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Seth and Luke assess if they can actually buy in on the Astros and break down what they feel are the biggest X-factors for the Astros for the rest of the season.
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00:00Astros are coming off the biggest series victory of the season.
00:04Can we buy all the way in on them at this point?
00:07It's Payne and Pendergast.
00:08I'm Luke Morrow in for Sean, alongside Seth Payne.
00:11You can always join the conversation as well.
00:13713-572-4610 on the text line or YouTube and Twitch chats as well.
00:21Before we do get to the Astros, though, Seth,
00:23I was asking about Peyton Manning and whatnot last segment.
00:25Yeah.
00:26So I was thinking, but we were already running long.
00:29Who would you say is the most frustrating?
00:31Because I love talking to former athletes about their careers.
00:34Who would you say is the most frustrating quarterback that you had to game plan for
00:38or go up against?
00:39Was it Peyton?
00:41Yeah, it was Peyton.
00:42That whole dynamic of him just feeling like you felt like you were being probed
00:46by aliens the entire game.
00:48And it would usually be that, man,
00:50you feel like you got a good game plan against them,
00:52but then all of a sudden there's a point in the second half
00:54where he's just got you figured out.
00:56And you could just sense it and feel it almost that, like, oh, crap.
01:02So you'd, like, Vic Fangio was our defensive coordinator at the time
01:05when I was with the Texans.
01:07And Vic was really, really smart, as he obviously remains so today.
01:12And a lot of times we'd have almost, like, two separate game plans,
01:17one for the first half, one for the second half.
01:18But even then, it's just if you don't have the horses to do anything with it,
01:25he's going to figure you out.
01:26He's going to find the weak spot in what your game plan is.
01:29I know talking to Wade Phillips, Wade told me that Tom Brady was the hardest
01:35when it came to him figuring you out.
01:37And I didn't play against Tom Brady, so I didn't, you know,
01:41I never got to experience that.
01:42But it feels, it sounds a whole lot like with Peyton Manning,
01:45but even more so with Tom Brady, that there was just whatever your best laid
01:49plans were for how you were going to confuse Tom Brady or disguise things,
01:53he figured it out somewhere along the way.
01:56Now let me ask you this, and you don't have to answer if you don't want.
01:59That's fine, and then we'll get to the Astros.
02:00Was there a quarterback that you enjoyed getting to the most,
02:04like physically getting to?
02:05Was there a quarterback you liked when you were able to lay a hit on somebody?
02:09Yeah, like Peyton Manning, just because he was hard to sack.
02:13He was really good at getting rid of the football.
02:15So, like, anytime you could actually get a clean hit on him,
02:18it was fun just because it was hard to do.
02:21When, too, you'd have a tantrum about it.
02:23You know, he'd complain to the refs or he'd be yelling at his offensive line
02:26or whatever.
02:27I only, I think I only had, I had like, I was a run stuffer.
02:30I had 17 and a half sacks in my career, but one of them,
02:33one of them was Peyton Manning, which to this day I don't know how it happened
02:38because he usually, I think it was because he wasn't expecting it.
02:42He figured that they had the big fat guy handled up front,
02:46and all of a sudden I just appeared in his face.
02:49That's right.
02:50Hey, that's a good one.
02:51That's one of the better of those 17 and a half, I'm sure.
02:54Let's talk about the Astros.
02:55They won the series over the weekend, and as I said just a moment ago,
02:59I mean, I would say it's the biggest series win of the season,
03:03but part of me still thinks back to last year, same time,
03:07they swept the Dodgers July 4th weekend, and at the time the Astros were 20 games
03:12over .500.
03:13They were seven games up on the division, and then we know how the rest of the
03:18season went where they were on the outside looking in.
03:20So I guess I'm still, you know, they're still under .500.
03:23I guess until I actually see them, like, hold on to first place, build a lead,
03:28I guess I am still, to this point, even after what we saw this weekend,
03:31a little skeptical because it is a long season.
03:33I think it happened.
03:34They always have so many injuries here in Houston that I'm still delaying my
03:38full buy-in, I guess, on this team.
03:40It is.
03:41There's something about, okay, you're one game out of the wild card,
03:43except that it's in an AL that's so decrepit that there's, like,
03:48a little bit of an ego reset you need to have.
03:53Since May 31st, they've got the best record in the AL.
03:56They've been operating like a much different baseball team.
04:00And I think that kind of, you know, Sean and I reset the season at May 15th.
04:05They've been a, you know, a 90-plus.
04:07They've been basically playing like a 95-win baseball team or so since then.
04:13That I'm not too worried about the circumstances, and I just more,
04:17I'm more watching, okay, if they make the playoffs,
04:22do they look like a team that could actually make a push for a World Series
04:27in the playoffs.
04:28And I feel like they're right there teetering on the brink right now based on a
04:32couple of different things as to whether, okay, all right, making the playoffs,
04:36making the wild card is one thing,
04:38but can we get genuinely excited about their ability to pull this off?
04:43And I think, like, starting pitching is obviously the biggest and most imminent
04:47concern and the thing that they've given us the most, I guess,
04:52just shots to the ribs or guts when you feel like, okay, boy,
04:56they're really coming along.
04:58Okay, yeah, look at how they've been, how good they've been since we cherry-pick
05:02a date or whatever.
05:03And then Emai comes in and doesn't make it out of the first inning.
05:06Or doesn't go more than two innings.
05:08Like, that's what we'll get to see in the second game of this upcoming series
05:12is just how, wait, is Emai first up or second?
05:15Oh, it's Emai first, right?
05:16No, he's tomorrow.
05:17Burroughs is tonight.
05:18Oh, it's Burroughs tonight and then Emai.
05:19That's right.
05:20Yeah.
05:21And then Burroughs also.
05:23As Javier returns to the bullpen, looked good in the bullpen,
05:27at some point he's going to be an option to move into the starting lineup
05:30if you don't feel great about these other guys.
05:33Yeah, I'm curious how hot the seats are because I'll be honest with you,
05:35I thought Javier was going to go right back into the rotation upon his return.
05:39I'm curious how hot for a few of those guys.
05:43I think as a GM, you know, you could be stubborn.
05:46I don't know if Dana Brown would want to admit fault with Mike Burroughs
05:49or even Emai, but at the same time he also just sent down Joey Loprofito
05:53over the weekend, which was one of his acquisitions over the offseason.
05:57So I am curious at what point does Javier actually work, if ever,
06:01does he work his way into the rotation?
06:02I mean, the timing of it right now, based on just him coming back with a week
06:08before the All-Star break, you know, they cited his workload
06:12and his rehab assignments and everything, but he's going to come in,
06:14he's in the traditional bullpen role, they're not going to piggyback him
06:17or anything.
06:19I wonder if the transition after the All-Star break is at the very least, yeah,
06:23you're going to see him a little bit more of either a piggyback
06:25or a long relief type of mode, and they transition him that way.
06:28But, I mean, that's back in 22 when that was his best season.
06:32That was the route they took then, was working him into a full-time
06:36starting role, and even though it's because of injury this time around,
06:41you kind of get that benefit of, okay, yeah, we don't have to,
06:44we can maybe just gradually ramp him up, and then in September and October
06:49when it really, really matters, then it might be as long as until then
06:53before they really make him a full-time starter,
06:55depending on what else is going on with the other starters.
06:57Yeah, because I'm also curious how long you can keep that stretched-out arm
07:01for Javier.
07:02Like, if he's in the bullpen for just, say, another month,
07:04do they then have to stretch him out again where he was pitching an inning
07:08or two, and now you want him to try to go five or six?
07:10I'm curious, like, how long that lasts before you have to build the guy back up.
07:13This is the Astros pitching staff.
07:15You know, even in asking that question, you've aired already, which is,
07:19like, okay, like, at some point I feel like adversity,
07:22more so than either because of an injury or because of a horrible performance
07:28by Mike Burroughs or somebody that that kind of, that their decision,
07:35their hand is forced just by circumstances.
07:38But so to kind of, to have a strategy for exactly how you're going to do it
07:42feels like you're, like, like we'd have to pretend that there's a stability there
07:47that there isn't.
07:48That's a good point.
07:48On the text line, someone said it's hard to be all in on a team
07:51that's not even over 500.
07:53Yeah.
07:53That's the part where you laid out the numbers.
07:55Best team in the AL last 41 games, which is a quarter of a season.
07:58That's a big sample size.
08:00But then still, like, they're in the worst division in baseball,
08:02and they're still in third place in the worst division of baseball.
08:05It is hard.
08:06I think if you're outside Houston or even if you just looked at the standings
08:10and be like, well, let's everyone talk about the Astros.
08:12They're in third place in a terrible division.
08:13It still feels weird to try to wrap your head around, like, hey,
08:16this is a really good team when you see they're in the middle
08:19of a terrible division.
08:20They're doing it, and they feasted on some bad teams
08:23and some mediocre teams in there on that streak of series that they'd won,
08:28series in a row that they'd won.
08:30That's a part of it where if you look at it and say, hey,
08:34over the course of the last, you know, month and a half or so,
08:38they've been the best team in the AL, then all right.
08:41Then if that keeps up, they're not going to – if they could keep that up
08:45in a bad AL, then, yeah, it's not going to be a 500 baseball team
08:51by the end of the year.
08:51I don't think – if they end up as a 500 baseball team at the end of the season
08:55right now and they're just one game in the – you know,
08:58they're the last team in the wild card, yeah, I'm not going to feel awesome.
09:02If they continue doing what they're doing, then they should have a chance
09:05to either win the division or be a more formidable-looking wild card team.
09:10Yeah, that's also true.
09:11On the text line, someone said, hey, I feel good that they won a shootout
09:13on Saturday and then won a pitcher's duel yesterday.
09:16That's fair.
09:17They won different styles against a good team.
09:20And that's where – yeah, and the Rays are really smart at the plate
09:24and they don't chase a whole lot, and Lambert had them chasing a whole bunch.
09:27That was a really good performance by Lambert.
09:30Yeah, it sure was.
09:31Another texter said, I'm with you on the Astros.
09:34They just have too many holes to make me a believer they're too feast or famine.
09:38I think that this is what – is I was trying to figure out, okay,
09:42what would get people the most buy-in and what would make this team look like
09:45a substantially different team in the second half of the season.
09:48Yeah.
09:48If you told me that nothing changed, including that every now and then
09:51EMI is going to go out and give you two-thirds of an inning,
09:55if Paredes and Walker just go on a tear in the second half of the season,
10:01then that alone would be enough for me to feel like, okay, yeah,
10:04you get into a series here in the playoffs, anything can happen.
10:09Any of these – you're going to have a couple of whiffs from starting pitchers
10:15at various points, but as long as these guys are hitting the way that they can,
10:18if that were to happen, if Paredes and Walker were really looking at their best
10:22and Jordan keeps doing what he's been doing, that's what would give me
10:27the biggest shot of confidence going into any given series.
10:30So stabilizing the starting rotation, get some more help outside of Jordan,
10:37and then that might lead to the third point of bringing an outfielder
10:42with something that could help bolster this lineup as well.
10:45Because Dana Brown's just been awesome at trading for outfielders.
10:49Yeah, right.
10:50Like he's due, right?
10:51If that's your stroke of confidence that you need.
10:55You got rid of Sanchez for a low perfido,
10:57and then now you've gotten rid of low perfido in the short term.
11:01That if they pull something off at the deadline, I'll be duly impressed if I see it.
11:08Well, speaking of the deadline, a few texts came in about – someone said,
11:11I saw a report the Astros are going to be on Sonny Gray, be in on Sonny Gray or Tariq
11:16Skubal.
11:17Another person said, I think they trade blue ball for McCarthy or Moniak,
11:20a couple of outfielders in the NL.
11:23Blue ball, by the way, is pitching really well.
11:24I guess this is when you sell him at like his highest, but honestly,
11:28I'd be a little sad to see him go at this point.
11:30Yeah.
11:30But the other part, the Sonny Gray and Skubal, I look – some people might not like me saying this
11:36because he's on these airwaves a lot.
11:37He goes on to Area 45 a bunch.
11:40The report came from Bob Nightingale.
11:41Well, I'd take anything Bob Nightingale reports with a huge grain of salt.
11:46So when he says that the Astros are going to try to get Sonny Gray or Skubal,
11:49I don't buy into it whatsoever.
11:51I don't think they have the assets to acquire those guys.
11:56Sonny Gray has the second-best ERA in the AL right now.
11:59Yeah, I imagine it's going to take a pretty good package,
12:01and the Astros have one of the worst farm systems.
12:03Right.
12:04Yeah, and that goes against the grain of everything that they did in the offseason
12:09where they tried to do it on the cheap, and they brought in –
12:14and even the EMI thing, we're in a precarious situation with EMI
12:18where what we're really hoping for is that EMI pitches so in half of the season
12:23that there's not a chance in hell that he's going to be here next year
12:27because he'll exercise that option and get a big contract somewhere else.
12:31That I just – I don't know if – I don't think they have the assets
12:35that they're willing to part with and that it also just doesn't –
12:40it kind of flies in the face with the way that Dana Brown's been operating as of late.
12:44Yeah, yeah, I don't know if they'd be willing to take –
12:47Sonny Gray has a pretty sizable contract too, and Skubal, of course,
12:50you're going to have to pay the guy.
12:51That's why Detroit might trade him because they don't want to pay him.
12:54The quote from Bob Nightingale was that the Houston Astros
12:59is badly needing an outfielder, showing strong interest in Mickey Moniak
13:03and Jake McCarthy of the Colorado Rockies.
13:05They also plan to be in the Tariq Skubal and Sonny Gray sweepstakes.
13:09So I would – that would be a bold move.
13:13It would be.
13:13And with that wording, okay, I get it.
13:15They plan to be in the sweepstakes.
13:17I think they'll get outbid by a number of teams for either of those guys.
13:20It feels like back when the Astros were trying to make it look like they were trying to be aggressive
13:25back in like 2014, 2000 – and even going into 2015 where they'd put in a bid on one of
13:32these free agents
13:33that would be – they'd be like $20 million per year short.
13:37But they were trying.
13:38They were trying.
13:39Yeah.
13:40That's like a friend of mine, the biggest friend in our friend group,
13:42like the strongest guy or the tallest guy.
13:45Whenever, like, a scuffle would break out, his line would always be like,
13:49man, if one more punch was thrown, I was about to jump in.
13:52And that was always the, like, he didn't want to fight at all.
13:55He was just trying to cover himself.
13:57He was just waiting.
13:57His hands are registered weapons.
13:58He has to be careful and selective when he jumps in.
14:02One step further.
14:03I was there.
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