What Happens to Russia the Day After the War in Ukraine Ends?

Elvira Bary

The war may end, but Russia’s real crisis is just beginning. What happens the day after?  👉 What World Leaders NEED to Know about Russia: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PL6d9EIByxz1AdkmIOYUlrDd0rmByq5zSN  Even if the war in Ukraine ended tomorrow, Russia wouldn’t return to peace and stability. In this video, Elvira Bary dives into what happens inside Russia the day after the war ends. From political decay and economic collapse to internal power struggles and deep social fractures, Russia’s real challenges are only beginning. If you want to understand the dangerous road ahead—and why it matters for all of us—watch this deep analysis of Russia’s uncertain future.  Video Chapters:   00:00 What Happens to Russia the Day After the War in Ukraine Ends? 00:55 Power 06:02 Economy and Relations with the World 09:47 Society 15:38 Healing  👉 JOIN ME ON THE JOURNEY Sign-up for news about the New Book here:  https://elvirabary.com/elvira-barys-newsletter/  MY HISTORICAL FICTION BOOK SERIES ➡️ Russian Treasures (a historical novel about the Bolshevik Revolution and Russian Civil War) https://amzn.to/43PutaM ➡️ The White Ghosts&#039; Empire (a historical novel about the Russian refugees who d

Transcript

00:00Imagine waking up tomorrow to breaking news. The war in Ukraine is finally over.

00:08Celebrations erupt worldwide, but in Russia it feels different. Because even if the guns fall

00:15silent, Russia's crisis is far from finished. The war was never the root problem, it was just the

00:22symptom of something deeper. My name is Elvira Barry. I was born in the Soviet Union and for

00:28the past two decades I've closely studied Russia's political and social fabric. Today I'll take you

00:34beyond the headlines to show you what will happen in Russia the day after the fighting stops. And why

00:42understanding this matters more than ever. Because the choices made inside Russia in the coming years

00:49won't just shape Russia's future, they'll shape ours too. And the world will live for our children.

01:01Russia is the last empire still standing in Europe. It simply led to collapse. Throughout the 20th

01:09century, Europe transformed in two ways. First, through rapid urbanization. Then, by dismantling empires.

01:19Empires no longer help societies grow, they hold them back. By collapse, I don't necessarily mean losing

01:26territory. I mean the deeper breakdown of imperial power structures built on violence and repression.

01:34Every European empire has crumbled. Even the Soviet Union fell apart. But then, in the 21st century,

01:42it tried to reassemble itself. Why? Because while technology moves fast, human lifespans are long. The same

01:51people cling to power for decades. Without real external pressure, historical change slows to a crawl.

01:59In early times, weak governments were swept away by revolutionaries or foreign enemies. But today,

02:07Russia has too few young people for revolution and its neighbors have no appetite for war. When this war

02:15ends, Russia will likely drift toward becoming something like an orthodox version of Iran. The

02:22elite have every incentive to keep the population uneducated and isolated. As global demand for raw

02:29resources declines, a long-term trend, the state will increasingly squeeze its taxpayers. To stop people

02:37from fleeing, it must convince them the outside world is terrifying and dangerous. This makes nationalism

02:45inevitable. The state will indoctrinate children through schools. I explain this fully in another

02:52video, while silencing alternative voices and cutting off outside information. There will be repression,

02:59but not mass terror. Just enough fear to maintain control coupled with constant demands for ritual submission.

03:08Certain behaviors will become symbols of loyalty. In Iran, it's strict compliance with religious

03:14dress codes. In Russia, it will be glorification of World War II and absolute obedience to official

03:20narratives about Ukraine. Challenge it and you become a target. Meanwhile, the FSB and other power

03:28structures will divide what's left of the country's wealth, terrorize their population and fuel paranoia

03:35about foreign spies. Privately, they'll send their children to Western schools, hire Western lawyers,

03:42and shop in Europe. That's the nature of this new aristocracy – deciding who is allowed and who is not.

03:50The leadership will grow older and more brittle. They'll try passing their power and wealth to their

03:56children, but the children aren't their fathers. They grew up pampered, not hardened by political battles.

04:04Many were raised by tyrannical parents who broke their will early. And some simply have different

04:11personalities. A father may be a ruthless commander, but his son might be a dreamy pathfinder.

04:19If you're curious about these personality types, check out the Sphinx method on my website. You might

04:26discover something surprising about yourself. Parades will continue. Chest-beating rhetoric won't stop,

04:32but real policing will devolve into absurdity. Jailing young women for rainbow earrings – something

04:39I've covered in another video, while actual threats go unnoticed. Russia's external enemies – they'll be

04:47defeated because they never showed up to fight. Putin claims he is battling NATO. Yet, according to

04:55Ukrainian estimates, Russia has already lost nearly a million soldiers killed or wounded. NATO's losses?

05:03None. Russia's ruling elite is old, mainly in their 70s, but modern medicine might keep them going for

05:10years. This jointocracy just wanted to preserve their power. The chances of meaningful reform – almost

05:18zero. Beneath the very top is a pervasive belief that collapse is inevitable. So, the rational choice is

05:27to steal as much as possible while there's still time. Then, move the loot abroad to places with stable

05:33property rights. In this environment, everyone watches each other, waiting to strike first. Each

05:40official has a file held by the FSB, constantly proving loyalty, ignoring law, honor, and logic,

05:49just to avoid becoming the next target. Only one type survives – shameless, opportunistic crooks,

05:57loyal only to power, that poisons every decision the country makes.

06:07This entire system of political control is possible because nearly all of Russia's wealth is concentrated

06:14in the hands of the ruling elite. The financial structure itself is designed for centralized control.

06:21Money is collected from individuals, businesses, and regions, funneled into Moscow, and then

06:28redistributed wherever the leadership decides – building bridges, funding wars, bribing warlords,

06:35or paying internet trolls to flood Western media with fake public opinion. As a result,

06:41everyone – from federal ministers to village school principals – depends entirely on the state.

06:48Anytime someone builds an independent career or earns income outside the government control,

06:54they inevitably start thinking too freely. That's why the state systematically crashes local initiative

07:01and eliminates independent wealth. In today's Russia, a career means attaching yourself to a state-controlled

07:09budget stream. And after the war, a state revenue stream – competition for those budget streams

07:16will turn even more vicious. But the regime cannot afford to loosen its grip. Independent business breeds

07:24independent thinking. And independent thinking creates political threats. That's the real fear behind

07:31every crackdown. Which means a prolonged economic stagnation is almost guaranteed. Much like what we have seen in Iran for

07:40decades.

07:41Foreign trade will remain a major problem. Russia's reputation in the West is broken and won't recover anytime soon.

07:49The stigma now touches every Russian citizen. We already see it in the struggles of Russian immigrants abroad,

07:57even those who oppose the war, facing visa issues, employment challenges, and growing social suspicion.

08:05As for China, Russia's supposed strategic partner, Beijing has seen Russia's military weakness up close.

08:13They view Russia as unstable and unreliable. Don't expect salvation from the East.

08:20Russia's network of dictator allies is also collapsing. Syria, Iran, Venezuela. What remains is resource trade,

08:28mostly with China, some with India, and scattered deals with Europe. That money flows straight into

08:35the military-industrial complex. But this is not real economic growth. In many struggling towns,

08:42new military factories offer decent wages. But if those factories close, mass anger would follow.

08:49The state simply cannot afford the unrest that would come with demilitarization. Meanwhile, Russia is

08:56falling hopelessly behind in industries that define the modern world – information technology, AI,

09:04and advanced research. It lacks skilled personnel, infrastructure, and most critically, access to

09:11global scientific exchange. Paranoia accelerates this decay. Security services arrest scientists for

09:19attending international conferences or even giving lectures over Zoom. Researchers stay silent or

09:25leave entirely. Russia bleeds talent with every passing month. As new military technologies evolve,

09:33much of Russia's Soviet-era arsenal will become useless scrap. And Russia has no path to catch up.

09:40It will keep falling further behind, technologically isolated and economically stagnant.

09:51Many have died. Many more are wounded. And even more live with deep trauma. The entire country is trapped in

09:59paralyzed stress with no clear future. At first, there was hope. Hope that Russia would restore Soviet borders,

10:07others feel powerful again, respected, admired. But now, a darker realization is sinking in.

10:15Something has gone terribly wrong. Even those in charge seem lost. Among the war's supporters,

10:23many still believe that if they just push a little harder, somehow everything will work out.

10:29Those who oppose the war either shut down emotionally or leave. And many have already left. For good.

10:37They take with them not only money and skills, but entire threads of Russia's fragile social fabric.

10:44When a great teacher leaves, hundreds of students lose more than a class. They lose mentorship,

10:51inspiration, potential. When a scientist leaves, they don't just lose their research. They lose an

10:59entire intellectual environment. When business leaders depart, they take technology, capital, and often

11:06entire teams. I have a friend who moved dozens of IT specialists to Portugal. They now pay taxes there.

11:13Their children grew up there. And most won't even think of returning. Even I have my example.

11:20I once ran the largest creative writing school in the Russian-speaking world. I taught tens of thousands

11:26to write with humor and emotional power. But I had to shut it down. Sanctions made it impossible for

11:34people inside Russia to pay me. And I am far from along. By the way, if you want to see

11:41what kind of

11:41stories we were creating, check out my channel Elvira Bari Forbidden Books. You will see exactly the kind

11:48of creative talent Russia is losing. There are no exact figures, but estimates suggest that since the war

11:55began, 350 to 400 thousand people have left Moscow. That's the size of a small European city. They sold

12:05rent their apartments. And who moved in? Provincial bureaucrats? Retired security officers?

12:12Pensioners from the power ministries. The same pattern plays out in St. Petersburg and other major cities.

12:20Meanwhile, in Russia's poorest regions, it's the underprivileged who are sent to fight. But their

12:28families, suddenly enriched by payouts, move into these larger cities, buying up real estate and reshaping the

12:36social map. Long term, this internal migration will have enormous consequences. This is not new.

12:44It's similar to what happened under Stalin, when unreliable elements were purged from Soviet cities.

12:51I describe that process in details in my novel The Prince of the Soviets. You'll find the link in the

12:57description. Beyond Russia's borders, relations are breaking as well. Ukraine's had been severed painfully.

13:05Nearly one-third of Russian families have Ukrainian relatives. In the Soviet times, people were

13:12constantly relocated across republic borders. My own uncle ended up in Ukraine simply because his job

13:19sent him there. In some ways, it's a small mercy that he didn't live to see this war. Inside Russia,

13:27families are breaking too. Parents stop speaking to children. Siblings cut each other off. Friendships collapse.

13:35You realize someone you trust supports the war and something inside you breaks. You may say everyone

13:43has their opinion. But trust is gone. Because if they support invading neighbors and killing civilians,

13:51what can you ever expect from them? This fracture won't heal soon. In fact, it will likely deepen.

13:58And what happens to the patriotic movement after the war? Their purpose will vanish. Today, elderly women

14:06need socks for soldiers. Organized charity drives and feel needed. But when the need for socks disappears,

14:14what then? The couch warriors who cheered for victory will face bitter disappointment. There will be no

14:20Soviet version 2. So many sacrifices. For nothing. Even those who stayed silent will grumble. Life was

14:29better before 2022. Why did we get involved in this? There will be nostalgia, escapism, fantasy worlds

14:37where reality feels optional. Then, scapegoating. The state will blame the West. Some will blame

14:45themselves. Why didn't we protest? Why didn't we sacrifice more to stop it? But truthfully, there was

14:52never a real chance to protest. Unarmed civilians can't overthrow a heavily armed regime. Meanwhile,

14:59the demographic crisis will worsen. Birth rates have already fallen to levels not seen since 1942. Women

15:08don't want to have children in the country spiraling into chaos. Mass immigration from Central Asia will

15:15continue. While the share of elderly, unhealthy citizens grows, putting pressure on the state's

15:22budget. And finally, another dangerous consequence. Rising crime. The country is flooded with weapons

15:30brought home from the war. Many returning soldiers suffer from PTSD. It's a dangerous mix.

15:43If the West simply tries to defeat Russia, what it will get is terrorism. Terror is the weapon of the

15:50weak,

15:51of those who want to influence but can't. Who feel excluded, humiliated, powerless. That's exactly why

16:00Iran turned to sponsoring terrorism. And I don't just mean bombs. Terror can take many forms. Cyber

16:07attacks, kidnapping, sabotage, destruction designed to intimidate. And let's not forget, Russia has never

16:14been good at mass production. But it has always been surprisingly good at specialized,

16:21one of inventions. As technology shrinks, as drones get smaller and smaller, the last thing the world

16:28needs is a country capable of building beetle-sized drones that can't strike anywhere. That's why helping

16:35Russia find a better path is critical. The old man in power will die eventually. The real question is,

16:42who comes after them? There won't be real democracy in Russia anytime soon. Democracy needs traditions,

16:50institutions, grassroots organizations, and independent financial resources.

16:55These don't magically appear even if Putin's regime collapses tomorrow. The key is not to repeat the

17:02mistakes of the 1990s, the fantasy that freedom from dictatorship automatically brings democracy.

17:08We've seen that fail repeatedly across the post-Soviet space and in places like Iraq. Instead,

17:16we must deal with the reality we have. Study Russia's elite carefully. Who can we work with?

17:23People who might be able not to build a perfect democracy, but at least to secure a peace.

17:30The goal isn't perfection. The goal is stability. Identify people with clean enough hands,

17:37compatible values, and most importantly, the ability to make and honor agreements.

17:43Engagement doesn't mean recruitment. It means practical mutual deals. If you take power and don't abuse it,

17:52we will help you rebuild. These people must deliver real relief quickly. At its core,

17:59this conflict is about respect and dignity. Many Russians supported the war because they clung to

18:05the illusion that Russia once stood shoulder-to-shoulder with the United States as an equal global power.

18:12They believed that status was stolen, not lost through their own failures, but through foreign treachery and humiliation.

18:21Now they feel it's time to take back what was taken. The worst thing the West could do is humiliate

18:28them again.

18:29In the 1990s, Westerners flooded into Russia. Consultants, trainers, preachers, eager to teach Russians how to be

18:39proper Democrats, proper capitalists, proper Christians. As if they were eager students waiting for enlightenment.

18:47Even if someone is poor and backward, they still demand respect.

18:52If you arrive to lecture, not to listen, they'll smile, take your money, and trick you while you are dead.

19:00Trust me, Russians know how. You won't even realize you've been played. One of the West's greatest

19:06failures after the Soviet collapse was not investing serious time into understanding who they were dealing

19:13with. Leaders treated Russia like someone at a service window. Solve my problem. I don't care who you are.

19:21As long as Russia delivered cheap energy, nobody asked where the money went. That indifference helped

19:29build the dictatorship we face today. And it will cost far more to contain than it would have cost to

19:35manage intelligently in the 1990s. Today, we must do better. We must identify Russia's real social needs

19:45and meet them before the regime does. Offer people real, visible alternatives.

19:53Here's where it gets counterintuitive. The natural instinct is to cut Russia off completely. To build

20:00a moat filled with crocodiles and starve it of resources. Emotionally, it feels justified. But

20:07practically, it's dangerous. We've tried that before, after World War I with Germany. And what came of that?

20:15Nazis grew out of that exact hunger for respect. You don't love us? Fine. We'll love ourselves twice as

20:24hard. Our task is far more delicate. We need to reduce state resources, but increase opportunities

20:32for the people. Create alternatives that allow ordinary Russians to live, grow, and thrive without

20:39depending on the state. The regime survives by monopolizing contact with the outside world.

20:45We need to flip that logic. Support the regime. Lose access. Behave like a normal person.

20:53Gain opportunities. The simplest tool is culture. Build programs that help people share stories.

21:01Build relationships. Exchange ideas. Show them there is an alternative. We are not against you.

21:08We are ready to welcome you. You don't need an empire to feel respected. But most importantly,

21:15we need professionals to design a serious healing program. Russia carries enormous historical trauma.

21:23Its aggression is not the root cause. It's a symptom. I often play the role of a therapist explaining why

21:31Russia behaves as it does. And when people begin to understand the roots of their pain,

21:37they at least gain the chance to change. But real healing requires a scientific foundation.

21:44Collective trauma, like personal trauma, repeats itself unless treated. It's like a child raised in

21:51violence and abuse. Yes, they are responsible for their actions. But very few can heal themselves without

21:58help. They need safety, role models, opportunities, dignity. Without that,

22:04nothing will work. After the war, people will seek healing, one way or another. Many will turn to

22:10religion. But qualified clergy are scarce. Few psychologists know how to treat national identity

22:17trauma. Millions have spent years being trained to hate their neighbors. How do you treat hatred? Who will

22:26even try? And the regime will do everything possible to keep that hatred alive. Hatred is its fuel.

22:33This isn't just a job for governments. This is a task for researchers, NGOs, psychologists, educators,

22:42and thinkers, those capable of applying serious intellectual precision and long-term strategy. If this gave you a

22:50deep understanding of what may happen to Russia the day after the war ends, please help me keep making this

22:56video. Share it. Subscribe to this channel. Join my think tank or simply buy me a coffee. Every bit of

23:05support

23:05makes a difference. And most of all, thank you for watching, for staying curious, and for thinking critically.

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