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Seth and Luke assess Kevin Clark of ESPN's take that CJ Stroud is the biggest X-factor in the whole NFL this coming season.
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00:00Is C.J. Stroud the biggest X-Factor, not only for the Texans, but in the entire NFL this season?
00:08It's Payne and Pendergast. I'm Luke Morrow, in for Sean, alongside Seth Payne.
00:13713-572-4610 to text the show. Let us know what you think about Stroud as the X-Factor, biggest
00:19in the league.
00:19You can also get in on the YouTube and Twitch chats as well.
00:23Is C.J. Stroud not only the biggest X-Factor for the Texans, but does that make him the biggest
00:27in the entire league?
00:29Fox Sports put out, actually, they put out an article where they listed the top X-Factor for every team
00:36in the NFL.
00:38And I just happened to stumble upon this now.
00:43But, Seth, before we have some audio, too, from Kevin Clark, does it feel like Stroud with everything?
00:49Fox Sports actually put David Montgomery as the biggest X-Factor for the Texans.
00:53Does it feel like Stroud's that biggest X-Factor?
00:55You know what it is? I don't think you're allowed to call a quarterback an X-Factor.
01:01Just aren't baked into the things that really matter.
01:04It's like, yeah, you've got to have competent quarterback play.
01:08Ideally, really good quarterback play for your best chance to win a Super Bowl.
01:14I think that there's so many things that factor into whether he is that guy or not this year.
01:21I kind of look at it as the X-Factor is, okay, what's the thing that most helps C.J.
01:27Stroud?
01:28And then you can evaluate your quarterback.
01:30So, for me, the X-Factor would just be whether the offensive line is actually substantially improved.
01:35So, if Stroud plays his best football, but they still can't run the football, it's not going to look that
01:43much different than last year.
01:45It just won't.
01:46So, if Stroud plays good football, but they can't pass protect, it's going to be, your ceiling might be like
01:55what the Chargers were last year with a horrible offensive line.
01:58Or C.J. Stroud for the last couple years with a horrible offensive line.
02:02So, that's where I think that, without overthinking it, C.J. will have a better year if they actually can
02:09confidently run the football,
02:10if they actually have good offensive line play throughout.
02:13And so much of that just comes down to the additions they made and the growth of the younger guys.
02:17So, maybe that's too vague for it to be an X-Factor, but just simply the performance of the offensive
02:23line is the biggest question mark for me
02:26because it's a bunch of new moving pieces and it's never as simple as just throwing a bunch of new
02:30guys in there.
02:31I think David Montgomery, as long as he stays healthy and has a good offensive lineman in front of him,
02:36he'll be just fine.
02:38But we just don't know about how good that offensive line is.
02:41Certainly.
02:42Okay, so offensive line for you.
02:44Fox Sports says David Montgomery is the biggest X-Factor for the Texans.
02:48But Kevin Clark, now part of ESPN, says not only is C.J. Stroud the biggest X-Factor for the
02:53Texans,
02:53but apparently for the entire NFL this year.
02:56I don't think it's an overstatement, guys, to say that he's the biggest X-Factor in the league
03:01because we just saw the Seattle Seahawks ride above average quarterback play and an elite defense to a Super Bowl.
03:11The Texans' defense is just as good and C.J. Stroud has the capability to be a lot better than
03:17Sam Darnold.
03:18So if C.J. Stroud regains that form, we're talking about a Super Bowl.
03:23He was the first player in history last year to have five interceptions and five fumbles in one single postseason.
03:30He did it in two games.
03:31That's like Babe Ruth, 154 games, you know, hitting home runs and all that stuff, but with turnovers.
03:36Okay?
03:36And the reason, usually, the guys don't get more than that is because they don't win a playoff game.
03:41He won playoff games because of that defense.
03:43Take a step forward.
03:44It's Super Bowl.
03:46Super Bowl.
03:48That's all you have to do, C.J. Stroud.
03:49No pressure.
03:50Yeah.
03:50That's the thing that I worry about with C.J. going into the regular season is that, look, going into
03:55the playoffs,
03:56going into the playoffs, I would have told you C.J. takes care of the football.
04:00Coming out of the Steelers game, I was continuing to say, hey, C.J. Stroud takes care of the football.
04:05Don't worry about that.
04:06That was a blip in the radar.
04:07There were some issues with the center communication, all that.
04:10I made all kinds of excuses for him.
04:12I didn't make excuses, but I said, that's going to be a blip on the radar, and you don't have
04:16to worry about C.J. Stroud going in and throwing four interceptions in the first game.
04:21You certainly don't have to worry about that.
04:23And lo and behold, that's exactly what happened.
04:25That, like, the amount of pressure on C.J. Stroud has not changed one bit since those playoffs, and it's
04:33actually, it's increased way more than it ever was before.
04:36Because they were, people would make excuses for C.J. Stroud outside of Houston going into those playoffs, and would
04:44credit him with doing some of the smarter game management style things as well.
04:49And all that kind of just flew out the window.
04:51So I think in the first few games of the regular season, it'll feel like the most pressure that's ever
04:55been on C.J. Stroud.
04:57And I just hope that he handles it really well.
05:00Yeah, certainly.
05:01I mean, that is the biggest story to watch.
05:05Yeah, I think when it comes to, like, X factor for the entire league, obviously, as Kevin Clark laid out,
05:09like, the Texans feel like they swing on, well, the offense.
05:14But it always comes back to the quarterback, whereas Clark mentioned in that clip, like, if C.J. Stroud plays
05:19well enough, it could be a Super Bowl team.
05:20If he doesn't play well enough, well, then this could be a team that, if he plays like he did
05:25in the playoffs last year, obviously, they won't go very far at all.
05:28But it just seems like there's a larger variance for the Texans based off of simply the quarterback and the
05:33offense's performance.
05:34What is, oh, my gosh.
05:36All right, just as a thought exercise.
05:38Let's say, as it tends to happen, and every single good quarterback has some bad games, but, man, week one
05:46has to be good.
05:47Like, they, I can't handle, for my own mental health, I can't handle a bad offensive performance against the Bills
05:53in week one at home.
05:54A team that you've, a team that you've just really, I mean, you've made their quarterback look like the worst
06:00version of Josh every time he's come to Houston.
06:04But they've got a new defensive coordinator, they're going to be super blitz heavy.
06:07The offensive line, like last year, got off to a really slow start in terms of picking up blitzes and
06:12all of that.
06:15It's a big test.
06:16For a team that doesn't have a good defense on paper, the Buffalo Bills, there's some things they're going to
06:21do that can present some challenges.
06:23That, man, if they haven't, if they spend all OTAs in training camp bragging about how good their pre-snap
06:30operation is and all that, like, it's going to get tested in week one.
06:34And that'll be, I promise you now, if the Texans throttle the Bills defensively, I will act like they just
06:40won the Super Bowl.
06:42And if they, but if the Texans get throttled by the Bills defense, I am going to go into a
06:47deep, deep depression.
06:48And I will lash out aggressively.
06:51That's an interesting thought and interesting question of, as you said, like, it's, it's, it's vital.
06:56It's very important.
06:57Stroud gets off to a good start or the offense.
06:59But when we say the offense, we're especially talking about the quarterback and CJ Stroud, because that's who it always
07:03comes back to.
07:04When you look at the opening slate, how good or bad is that for the offense to try to get
07:10off on good footing?
07:11You have the Bills, like you said.
07:12Then you have the Bengals.
07:14Then you have the Colts.
07:15Then you have the Cowboys who made a bunch of changes to their defense.
07:18Those are the first four games.
07:20Do you feel like that's a set up for a smooth landing for the offense?
07:23Or is that a tough way to start the year?
07:26Yeah.
07:26So much of it depends on like all of these changes that these teams have made that had bad defenses.
07:33I mean, the Bills defense wasn't bad, but they've taken, they're not what they used to be.
07:37But you have a new, you've got a new defense coordinator.
07:41They're still trying to figure out exactly where the pass rush is going to come from and what they're going
07:49to do in their secondary.
07:51But that's a relatively soft opening.
07:54The Bengals will get really interesting, because the Bengals were a horrendous defense, but they've got six new starters that
08:02they brought in via free agency.
08:03Three of them on the defensive line, and the types of guys that the Texans have struggled against, big, strong,
08:09physical, tough defensive linemen like Dexter Lawrence.
08:12That'll be the first real physical battle and test for that offensive line, especially on the interior offensive line.
08:21So I think we'll get a feel for whether the offseason improvements made a difference.
08:26But then, you know, you've got the Colts, and then the Cowboys are another one that was a really bad
08:32defense, but they spent aggressively in trying to fix it and drafted Caleb Downs.
08:38That by week four, we'll know whether they're actually an improved defense or if it's just a slightly improved.
08:44But, you know, more times than not, teams that spend aggressively on defense, they'll get a bump just by having
08:54better talent on the field, but it's not always a guarantee that all of a sudden it's a formidable defense.
08:59I do think it's interesting that the Texans faced all three of their divisional foes in the first six games
09:07of the season.
09:07Now, Stroud has always put up good numbers statistically, historically, against all three of those teams.
09:13In fact, some of his best quarterback ratings are against those teams.
09:18But, you know, the old cliche is like division opponents always, and so to have that many early on, I
09:23do think is interesting where you get the Colts in week three, the Titans week five, the Jaguars week six.
09:29You get them early, and again, you know, those are the teams that know you better than a team that
09:33you might not have played in a few years, and you can try to catch off guard.
09:36You know, one thing that I worried about when the schedule first came out was the fact that, you know,
09:41the Texans, you know, in practice they're going against the Texans 4-3 all the time.
09:48And then they get into the regular season, and the first couple teams they play run a 3-4, which
09:53doesn't matter as much as it used to.
09:55But it does matter in some of the fronts that they'll see, and there's some mental work that goes into
09:59it.
09:59The good thing is that the Texans, all three of their preseason games are against opponents who run a 3
10:04-4.
10:05So they'll have a lot more in-game, especially the young offensive linemen.
10:08They'll have a lot more reps at close to full speed, seeing those different looks in fronts where it won't
10:14be as much of an adjustment, hopefully, mentally early on.
10:17So, is Stroud the biggest X factor, not only for the Texans, but the entire NFL?
10:21Let us know, 713-572-4610.
10:24You know, I know on In the Loop, which is obviously coming up here after the rest of the top
10:29of the hour,
10:29they've been following along with this top 100 list.
10:32Yeah.
10:33And we get two new names every day.
10:35We already got one of the names today, which was J.C. Horn.
10:38Panthers cornerback was just named the 76th best player in the NFL.
10:42We're going to get number 75 at the top of the hour, I believe.
10:46Which is obviously when we'll be getting off the air.
10:50But, part of the whole thing with this top 100 list is waiting to see.
10:54Where is C.J. Stroud going to land?
10:56Is he going to be in the top 100?
10:58And we got another quarterback yesterday in Baker Mayfield who made it into the top 80.
11:05And that's after, I believe, Brock Purdy, I think, was the other quarterback.
11:08We've had two quarterbacks in the top 100.
11:10The problem I have with the top 100 is we have to wait until all 100 names come out so
11:14I can compare.
11:15It's hard to say, like, oh, Baker Mayfield was ranked 78th?
11:18Well, I don't know how many quarterbacks they put ahead of him.
11:20Like, I don't know where that puts him or who's even ahead of him.
11:23So, I need to see the whole list before I really form the opinions.
11:27This is where I'm 99% confident that C.J. Stroud made this list for a couple of reasons.
11:34One is that in 2025, C.J. Stroud was ranked ahead of Baker Mayfield in the top 100.
11:40I can't remember.
11:41Was he in the 30s?
11:4239th.
11:43Yeah, Stroud.
11:43So, in 2025, Baker Mayfield was 50th.
11:46He dropped to 77th last year.
11:48Those two guys had somewhat similar seasons.
11:53Like, C.J. won some statistical categories.
11:55Baker Mayfield won some statistical categories.
11:58You know, Baker Mayfield played the whole year.
11:59But the second thing that makes me confident that C.J. Stroud is in the top 100 is that they
12:05vote on these between Thanksgiving and the end of the season.
12:10That's where, like, most of the players who vote turn their ballots in sometimes towards the end of the season.
12:15So, the playoffs didn't factor into this at all.
12:18And I don't think that – it's not like C.J. – C.J. was playing largely the same way
12:22he did – well, like, statistically and everything,
12:25similar to what he did in 2024 where he did make the top 100.
12:30Or the – in 2025 going into – yeah.
12:33So, I think that – I think that he's going to be on it and people will debate it.
12:39It will be one of the most hotly debated ones out.
12:42This was all voted on before the playoffs.
12:44Yeah, which would be a huge – obviously a huge help for Stroud.
12:48And I'm surprised by what you said.
12:49I didn't think to go and look at last year.
12:51But I thought when I saw Baker there and I was thinking, I'm not telling you that I would put
12:55Baker higher than Stroud
12:57or I think Baker is better than Stroud.
12:59But I am a big Baker Mayfield fan.
13:00And when I saw he was only, whatever, 78th, whatever he came in as yesterday, I thought, oh, man, I
13:05don't know.
13:05Maybe Stroud really did get punished as much as Baker.
13:08I think he'll end up – because, you know, when people were voting on it in the 2024 – during
13:14the 2024 season,
13:15which would become the 2025 list, that was still on the heels of C.J.'s rookie season where there was
13:21so much buzz about him.
13:23So, I think that C.J. will still make the list, but he's probably going to be closer to Baker
13:26Mayfield this time around
13:28than he was last time around.
13:30But, like, as far as – you know, C.J. was on a better team.
13:35Baker Mayfield played 17 games and C.J. only played 13 in a quarter, 13 and a half.
13:40But they had – you know, C.J. ended up with 3,041 yards passing.
13:44Baker had 3,700, but, like, C.J. projected out to 3,600 or so.
13:50Like, touch – C.J. – like, a lot of the numbers were relatively similar.
13:54I think Baker had a better year, but C.J.'s got better PR in general.
13:58He's got a better football team.
14:00Yeah, yeah.
14:01And I know people – Texans fans have texted the show and the station and whatnot,
14:06but they will reference Baker a lot of that guy that has that, quote-unquote, like, dog in him
14:11that will find a way to lead you to victory where many feel like Stroud can be lacking that at
14:17times.
14:17Yeah, no, it's a whole different – a whole different – just both those guys and how they operate.
14:23Yeah, for sure.
14:24The biggest thing – I mean, Baker had a boatload of – yeah, he was – well, he had –
14:28it's hard to look at the cumulatives.
14:30Go ahead.
14:31Yeah, and Baker also, he dealt with injuries last year.
14:33I mean, he started off at an MVP level and then cratered second half of the year
14:36as he was trying to play through, like, a shoulder issue.
14:39So, that certainly hurt the numbers.
14:41Pro Football Focus also ranked their top 32 quarterback.
14:44C.J. Stroud, for those interested, wound up 17th on their list.
14:48So, bottom half of the quarterbacks.
14:50That's where I expected.
14:51I think their QB grade tends to run a little bit different than, like, the other QBRs
14:58and, you know, pass rating and all that.
15:00Yeah, and it seems like that's where he was for most of the last season
15:03and at the end was, like, right around 17th or 18th in their grades.
15:06Yeah, they said here if they include the playoffs, which obviously we know is a disaster for Stroud,
15:11he would have a 62 passing grade for PFF, which would actually put him 34th among 43 quarterbacks last year.
15:18So, not great when you factor in the playoffs.
15:20I don't – yeah, I don't know.
15:22Like, how would – I don't know.
15:23How would Geno Smith have done in the playoffs?
15:25I don't – last year if he had made the playoffs.
15:28That's really not – that's not fair at all, actually.
15:31I'm not trying to stick up for him overly.
15:33I don't – to even throw that in there, like, hey, when he played against a couple of really good
15:39teams
15:40at the end of the year who were playing for it all, he wasn't – it would have knocked him
15:46down below guys
15:46that didn't even make the playoffs.
15:48I reject – I reject that paragraph.
15:50Hey, I always take PFF's grades with a grain of salt.
15:53And lastly, I disagree with the texter who said Lamar Jackson doesn't perform well in the playoffs,
15:58doesn't get punished.
16:01Lamar certainly lacked playoff success or victories,
16:03but he also never had the back-to-back games like Stroud had this past postseason.
16:07Well, he also – like, Lamar Jackson has also been screwed over by Zay Flowers and his tight end.
16:15Mark Andrews.
16:15Yeah, yeah, the Mark Andrews drop and everything.
16:18It's not like Lamar Jackson doesn't play well in the playoffs.
16:20He just doesn't have the record that – which, again, before anybody brings up C.J.'s playoff wins
16:26and how incredible it is, he has as many playoffs as Mark Sanchez – playoff victories as Mark Sanchez did.
16:32So it's not –
16:32That's good context.
16:33And I give C.J. more credit for his playoff victories than I give Mark Sanchez for his.
16:38But if we're just going to add up playoff wins, we can find any number of either awesome
16:43or horrible quarterbacks where it just proves it doesn't matter.
16:46Yeah, it's true. Awesome.
16:46I mean, as far as, like, actually evaluating a guy's entire career.
16:50Right.
16:51Yeah, it's true.
16:51Also, I believe there's been a defensive touchdown in all of Stroud's playoff wins
16:55and no defensive touchdowns in all of his losses.
16:58So he can draw, you know, some parallels there too.
17:00Yeah, I thought I was going to focus on all of 진's playoff wins there.
17:00So I don't know if he gets near Blanche II.
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