00:00We can get more now with the box office company senior vice president Daniel Laurier.
00:05We heard it there from Tom Daniel saying you've got to make it great.
00:11I wonder who you think is going to do it best because we've got loads of blockbusters potentially in the
00:17next few months.
00:18We've got the Odyssey, Spider-Man brand new day.
00:21Which title do you think has the biggest opportunity to exceed expectations and really keep the momentum going in the
00:28second half of the year?
00:31Well, I'm not sure it's going to be exceeding expectations because the expectations are quite lofty for Spider-Man brand
00:38new day coming from Tom Rothman's own studio, Sony Pictures Entertainment.
00:43We're expecting this to be the highest grossing film of 2026 in terms of calendar year.
00:49We've got the Avengers coming out in December.
00:51Most of its money is probably going to come somewhere in 2027 in that holiday period.
00:56But for the calendar year, that Spider-Man sequel is really looking like it's going to be the cornerstone of
01:042026.
01:05Right now, we're tracking an opening weekend above $200 million in the United States.
01:10That would be the biggest opening weekend of the year so far.
01:15Yeah, the new Avengers comes out the same day as the new Dune.
01:18Is that healthy competition or are they cannibalizing each other's studios increasingly now?
01:26That's a great question, Lizzie.
01:28Two months ago, I'd probably follow that up with a question of my own.
01:33I wasn't really sure myself on how that would play out.
01:36But after we saw what happened with two movies that are very similar going for the same audience demographic in
01:43Obsession from Focus Features Universal and Backrooms from A24,
01:48they came out, I think, one or two weekends apart in May.
01:52And we saw those feed off each other and build each other up to fantastic over-performances.
01:59That makes me think that the market is going to benefit from having these two big titles, benefit having them
02:06side by side.
02:07So it's not just an opening weekend game.
02:09It gives folks the option to go back to the movies after enjoying one of them.
02:14This holiday season, by the way, looks fantastic.
02:17There's going to be something for everyone.
02:19And we expect it to be a very strong finish to what I think everyone agrees to at this point.
02:24It could very well be a $10 billion a year at the domestic box office, the first time we hit
02:30that mark since the pandemic reopenings.
02:34Wow. Okay.
02:35But you see studios leaning heavily on established franchises, event films.
02:40Is that just where the economics of theatrical releases is at right now?
02:45Or can we start to expect some more original releases?
02:51I hope we not only expect but get more original releases.
02:55We know that they can be risky.
02:57But I think if they are budgeted and marketed responsibly and effectively, they can really make a difference.
03:04And we saw that impact in that last weekend of May, in that last period coming into June,
03:09where something like Disney's The Mandalorian and Grogu, a Star Wars spinoff,
03:14nothing can get more franchised than that.
03:16That did okay on opening weekend, but kind of tailed off.
03:20It didn't perform, I think, along expectations.
03:22But we didn't really feel an impact from it precisely because these original titles like Obsession, like Backrooms,
03:29were able to carry the ensuing weeks and eventually surpassed it in terms of box office.
03:35So I think it's not – it's probably too early to say that it's a post-franchise era in Hollywood.
03:41I don't think that's accurate, but it is fair to say that a successful formula moving forward for this industry
03:48is one that balances big IP tentpoles, big blockbuster franchises with original films
03:55that can get moviegoers excited to see something new and exciting back at the movies.
04:01But, Daniel, even with this year's recovery, you've pointed to the impact of media M&A.
04:06You've talked about how the paramount Warner Brothers deal is going to lead to fewer theatrical releases.
04:12How significant an impact could that be in the coming years?
04:18Massive.
04:19We can't underestimate the impact of what this merger would mean for the industry
04:24and its eventual recovery and, like, let's say, success moving forward.
04:29We talk a lot about the pandemic's impact at the box office, calling things pre-pandemic, post-pandemic.
04:35That's actually a mislabeling of what we should be calling it.
04:39We should be calling it pre-Disney Fox and post-Disney Fox,
04:44a merger that was announced before the pandemic and that really came through,
04:48was realized in 2020 and beyond.
04:50So the impact here on recovery isn't the pandemic recovery.
04:53A lot of that was done in 2022, 2023.
04:56A big part of that recovery is this industry still trying to get back on its feet
05:01and find its sea legs after losing a major studio
05:04and all those properties going to another major
05:07and seeing the ensuing decrease in theatrical releases that we saw as a result of that.
05:13If we have a similar scenario with Paramount and Warner Brothers,
05:17I'm afraid that that could be a major obstacle in the continued success of this industry
05:23and the great momentum that we've been seeing over the last 12 months.
05:27I think it's going to be a huge sticking point.
05:29And it's not just folks here in the United States saying it.
05:32I know there's a lot of concerns all over the world
05:34and even in the EU on what this could mean for the industry at large.
05:39I know there's a lot of concerns all over the world and there's a lot of concerns all over the
05:40world and there's a lot of concerns all over the world.
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