00:00As we're here into the quarterfinals, Tom, any shock to you?
00:04Do you think that it goes chalk from here on out?
00:09Is there going to be an upset somewhere along the way?
00:12Probably not.
00:14You know, we're looking at the England-Norway as more of a coin flip
00:16where we have, I would say, decently heavy favorites
00:18in the other three matchups.
00:20People expect Argentina to get past Switzerland.
00:22You know, Argentina did look pretty shaky.
00:25You know, going deep in the last two games,
00:27Switzerland is a very good fundamental team.
00:29You know, Joe, the question I have for you is,
00:31you know, I've talked about it with you before.
00:32I have a Morocco ticket in pocket since I've had it since December.
00:36I have them at 98-1 to win the World Cup.
00:39It's not just about advancing.
00:40It's winning it all.
00:41You know, do I hedge is my question to you.
00:44Would you hedge it, you know, 98-20?
00:46Granted, they could win this matchup against France
00:48and then they lose the next round or they lose in the finals.
00:50It doesn't matter.
00:51But I can hedge, you know, directly if I get to the finals.
00:53Would you put something on France at this point on the three-way money line
00:57to advance the next round as minus 400?
01:00I think that's just untenable at a certain point.
01:03It is.
01:04But, you know, this is a perfect situation, Tom,
01:06which is why I love the prediction markets.
01:09Because the prediction markets offer you the opportunity.
01:13You're holding a ticket that the outcome has to come to fruition
01:17for you to get paid on that ticket, right?
01:19So Morocco has to win it all in order for you to win.
01:24Not so much in the prediction markets because you're betting the repricing, right?
01:29So do the math.
01:31Find out where France is right now because, obviously, Morocco does not win.
01:36You don't win that ticket.
01:38But if they do win, you still got that ticket.
01:41And right now, you can probably get France at a pretty decent price to hedge it.
01:46And then you don't have to like France to win it all.
01:49You just want France to win enough games that you can make money on top of that as well if
01:55they go.
01:55And you can sell off at any time.
01:57So the prediction markets give hedging opportunities for somebody in your spot all day long,
02:04which is why I love it because you don't have to – you don't need it to come to fruition.
02:07You don't need the outcome.
02:09You just need it to keep repricing for you to be able to make some money there.
02:14I don't hate Morocco.
02:15I don't know that England is winning either.
02:18Tell you the truth, that's another game coming up here in the next couple of days here.
02:23Yes, they have, obviously, Mr. Kane there.
02:27But I don't know.
02:28Something tells me I think England could be in trouble.
02:32I think we're going to have a few games where we're going to go,
02:36wow, I did not see that coming.
02:38And I think Norway advancing, best goalie, maybe the best player in the World Cup.
02:45Man, it wouldn't shock me if Norway gets past England and makes a run at this.
02:50Right.
02:50And, you know, I think you and I are both high on Spain.
02:53I think that would be one of the cleaner matchups of the teams to get through.
02:56You know, we talked about the other day when we were live for Argentina
02:59and their comeback victory against Egypt.
03:01They looked pretty gassed at the end of that second half,
03:04playing a lot of minutes dating back to the game over the weekend
03:08versus Capo Verde when they had to go a full 120.
03:11And then, obviously, you know, this comeback win.
03:13So the way Switzerland plays, I think, will cause them some issues.
03:17It's going to frustrate them a lot.
03:18And seeing Norway advance, I don't think, should shock anyone at this point.
03:22If you are doubting what Norway can do and fully believing in England,
03:26you're looking at it wrong.
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