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00:00Bet Online today sent out quarterback stats, prop bets, and here are the numbers on Josh
00:08Allen, and I'll leave the one that I think I would, I just, I'm stubborn, the one I think
00:15that I would play first for last.
00:19So keep in mind with these, when they put out season-long prop bets, that it pretty
00:28much, you want to remember that not everybody's going to play 17 games.
00:33In fact, Allen, who hasn't missed a start in years, doesn't really even play 17 games
00:40because he plays one play the last two years in the last one.
00:43But you know, injuries, and there's probably some threshold, I don't know, there's probably
00:49some threshold that players need to clear for the bets to be valid, but the numbers are
00:55going to be lower than if you add up single game projections or like other years, just
01:00because if Allen were to miss a month or something, that could decide the bet.
01:05So here are the numbers on him.
01:09Passing yards, 3,600 and a half.
01:12So that would be his lowest total in seven years.
01:17Again, keep in mind that injury point.
01:19And it's not by much, last year was 36-68, 2024 was 37-31.
01:26So it's within 100 to 150 passing yards from the last two years, this number.
01:34Are you thinking, I mean, if you are a gambler and want to play some of these, of course you
01:41can, are you thinking just whether you are or not, that Allen is in position for a bigger
01:48passing year?
01:50That has been my vibe here for a while.
01:55And that comes from different conversations that I've had and that we've had with different
01:59analysts and ADP chasing on Tuesday nights, last night, different, I talked to Matt Collar
02:04today on his Purple Insider podcast.
02:06You know, the point, a point Warren Sharp made on this show a couple of weeks ago, look,
02:12the Bills might have to chase more because of their schedule and or because of maybe their
02:17defense isn't as good.
02:18It doesn't have to be down, but people are going to predict that.
02:23So if that's right, you would think you'd see more passing and maybe then you get Allen
02:29back up into the 4,000 yard territory.
02:32I mean, even 4,000 yards, if you take out his first two years, first year he played
02:37part-time because he had that elbow injury in Houston, I mean, he started game two as
02:43a rookie, right?
02:44The big plan that Nathan Peterman won the job and then couldn't even make it to the third
02:49quarter of the opener.
02:51Okay, well, that was worth a lot.
02:52And then Allen, the next year, played them all.
02:54He's played them all ever since, pretty much, except for the occasional final game of the
03:00season, meaninglessness.
03:02And so since 2020, six years ago, he has been 40, about 4,300 yards or more the first four
03:13of those years and then down pretty sharply the last two.
03:17Attempts down as well, naturally.
03:21And, you know, why?
03:23Why is that?
03:23Diggs was gone.
03:25That changed things a lot.
03:26He didn't have an elite number one receiver anymore, far from it.
03:30And then you had Cook, Pop, leading the league in touchdowns, leading the league in rushing,
03:36positive game scripts.
03:37You just didn't need Allen to be as prolific throwing the ball.
03:42So a sharp decline the last two years from the previous four in terms of his yardage volume
03:49as a passer.
03:50So 3,600, to me, given Warren's point, the schedule, the game script stuff, seems pretty
03:57modest.
03:58If I were to bet that, I would bet the over on Allen.
04:01Just really, that's entirely why.
04:04It's thinking that they might need him to do that.
04:07And if they do, shouldn't it work out?
04:10I mean, no matter what you think of the Bills receiving core, if they need Allen to throw
04:1540 passes a game now because they're losing, or whatever it is, then you would think that
04:21that wouldn't go so badly.
04:23I think interceptions would tick up, and that's another one.
04:26So he threw 10 last year, and this year's line is 10.5.
04:31So I think I would go over on his yards, over on his interceptions, and then maybe also over
04:37on his touchdowns, 24.5 touchdown passes would be, 24 would be his lowest, again, since 2019.
04:46Really, we're looking at, statistically, in the betting markets, we're looking at Josh
04:52Allen in a new way, where he's more, not quite game manager, won't go that far, but not the
05:00pinball machine numbers, some of them anyway, from, say, five years ago.
05:05So modest lines on passing yards, passing touchdowns, 24.5, interceptions, 10.5.
05:14Last year, touchdowns, he had only 25, his lowest, in six years.
05:19They're all, everything's his lowest in six years.
05:21And then you have rushing yards at 500.5.
05:27And so for some perspective on that, that's a little bit under the last three years.
05:34It's well under the two years before that.
05:37I mean, look at the monster, monster seasons, 21, 22.
05:41But working backward, the last three seasons in terms of rushing yards for Josh Allen, 579,
05:48579, 531, 524.
05:51They're offering you 500 and a half.
05:53You can't know if he's going to miss time.
05:55If he doesn't, and it's consistent with how he's played, that would be another over.
06:00I would be reluctant to do it.
06:02I have always been, I mean, it's never been successful, shy about betting overs on his rushing.
06:12Because I think we see a day where that is curtailed, and that can be from the other reasons.
06:19Have to throw the ball more to stay in games.
06:22Probably don't want to sound too dramatic about that, but it could be different this year.
06:26And just sort of the natural progression for a quarterback who's rushed as often as Allen has.
06:34If he has a normal year in the rushing category, he'll maybe get to 1,000 carries for his career.
06:43And then you have the touchdowns, which I cannot quit as a stat.
06:47Talking to Sal about it on Monday.
06:49Any chance I get to marvel at Josh Allen and rushing touchdowns, I'll take it.
06:55Because it's just incredible that he ranks as high as he does in NFL history already as a quarterback.
07:04I mean, if you had a running back, if it were whoever, James Cook, or James Cook who has been
07:12here for longer, or McCoy or somebody else.
07:15If the Bills had a running back who in the last eight years had totaled 79 touchdowns, almost 10 per
07:22season.
07:22I mean, that's record stuff.
07:23And they have it in Allen, in addition to everything else he's accomplished.
07:28This year's line from BetOnline on his rushing touchdowns is 11.5.
07:34And I just can't.
07:36It's not that, it's not not on par with his career.
07:43I mean, it's, this includes his first two years.
07:45He averages 10 per.
07:48And if you take out, well, if you just make it the last three, it's 41 rushing touchdowns the last
07:54three years.
07:55Almost 14 per season.
07:5714 last year, 12 the year before, 15 the year before that.
08:03I have never wanted to bet the over on this.
08:06There's the injury thing, although he's been impervious to that so far.
08:09And then just sort of like the, let's be normal, let's just be people here.
08:1411.5, 12 more rushing touchdowns again.
08:18And this is always, haven't really gotten too far into it, and I'm not sure I will today.
08:24But it's always an interesting topic these summers with Allen and rushing and whether or not this year will be
08:32the year where they rein him in, in this way.
08:34I think they've certainly talked about it.
08:37New coach now.
08:39But they've certainly talked about doing it.
08:41Brandon Bean has talked about it.
08:42I think all else equal, everybody in the organization that matters would like to see those numbers come down just
08:50for his own sake, right?
08:53I mean, durability and the rest, he's everything to their chances.
08:57But it hasn't really happened yet.
08:58I think they've wanted to see it.
09:00And I think what's happened is they get to a point in their season and they feel like, well, this
09:06is it now.
09:06And there's no sliding anymore.
09:10There's no throwing the ball away anymore.
09:12We need this first down.
09:14We need this touchdown.
09:15And I think probably that would be their attitude again this year.
09:21Maybe not.
09:22But Allen hasn't sounded.
09:24It's the interview with Tyler Dunn I'm thinking of.
09:27You know, he had that comment to Tyler about, basically, in so many words,
09:32I'll play until I can't play the way I want to.
09:35Well, we know what that looks like.
09:38The way he plays, that's how he wants to play.
09:41And that includes, I mean, absolutely, sometimes reckless approach with the ball.
09:47I mean, he's going.
09:48And maybe it's as simple as when he feels like he can't go like he used to be able to
09:53do, maybe that's it.
09:55But there's no sign at all that we're there yet.
09:59I just can't get to any quarterback.
10:03Well, probably.
10:04Try me.
10:05Rushing for more.
10:06If anybody's going to do it, it's probably him, right?
10:0811 and a half touchdowns.
10:10So I'm kind of like over on all the passing stuff with Allen.
10:13I doubt I'll actually play any of this.
10:15But maybe.
10:17Over on all the Allen passing stuff.
10:19Tougher schedule.
10:21A new coach that maybe it'll be correct that he wants to open Allen up.
10:28He's got D.J. Moore.
10:30If it's right that Brady has been held back in some ways by McDermott,
10:36well, okay, here's his chance to prove that he was.
10:41And there are people who think that that was the case.
10:45Again, talking with Matt Collar today, this came up.
10:49And he asked me, you know, a question kind of about Brady
10:51and what might be different about it.
10:54And I referenced how – I always say the one thing.
10:58Like every coach says they're going to be more aggressive.
11:00And, you know, nobody ever doesn't say that.
11:04So I mentioned that.
11:05I've mentioned how – I mean, you had people, I think maybe Sal, I'm not sure,
11:10but some of the inside voices are talking like they think Brady was –
11:17is held back fair to McDermott, like just sort of couldn't do everything he wanted to do.
11:23The implication seems to be that this is just going to be bigger,
11:29whatever that means on offense.
11:30That's probably more passing, but it's just going to be bigger.
11:35And I don't know.
11:36I feel like that's the message that if I were Brady or if I were the Bills,
11:39I would want out.
11:40And there's no evidence really of anything yet.
11:44So really it's just talk.
11:46And, you know, if you're asking Brady himself even off the record about this kind of thing,
11:51I think that's what he's probably going to want you to know is that, yeah,
11:54like I want to do things a little bit differently, whatever that is.
11:56But we have no sign of it yet, and we may not until game start.
12:01Like even in the preseason, what kind of evidence will there be?
12:05Yesterday we talked about Brady some, and I got a call from a fan who's like,
12:10how can you believe in this guy?
12:12And I thought that was way too harsh because I think there are ways to do it.
12:17I said yesterday, and at the time he was promoted,
12:21I think it's kind of weird that they fired Sean McDermott for the sake of change
12:27and then promoted their offensive coordinator.
12:29Like I did not expect that to happen after the McDermott move.
12:34But what, you know, what he's got in front of him,
12:37plus side obviously Allen, and he's been here.
12:43Like he's familiar with what he's got, and they're familiar with him.
12:46He's even familiar with DJ Moore from Carolina.
12:49So there doesn't need to be any sort of ramping up period, I think, for their offense.
12:56But look at who he's going up against on the schedule this year, the Bills.
13:01Like we've talked about the schedule, of course, and the challenges.
13:06The beginning is kind of a gauntlet.
13:07There's another one later on in the season.
13:10But think of it, or look at it in terms of coaches.
13:13D'Amico Ryan's okay.
13:15I mean, they've won that division two of the last three years.
13:18They've been a playoff team.
13:20He probably deserves some credit.
13:22And, you know, C.J. Stroud hasn't really been good at all for the last couple years.
13:26I don't want to put D'Amico Ryans on the list of some of these other guys.
13:30But, you know, I think he's respectable.
13:31I think that that's fair.
13:34Then you get Dan Campbell in week two.
13:37Our king.
13:39Everything.
13:40Fourth downs, of course, all that stuff.
13:42But Campbell has fans in every corner.
13:46You know, he's got the nerds.
13:48He's got the jocks.
13:49He's got sort of everybody.
13:50You know, it's a bounce-back year opportunity for them.
13:53They were down last year.
13:55But he's won a lot of games and has earned a lot of respect.
13:58Then you go to Jim Harbaugh in week three, whose teams are always good.
14:04With Mike McDaniel, by the way, and every fantasy show I'm on, people are gaga for the Chargers
14:11because of the players they have and now Mike McDaniel.
14:15Then you go to Mike Vrabel.
14:17No kidding.
14:19Like, Mike Vrabel, defending coach of the year.
14:22You know all about him.
14:23That's week four.
14:24Then you go to Sean McVay.
14:26How about that stretch?
14:28Are they all coach of the year winners?
14:30I don't know if Campbell won.
14:32But Harbaugh's been to a Super Bowl.
14:34Vrabel, McVay.
14:35McVay's won.
14:36Like, you've got a pretty good run there.
14:39Clint Kubiak with the Raiders.
14:40People like his mind, his vision of offense.
14:45He's not deserving of being in this club yet, of course.
14:49But, you know, people tend to be optimistic about him.
14:54Baltimore's coach is new, Minter.
14:56Kevin O'Connell in Minnesota.
14:58Matt, by the way, I think called the Bills game in Minnesota the Vikings game of the year.
15:03The best game on the Vikings schedule is the Bills game in Week 9.
15:07Monday night in Minnesota.
15:09Aaron Glenn, Jeff Halfley.
15:11I mean, if the Bills are going to get there, you kind of think they might have to just sweep
15:16the Jets and Dolphins.
15:17The weakest games on their schedule would seem to have to be two Jets, two Dolphins, and then Raiders, and
15:24then I don't know, after that.
15:26So you get your Jets, Dolphins, back-to-back.
15:28They have that twice, the last two games of the year are against those teams as well.
15:32Andy Reid, Thanksgiving.
15:35Vrabel again.
15:38Matt LaFleur in Green Bay.
15:41Something to be said for that guy.
15:43Been there a long time.
15:44Ben Johnson in Chicago.
15:47This is now, we're into Christmas time.
15:49Sean Payton again in Denver.
15:52And then the Dolphins and the Jets.
15:53So, really, it's, for me, more about the first five weeks and what Brady has in front of him.
16:00Just the teams and, you know, naturally it lines up.
16:03It's the coaches.
16:04D'Amico Ryans, Dan Campbell, Jim Harbaugh with Mike McDaniel, Mike Vrabel, Sean McVay.
16:11Brady's going to want to come out of the box pretty hot.
16:14And he's going to maybe have to, or the Bills are going to maybe have to, to hold their own
16:19against those teams.
16:21And I think if they don't, Brady is probably who we're talking about.
16:25Brady and Bean.
16:26It's not going to be Allen.
16:28That's a tough, that's a tough start.
16:31Raiders away.
16:32Break.
16:32And then the Ravens.
16:33Really interesting year.
16:35They all are.
16:37So, there are some of Josh Allen's stat lines for the year and some thoughts on the new head coach.
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