prone, you know, they showed up.
09:31But I think, you know, Benford continually, I think I just saw an article this week that came out about
09:37the top ten corners in football.
09:39He's not even honorable mention.
09:40No one's even acknowledging.
09:42And I don't know, maybe it's just a bias because we think he's a really good player and he has
09:46been very good since the team drafted him and subsequently re-signed him a season in our off-season ago.
09:52But, like, I don't know, I look at the secondary and I say, if you're looking at the strength of
09:56this defense, I'm looking square into the secondary.
09:59And that goes in acknowledging that the linchpins of that secondary are all gone.
10:05No Teron Johnson.
10:06Yeah, yeah, that's right.
10:06Tredavious White, you know, in and out.
10:08But, like, and obviously both safeties.
10:10Jordan Poyer's not walked through the door again for the third time.
10:13And I don't know if they're worried about Hairston, but I've said this to Sal, like, I would not be
10:19surprised if Igbeneson beats Hairston out.
10:23Maybe even right away.
10:26I think, you know, he's got the length that they want.
10:29He's a different style player.
10:30Like, those sound like code words to me to, like, yeah, that's not our guy.
10:36You know, like, so we'll see.
10:38I might be rushed.
10:39Sal always tells me I'm rushing that.
10:40He's like, well, you know, later in the year maybe I could see it if Hairston doesn't perform.
10:45But, and I'm not arguing.
10:46He's going in to the summer.
10:49Like, that's his job.
10:50Yep.
10:50But, I don't know, man.
10:52My eyes are wide open to the IGB beating him out.
10:56So that might not even be a problem spot for them.
11:00They've got more depth there now with, you know, with the draft pick.
11:03High end depth.
11:04Yeah.
11:04High end depth.
11:05Right.
11:05Like, maybe starter caliber depth.
11:07Which is, you know, a luxurious thing to have.
11:11I'm still super, like, interested in why they're as confident as they seemingly are about linebacker.
11:19I just don't know what they have at linebacker.
11:25I mean, I know Terrell Bernard is a captain on this team, and he has flashed in moments, but he
11:32hasn't been healthy.
11:34The injury last year concerned me in that it slowed him down considerably.
11:38And what he was kind of good for was his foot speed.
11:43And I hope that's not a long-term consequence of the, you know, I think continued injuries to his lower
11:48body.
11:50Dorian Williams was in crutches, like, up until, like, two weeks ago.
11:54And I like Guilherme Zor, but he hasn't taken a snap with pads on in the NFL yet.
12:00So there's a lot of people very quick to say, well, he's going to be your day one starter.
12:04And I'm like, I don't know.
12:06I feel a little weird that a fourth round, right?
12:08Fourth round pick is your day one starter?
12:10To me, screams, I don't think I have a very good group if a fourth round pick is starting right
12:16away.
12:16I feel that.
12:18So, linebacker, listen, I think they're going to be largely what they've been up front for the past five seasons,
12:23which is young and experienced and leaning on someone to step up.
12:27You know, someone to step up.
12:29Like, I was talking about this, I don't think it was on the show, it was on Pat Moran's podcast,
12:35I think I mentioned this.
12:36I could see them generating more pressure than they have in past years, but still not having, like, a guy
12:45that breaks through and has 12 or 15 sacks or anything.
12:48Like, I don't think that guy exists on the roster.
12:51Like, I think Chubb will pitch in, the rookie will pitch in, maybe Russo is freed up because he's playing,
12:57like, more of an actual edge.
12:59Russo is the one guy out of that whole group that I think, I don't know how much his production
13:08as a pass rusher has been stymied by what his role was in Sean McDermott's defense.
13:14Right.
13:14Which was stay at home, edge setting, run defender.
13:18Sometimes he's going to get, like, the scramble rules sack.
13:23He was never really the guy that beats you around the edge, but he also wasn't the guy that was
13:28freed up to do it.
13:29So, to me, he is, I think it's, you know, Chubb's right there behind him, but there is Russo, Gap,
13:37Chubb to who are the dogs on this defensive line, or, you know, whatever you want to call it, in
13:43this pass rush group.
13:44To me, it's Russo and then a pretty big gap.
13:47Yeah.
13:47So, I'm, the best thing I think about the defense is that there will be more pass pressure schematically.
13:56Again, I don't know if that means I'm going to get somebody that's just, you know, killing it.
14:02And I don't even know if that'll result in more sacks.
14:05I mean, ideally it would, but, you know, pressure is the name of the game.
14:10Like, just get the guy off his spot, try to mess him up, that kind of thing.
14:13Well, you know, the lay of the land there and there being that many teams, to me, in the pool,
14:20like where we started with, it's not just these top three anymore, it's more like, it's deeper, leads me to
14:26the next thing, which was, Beauvais asked me, and I even said, the best would you take question is one
14:34that hurts to answer.
14:35Like, one that I don't, like, oh, I don't want to say yeah to that, but I think I would.
14:41And that was, would you take 11?
14:44Would you take 11 wins right now?
14:48And I said yes, like, gun to my head, yes.
14:53Because of all of this, the schedule, the new, the new head coach, the new scheme on defense, the deeper
14:59pool, all of it, I think, I mean, 12, I think is a great year no matter what, no matter
15:05what seed you end up at, I think you've had a great year if you win 12 games.
15:08I think considering everything that we've just talked about, I think if this team wins 11 games and is maybe
15:15in good shape physically, health-wise, when they get to the playoffs, I think I would take that.
15:21I think I would, I shouldn't add the caveat about health, you can't know.
15:24I think I would take 11 wins.
15:27Thinking about that, the start to the schedule alone, those first five games are brutal, I think.
15:33Like, so, I don't know, what, is it too soon?
15:37I mean, it's July 9th, and I'm saying I would settle for 11, which is, you know, I'm basically saying
15:43I'm not going to get the one seed.
15:44Definitely not getting the one seed.
15:46So, maybe that's an itchy, I'm itchy on the trigger finger there, but I don't know, I'm in a place
15:53where I would have to sign for that, I think.
15:5911 wins, you are biting fingernails in December.
16:06You are, the in the hunt graphic is on our television every week.
16:14I don't, I don't know that I, I don't, I don't think I, I don't think I'm signing up for
16:17that.
16:18I, I also think the conversation this week, maybe it was on NFL Live, about, you know, which team and
16:25coach and player has the most pressure on them to perform, and I think it's, I think it's very clearly
16:30the Bills.
16:30And that's, I don't think that's just an easy, they're an easy target.
16:34I think that they do have the most pressure because they fired their head coach, and which means 12 wins
16:40in an AFC Divisional round loss is not good enough anymore.
16:43So, they could go 17-0 and lose in the Divisional round again, and no one's going to give Joe
16:50Brady credit.
16:51I don't think anyone, they get to 16-1, and everyone's going to say, yeah, it's a pretty good season,
16:58but what happens?
17:00What now?
17:01When they get to January.
17:02Well, that, that, yeah, that would, that would, you'd think 16-1 would give you the benefit of the one
17:07seed.
17:08I think you would, I think, but, you know, I guess where I'm going with that part of the conversation
17:12is, maybe I would take the 11, just because I think it doesn't matter about, they've done everything you could
17:19do in the, in the regular, I almost called it preseason.
17:21Because that's what it's sort of bleeping feels like at this point, which is, you've won 13 games, you've won
17:2812 games, you've won 11 games, you've made it to two AFC Championship games, you've won at home.
17:33You've had the best differential in NFL history over the course of five seasons, and none of it has really
17:41gotten you to where, so I guess I'm open to a team, but I think you also have to look
17:48at history, which is, I think there's one wildcard team that's ever made a Super Bowl.
17:54I think that you have to be in a scenario where you have, last year, they had to go on
17:59the road, it's hard to win three road games.
18:02It's hard in the NFL, and the Bills proved it.
18:05I mean, they went into, into Jacksonville, not without sacrifice.
18:08I mean, they lost, again, every year we talk about it, Bulldog, when they've got to play in the wildcard
18:13round, they lose somebody important, and then the next week you're playing without them.
18:19So, would I take 11 wins? I mean, likely it's probably 85% chance with 11 wins you're making the
18:26playoffs.
18:27I think I would just like to be safe and get 12. They had to play on the road with
18:3112 wins last year.
18:35Yeah, I know, I know, I know what I'm saying when I say it.
18:40I'm just going to tell you that the, what are the, is this chat GP? I don't even know what
18:46it is.
18:46Good. The Google? AIs. The Google?
18:49Whatever. Co-pilot search, I think is what it says here.
18:52Okay, yeah, yeah, yeah. AI?
18:5411 wildcard teams have reached the Super Bowl, but seven of them winning the championship.
18:58Really? Yeah.
18:59I didn't know that. I guess that's why you've got AI to...
19:04Tampa in 20, Baltimore in 12, Packers in 10.
19:09Man, I thought, I could have sworn that one of those Giants teams was a wildcard,
19:15but I guess I must be mistaken. Or this thing, here's the thing, I said what I said about whatever
19:22this engine is.
19:23Yes.
19:24It makes mistakes.
19:25It does.
19:26And so I'm going to have to double check.
19:28And you know that I don't.
19:29No, there's no way that you made mistakes.
19:32I don't make mistakes.
19:33Could not be that.
19:34I want to sit with the most pressure in the league is on the Bills.
19:41Because Baltimore's in the same situation.
19:45Yeah.
19:45I mean, and their quarterbacks won the MVP twice.
19:49So I think that those two teams, to me, are still running the same race.
19:55But even with Baltimore, they have failed.
19:59I mean, in this whole era, since Josh Allen's really been Josh Allen, the Bills haven't missed the playoffs.
20:06Ravens have.
20:08And I know the Ravens.
20:10The Ravens moving on from their coach feels a little different than the Bills moving on from their coach.
20:14It felt way more time.
20:16Like, it felt time a couple of years ago with Harbaugh.
20:18But it kind of seemed like he had a lifetime contract.
20:21And that was just going to.
20:21You win a Super Bowl.
20:23You've got time.
20:24You've got a lot of runway, yeah.
20:25I don't know.
20:26And I don't.
20:28There's going to be at least some controversy in stating this.
20:32But I think largely the league views Josh Allen differently than Lamar Jackson.
20:44Right?
20:46I'm not sure.
20:48I think that Josh Allen gets the same reputation in the playoffs that Lamar Jackson does with absolutely no proof
20:59of that.
21:00Yeah, right.
21:01Right?
21:02But he gets lumped into the same conversation of Josh.
21:04Like, I saw a thing the other day.
21:06There was a choke.
21:08I don't know.
21:08Oh, it was the Egypt.
21:09And it was Mo Salah with Josh Allen as his head.
21:14And I'm like, what?
21:18But that's, I don't know.
21:20I guess where I'm going with this is, I think the reason that.
21:22He did kind of kill him in Denver.
21:25He did.
21:26He did.
21:27He also kept him afloat.
21:30Sure.
21:31Yeah.
21:32He was bailing water out of a boat that he himself put the holes in.
21:36Right.
21:37Right.
21:37We've got to take a break.
21:38Yeah, we do.
21:39Most pressure in the league on the Bills, says Nate Geary.
21:42Is that okay?
21:43Sure, yeah.
21:44I'm being very talk show-y there.
21:45Yeah, it was.
21:468-0-3-0-5.
21:47It is, after all, a talk show.
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