00:00In the forecast feed, we're dealing with a sizzling heat dome,
00:03and I want to talk about the record highs that will be coming in for some
00:07in the northern Rockies and into the northern plains,
00:09but also how that heat dome is going to suppress the storms in the eastern U.S.,
00:16south, south and southeast of the belly of that big ridge of high pressure,
00:20and that's going to lead to some very heavy rain for some in the south as well.
00:24So kind of a multifaceted impact here with the weekend storyline
00:30and into early parts of next week.
00:32In fact, as we take a look at the big picture here for the weekend,
00:36I'm going to switch over to this view.
00:39I'll get myself out of the way so you can see the full map.
00:41Numerous storms in the south, but as we see this gradual transition,
00:45a big heat dome is going to be building upper-level high,
00:48pulling up into the northern Rockies,
00:50and then expanding into the plains into early next week.
00:54And what's that do?
00:55Well, with that broad flow around it,
00:58it's going to ultimately kind of help to direct a cold front southward.
01:02I'm probably exaggerating a little bit in how south it makes it,
01:05but it's going to camp out some thunderstorms down farther south.
01:08So we'll look at that as well.
01:10But initially, the big heat dome,
01:12record-challenging highs from the Rockies into the northern plains.
01:15As we kick this off here, you can see Friday, Saturday, Sunday,
01:18it's strengthening over the Four Corners region,
01:21and if there's any movement, and there will be movement by Sunday,
01:24it's going to be pulling farther north and northeast with time.
01:27Let's take a look at some of the models here.
01:29And overall, you can see that we're dealing with the core of this heat dome.
01:35It just begins to emerge.
01:36I'm looking at this closed contour 594.
01:39It's the height at which you would,
01:42if you go high up into the atmosphere at which you reach 500 millibars.
01:45And the higher that is, the more swollen the atmosphere is.
01:48Warmth, hot air, it expands.
01:51So it's like a mountain of air.
01:52And watch as this expands,
01:54and there now suddenly that little 594 bubble,
01:57instead of being the size of maybe half of Utah,
01:58it's the size of about 10 Utahs.
02:02And that's by Saturday night and Sunday morning.
02:04In fact, it gets even bigger, and then watch what happens.
02:07Now, that mountain of air, that 594 line,
02:11goes all the way into New York and Pennsylvania.
02:16And now we have a double-barreled 600 decameter contour there,
02:22two spots.
02:23And that's where we have,
02:24it's almost like a topographical map,
02:26where the mountain of air is even a little higher now,
02:29and you get into another closed contour.
02:31So that's the idea.
02:32And into the middle of next week and later next week,
02:35after a splash of significant highs,
02:39not necessarily records,
02:41but some midsummer sizzling heat into Ohio, western Pennsylvania,
02:45by Wednesday, look at this,
02:47a trough builds back into the northeast.
02:48So it's just, we're dabbling with some heat,
02:51and then a cold front knocks us back down.
02:53But the heat dome is still intact.
02:55In fact, it restricts a bit, but not fully.
02:58So the heat continues to linger Wednesday and Thursday,
03:01with, again, a lot of heat out there,
03:04anchored over the Rockies and the Plains.
03:06And it will be pretty humid and hot into the southeast as well.
03:09So by the numbers,
03:11in fact, before I show you that,
03:13here's this product, the Shift of Tails.
03:14This is a look at statistically how hot are we compared to normal.
03:19And we begin with some pretty good heat near the Carolina coast.
03:21First, that fades, but then it escalates.
03:25It's like a seesaw.
03:26We can't all be hot at the same time.
03:27It escalates, and heat builds into the interior west.
03:31Utah, Wyoming, western Colorado, southern Idaho, and southern Montana.
03:35Let's go into Sunday, the 12th.
03:38It builds into the northern plains,
03:40and it's still present there in the Great Basin of the northern Rockies.
03:42And then into the 13th, it builds into the Great Lakes,
03:46and parts of the northeast get hot again, but only for a day or so.
03:49And then it begins to suppress again, once again.
03:52So that's a look at that product and the actual high temps.
03:56Now, there is a bias.
03:57There's going to be an improvement to the modeling of the GFS later this year.
04:02Early reports that the people who are knee-deep,
04:05actually they're up to their neck in physics and calculus and so forth,
04:09and the people behind the modeling, the atmospheric physics behind the modeling.
04:14There's going to be an improvement to ground cover,
04:17and that ground cover assessment that feeds into the models is going to be improved.
04:21There's been a high bias with some of the modeling in the GFS
04:27that tends to error too high.
04:29So sometimes you see a lot of chatter on social media about tremendous highs,
04:32and then reality shows, yeah, there's a lot of heat, and there are record highs,
04:36but it's actually not quite as bad as the modeling shows.
04:38That's often a theme.
04:40The GFS has historically over-forecast highs in the summer
04:45because of some errors with the ground cover.
04:48For example, in, I don't know if that's Miles City.
04:52I need to check my geography.
04:53Is it really going to be 114 on Monday?
04:55Probably not 114 there.
04:58Look at the European, 94.
04:59What a difference.
05:00What a difference.
05:01So, again, there will be some significant heat,
05:04but, again, we're going to be dealing with some significant highs
05:07and near-record highs, near-all-time record highs for some.
05:10This is the time of year, if you're going to break an all-time record high,
05:13this is the time of the year to do it because it is the hottest part of the year.
05:16So let's go back to our graphics here.
05:18And as we move through the next few days,
05:20Saturday, all-time record high in Salt Lake City is 107.
05:24The daily record high for July 11th is 106.
05:26We'll be around 105.
05:28We may make a run at 107 or 108 on Sunday in Salt Lake City.
05:32Sunday is the best chance for an all-time record high.
05:35Grand Junction, 104.
05:37Billings, record high is 102 for the date.
05:39All-time record high 108 in Billings.
05:41Take a look at our forecast for Sunday in Billings.
05:44We are forecasting, and here's the update, 109.
05:48We're still forecasting.
05:49We're still holding to an all-time record high forecast Sunday in Billings, Montana.
05:54That would do it.
05:55Daily record 107.
05:56All-time record high 108.
05:58We're forecasting 109.
06:00So, significant heat.
06:01Now, going back to another part of this equation,
06:05with this broad zone of high pressure east of there,
06:09you get this nudge.
06:12You can't see the tip of the arrow because my head's blocking it.
06:14North to south.
06:16That's going to suppress the storm track for thunderstorms to the south.
06:20In the short term, we are concerned through Friday,
06:23even before that becomes established,
06:25drenching downpours in south Texas through Friday.
06:28That'll be a problem.
06:28But big picture.
06:30This southward push on the east side of this sprawling heat dome,
06:35if we anchor this Sunday, Monday, Tuesday over the northern plains,
06:38off the map to the north,
06:39that's going to lead to this gradual southward shove of flow,
06:44keeping drenching downpours across the south.
06:47Drought relief is coming to some.
06:48It's going to continue to be wet in the south.
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