00:00And so I think when you're thinking about the formula here this week, you're like, wait, you kind of was
00:04thinking that the bomb guys, the guys that hit it really long have a big advantage because, you know, their
00:10dispersion is going to be a little bit wider.
00:14So they're going to hit more fairways so they can separate themselves even more because they're in more fairways.
00:20And what I kind of saw was that it wasn't quite as much of a big of an advantage because
00:26I think that even though that you have the distance advantage, it doesn't necessarily mean that you're going to hit
00:33it closer to the hole because some of these green contours are so severe that it doesn't matter who you
00:40are.
00:41Nobody can hold that ninth green if it's downwind and it's a front pin.
00:44And whether you're going to – if you're close enough, it's like, okay, well, I hit a great drive.
00:50I'm 20 yards further than somebody, but I still can't stop the golf ball.
00:54And I think there's a lot of that that happens out here.
00:57So the only way that a bomber really gets an advantage out here is if the greens are soft.
01:03If the greens are soft and that they are more receptive, that's where I see more of an advantage for
01:09those guys.
01:09But if it's firm and the greens, you know, green speeds tick up, then I'm like, give me the guy
01:17who's in the fairway the most.
01:19And so that's where I'm kind of landing right now is that Thursday is going to be super windy, and
01:25I think the green speeds will be manageable.
01:28I don't think the OSGN wants to lose this golf tournament.
01:31So I'm kind of going on a formula of guys that hit a bunch of fairways and players that are
01:37going to find a bunch of greens in regulation, avoid bogeys, and hang out around even parts.
01:43I don't know what you think about that, but that's where I'm at.
01:46It's funny because it's not dissimilar to what we just saw.
01:47Jack's nodding his head.
01:48He's like, all right, I'm kind of starting to come up with this big board over here.
01:52It's not dissimilar to, like, what we just saw Aaron Ride do at Arana make it.
01:56You know, we saw him lay up with a three-wood at one of the longest par fours in championship
02:01history.
02:02But if you can bet on yourself, because we were talking about a good iron player.
02:05I think it's like a very specific type of good iron player, someone who can use the wind to their
02:09advantage.
02:09And, you know, when we have sort of difficult convictions.
02:12Holding wins.
02:13Holding wins, yeah.
02:14Or, you know, or landing in the right spot in the green.
02:16And then you mentioned the par three, because I think the set of par threes out here are amazing.
02:21But you have a long one at two uphill with those bunkers on the right that, you know, it's hard
02:25to not end up in one of those bunkers.
02:27You have the Redan at seven.
02:29And, you know, playing that in the wind, like, good luck trying to figure out.
02:32I mean, you know where you're supposed to land it, but it's sort of a target game.
02:35And then you have the short 11th, of course, we talked about.
02:39And then 17 is another great par three.
02:42Like, it just really just feels like it's going to take a player who can really craft some shots in
02:48a variety of conditions.
02:49And then to your point, once you're on the green, even if you're not close because, you know, the wind's
02:53playing with your ball, you –
02:57I just lost my train of thought there because I think I was expecting to get –
03:02I was expecting to get a reaction from both of you that I did get.
03:05That when the ball gets on the green, you might have to avoid a three-putt.
03:10It's a travel day.
03:10And it's a travel day, and at that point, I'm going to wrap my point of this.
03:14You smile at God, man.
03:16Oh, my gosh.
03:17Well, what I was looking at as you were sitting here rambling away about God knows what.
03:22They had – so there's five greens.
03:25This is another interesting stat that I found.
03:28There were five greens that players hit less than 50% cumulative in 2018.
03:33That is just insane to me.
03:34The 14th hole, which they made that fairway wider, it was very narrow back in 2018.
03:40They've widened that fairway, which is a huge reason why guys maybe weren't able to hold.
03:44It's a little bit more of a narrow run-up, harder to hold the green.
03:47And narrows past that –
03:49It runs away.
03:51You have room to left.
03:52But, again, that's a longer iron shot, right?
03:53Less than 30%.
03:5429% of the players hit that green accumulative.
03:57There were four other ones, too.
03:58The second hole is a ridiculous part three.
04:00They can play 250.
04:0233% of the players hit that green regulation.
04:05And so I know, like, I'm not going to try to bore you with stats,
04:08but what I'm trying to get across as I drop my yardage book is that the wind is the ultimate
04:16factor
04:17of why scores will be what they are, meaning if it's humming, you're going to see some crazy scores.
04:25If the wind's down, which doesn't happen often out here, but if you –
04:30Sunday it looks like it will be 5-10, so you might see some good scores.
04:34And maybe they get the greens a little crispier on Sunday.
04:37But I'm fascinated by plenty of guys.
04:40I'm kind of looking at players that are, you know, ironing it well that, you know, for instance, a player
04:49like a Patrick Reed.
04:50Like, he's kind of a gritty player, hasn't played a ton, but has played –
04:55Played well here in 2018.
04:56Played well in 2018.
04:58His week that he's played this year, he's ironed it well.
05:01He's got a very creative short game, a very good putter, and is not necessarily a great driver of the
05:09golf ball,
05:10but you're benefited with wider fairways here.
05:12So, like, that's a type of player that could kind of fit the profile.
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