- 5 weeks ago
Putin’s plan exposed: Is Russia doomed to repeat Belarus’ collapse into decay?
👉 What World Leaders NEED to Know about Russia: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PL6d9EIByxz1AdkmIOYUlrDd0rmByq5zSN
In this video, we explore the future of Russia and its parallels with Belarus under authoritarian rule. We discuss how Lukashenko's regime has led to economic stagnation, a shrinking population, and widespread disillusionment. Drawing comparisons between Belarus and Russia, we examine the role of elites, the suppression of culture, and the stifling of individual freedoms. Discover how authoritarianism, though seemingly stable, leads to the erosion of societal vitality and how these trends could affect Russia in the future.
Video Chapters:
00:00 Predicting the Future of Russia
01:11 Basic Facts About Belarus
03:02 Why Dictatorship Thrives in Belarus
05:10 How the Belarusian People Live
08:14 The Dictator
12:44 The Struggle for Belarusian Identity
16:48 The Danger of Education
19:15 The Police State
22:18 The Desperate Fight for Freedom
25:00 The Stolen Future
👉 JOIN ME ON THE JOURNEY Sign-up for news about the New Book here: https://elvirabary.com/elvira-barys-newsletter/
MY
👉 What World Leaders NEED to Know about Russia: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PL6d9EIByxz1AdkmIOYUlrDd0rmByq5zSN
In this video, we explore the future of Russia and its parallels with Belarus under authoritarian rule. We discuss how Lukashenko's regime has led to economic stagnation, a shrinking population, and widespread disillusionment. Drawing comparisons between Belarus and Russia, we examine the role of elites, the suppression of culture, and the stifling of individual freedoms. Discover how authoritarianism, though seemingly stable, leads to the erosion of societal vitality and how these trends could affect Russia in the future.
Video Chapters:
00:00 Predicting the Future of Russia
01:11 Basic Facts About Belarus
03:02 Why Dictatorship Thrives in Belarus
05:10 How the Belarusian People Live
08:14 The Dictator
12:44 The Struggle for Belarusian Identity
16:48 The Danger of Education
19:15 The Police State
22:18 The Desperate Fight for Freedom
25:00 The Stolen Future
👉 JOIN ME ON THE JOURNEY Sign-up for news about the New Book here: https://elvirabary.com/elvira-barys-newsletter/
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Category
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LearningTranscript
00:00Ever wondered what the future holds for Russia?
00:03It's actually quite easy to predict.
00:05Unless something catastrophic like an asteroid hitting Earth happens,
00:10Russia is likely to become a larger version of a small European country, Belarus.
00:15Currently, Belarus is acting as Russia's testing ground for new authoritarian tactics.
00:21Many of the policies and strategies we see in Russia today were first trialed in Belarus.
00:27These ideas are tested, refined, and perfected in the smaller nation
00:33before being rolled out on a larger scale in Russia.
00:36To understand where Russia is heading, all we need to do is closely observe Belarus.
00:43I'm Elvira Barry, an author born in the USSR,
00:46and today we are diving deep into the world of Belarus,
00:50a small but significant example of an authoritarian regime.
00:54Belarus has become a golden standard for dictatorship
00:58and we'll explore how this tiny nation operates,
01:01why it remains under the grip of its long-time leader Alexander Lukashenko,
01:06and why getting rid of him seems nearly impossible.
01:16Let's start with some basic facts about Belarus.
01:19Located in Eastern Europe, Belarus shares borders with Russia, Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, and Ukraine.
01:26Its position at the crossroads of Central Europe and Russia
01:29makes it a key strategic ally for the Kremlin.
01:33The population is around 9.4 million,
01:36less than the population of Moscow, which stands at 13.1 million.
01:42Economically, Belarus is heavily reliant on Russia,
01:46especially for energy, trade, and financial support
01:49through loans and direct transfers to sustain the regime.
01:53The country lacks significant natural resources
01:56and its heavy industry is largely a remnant of the Soviet era,
02:01struggling to adapt to modern demands.
02:03The food in Belarus is excellent.
02:06And farming, whether full-time or part-time,
02:10is a key part of the national economy and identity.
02:14However, the one thriving sector of Belarus economy
02:18was once the IT industry.
02:20If you've ever played the game World of Tanks,
02:23you've enjoyed a product made in Belarus.
02:27But with the regime's constant suppression of economic freedom,
02:32many IT companies have since fled the country.
02:34President Lukashenko, in power since 1994,
02:39has been a steadfast ally of Putin,
02:42offering support in international conflicts.
02:45However, he remains cautious about direct involvement
02:49in the ongoing war in Ukraine.
02:51Lukashenko walks a delicate line,
02:54balancing his hold on power within Belarus
02:57while providing diplomatic and political support to Russia.
03:07For a dictatorship to thrive,
03:10two key elements are necessary.
03:12A deep-rooted fear passed down through generations
03:15and an economy designed as a bottleneck,
03:18where those in power control all major industries,
03:23trade routes, and resources,
03:24keeping the population dependent.
03:27Belarus has both in abundance.
03:30Located at the heart of Europe,
03:32Belarus has always been a crossroads for conflict.
03:35World War I, the Civil War,
03:37and World War II all passed through this land,
03:40claiming the lives of one in every three or four people
03:44if they didn't manage to escape.
03:46This history of constant turmoil
03:49has shaped the collective mindset.
03:51In Belarus, the values are not focused on progress or development,
03:55but rather on safety and survival.
03:58The fear that change might make things worse
04:01is ingrained in the mindset of many.
04:04The more a person relies on the state,
04:06the more they fear any alternative.
04:08And the state works hard to ensure
04:11as many people as possible remain dependent.
04:14Belarusians are adaptable.
04:17They avoid meddling in things
04:19that don't directly concern them.
04:22The national dream is not about revolution or political change.
04:26It's about owning a home,
04:28having a car,
04:29and providing a better life for their children.
04:32This creates a deep-seated cynicism and materialism,
04:37making them skeptical of any grand ideology.
04:41My Belarusian friend once shared a sad joke.
04:44The king hung a Russian,
04:46a Ukrainian,
04:47and a Belarusian.
04:49The Russian struggled and died.
04:51The Ukrainian broke free ropes,
04:54but still perished.
04:55While the Belarusian didn't even resist.
04:58They took him down after a week,
05:00and he came back to life.
05:03When asked how it was possible,
05:05he shrugged and said,
05:06At first it hurt,
05:08but then I got used to it.
05:15During the Soviet era,
05:17Belarus was a key industrial hub.
05:20However,
05:20after the collapse of the Soviet Union,
05:22many factories became obsolete
05:24and eventually shut down
05:26due to their lack of profitability.
05:28The ones that survived
05:30continued to rely heavily
05:32on government subsidies.
05:34A similar fate
05:35befell the collective farms.
05:38While Russia dismantled
05:40most of its collective farms,
05:42Belarus kept the system alive.
05:44The logic behind it is simple.
05:46It doesn't matter
05:48if these factories and farms
05:49are unprofitable,
05:51as long as the workers are paid.
05:53If people are occupied
05:55with hard work
05:56for a modest income
05:57that allows them to survive
05:59and save a little,
06:00they are less likely to rebel.
06:03Rebellious thoughts
06:04usually emerge
06:05when people are doing well,
06:07but then the economy declines
06:10and their expectations aren't met.
06:13As long as the economy
06:15remains relatively stable,
06:17few are willing to fight for freedom.
06:20So,
06:21who is keeping this system afloat?
06:23The Russian government.
06:25And the Russian government
06:27funds it
06:27through the sale
06:28of natural resources abroad.
06:30Belarus,
06:31in this sense,
06:32is like a remora fish
06:34accompanying the big shark.
06:36In the capital,
06:38Minsk,
06:38a typical salary
06:39is around $500 a month.
06:41If you make $700 a month,
06:44that means you make it big.
06:46The typical pension
06:48is around $250 a month.
06:51And somehow,
06:52people manage to live on that
06:54and even save.
06:55Rent for a two-bedroom apartment
06:57in Minsk
06:58can cost around $550 a month.
07:02Although,
07:03cheaper options do exist.
07:05Buying a two-bedroom apartment
07:06in Minsk
07:07costs anywhere from
07:09$50,000 to $100,000.
07:12In Minsk,
07:14a town with a population
07:16of $125,000,
07:19you can buy a three-bedroom apartment
07:21for about $36,000.
07:25In Belarus,
07:26staying unemployed
07:27is nearly impossible.
07:29There is a law
07:30that penalizes the unemployed,
07:32requiring them to register
07:34with the job center.
07:36Those who don't comply
07:38face heavy taxes
07:40or high utility rates.
07:42This is not about
07:44promoting work ethics
07:45or guiding citizens
07:47toward productive paths.
07:49Rather,
07:50it's about control.
07:51The state wants to
07:52oversee all sources of income
07:55and ensure it knows
07:56who's getting what.
07:58Political resistance
08:00requires funding.
08:01So,
08:03the simplest way
08:04to maintain authoritarian stability
08:06is to ensure
08:07potential rebels
08:08have neither the time,
08:10money,
08:11nor energy to protest.
08:18After the collapse
08:20of the Soviet Union,
08:21Belarus was in dire straits.
08:23Corruption had decimated
08:26the remnants of the national economy
08:28and it was during
08:29this chaotic period
08:30that Alexander Lukashenko
08:32won his first election.
08:34And it was a fair contest.
08:37He promised to punish
08:39corrupt officials,
08:40introduce social programs
08:42and take care of ordinary Belarusians.
08:45However,
08:46for people like him,
08:47the idea of relinquishing power
08:50is unimaginable.
08:52Lukashenko fits the personality type
08:54of hunter-commander.
08:55By the way,
08:56if you are curious about
08:57your own personality type,
08:59check the link
09:00in the description.
09:01The hunter-commander type
09:02craves power
09:04and draws energy from it.
09:06Lukashenko possesses
09:07a strong will,
09:08a desire to be seen
09:10as the father of the nation
09:11and undeniable charisma.
09:14When he enters the room,
09:15everyone knows
09:16who is in charge.
09:17He is utterly convinced
09:19of his own correctness
09:21and effortlessly
09:23imposes his will
09:24on others.
09:25He believes that
09:26whatever good happens,
09:28he is the one
09:29who made it happen.
09:30He claims to control everything,
09:33including the rain,
09:34and no one doubts him.
09:37He is an expert in everything.
09:39He does not suffer
09:40from delusions of grandeur.
09:42He revels in it.
09:44Lukashenko takes pleasure
09:46in publicly humiliating
09:48his officials.
09:49Belarusian television
09:50frequently airs footage
09:52of him gathering
09:53his ministers,
09:55berating them,
09:56and watching
09:57as they cover in fear,
10:00heads hunched.
10:01The public loves it,
10:02as it gives them a sense
10:04that he is standing up
10:06for the week
10:06and can restore order
10:09with an iron fist.
10:12To maintain this image,
10:14Lukashenko regularly
10:15agarnizes public spectacles
10:17to showcase
10:18his achievements.
10:20For example,
10:22once a year,
10:22he picks a small town,
10:24orders everyone
10:25to fix it up,
10:27and then visits
10:28to bask in the glory
10:30of his success.
10:31Despite this,
10:33Lukashenko lost
10:34the 2020 election,
10:35but Russia intervened
10:37with money
10:38and sent police
10:39to crash the protests.
10:40That's how it ended.
10:42Since then,
10:43there has been
10:44no pretense
10:45of fair elections.
10:47The opposition
10:48is persecuted,
10:49but the borders
10:51remain open,
10:52allowing potential
10:53troublemakers
10:54to flee.
10:55In truth,
10:56Lukashenko benefits
10:57from this situation.
10:58If someone leaves,
11:00they are no longer a threat.
11:02Changing the situation
11:04from abroad
11:04is impossible.
11:06The problem,
11:07however,
11:07is that those
11:08who flee
11:09are the very people
11:10who drive Belarus
11:11innovation and progress.
11:13The level of immigration
11:15after the failed
11:162020 revolution
11:17is staggering.
11:19Some sociologists
11:20estimate
11:21that about a quarter
11:22of a million
11:23Belarusians
11:24left the country.
11:25Many have moved
11:26to the Baltic states
11:28and Poland,
11:29replacing those
11:30who had previously
11:31gone to Germany
11:32and the UK.
11:34However,
11:34many have gone
11:35even further,
11:36settling in France,
11:38Spain,
11:38Mexico,
11:39Canada,
11:39and the United States.
11:41By the way,
11:41we can expect
11:42a new wave
11:43of immigrants
11:44from Russia
11:44for the same reasons.
11:46This will be
11:47a high-quality migration,
11:48but it will be
11:50driven by desperation.
11:52Many will be
11:53unprepared,
11:54with little to no
11:56foreign language skills.
11:57If some European countries
11:59are struggling
12:00with labor shortages
12:01and depopulation,
12:03perhaps it's worth
12:04considering Russians,
12:06who could bring
12:07labor expertise
12:08and capital.
12:09If the West
12:10shuts its borders,
12:12this flow
12:13will likely go elsewhere,
12:14most probably
12:15to Kazakhstan.
12:16Well,
12:17like the white emigres
12:18after the Russian
12:19civil war
12:20in the 1920s,
12:22they will find
12:23loopholes
12:24in the system
12:25and come anyway.
12:26There were
12:27two million
12:28of them back then.
12:30I'll share
12:31how they did it
12:32and managed
12:32to survive
12:33and thrive
12:33against all odds
12:35in my upcoming novel
12:36The White Ghost's Empire.
12:38Be sure to subscribe
12:39to my newsletter,
12:40link in the description,
12:42for updates.
12:48Lukashenko's supporters
12:49are those
12:50who rely on his ability
12:51to maintain
12:52the status quo,
12:53tying their future
12:54to the survival
12:55of his regime.
12:56On the other hand,
12:58the opposition
12:58consists of people
13:00who trust
13:00in their own education,
13:02talents,
13:03and business
13:03argument
13:04to shape
13:04their future.
13:05They also hold
13:06hopes of revitalizing
13:08their nation
13:09independently
13:10from Russia.
13:11Under the Soviet regimes,
13:13the government
13:14pretended to support
13:15national identity,
13:16but in reality,
13:18this period
13:19accelerated
13:19Russification.
13:20In Belarusian cities,
13:22most people
13:23speak Russian,
13:24though many still
13:24know some Belarusian
13:26mostly from
13:27their grandmothers
13:28in rural areas.
13:29Like much
13:31of the former USSR,
13:32Belarus experienced
13:34rapid urbanization
13:35in the 20th century,
13:36with many young people
13:38moving from
13:39the countryside
13:39to the cities.
13:41After the collapse
13:42of the Soviet Union,
13:44many educated people
13:45began learning Belarusian,
13:46and a sense
13:48of national identity
13:49started to take root.
13:51However,
13:52the dictator
13:52views this movement
13:54as a threat,
13:55as his personal survival
13:57and the stability
13:58of his regime
13:59depend on Russia.
14:01Any push
14:02for independence
14:03or separation
14:04from Russian influence
14:05is seen as dangerous.
14:07As a result,
14:08Belarus finds itself
14:10in a strange situation.
14:12If you speak Belarusian
14:14and wear a traditional
14:15embroidered clothing,
14:16you are viewed
14:17with suspicion.
14:19The historical
14:20white-red-white flag,
14:22which became a symbol
14:23of the failed
14:242020 revolution,
14:26is displayed
14:27alongside the Nazi flag
14:29in museums.
14:30The government
14:31spreads the narrative
14:33that Nazis
14:34and those
14:34calling for free elections
14:36are one
14:37and the same.
14:39And this
14:40manipulation works.
14:42If you watch
14:43Belarusian TV
14:44or read
14:45state-run social media,
14:47you'd think
14:48that country is thriving.
14:49In reality,
14:50the culture
14:51is oppressed
14:52while sports
14:53are glorified.
14:54Sports give people
14:55something to pride
14:56themselves on
14:57and keep them quiet.
14:59Belarus culture
15:00is still stuck
15:01in the Soviet mold
15:03with patriotic songs
15:04and beauty pageants,
15:06something Lukashenko
15:07and the elite love.
15:09But Belarus
15:10doesn't even reach
15:12the Soviet level anymore.
15:13once home
15:15to one of the
15:16leading Soviet
15:17film studios,
15:18Belarus Film.
15:19Now it's
15:20just a run-down
15:21site for cheap
15:22Russian film productions.
15:24Those
15:25with talent
15:26and ambition
15:27live
15:27and many
15:28believe
15:29there's no
15:29turning back.
15:31Belarusian culture
15:32is slowly
15:33bleeding to death.
15:34There's a severe
15:35lack of historical memory.
15:37The government
15:38tells its people
15:39to remember
15:40their history
15:40but it only
15:41emphasizes
15:42the suffering
15:43of Belarusians
15:44during World War II,
15:46framing it
15:46in a way
15:47that fosters
15:48passivity
15:49and fear
15:50of the outside world.
15:52Everything
15:52that happened
15:53before
15:53is ignored.
15:55Belarus
15:56was once
15:56part of the
15:57Grand Duchy
15:58of Lithuania,
15:59one of the
16:00largest
16:00and most powerful
16:01states
16:02in the medieval
16:03Europe.
16:03But the idea
16:05of shared past
16:06with the Baltic
16:07states
16:07and Poland
16:08is considered
16:10dangerous
16:10as it makes
16:12people question
16:12why they live
16:14much poorer
16:14than their
16:15closest neighbors.
16:16Could the problem
16:17lie with the
16:18government?
16:18To counter
16:20this idea,
16:20Lukashenko
16:21employs a strategy
16:22similar to Putin's.
16:23He blames
16:24the West
16:25for everything,
16:26claiming that
16:27Europe
16:27is in decline
16:28with high
16:29unemployment
16:30and suffering
16:32from the
16:32supposed
16:33forced
16:33gay propaganda
16:34that
16:35allegedly
16:35causes children
16:37to change
16:37their gender.
16:38Since many
16:39people have
16:40never traveled
16:41abroad
16:41and are stuck
16:43in their own
16:43echo chamber,
16:45this narrative
16:46resonates with
16:47some.
16:52Lukashenko
16:53understands
16:53the danger
16:54of an educated
16:55population
16:56to his power
16:56and has
16:57intentionally
16:58dismantled
16:59the freedom
17:00of education.
17:01One notable
17:02example is
17:03the closure
17:03of the
17:04European Humanities
17:06University in
17:06Minsk.
17:07It was shut
17:08down under
17:08the pretext
17:09that the
17:10campus was
17:10unsuitable for
17:12classes.
17:12However,
17:13the true reason
17:14was its growing
17:15influence and
17:16independent
17:17thought.
17:18Education in
17:19Belarus is
17:20designed to be
17:21entirely submissive
17:22to the dictator.
17:24Officially,
17:2528% of
17:26Belarusians
17:26over 25
17:27have a higher
17:28education,
17:29but very few
17:30work in their
17:31fields.
17:31the country
17:33has a large
17:34number of
17:34universities,
17:35but this
17:36does not
17:37impact the
17:37culture
17:38significantly.
17:39While the
17:39technical
17:40education
17:40system is
17:41decent,
17:42the humanities
17:43are in
17:44terrible
17:44state.
17:45The government
17:46wants to
17:47produce
17:47obedient
17:48cogs for
17:49the system,
17:50prioritizing
17:50engineers,
17:51doctors,
17:52and IT
17:52specialists.
17:53Even those
17:54with little
17:55formal education
17:56in history
17:56or political
17:57science
17:58could pose
17:58a threat
17:59to the
18:00regime
18:00if they
18:01had
18:01significant
18:02income
18:03independent
18:04of the
18:04state.
18:06Laking
18:06natural
18:06resources,
18:07the
18:07Belarusian
18:08government
18:08needs
18:09money,
18:10and initially
18:11Lukashenko
18:12saw the
18:12development
18:13of a
18:13Silicon
18:14Valley
18:14as a
18:15potential
18:16solution
18:16to generate
18:17much-needed
18:18revenue.
18:18The problem,
18:20however,
18:20was that
18:21as IT
18:22specialists
18:23earn
18:23income
18:235-10
18:25times
18:25higher
18:26than
18:26the
18:26average,
18:27they
18:27began
18:28to
18:28travel,
18:29experience
18:30the
18:30world,
18:30and
18:31eventually
18:31think
18:32they
18:32mattered.
18:34They
18:34started
18:35to voice
18:35political
18:36demands.
18:37For
18:38several
18:38decades,
18:39the
18:39Belarusian
18:40IT
18:40sector
18:41grew
18:41rapidly,
18:42but
18:42this
18:43success
18:43sparked
18:44considerable
18:45resentment.
18:46The
18:46contrast
18:47between
18:47the
18:48tech
18:48elite
18:48and
18:49the
18:49rest
18:49of
18:49the
18:49population
18:50was
18:50too
18:51stark,
18:51and
18:52many
18:52viewed
18:53intellectual
18:54workers
18:54with
18:55suspicion.
18:56There is
18:56a deeply
18:57ingrained
18:58belief
18:58that people
18:59should
18:59work
18:59in
19:00agriculture
19:00or
19:01manufacturing,
19:02industries
19:03the
19:03state
19:03supports.
19:04After
19:05the
19:052020
19:06revolution,
19:07Lukashenko
19:07distanced
19:08himself
19:09from
19:09the
19:09IT
19:09sector,
19:10raising
19:11taxes
19:11and
19:11driving
19:12many
19:12companies
19:13to
19:13flee.
19:18In
19:19Belarus,
19:20the
19:20elite
19:20is
19:20comprised
19:21of
19:21law
19:22enforcement
19:23officers.
19:24The
19:25police,
19:25army,
19:26and the
19:26local
19:26political
19:27police
19:27all
19:28form
19:28the
19:28backbone
19:29of
19:30Lukashenko's
19:30regime.
19:31His
19:32power rests
19:32on the
19:33fact that
19:34these
19:34individuals
19:35will
19:35follow
19:36orders
19:36to
19:36beat,
19:37imprison,
19:37and,
19:38if necessary,
19:39kill
19:39citizens.
19:40Belarus
19:41still has
19:41the death
19:42penalty.
19:43Police
19:43are recruited
19:44from rural
19:45areas and
19:46are provided
19:47with
19:47privileges
19:48such as
19:49state-run
19:49child care,
19:51subsidized
19:52housing,
19:53high salaries,
19:54and early
19:54retirement.
19:55For many,
19:56becoming a
19:56policeman is
19:57the only
19:58way to
19:58rise in
19:59society.
20:00Despite
20:01the fear
20:01they instill,
20:02they are
20:03not
20:03respected.
20:04There's a
20:05joke about
20:06them.
20:07Why do
20:07Belarusian
20:08cops walk
20:09in three?
20:09One can
20:10read,
20:11one can
20:11write,
20:11and one
20:12can
20:12talk.
20:14Leaving
20:14the police
20:15force is
20:16extremely
20:16difficult.
20:17The state
20:18ensures that
20:19officers are
20:20effectively
20:20trapped in
20:21the system
20:22with few
20:23options for
20:23living without
20:24facing severe
20:25consequences.
20:27If they
20:28choose to
20:28quit,
20:29they are
20:29required to
20:30repay all
20:31the money
20:31the state
20:32has invested
20:33in their
20:33education,
20:34training,
20:34and other
20:35expenses.
20:37Tourists
20:37visiting
20:38Belarus
20:38might find
20:39it clean,
20:40beautiful,
20:41and seemingly
20:42crime-free
20:43with no
20:44overt bribery.
20:45The country
20:45doesn't suffer
20:46from much
20:47violent crime,
20:48but it
20:49does have
20:50a significant
20:51suicide rate.
20:52Many people
20:53don't seek
20:53help and
20:54turn to
20:54alcohol to
20:55cope with
20:56their depression,
20:57which often
20:57leads to
20:58tragic
20:58consequences.
21:00The rural
21:01areas and
21:01cities alike
21:02are plagued
21:03with
21:03alcoholism,
21:05a deep
21:05sense of
21:06hopelessness,
21:07and a
21:07culture where
21:08the weekend
21:09is just
21:09about drinking.
21:11Official
21:12statistics,
21:13of course,
21:13paint a picture
21:14that everything
21:15is fine,
21:16and if
21:17there are
21:17any issues,
21:19things are
21:19improving.
21:20But when
21:21you talk to
21:22real people
21:22and ask about
21:23their personal
21:24experiences,
21:25the harsh
21:26reality comes
21:27to light.
21:28The death
21:28rate exceeds
21:29the birth
21:30rate.
21:31While the
21:31government
21:32tools its
21:33health care
21:33system as
21:34one of the
21:35best in
21:35the region,
21:36the personal
21:37experiences of
21:38patients in
21:39hospitals tell
21:40a very
21:41different story.
21:42another
21:43consequence of
21:44personal
21:45vulnerability
21:46and
21:46powerlessness
21:47before the
21:47state is
21:48the widespread
21:50belief in
21:50mysticism,
21:51such as
21:52horoscopes,
21:53curses,
21:55homeopathy,
21:56and other
21:57magical remedies.
21:58The police
21:59state operates
22:00like an
22:00overwhelming
22:01force of
22:02nature,
22:02and many
22:03people feel
22:03they can
22:04only pray
22:05it won't
22:05affect them.
22:06In a world
22:07that seems
22:08hostile and
22:09unpredictable,
22:09many turn
22:11to magic
22:11for answers,
22:12believing it's
22:13the only way
22:14to understand
22:15the logic
22:15of their
22:16circumstances.
22:21In 2020,
22:23despite everything,
22:25Belarusians made
22:26a desperate
22:27attempt to
22:27claim their
22:28freedom.
22:29After the
22:29elections were
22:30rigged,
22:30men took
22:31to the
22:31streets but
22:32were quickly
22:33suppressed
22:34with rubber
22:35bullets.
22:36Then women,
22:37barefoot and
22:38holding flowers,
22:39faced off
22:40against the
22:41police in
22:41full gear.
22:43At first,
22:44it was
22:44inspiring.
22:45People believed
22:46the Belarus
22:47was on the
22:48brink of
22:49freedom.
22:50Hundreds of
22:50thousands
22:51flooded the
22:52streets while
22:53cars honked
22:54in solidarity.
22:56Lukashenko,
22:57at a loss,
22:58didn't know
22:58how to
22:59respond.
23:00The police
23:00began arresting
23:02and beating
23:02the women,
23:03subjecting
23:04them to
23:04unimaginable
23:06horrors in
23:06prisons,
23:07hoping to
23:08break the
23:09will of
23:09the people.
23:10The tactic
23:11worked.
23:12But even
23:13after the
23:13protests were
23:14crashed,
23:15the effects
23:16lingered.
23:17During the
23:18protests,
23:19security
23:19officers
23:20infiltrated
23:21the crowds,
23:22taking
23:22photos of
23:23demonstrators.
23:24They later
23:25tracked these
23:26individuals on
23:27social media.
23:28Even five
23:29years later,
23:30anyone who
23:31was part of
23:32these protests
23:32lived in
23:33fear of
23:34arrest.
23:35Lukashenko's
23:35statement that
23:36he would
23:36imprison every
23:38protester still
23:39echoes.
23:40There is no
23:42justice in
23:43the courts.
23:43The state
23:44deliberately
23:45terrorized its
23:46citizens,
23:47handling down
23:48harsh sentences
23:49for merely
23:50demanding fair
23:51elections.
23:52Since the
23:53protests were
23:54widespread,
23:55many people
23:56now live in
23:57constant fear.
23:58Some remain
23:59hidden in
24:00their shadows,
24:01lacking official
24:02papers,
24:03bank accounts,
24:04or access
24:05to basic
24:05services.
24:06This
24:06detachment from
24:07the state
24:08offers them
24:08symbols of
24:09safety, but
24:11searches and
24:12arrests continue.
24:13If a
24:14protester escapes
24:16the country,
24:16the police may
24:17go to their
24:18elderly parents'
24:19home to
24:20terrorize them
24:21in retaliation.
24:23One common
24:24form of
24:25punishment is
24:26home chemistry,
24:28a type of
24:29house arrest
24:30where individuals
24:31are confined
24:32to their
24:32homes under
24:33constant
24:34surveillance.
24:35It's often
24:36used as a
24:37less severe
24:38alternative to
24:38prison, but
24:39it comes with
24:40the same
24:41suffocating
24:42control.
24:43Offenders
24:43can go to
24:44work, but
24:45after 6pm
24:47they are
24:47prohibited from
24:48leaving their
24:49homes.
24:49It's a life
24:51of constant
24:51monitoring, where
24:53even the
24:53smallest freedom
24:54is stripped
24:55away, leaving
24:56people to
24:56endure a
24:57quiet, oppressive
24:58existence.
25:04Lukashenko has
25:05stolen the
25:06future from
25:06his country.
25:07Those who
25:08can live
25:08do so, while
25:10those who
25:10cannot stay
25:11behind, resigning
25:13themselves to
25:13a life of
25:14surviving the
25:15best way they
25:16can, or not
25:17surviving at
25:18all.
25:19The birth rate
25:19is alarmingly
25:21low, with
25:21only 150
25:23children born
25:23for every
25:24100 women,
25:26while 210
25:27and 10
25:28children per
25:29100 women
25:30are needed
25:30for population
25:31replacement.
25:33There is no
25:34migration to
25:35compensate for
25:35this, so the
25:37population continues
25:38to shrink.
25:40Officially,
25:40Lukashenko
25:41expresses concern
25:42and tries to
25:43create programs
25:44to support
25:45families, but
25:46Belarusian women
25:47are not rushing
25:49to have children,
25:50despite being
25:51told everything
25:52is fine in
25:53their country.
25:54In reality,
25:55there is no
25:56way out.
25:57It seems that
25:58Russia is heading
25:59toward the
26:00same fate.
26:01While Russia
26:02is not a direct
26:03copy of
26:04Belarus, there
26:05are clear
26:06parallels.
26:07Both countries
26:08are governed
26:08by an absolute
26:10monarchy, with
26:11unclear lines
26:12of succession.
26:13Who will
26:14take over
26:15after Lukashenko?
26:16It's unclear.
26:17He parades
26:18his son
26:18Koli around,
26:20but he will
26:20likely be devoured
26:21by the system
26:22as soon as
26:23his father
26:24passes.
26:24The situation
26:26in Russia
26:26is no different
26:27when it comes
26:28to succession.
26:29What unites
26:30both nations
26:31is the elite's
26:32indifference
26:32to the people.
26:33The elites
26:34seek control
26:35over resources,
26:36be it Russia's
26:38vast natural
26:39wealth or
26:40Belarus's
26:40close ties
26:41to the Russian
26:42leadership.
26:43Both nations
26:44undermine
26:45education and
26:46culture,
26:46and both
26:47have an
26:47overwhelming
26:48number of
26:49police officers
26:50per capita.
26:51In both
26:52countries,
26:53the system
26:53encourages the
26:54immigration of
26:55the rebellious
26:55while
26:56intimidating
26:57those who
26:58remain.
26:59In conclusion,
27:00let me say
27:01this.
27:02Humanity is
27:03inclined to
27:04authoritarianism
27:05by nature.
27:06For thousands
27:08of years,
27:08that's how power
27:10has been structured
27:11in our species.
27:13Someone rises
27:14to the top
27:15and controls
27:16the fates
27:17and resources
27:17of everyone
27:18else.
27:19Democracy
27:20is a construct
27:21and it
27:22took humanity
27:23a long time
27:23to conceive
27:24it.
27:25It's extremely
27:26difficult to
27:26maintain because
27:27our behavioral
27:28instincts constantly
27:30pull us back
27:31into authoritarianism
27:33unless we
27:33actively guard
27:34against it.
27:36Some might
27:37think authoritarianism
27:38brings order
27:39and stability
27:40as it has been
27:42justified by
27:43centuries of
27:44experience.
27:45But times
27:46have changed
27:47and now
27:48we can clearly
27:49see that
27:50authoritarianism
27:51lead to the
27:52exodus of
27:53the talented,
27:54the destruction
27:55of the brave
27:56and the rejection
27:57of childbirth
27:58by women
27:59as it becomes
28:00a symbol
28:01of deep
28:02societal failure.
28:04These are
28:05the hard facts
28:06reflected
28:07in the numbers.
28:09If you found
28:10something useful
28:11in today's video,
28:12please support
28:13my channel
28:13through SuperFinks
28:15or by clicking
28:16the join button
28:16below.
28:17And don't forget
28:18to check out
28:19my novel
28:19Russian Treasures.
28:20It's the story
28:21of how Soviet
28:22authoritarianism
28:23was born
28:24and took
28:24its first
28:25tentative steps
28:26in the early
28:2720th century.
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