- 2 days ago
Russia is racing toward 2035 — but the future waiting for it is harsher than anyone admits.
👉 What World Leaders NEED to Know about Russia: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PL6d9EIByxz1AdkmIOYUlrDd0rmByq5zSN
What will Russia look like in 2035? In this video, Elvira Bary unpacks the powerful forces shaping Russia’s next decade — from demographic collapse and brain drain to economic decline, global distrust, and China’s shifting expectations. Instead of predicting the future, she maps the real constraints that will define it, and the competing dreams of elites, ordinary citizens, reformers, and foreign powers. If you want to understand the harsh future Russia is drifting toward — and why even Putin can’t stop it — this is the video to watch.
Video Chapters:
00:00 Russia 2035: The Harsh Future Even Putin Can't Stop
02:34 What a Future is Made Of
11:32 The Dream of the Imperialists
14:36 The Dream of the Survivors
18:27 The Dream of the Reformers
21:26 The World Without Trust
25:39 The Chinese Lens
JOIN ME ON THE JOURNEY
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👉https://www.facebook.com/baryelvira/
👉https://www.instagr
👉 What World Leaders NEED to Know about Russia: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PL6d9EIByxz1AdkmIOYUlrDd0rmByq5zSN
What will Russia look like in 2035? In this video, Elvira Bary unpacks the powerful forces shaping Russia’s next decade — from demographic collapse and brain drain to economic decline, global distrust, and China’s shifting expectations. Instead of predicting the future, she maps the real constraints that will define it, and the competing dreams of elites, ordinary citizens, reformers, and foreign powers. If you want to understand the harsh future Russia is drifting toward — and why even Putin can’t stop it — this is the video to watch.
Video Chapters:
00:00 Russia 2035: The Harsh Future Even Putin Can't Stop
02:34 What a Future is Made Of
11:32 The Dream of the Imperialists
14:36 The Dream of the Survivors
18:27 The Dream of the Reformers
21:26 The World Without Trust
25:39 The Chinese Lens
JOIN ME ON THE JOURNEY
👉 Sign-up for news about the New Book here: https://elvirabary.com/elvira-barys-newsletter/
👉https://www.facebook.com/baryelvira/
👉https://www.instagr
Category
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LearningTranscript
00:00There's a question that keeps circling through every conversation about Russia now, whispered
00:07in policy meetings, argued about on TV panels, and asked quietly by ordinary people who no
00:14longer recognize their own country, what awaits Russia in the decade ahead.
00:21Not tomorrow, not next week, but in 2035, when the forces already reshaping the country
00:31today finally reveal what they have been building.
00:36Whether the world likes it or not, Russia is too big, too close, and too entangled to
00:44ignore.
00:45However, it borders NATO, China, Central Asia, the Arctic, Eastern Europe, and every one
00:52of those borders carries its own fear, memory, and prediction.
00:58The question is not whether Russia will matter in 2035.
01:03The question is what version of Russia will emerge.
01:08I am Elveria Barry.
01:09Anyway, a writer born in the Soviet Union, and today I want to do something different.
01:15Not guess the future.
01:17Predictions are cheap, but map the deep structural forces that will define it.
01:24The pressures that no election, no propaganda, and no decree from the Kremlin can stop.
01:31Here's our roadmap for tonight.
01:33What a future is made of.
01:36The raw materials shaping Russia's tomorrow.
01:39The dream of the imperialists.
01:41The Russia of power, fear, and eternal mobilization.
01:46The dream of the survivors.
01:48The Russia that just wants life to return to normal.
01:52The dream of the reformers.
01:54Those who imagine a country built on law, not fear.
01:58The world without trust.
02:00Why Russia's neighbors no longer plan for partnership, only containment.
02:06The Chinese lands.
02:08How Beijing, Russia's most important partner, actually sees its future.
02:14If independent analysis matters to you, analysis without fear and without permission, you can
02:20support this work by liking, subscribing, sharing, or joining my think tank.
02:25Support through Paypal or Superfinks genuinely keeps this channel alive.
02:32Alright, let's begin.
02:35What a future is made of.
02:39A country's future is never just a dream.
02:42It is always a collision between what people want and what is actually possible with the resources they have.
02:53Russia's potential futures in 2035 are determined not by wishful thinking, but by a handful of hard constraints.
03:02People, money, skills, economics, and the web of international relationships that either sustain a state or leave it isolated.
03:14The first and most important factor is demography.
03:17A state is not its territory.
03:20A state is its people.
03:22And here Russia faces a crisis that is both obvious and underestimated.
03:29Official demographic data is increasingly hidden.
03:33Demographers reconstruct the picture from indirect signs, accidental leaks, and the occasional desperate proposals by regional officials who tried to
03:45impress the Kremlin by promising new programs to boost birth rates.
03:49The reality is that the situation is worse than the published numbers suggest.
03:55Russia faces a shrinking and rapidly aging population.
04:00Birth rates briefly rose during the years of the maternity capital program, but that wave has long passed, and the
04:10trend is now sharply downward.
04:13The rich, those with Western documents, left early.
04:17Those without documents but with money resettled in the UAE and Cyprus.
04:24Dubai is now jokingly called Dubaisk because so many wealthy Russians live there.
04:30The middle class has frozen.
04:33In a time of instability, raising small children feels like a luxury few can risk.
04:39The poor, who historically had higher birth rates, are now the ones bearing the cost of war.
04:47The dead and the disabled come from their ranks.
04:51The economic situation is deteriorating, and that has a direct effect on family planning.
04:58As a result, Russia's typical citizen in 2035 will likely be a woman over 50 with declining health and limited
05:10income.
05:11Many will be alone.
05:13Children grow up and live.
05:15Husbands die.
05:16Or there was never a husband to begin with.
05:20Russia, despite its traditional rhetoric, still has one of the highest divorce rates in the world.
05:28Meanwhile, the healthcare system is stretched thin.
05:33Funding is declining, trust in medicine is low, and good specialists are hard to find.
05:40Big cities with welfare populations still manage, but smaller towns have almost no access to qualified help for complex conditions.
05:50Medical deserts expand every year, and the country is becoming a place where survival depends on geography and luck.
06:00The next constraint is the economy.
06:03Russia still depends on oil and gas revenues for roughly 60% of its budget.
06:10Yet the world's energy markets are changing.
06:13Prices are trending downward.
06:16China, Russia's main buyer, is slowing down because of its own demographic troubles.
06:22Russian oil reserves are not infinite, and new deposits cannot be developed without Western equipment.
06:30New competitors are appearing, including Guyana, and Venezuelan oil may soon return to the market.
06:37These are long-term pressures that will not reverse.
06:42Education and human capital add another layer of limitation.
06:47A country can compete only if it has people with the necessary skills, but those skills are living.
06:55Immigration represents a small percentage of the total population, yet the type of the people who live matters more than
07:04the number.
07:05Those who can succeed abroad are usually educated, resourceful, multilingual, and financially prepared.
07:13Not long ago, I attended a business meeting of Russian immigrants in Orange County.
07:19Who showed up?
07:21Software engineers, financiers, construction entrepreneurs, telecom specialists, university lecturers, and luxury jewelry designers.
07:32These are the people Russia lost.
07:35And America gained?
07:37Of course, people of all kinds live, including many who hope for luck more than planning, but even that requires
07:45some resources.
07:47Inside Russia, the education system is in disarray.
07:51Humanities are increasingly replaced by slogans, dogma, and moralizing, much like in the late Soviet period.
07:59Technical fields suffer because the older generation is retiring and the younger one was never properly trained.
08:08For years, the government abandoned the idea of developing indigenous technologies.
08:14It was easier to trade oil for microchips and airplanes.
08:19Those who do have expertise face constant temptation to move to a freer, more prosperous environment.
08:27Russia still has outstanding specialists, but the trend points downward.
08:34Political isolation accelerates technological decline.
08:38The financial picture is equally grim.
08:41The country runs a high-budget deficit while military and security expenses continue to rise.
08:47It cannot borrow on international markets.
08:50Taxes are increasing against a shrinking economy.
08:55Inflation eats into savings.
08:58There is no capital for long-term investment.
09:01Ten years from now, Russia will face the consequences of what it failed to invest in today.
09:07Projects that should be funded now will not exist in 2035.
09:13Infrastructure that should be repaired today will simply collapse.
09:18Another limitation is foreign relations.
09:22Russia cannot rely on help from those who could genuinely assist.
09:26The West will not support it.
09:29China will not finance Russian modernization.
09:33It pursues its own interests.
09:36No realistic alternatives remain.
09:39Could Russia rely solely on internal resources as it did during earlier bursts of development?
09:46Historically, rapid advances happened when the central government severely exploited its population
09:53and built megaprojects on the bones of millions.
09:57But whom can Russia exploit today?
10:00Are there really women on limited pensions?
10:04Even exploitation requires money because someone has to guard the people being exploited.
10:10Those funds always came from foreign trade.
10:14In the late Middle Ages, Russia exported wax and furs.
10:19Under Peter the Great, it supplied material for European shipbuilding.
10:23Later came grain during Europe's rapid urbanization.
10:28Under Stalin, everything was exported to the West, from metals to icons.
10:35In the second half of the 20th century, the USSR survived because Western Europe, especially
10:41West Germany, paid for Russian gas and oil.
10:45The question for 2035 becomes unavoidable.
10:49With shrinking population, declining education, collapsing healthcare, deteriorating infrastructure,
10:57isolation and a weakening energy market, what exactly will Russia trade with the world?
11:04The answer to that question will determine which futures remain possible and which are already closed.
11:12Most people inside and outside Russia picture the future very differently.
11:18Most understand that the road ahead is Russia, yet their visions of how to confront these challenges vary widely.
11:27Now it's time to look at what is actually on the table.
11:32The dream of the imperialists
11:37Every country has a group that dreams not of stability, but of power.
11:42In Russia, this group includes the political elite, the security services, the war economy and loyalist patriots who build their
11:51identity around strength.
11:53Their worldview is shaped by fear of collapse, fear of the West and fear of internal betrayal.
12:02They are convinced that only a hard, militarized state can prevent chaos.
12:09At the core of their belief lies a simple conviction.
12:12The West wants to destroy Russia and enslave its people.
12:16The irony that the only force destroying and enslaving Russians today is their own government does not occur to them.
12:26In their imagined future, the West will always try to undermine Russia,
12:32and the country's only chance of survival is to project power and force the world to accept the demands of
12:39the national leader.
12:40Sometimes I take grim pleasure in reading their social media posts.
12:46I understand why top officials and businessmen cling to this vision.
12:51Their wealth and safety depend on a powerful, militarized Russia.
12:57But beyond them, there are many patriots whose lives have worsened dramatically since the war began.
13:05They complain about taxes, inflation, poor medical care, and failing infrastructure,
13:12yet never connect these problems to the war or the state that demands constant sacrifice.
13:19They see their suffering as a sacred contribution to the motherland.
13:25Militarization is at the heart of this future.
13:28The army, intelligence agencies, and police become the real centers of power.
13:35Institutions matter less than personal loyalty.
13:39National identity revolves around the idea of a permanent external threat.
13:44For those already in power, the ideal system resembles a modernized feudal network,
13:51with clans forming around ministries, state corporations, and the war industry.
13:57Those outside power imagine something softer and nostalgic.
14:02A romanticized version of the late Soviet Union before oil prices collapsed.
14:07In that fantasy, healthcare and education are free.
14:12People attend patriotic parades, sing songs, and feel unity and pride.
14:17Russia stands as the older sister, guiding the supposedly less developed nations in its orbit.
14:26This dream is emotionally powerful, rooted in fear and nostalgia,
14:31but completely detached from the country's real trajectory.
14:37The dream of the survivors Most Russians do not dream of an empire.
14:45Their hopes are small and practical.
14:47They want steady work, predictable prices, safe streets, decent schools,
14:53and medical care that does not depend on luck.
14:56They want a life where the state leaves them alone.
14:59It is the most normal dream, and under current conditions, the hardest to achieve.
15:06For ordinary people, the ideal future is a return to normal life.
15:12In the collective memory, pre-COVID Russia was a good place to live.
15:16That view is not entirely accurate because during those years, the government was quietly dismantling
15:24civic rights and democratic institutions.
15:27But if someone did not follow politics, and in Russia politics is considered a dirty, almost taboo subject,
15:36they lived in a world where planning felt possible, where dreams made sense, and where life seemed to improve slowly.
15:46The collapse began in 2020 with pandemic restrictions.
15:50After that, normal life started to fall apart.
15:54One of the biggest markers of new reality was fear.
16:00Fear of saying the wrong thing.
16:03Fear that a relative might get into trouble.
16:06Fear of drawing attention to yourself.
16:09Business owners remember the moment when sanctions cut off international payments.
16:16Panics spread instantly because so much of the Russian economy depends on imports.
16:22Yes, the economy eventually adapted for grey imports and deeper dependence on China,
16:29but everything became dramatically more expensive.
16:34Every product now includes hidden costs.
16:37The price of circumventing sanctions and the invisible taxes of a war.
16:43That society pays collectively.
16:46The dreams of the survivors are modest.
16:49They want the war to end and life to return to how it used to be.
16:54But this group carefully avoids any conversation about how such a future could be achieved.
17:02Political literacy is low.
17:04The link between human rights and personal safety doesn't exist in their worldview.
17:12Politics feels dangerous and economics feels boring and incomprehensible.
17:18So, no energy is invested there.
17:21Trust in the opposition is non-existent.
17:24They see opposition figures as people who want power for themselves
17:28because a normal person would never crawl into this mess.
17:33They have no complaints about Putin.
17:36Ask them whom they support and they will confidently say Putin made the country strong.
17:43They repeat cliches picked up passively over the years, even if they never watch state TV.
17:49These are the only messages that ever reached them.
17:54From time to time, social media surfaces heartbreaking stories.
17:59Salaries delayed.
18:00Promised benefits withheld.
18:02Bridges collapsing.
18:04Houses left unrepaired.
18:05And then comes the ritual.
18:08A group of residents stands in front of a camera and records a collective plea to Putin asking him to
18:16intervene.
18:17It is painful to watch.
18:19It is a direct descendant of the 17th century tradition of kneeling before the Tsar with a humble petition.
18:27The dream of the reformers.
18:33Reform-minded Russians want something far more difficult than stability or strength.
18:39They want a different country.
18:41Their perspectives vary, but they share one conviction.
18:45Russia cannot survive another century unless it changes itself.
18:49In their imagined future, the state is no longer built on fear.
18:54Power is limited by real laws.
18:57Courts function.
18:58Elections matter.
19:00Regions govern themselves instead of waiting for permission from Moscow.
19:05The security services follow rules rather than standing above them.
19:10History is studied rather than turned into a weapon.
19:14Russia remains large and complicated, but it becomes governable because its leaders answer to the public.
19:22But their dream faces enormous obstacles.
19:26Removing the current regime is possible only through military defeat or economic collapse.
19:33As long as the government can pay the army and security forces, unarmed citizens cannot change the system.
19:41Yet, wishing for defeat or collapse means losing the support of the survivors, those who simply want stability and a
19:50return to pre-war life.
19:51There is also a deep cultural barrier.
19:54For generations, Russians were taught to identify themselves with the state.
20:01Criticism of government actions is perceived as a personal attack.
20:06This is the same psychological trap seen in closed sects where an individual's identity is dissolved into the group.
20:15The Soviet system deliberately built this mindset in 1917 and it still shapes the national psyche today.
20:24And yes, I explore exactly how this collective identity was constructed in my Russian treasures novels.
20:33Reviews are glowing.
20:34So, if you love Russian history and literature, those stories will speak to you.
20:40Links are in the description.
20:43Eskipping this group thinking is extremely difficult.
20:46When your identity is tied not to yourself or your family but to your country,
20:52condemning the state feels like condemning yourself.
20:55For many, that is unbearable.
20:58The only antidotes are art and education.
21:01But where can they come from if censorship now punishes people even for searching extremist information online?
21:09And extremist information can be anything at all.
21:14Whatever the investigator or judge decides.
21:17This is the weight the reformers carry.
21:20Their dream is noble.
21:22But the country is not yet ready to accept it.
21:26The world without trust.
21:30If Russians imagine their own future through the lenses of power, survival, or reform,
21:35the outside world sees Russia very differently.
21:39Its neighbors, Europe, the United States, and a growing number of countries in the global south and Asia,
21:47approach Russia as a long-term security problem.
21:50For them, 2035 is about managing the risks that flow from a large, unstable, nuclear-armed state.
21:59In the West, trust in Russia has collapsed.
22:03This is not a passing emotion.
22:06It is now a structural fact of international politics.
22:10Governments no longer believe that treaties, commercial partnerships, or diplomatic assurances
22:16can restrain Moscow's behavior.
22:19They see a country that treats agreements as tactical poses, not binding commitments.
22:26Even if the political system in Russia changes, the trauma of the past decades will remain.
22:31Europe will not return to the model of cheap energy and deep economic ties.
22:38The United States will not treat Russia as a strategic partner.
22:43NATO will not shrink again.
22:45For Western policymakers, the question is not how to cooperate with Russia,
22:51but how to contain it at the lowest possible cost.
22:55The countries closest to Russia feel this distrust even more sharply.
23:01Finland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland all view 2035 through a defensive lens.
23:09They expect Russia to remain unpredictable and militarized.
23:13They invest in infrastructure, civil defense, energy independence, and alliances that can withstand sudden shocks.
23:22They did not expect Russia to reform.
23:25They expect it to break, lash out, or move further south.
23:30In the Caucasus and Central Asia, Russia is increasingly seen as a fading power,
23:35whose behavior is dangerous because it is insecure.
23:38These regions are quietly reorienting themselves toward Turkey, China, and local interests.
23:47They no longer believe Russia can offer stability or opportunity.
23:51Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan are already trying to reduce their economic and cultural dependence on Moscow.
23:58Armenia has shifted its security focus toward the West.
24:03Georgia and Moldova treat Russia as a source of permanent vulnerability.
24:09None of them plan their future around Russian leadership.
24:13In the global South, opinions are more mixed, but still pragmatic.
24:20Countries such as India, Brazil, and South Africa see Russia less as a partner and more as a geopolitical instrument.
24:28They appreciate the opportunity to buy cheap energy and gain diplomatic leverage,
24:34but they do not view Russia as a future engine of growth or technological innovation.
24:39They expect a weakened, isolated Russia that remains influential only in areas where it can cause trouble.
24:48The world's collective dream of 2035 is not about Russia's strength, but about minimizing the global impact of its decline.
24:59This external viewpoint is important because it defines the environment in which Russia will operate.
25:07A country cannot shape its future long.
25:10It needs partners, markets, and degree of legitimacy.
25:16Russia has lost most of that, and the rest is slipping.
25:20The international system around it is becoming more fortified, more skeptical, and more immune to manipulation.
25:27By 2035, Russia may discover that even if it wants to change, the world no longer gives it the benefit
25:38of the doubt.
25:39The Chinese lens
25:43Of all external perspective on Russia's future, China is the most influential and the most revealing.
25:51It views Russia as a resource, a buffer, and a partner of convenience.
25:58For Beijing, the ideal Russia in 2035 is neither strong nor collapsing.
26:04It is stable enough to resist the West, but dependent enough to remain predictable.
26:10The official Chinese narrative is polite.
26:13Governments in Beijing speak of strategic partnership, cooperation, and mutual support.
26:19This language is carefully chosen.
26:22China values Russia as a counterweight to American influence and as a supplier of energy at discounted prices.
26:30Russian oil and gas help China diversify its energy security.
26:35Russian diplomatic alignment gives Beijing more room to maneuver on the world stage.
26:41In formal speeches, China calls this relationship win-win.
26:46Outside the official script, however, Chinese analysts and business leaders are more direct.
26:54They see Russia's economy as fragile, its population as shrinking, and its technology as outdated.
27:02Some openly state that China must be careful not to become entangled in Russia's problems.
27:09Others express quite satisfaction that Western pressure has pushed Russia into China's orbit.
27:16For them, Russia is convenient, but not essential.
27:22China's dream of Russia in 2035 is simple.
27:26A cooperative, dependent neighbor that keeps the West occupied, provides cheap energy, and avoids domestic collapse.
27:35It is a future in which Russia matters, but only on China's terms.
27:40When we put all these pieces together, the picture becomes clearer.
27:46None of these visions exist in isolation.
27:50Russia's real trajectory will be a mixture of them, tilted by pressure from the world and by choices that millions
27:59of people make every day.
28:00The question is, which force will become dominant as the country moves toward 2035?
28:08Will fear shape the future, or will fatigue force change?
28:14Will the world's distrust limit Russia's options, or will internal collapse push it into something new?
28:21And what role will ordinary citizens play if they continue to lose faith in the system that governs them?
28:30But I want to hear from you.
28:31Which version of Russia's future feels most likely where you sit?
28:36Do you think the country is already drifting toward one of these paths?
28:41Or are they closing one by one?
28:44Do you think the world you are seeing just as this analysis helps illuminate the world I came from?
28:52If this deep dive gave you clarity, if it helps you see past the headlines to the forces that actually
29:01shape nations, please like the video, share it with someone curious, and subscribe.
29:08It is the simplest way to keep this channel independent.
29:12And if you'd like to follow the hidden threads, early chapters, and research shaping my upcoming novel, The Snow Queen's
29:20Spring,
29:20you can join my Facebook, Instagram, or newsletter using the links below.
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29:34Every gesture truly keeps this project alive.
29:39Thank you for watching, and thank you for thinking with me.
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