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00:05Jeremy Grant Ham, 86 anni, è il cofondatore di GMO, una delle più importanti società di gestione
00:12patrimoniale al mondo, che amministra circa 85 miliardi di dollari di asset. Pur non gestendo
00:18in prima persona i fondi da circa 15 anni, resta comunque il principale stratega di lungo termine
00:25della società ed è celebre per aver previsto con successo alcune delle più grandi bolle finanziarie
00:31degli ultimi decenni. In questa intervista ai colleghi di CNBC spiega perché ritiene ancora
00:38sopravvalutato il mercato azionario statunitense, quali asset privilegia oggi e come orientarsi
00:44tra bolle speculative e investimenti di lungo periodo.
00:55Come andata, come andata, come andata.
00:56C'è ancora un spazio anche per l'informe, anche per il momento in cui credo che questo
00:57è il nostro prezzo.
00:57Come andata, come andata.
00:58Come andata, cofondertate a questo, c'è parte della storia di mercato, e di compagnie
01:03di investimento.
01:04È l'autor perche di lungo termini in una settoria di milioni di genere di geronti
01:12e molto affascinato da un luogo.
01:14Grazie a tutti.
01:15Con il buon momento.
01:15Poi, se, è una cosa di non dichiarazione.
01:23we not in a bubble are we always in a bubble and how much of this is about
01:28being able to call the timing versus being able to actually understand the
01:31underlying economics at play okay we needed a definition of a bubble so we
01:38found a very precise one a nerdy statistical term two sigma the kind that
01:44would come up every 44 years if it was completely random and actually comes up
01:48every 36 years so it's pretty close and we tracked through and found all the
01:54bubbles that met that definition and we asked the question how many broke all the
02:00way back to the pre-existing trend and there were 26 of them and 26 broke all
02:05the way back to the pre-existing trend and some of them went up from two sigma to
02:10two and a half sigma and in the case of Japan almost three sigma so they can be
02:14painfully higher than just two sigma and that's the problem because the
02:19client's patience is not quite as long so I I appreciate the problem of calling it
02:24of calling it but the other problem is that it has paid shockingly well to be a
02:32perma bull over the last hundred years more than it is paid to be a perma bear
02:37oh of course we live in a rising economy in the long run but half the time you're
02:43waiting to get back to the old high people don't realize that because we've
02:47just spent the last whatever it is 16 years going up but in the long run it's
02:53half the time after 1929 you have to wait until 1954 after 1972 you have to wait until
03:0480 80 80 a long time 81 or 82 yeah so so where are we now then what what's the
03:12what's the comparable to you in a very real sense I'm not sure there is a
03:17comparable but the tech bubble of 2000 would come the closest on the ways that
03:23are the value systems are the most predictive based on the value of the
03:29stock market compared to the GDP with with modifications this is the most
03:35expensive market in American history and if it's the most expensive market in
03:40American history does that mean that it's overvalued and has to go down from
03:44here or is it possible they could continue to go up for many more years my
03:50guess is sometime between two weeks ago two weeks from now two months two
03:54quarters and conceivably two years the timing is always terribly uncertain the
03:59markets going to peak out and drop back to trend and getting back to trend from
04:03here is closer to a 70 percent decline than a 50 percent a 70 percent decline you
04:10think is in order yes I do and and bear in mind we said a 70 75 percent decline for
04:17the Nasdaq in 2000 in our quarterly letters and they went down 82 what was in in 2021 and
04:262022 what was your super bubble call and that predicted an imminent catastrophe crash across
04:33stocks bonds real estate commodities and stocks the another one in 2023 another
04:40collapse prediction no no but how about how about in 2021 was a super the only two
04:47times I clearly said it's now the other times I said it's overpriced the 21st
04:52century has been overpriced by the standards of the 20th century a hundred
04:57years of data we've been overpriced is there any argument around I was gonna make an
05:01argument of technology or 2010 through the 2010s did were you ever bullish
05:07through that entire period 2009 almost there I posted my only one pager call
05:18reinvesting when terrified but but most of the time by a miracle it was a big big
05:22big bull market 2010 2010 to 2020 666 okay but and nobody else by the way was
05:28touting the market okay that week that month but through 2010 a huge bull market
05:34the 210 to 220. from 2010 until today the PE has averaged over 60% higher than it
05:42did for the prior hundred years now I don't know when you decide to say the
05:46market is overvalued but if you're traveling at 60% higher PA than it used to
05:51be I think that it doesn't say the market's going to collapse but it does
05:55indicate it's expensive well that was my but my question this goes to the
05:59technology piece of it and I think we're in this moment now with AI where
06:02everybody's you know asking the question which is you know the most dangerous
06:06words in economics is this time different you talk about a 60 times PE are
06:11we in a 60% higher 60% higher are we in a in a in a moment now though
06:17where the
06:18technology fundamentally is different and it fundamentally is going to rewrite the
06:22rules of investing and valuations and everything else the great new inventions
06:29railroads are always accompanied by it's going to rewrite the rules internet a
06:36huge invention changed everybody's life they were always accompanied by over
06:41investment and temporary collapse out of which the railroads changed the world the
06:46internet changes the world this is exactly the case today AI is so obviously a
06:53dazzlingly important idea everybody knows it don't they yeah we all know it and
06:58therefore we all want to put our money in it don't we so we all put our money in
07:02it and it sucks in more than you can shake a stick at and you get over
07:07investment so everyone in the end in those situations loses their shirt they
07:12lost their shirts in the railroad brilliant idea they lost their shirts in
07:16the internet these are the three great ideas of the last 200 years and they will
07:21lose their shirts in AI now out of that bear in mind that Amazon in 2000 came down 92%
07:29it
07:29had gone up six times it came down 92% and then inherited the earth well so what I
07:36was gonna ask you know I'd asked Jeff Bezos about whether we were in a in a
07:39bubble when I saw him and interviewed him on this broadcast just a couple weeks
07:44maybe a month ago now and he said we might be in a bubble but actually that
07:48bubbles unto themselves when you think about sort of great innovation and
07:52great progress even for humanity is required think of the fiber optic cable
07:59that got laid it ruined everyone at the time back in 2000 but we used eventually
08:05we used all that cable the trouble is by the way the fiber optic cable would last a
08:09long time chips today may be redundant in two years so you think there's actually a big
08:16distinction I do between some of the investments that were made then and you
08:20know we were talking when I was talking to Jeff who was about a biotechnology and
08:23actually a lot of stuff that actually you know there's a bio biotech bubble and but
08:27a lot of great things came out of it you think less great things are ultimately going to come
08:31out of this sort of data center I think this is going to change everyone's life the
08:38disagreement in opinion is more profound than I've seen in any other anything in the stock
08:44market ever really the Nobel Prize winners disagree the bosses disagree the worker bees
08:50disagree everyone disagrees about the consequences we're either going to be sitting on the beach
08:54getting served mint juleps by machines or they're going to kill us accidentally or on purpose
09:02somewhere in that range we haven't talked about Elon Musk yet and we haven't talked about SpaceX
09:07which obviously just had its IPO two weeks ago now and the mag 8 by the way and the mag
09:118
09:12how do you think about a SpaceX in this moment I think it's wonderful I think historians in 50
09:19years 100 years are going to look back at SpaceX and its timing and it's two trillion dollars based
09:24on magnificent losses on its extrapolation of what its addressable market is 90 percent 90 percent
09:35is based on a third rate or second rate at the moment version of AI compared to some of the
09:43two
09:43or three other champs kicking its bottom around the block no they're going to look back and they're going
09:48to say this was one of the defining peaks of all time it's what you want at the market peak
09:54you want a
09:55truly magnificent crazy stuff and you think and you think this will therefore it will not work or you're saying
10:03that
10:03therefore this marks the top and you will what it's the kind of thing you see around the top it's
10:09but is it
10:09possible that SpaceX is the next I mean it's already surpassing frankly almost Amazon here
10:15but do you say to yourself 10 years from now this will turn out to be a great investment
10:19that's very difficult it's like Amazon Amazon I'm sitting there in 2000 you're asking me the
10:26question and I'm saying I'm absolutely confident it will have a crash but where it will go in the
10:31long term the long term is complicated I don't know but is it going to have a crash like Amazon
10:36yes
10:37very likely and then what happens is indeed it may float away debris on the waves of time or it
10:46will
10:47inherit a lot of the market like Amazon did what do you think of Tesla I drive a Tesla I
10:56think it's
10:56great and I think you know it has a future fighting it out with the Chinese for but would have
11:04you ever
11:05imagined if we had this conversation 10 years ago I think you would have said you would have said Tesla's
11:09crazy I did say Tesla was crazy 10 years ago right and let me point out I bought a Tesla
11:16I wrote a
11:16quarterly letter comparing it to the stock and said stocks overpriced the car is beautiful you
11:21know in six years I haven't been into garage people underestimate for old fogies in particular what
11:26a wonderful bonus that is not going into the garage but I said the stock is overpriced and if you
11:32looked at the return on equity and you looked at the return on equity through the next 10 years there
11:37is no way it could do anywhere near as well as it's done so how did it do it almost
11:43uniquely
11:45musk has the ability I call it charisma and bullshit the mix of charisma and bullshit he
11:53talked the stock up to five times more than anyone would think it was worth and then and this is
11:58the
11:58key difference he sold a lot of stock he grabbed a lot of money he built a gigafactory he turned
12:05it into
12:06real life for anyone else selling a lot of stock the stock collapses and everyone says oh delusion
12:11delusion they're killing me but he talked them out of that the stock continued to rise five times value
12:17once again sold a lot more stock build another gigafactory without that without the stock but it's
12:24right huge overpricing he could not have done what one of the great things things that he'd managed to
12:30do that people didn't take into account was just his ability to raise capital yeah the ability to
12:35talk the stock up first and then the willingness to raise capital the problem is the the the scale
12:44of SpaceX compared to Tesla then is absolute day and night you know you have a small market cap that
12:52you can talk up you have a gigantic market cap and the other difference was we were nowhere near in
12:59a
12:59flowering crazy market back then as we are today so the timing is rotten the scale is massive these are
13:07tough times my question is you know you've got a fund here so what is the what is the Grantham
13:14fund do
13:14what does the Grantham family do with its money given your perma bear and sort of feelings about the
13:20universe right now one thing to be clear I do not manage money for GMO now for 15 years I
13:26have let my
13:27colleagues get on with it in my but I assume they ask you for advice well I give it with
13:33okay so what
13:35do you tell them I tell them avoid US stocks the rest of the world is look perfectly fine
13:43um so you say avoid US stocks have you been how long have you been saying avoid US stocks for
13:48to
13:48them um oh a long time but yeah and do you feel like you missed it emphatically but don't you
13:55feel
13:55like at the beginning of last year I mean emerging is up 65 percent Joe and the last but that
14:01would be
14:01one of the criticisms for you you know if you if you all you gotta do is AI yourself and
14:05you'll see
14:05where all the criticism and they are abundant Jeremy but let me point out by the way at the top
14:11of the
14:11bull market people loathe to hear bearish comments they loathe it Joe just like you love it no I don't
14:17love it it's just that if your fund had acted on any of your calls from 2010 to today you
14:27would
14:28have severely underperformed just the S&P well you haven't read my quarterly letters bracing yourself
14:34for a market melt-up was 2018 2018 Joe I I I'm not an I just did a cursory look
14:42right cursory okay
14:44how about reading the quality of emerging markets we're going to do better than that's been dead
14:49wrong for as long as you've held that opinion and I I have not said emerging markets will indefinitely
14:55beat the US what I did say you just public record in in 2000 was that our 10-year forecast
15:02had emerging
15:03markets at plus 12 in first place and then 13 asset classes down we had the S&P at minus
15:09two
15:09okay is this this is this is this is all later all right yes this is falling in at minus
15:15three for 10
15:16years and the S&P okay this is false emerging markets over US equity a long-running GMO position
15:24that has chronically and severely underperformed for well over a decade is that false yeah I don't think
15:30we've made a huge fuss about emerging market until January of last year we we came out again mm-hmm
15:39but
15:40we came out very strongly in 2000 made a 10-year call public record and the S&P went down
15:473 percent a
15:48year compounded for 10 years that is no fun and emerging went up almost 13 percent compounded so it
15:55was over 200 percentage you don't have the S&P you don't accept that you through the 2010s and
16:02earlier in the 2020s that you missed the mark more than I have the mark I have no trouble saying
16:10the S&P kicked the bottom of emerging for at least 10 years no that's not what I just said
16:17you don't
16:18think that I mean this gets nasty it just says that you were right about the 2000 dot-com bubble
16:24and 2008
16:25housing bubble with good timing on both that record earned you enormous credibility which you've
16:30arguably arguably been living off of ever since and not right since that's that's Claude fine I have
16:39been out of the business of managing money for your clients yeah no we have competent funds run by
16:48competent long-term professionals and they speak for themselves I actually looked after money and and
16:58the positioning of the accounts up until the age I was 70 seems reasonable to me right and I was
17:0770
17:07very conveniently and and and and and more or less the bottom of the market right let me ask you
17:17a
17:18different question I was 70 the last year I had any influence a GMO was 2009 let me ask you
17:25a different
17:25question just about the beginning of it when you look at the the great investors of today who do you
17:32look at and and the reason I I ask is you know invariably I'm I'm thinking you might put Warren
17:38Buffett on that list Warren Buffett has an extraordinary amount of cash on the sideline right
17:42now and some people look at that almost as directionally a not a short bet but a waiting for some
17:51kind of
17:51moment bet that sort of hedged against something that looks like you know a conglomerate or almost a
18:00a mini S&P Warren Buffett nine percent ahead of the market for 60 years best record in the business
18:08by far and he's been raising they the fund had been raising cash as fast as they can for over
18:16three
18:16years and Joe could say well Warren you missed it this time you have to move in advance my point
18:23about emerging is emerging kick S&P bottom for 10 years right over 200 percentage points ahead then
18:32the S&P kicks emerging bottom for 12 13 14 years that's the way it's gone through time do you
18:41think
18:41that the emerging employ today do you think the emerging story is still the story that's where you
18:46if you were rotating money if I had to own equities I would much prefer to own emerging and non
18:54-U.S.
18:54equities Europe Canada Australia and so on dare I ask you what you think of crypto no you don't I
19:02think
19:02it's I think it's a useless speculative that goes to zero in your in your calculus no years and years
19:12decades and decades it will dwindle away I suspect not not with a bang but a whimper and you think
19:18that because because it it's not a stable form of value it just half didn't it for no particular
19:27reason in a strong economy so you can't depend on it in that way and by the way over the
19:32same time
19:32period gold made a strong gain yes it's down from the peak but it's it's made a strong gain over
19:38that
19:38time period it's people don't use it to make serious trades they don't use it to buy their
19:43dinner and pay at the supermarket so what the hell does it do what it does is allows crooks to
19:50move
19:50money around without leaving a trace brilliant but so here's the thing you and it's a speculative
19:55thing so you say that and people like Jamie Dimon have made that point before and yet you know the
20:00other side of that argument would say tell it to the person who has either made a fortune when they
20:06bought it at 5,000 and even today sitting at whatever it is $60,000 or the or tell it
20:12to
20:12the person who should have bought it at 5,000 and is and and is looking at the 60,000
20:17in now it's
20:17different if you get to the 120,000 one of my colleagues at GMO actually bought it less than a
20:23dollar in blockchain is a real technology and and there's there's a lot that will transform the
20:29way things are done there's nothing that sacred about about what represents a form of exchange and
20:47the way that Bitcoin is structured fine it there are people that would argue with you that it has a
20:51hard
20:52other than the fact that some people have made a lot of money like a chain letter what what does
20:57crypto do I don't understand the question what what what is the use of crypto it pays no dividend
21:04it doesn't represent an asset you can put your fingers on there is nothing there there it is
21:10just an idea that it will go up in price if you trust me it will go up when when
21:15in the on an
21:17island when shells were used to represent an hour of work that you got a hundred people
21:22each one comparison this is completely faith-based like it represents it represents proof of work
21:28it represents proof of work you're going to be totally wrong on Bitcoin too you you you're going
21:34to be wrong on everything you've proof of unnecessary work shouldn't be worth a bucket of warm spit and
21:39it will not be all right it's only been 20 years so far so someday you might might be right
21:45about
21:45this well look Warren Buffett's in the same camp no I know yes so is Charlie Munger but it you
21:50want
21:50me to list 10 people that aren't in that camp that are I'm just suggesting that there's a lot of
21:55smart
21:55people who also have that view a lot of smart people who have a different view the point is it
22:00hasn't outlived a general bull market we've been in a bull market since March of 09 right and when we
22:10get into a bear market which Joe may may think we never will be again a serious it's just down
22:1650 60
22:1770 do we think it will prosper anybody that listen to you from 2010 is you've done a grave disservice
22:25to
22:25them so if you feel fine with that that that that's that's what you do for a living that's fine
22:30I don't
22:31have a pump Andrew invited you on I'm just pointing out the facts of the situation if someday you might
22:39be
22:39right like a broken clock that's what we'll say this may be a huge bubble that we're in but you've
22:43said it again and again and again and again and again and again and again it takes its view from
22:49gleaning the internet these are fine this is your track record it it isn't my track record I can go
22:55through and give you quarterly letters which I have written prepare bracing yourself for a for a melt-up
23:03a market melt-up 2018 that's already eight years proves you don't know what you're talking about
23:11and there are plenty of others like that
23:16I I don't know where to go with that Joe you can take a mind I said my piece you
23:21booked and you've got your
23:221929 book out maybe it happens at some point maybe it doesn't but you know hopefully it doesn't the market
23:29at this
23:29point that the the S&P is pushing 8,000 eventually and you've probably been bearish for 80% of
23:37that I've
23:39been I've been saying that the market is overpriced by long-term standards so we're at 2300 in the bottom
23:48in April of 2021 did you ever turn bullish
24:00so I rest my case
24:01in the foundation
24:02listen I I I I I don't have an access game it's your guess whatever but this this is this
24:10is the way it is
24:11if you didn't write it you never said it
24:13right okay this this bullshit from the internet is one thing if it's in a quarterly letter I accept
24:19responsibility okay the bad news is I wasn't writing quarterly letters in 2021 so I can't point to
24:25do anything I was running make a decision I was running our family foundation I can tell you what
24:30that was doing right and by the way why don't we just do that I know we got to go
24:34how's the family
24:35foundation done no I'm just giving you the opportunity given given given the criticism
24:39like the rest of life it's been hugely cyclical
24:42up until uh five years ago it was on a 10-year basis beating Harvard and Yale's endowment okay it
24:50was doing very very well we were zero on the database the top dog and then we were the bottom
24:56dog because we were caught in green tech okay the reason we're caught in green tech is that's our mission
25:03we we try and invest our money to encourage new ideas in green technology and we entered an ordinary
25:09bust right which is fine we counted on that what we didn't count on is entering at the end of
25:15that
25:16an administration that is so implacably anti-green and and vc companies are not designed to withstand
25:22seven years of tough environment so it's very tough in the green tech world jeremy grantham thank you for
25:30engaging with us i appreciate it congratulations on the book and we uh we appreciate you being here
25:34so thank you
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