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00:09Abbey-Philipp in New York.
00:10Tonight, the agreement between Iran and the United States
00:13has been released, and even allies of the president
00:16are trashing it.
00:18Quote, an American surrender, a grave capitulation,
00:21and the worst foreign policy blunder in decades.
00:25So, what's in it and what is out?
00:28Well, as part of the deal, the parties agreed to immediately
00:31end military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon.
00:35And Iran reaffirms that it will not procure
00:37or develop nuclear weapons.
00:39But Iran seems to be gaining a whole lot out of the war
00:43that Donald Trump started.
00:45This agreement includes an unfreezing of Iranian assets,
00:48significant sanctions relief, and permission for Iran
00:52to sell its oil immediately.
00:54The United States agrees to lift its naval blockade
00:57of the Strait of Hormuz, and Iran agrees to remove mines,
01:00ensuring toll-free passage through that strait,
01:03but only for 60 days.
01:05And perhaps most controversially, the deal could establish
01:08a $300 billion fund paid for by Gulf allies.
01:14Now, questions still remain about Iran's ballistic missile arsenal,
01:17its nuclear enrichment program, and what, if anything,
01:20happens to the nuclear deal, if a deal, a broader deal isn't reached within 60 days.
01:26Now, reacting to this agreement, here is Fox News' host, Trey Gowdy.
01:32They're better off than they were before the hostilities began,
01:36and that should not be the consequence of war.
01:39When you lose a war, I mean, think about it, Sandra,
01:43we went into Iran and rescued a downed pilot.
01:46We had total control over that country.
01:48We were winning militarily and economically.
01:51And when you are in that position, you negotiate from strength.
01:55You don't give people money, you don't give them access.
01:58What are they going to do with the money, Sandra?
02:00You know that Iran is going to use this for nefarious purposes.
02:05We all know that.
02:06The regime has not changed.
02:10And, Kion, you've been with us so much now over the last several months.
02:15We know you to be an expert on the Iranians,
02:18and also expert in these negotiations,
02:20the old one in 2015 and where we are now.
02:22Brent McGurk says, on its face, this new deal returns Iran to the status
02:26it enjoyed under the Obama-era nuclear deal, the JCPOA,
02:30with unlimited oil and petrochemical sales at market prices.
02:34Some experts have assessed that this article alone
02:36could deliver $60 to $70 billion a year directly to Iran.
02:42That is the part of the deal that basically doesn't require Iran
02:47to do anything except sign on the dotted line.
02:49That's right.
02:50That's right, Abby.
02:51I mean, I think that there is a real concern on the face of it.
02:56I mean, you know, I've read the 14-point document.
03:02The administration is saying actually confusing things.
03:06They're saying we shouldn't take the text of the published 14 points seriously.
03:13Why?
03:13Because there have been back-channel commitments by the Iranians.
03:17They call it a political document.
03:19They say they have a gentleman's agreement with the Iranians.
03:21Right.
03:22Now, unfortunately, there's a kind of misunderstanding of how things work in the Middle East.
03:28In the Middle East, what people say to you in private, in English, is usually irrelevant and meaningless.
03:36It's only what they will say in their own language publicly that actually counts.
03:43So it's actually the opposite of the U.S.
03:45You know, I don't want to insult any politicians here, but politicians in the, you know, well, you know, politicians
03:53typically, you know, they're criticized for lying in public, but telling you the truth in private.
03:59In the Middle East, it's exactly the opposite.
04:02They will actually say the truth only in public, but in private, they'll say whatever you want to hear.
04:08So until we actually see what the terms are and how the negotiations go forward, on the face of it,
04:17you know, first of all, I wouldn't trust those back-channel and those commitments.
04:22We'd have to see what they are on paper because that kind of vagueness is exactly where Iran is an
04:29expert at basically using ambiguity for their own purposes.
04:33Yeah. Let me play what President Trump said about Iran's new leadership.
04:38He seems to think that he's gotten a new crop of people that have changed their ways.
04:44Listen.
04:46They have a new group of leaders that I think is, actually, I think they're smarter.
04:51I think they're very smart.
04:53I think they're far less radicalized.
04:55And I think they're, I think they're really good.
05:01They love their country.
05:02You know, you talk about regime change.
05:05Nobody will say that.
05:06But I guess that's, look, their one set of leaders is all gone.
05:10Their second set of leaders is all gone.
05:13Their third set of leaders is a little bit gone.
05:16But for the most part, and frankly, I think that's regime change.
05:20I think they're going to behave much differently.
05:24So, Bakari, I'm not sure what, on what basis he's saying that, because when you read the deal, you can
05:30see how Iran has gotten a lot of what they wanted out of this, in this negotiation.
05:35I mean, I think to be extremely plain and clear, we went into the war in a posture where Donald
05:43Trump lied to the American public repeatedly about destroying or obliterating their ballistics efforts, going in and deteriorating their nuclear
05:52arsenal.
05:53At the end of the day, we lost American lives and soldiers.
05:58We paid the Iranian government $300 billion in reparations.
06:04Well, we haven't paid that yet.
06:06We will.
06:06But it is a fund that would be a stop.
06:09It was a fund. Okay.
06:09We spent $30 million or $29 million in fighting the war.
06:14We've lifted sanctions on Iran.
06:16And let me just say something.
06:17Very rarely do you get Bakari sellers, Trey Gowdy and Nikki Haley, like all great South Carolinians, singing from the
06:24same sheet of music on the fact that Donald Trump lost the war.
06:28I mean, let's be extremely clear.
06:30I mean, when people watch this show, they watch it for the exchange of ideas and the breadth of honesty.
06:35But there's not one person who can come on this show and say that our objectives were met.
06:41Barack Obama went in.
06:43And I have a ton of friends who tell me all the time that the deal was not as strong
06:49as they wanted it to be.
06:51But we spent about $1.8 billion.
06:53A lot of that was unfrozen Iranian assets.
06:57We actually were able to secure 98% of their enriched uranium.
07:04They were further away from a nuclear weapon than they are today.
07:09That may not have been the 100% success that people wanted.
07:13But Donald Trump ripped that up and also ripped up our global standing.
07:18And we went backwards.
07:19So, I mean, he just asked, can anyone defend it?
07:23Can you?
07:23Well, I mean, first I would start with a series of questions.
07:26Who paid Iran $300 billion?
07:28Well, it's a fund.
07:29It will be.
07:30It's a paragraph.
07:30Hold on.
07:31As I explained.
07:32Hold on.
07:33No, no, no.
07:33Hold on.
07:34As I explained, the text of the deal establishes or it posits that there would be a fund that
07:43the United States would facilitate being established for the reconstruction of Iran.
07:47It suggests that the Gulf states would play a role in funding that fund.
07:52So, there are parts of it that are vague.
07:56But it promises to the Iranians up to $300 billion in funds to rebuild the country that
08:02we destroyed.
08:03Although, I'll just add, it says the mechanism for the implementation of that will be finalized
08:09only as part of a final deal.
08:12So, that part of it is not going to start on Friday.
08:16Right.
08:16And so, this is where accuracy matters, right?
08:19You can't say on national television that the president is giving these concessions.
08:23Well, Tim, I corrected him on that.
08:25But there are other points about the one thing that isn't in dispute that happens as
08:33of today, apparently, is that the oil sanctions are lifted.
08:39So, that is happening right now.
08:42Absolutely.
08:42So, that's 60 to 70 billion.
08:45So, well, the point I'll start from is this total mischaracterization that Donald Trump
08:52lost the war.
08:53First of all, the one objective, the strategic objective that the president was very clear
08:58about from day one, was that we did not want them to procure a nuclear weapon.
09:03In that deal, one of those 14 points is Iran coming to the table and saying, we will not-
09:07Let me ask you.
09:08Can I ask you a very simple question?
09:09I'll just, I'll let you finish.
09:10Go ahead.
09:10Because I want you to ask and say, was that in the JCPOA or not?
09:13I know, but I didn't let you, I'll let you finish.
09:15Go ahead.
09:15Go ahead.
09:15So, that's in one of those points, right?
09:17Is that we don't get a nuclear weapon, a nuclear armed Iran.
09:21That was the one strategic objective the president had going into this, and that's victory.
09:26And so, I don't know why-
09:27Can I ask you a simple question?
09:28Sure.
09:28Was that in the JCPOA or not?
09:30Was it word for word or not?
09:31Actually, I'm glad you asked.
09:32The JCPOA actually just gave a landing strip for the Iranians-
09:41and complete, we will not produce, and we will-
09:44Hold on a second.
09:44We will destroy our-
09:45Hold on a second, Tim.
09:46Hold on a second, Tim, and before you jump in, Stephen, hold on, before you jump in, Stephen,
09:52the JCPOA said that Iran would under no circumstances ever obtain a nuclear weapon.
09:59And, in fact, this deal contemplates that, because what it says is that Iran reiterates
10:05what they say has been their longstanding stance, that they would not have a nuclear weapon.
10:10Now, I think what you're referring to is the fact that the JCPOA had sunset provisions-
10:15Correct.
10:15...for the limits that they had on nuclear enrichment.
10:18That is true.
10:19That's right.
10:19However, you also have to acknowledge-
10:21Thank you.
10:22...that this deal has absolutely zero provisions when it comes to the fate of Iran's nuclear enrichment program,
10:29and its nuclear weapons.
10:30No, that's not true, Abby.
10:31This deal, this deal is performance-based.
10:34But-
10:34Yeah, yeah, yeah.
10:35But what are the markers?
10:37Hold on.
10:38But what are the markers, Tim?
10:39If the Iranians-
10:40If the Iranians start producing a nuclear weapon again, if there's evidence of that,
10:43they have to allow the proper regulatory authorities in the country-
10:46But hold on-
10:47And if they report that something otherwise is happening, we'll pick back up.
10:49But hold on a second.
10:50This deal doesn't say Iran will never be able to enrich uranium in its borders.
10:56You know what it says?
10:57It says that we'll determine at another date the fate of enrichment in Iran,
11:03which suggests that this deal is contemplating that Iran could enrich.
11:08Now, President Trump was even more explicit in an interview a couple of days ago with The New York Times,
11:13and he said, yeah, maybe we might have a cap.
11:16That's maybe it's around 3%, the same cap that existed in the JCPOA.
11:21So, look, I get the sunset provisions.
11:26But when you have a document that it basically says, we'll figure it out later,
11:30you can't tell me that those are benchmarks.
11:33Those are- that's just kicking the can down the road.
11:35So, I would say this, that I think it's false to say that they weren't developing nuclear weapons because they
11:41were.
11:42So, whatever Obama did, it wasn't-
11:44That's not what I said.
11:45In fact, to be completely clear, I said they were further-
11:48They were further away in 2016.
11:49That's still not true.
11:50That isn't true either.
11:52So, they were-
11:53We know that they were moving very aggressively ahead with developing a nuclear weapon,
11:57and that was one of the greatest dangers on the planet.
12:00So, for you all to say he accomplished nothing, I think, is absurd.
12:03What did he accomplish?
12:04We've moved them-
12:05And, by the way, Trump has been very clear.
12:07What did he accomplish?
12:08Be clear with-
12:08What did we accomplish?
12:09We have denuclearized-
12:11No, we haven't.
12:12Can we talk about-
12:13You haven't even had their nuclear-
12:14There is no one-
12:15And Trump has made a clear-
12:16Based on what?
12:17If they continue to try to develop a nuclear weapon, we will bomb them again.
12:21Right.
12:22Because the bombing worked.
12:23Well, one of the realities is-
12:25I mean, the one difference right now, practically because of the bombing,
12:28is that currently, as far as we know, the centrifuges inside Iran are not spinning.
12:34That is to say, they were under Obama, and I agree with you.
12:37I think there was a lot of ambiguity.
12:40But I think that also, I mean, you know, I think we should maybe just leave the JCPOA behind.
12:46I think it was part of a different world.
12:49That's true.
12:49For me, it was a world before October 7th.
12:52I've said this on this show before.
12:54I think October 7th changed the rules of the game in the Middle East in terms of geopolitics.
13:00A JCPOA-type agreement just cannot survive.
13:04In fact, the reason I think we got into this war, and as you know, I'm critical and agree with
13:12the president in terms of,
13:13I think there was a strategic rationale for going in at some point.
13:19But I think that the execution and the planning was badly bungled, and we're paying the cost right now.
13:25So, one of the things, Kian, that we've talked about with you is the ballistic missile component of this.
13:29And I just want to play what the administration had been saying about ballistic missiles and what they're saying now.
13:35Listen.
13:37They've already developed missiles that can threaten Europe and our bases overseas,
13:42and they're working to build missiles that will soon reach the United States of America.
13:48We're going to destroy their Navy.
13:50We're going to destroy their Air Force.
13:51And we are going to significantly destroy their missile launchers so they can never hide behind these things to get
13:57a nuclear weapon.
13:57This operation is a clear, devastating, decisive mission.
14:02Destroy the missile threat. Destroy the Navy. No nukes.
14:06Well, what am I going to do?
14:08Am I going to let Saudi Arabia have missiles, but they can't have them?
14:12Yes, sir.
14:13It doesn't work that way, you know?
14:16It doesn't work that way.
14:17And missiles aren't the problem.
14:18Missiles, they hurt a little location, but they don't blow up the planet.
14:25I mean, it's – what can I tell you?
14:28It's – look, I mean, except planning and –
14:31Look, knowing to do what I think, to do the right thing is one thing,
14:35but knowing how to do it right is a different thing.
14:38That's very true.
14:39And, you know, and I'm in the position that it was – you know, maybe it wasn't the right time
14:44to do it,
14:44but at some point I felt that the war was inevitable.
14:48And I think this is kicking the can down the road.
14:52Disagreement.
14:52You know, has Trump – I mean, the whole rationale, just to be clear, actually,
14:57the – more – even more so than the nuclear rationale, because, you know,
15:01last year when they did the bombing, it was actually to bury the nuclear material, right?
15:05The rationale for this operation was to take the ballistic missile threat off the table
15:11so that they could no longer use ballistic missiles as a shield for their nuclear program.
15:16Now you have the president saying, well, why can't they have ballistic missiles?
15:21Everybody else in the neighborhood has them.
15:23How does – how do they justify that at this stage?
15:26I think it just shows there was no clear objective from the beginning.
15:30I think the president and the administration sold this war in very large terms.
15:35And there's a middle ground.
15:36There are people who will say, look, we understand that Iran is a threat,
15:39but the president added so much to it.
15:41I mean, let's talk about – we're not even talking about the human rights element
15:44that was added at the beginning.
15:45He created a moral argument for going into Iran.
15:49He wanted an entire regime change.
15:51And I would now ask, are the people in Iran safer, more freer, better off,
15:56or have we completely lost that because we used it?
15:58But the regime was killing thousands and thousands of people.
16:01But the regime has – has the regime changed?
16:03We've cut off one head and then nothing's brought it up.
16:05No, no, no, no.
16:06The regime has not changed.
16:07It actually got younger and angrier.
16:11Well, we'll see. We'll see.
16:12But it's a theocracy and you can't bomb away to a democracy.
16:15It doesn't make sense.
16:17But regime change was never this president's objective.
16:19Yes, it was.
16:21He literally said on the night of the bombing.
16:23He literally said on one of the Israelis, maybe, but that was never one of the objectives of the president.
16:27We've gone through this before.
16:28He said on the night of the bombing, the people of Iran, now is your time.
16:32Now is your time.
16:33You take back your country.
16:34Correct.
16:34He said then the next week.
16:36Yeah.
16:37I want to have – he said on the next week.
16:40Really?
16:40He said on the next week, I want to have a role in picking the next leader of Iran.
16:44I think I can be the one to do that because I've killed all the other ones.
16:47So they've put regime change on the table.
16:50That's what he said.
16:51Well, you don't know what he did say.
16:51The president never said because I killed all the rest of them.
16:54That was not his word.
16:55He said the United States bombed the rest of them.
16:58I'm sorry.
16:59Abby, let me –
17:00We're going to come back after the break, okay?
17:04Let's push pause on this conversation next for days Trump and Vance have been calling leaks
17:08propaganda, but the agreement confirms most everything that they denied.
17:13Plus, the president tries out a new spin.
17:16He's saving the economy from a depression by signing this agreement.
17:20We'll debate that next.
17:28Tonight, the Trump administration's PR crisis on the Iran agreement is intensifying.
17:33This week, as aspects of the deal leaked, J.D. Vance, the vice president, made the rounds
17:37on TV to blame Gulf allies for the botched rollout and downplaying concerns by accusing
17:43critics of spreading misinformation.
17:47What really bothers me and frustrates me and is unexpected
17:51when the American media literally picks up talking points and propaganda from the RAGC
17:57that has no support in the text of the agreement that we've actually negotiated
18:01and no basis in reality?
18:05So, don't take my word for it because we've been covering this all week,
18:09but here's Eric Erickson today.
18:10When I pointed out things in this deal the other day,
18:12several administration defenders insisted that those things would never be in the deal.
18:16Now, they're in the deal, and the same people insist it's a great deal.
18:21Stephen, why did they spend days denying that there would be a $300 billion fund,
18:26denying that there would be sanctions relief?
18:28And those things are in the deal.
18:31Well, I don't have a good explanation for that.
18:33I know that, you know, Trump wanted to get this over with.
18:37He, I do think there was a, you know, I know we're going to talk about this a little later,
18:41I think he was concerned about the impact this is having on the U.S. economy,
18:44and he wants to get it turned around as quickly as possible.
18:47So, he once wanted to bring this to an end with the provision, you know, as I understand it,
18:52I haven't read all that, but the most important provision of this is they will not gain a nuclear
18:58arsenal.
18:59And that seems to me to be a pretty important objective.
19:02But there are no mechanisms stated here in terms of intrusive inspections, 24-7 inspections.
19:09I mean, I assume that that's something that will come and will be discussed during the 60-day period.
19:14But frankly, I mean, I think that what it looks like to me is that the Iranians have, you know,
19:20they flanked, they did a flanking operation,
19:23they found the soft underbelly of the U.S. military,
19:26they controlled the Straits of Hormuz, even though they're a weaker power.
19:31And President Trump was simply unwilling, not incapable, but unwilling to spend more resources,
19:41possibly American lives, more money.
19:44Do you think he should have?
19:46I think that having gone down that road of starting a war to achieve the three goals that he stated,
19:56I mean, I, my reading, it was quite consistent from the beginning.
20:01He said missiles, you know, it was enrichment, missiles, and proxies.
20:06And that is something, by the way, I mean, I did bring the, I mean, the text of those three
20:10things
20:11were exactly the three items that President Trump stated in the executive order he made in,
20:18when he came back in office and reinstated maximum, you know, the maximum pressure.
20:23So, so he, he's being focused on that.
20:26So I think that, yes, I mean, I think they were close to like the 20-yard line.
20:30And to achieve those war aims, I think that he could have gone further.
20:34The double-dial, basically.
20:35Yeah, he could have gone further, but he decided not to.
20:38So, you know, in addition to denying some of the monetary components of this deal,
20:44there was a lot of sort of hemming and hawing about what the,
20:47the deal was going to say about the enriched uranium.
20:50And I just want to play, again, there's, there's a lot of before the deal and after the deal.
20:55Here is what they used to say about, you know, the nuclear material and enriched uranium being a red line
21:02and what President Trump is saying today.
21:07Do you want the enriched uranium before you can end this?
21:09We want no enrichment, but we also want the enriched, enriched uranium.
21:13One of your red lines is they have to renounce having their nuclear ambition.
21:17Do we have to get back the highly enriched uranium?
21:20Is that a red line for a deal?
21:21Yes.
21:22Do you really feel in your heart of hearts that you can stop Iran from enriching uranium and never build
21:28a bomb?
21:29Oh, a hundred, a hundred percent.
21:32Okay.
21:32They're going to stop.
21:33And they told me, the Iranians told me, and I deal with them, and they said that we're going to
21:38get the dust.
21:39We've been pretty tough on that.
21:41You know, it's also, it is a little hard, though, when you say that somebody wants it, other people have
21:46it, other adjoining states have it,
21:49and you're not letting them have it for purposes of electricity or things like that.
21:53It's always a little tough.
21:54You have to use a little common sense.
21:58Okay, so just so you're aware of what's actually in this MOU, the Memorandum of Understanding, they're not going to
22:05get the dust.
22:06They are going to dilute the dust.
22:08That's what it says.
22:09Now, you can give them credit for getting Iran to sign on to something that says,
22:13here's what we're going to do with the nuclear material that you have already.
22:17But it doesn't say we're going to, you're going to let us in to retrieve it and take it out
22:22of the country.
22:23And in fact, on the question of just, are they able to enrich?
22:27Remember, he told Caitlin, you, we want no enrichment.
22:31The deal says, we'll talk about enrichment.
22:34And then he said there in that, in that quote, maybe they might need to enrich for other purposes.
22:40That is, I think, something that for many conservatives has been their red line on Iran.
22:45Can I just make a comment about this, Richman?
22:48I was following very closely the 2015.
22:54The JCPOA made one, I think, concession, which they shouldn't have done to the Iranians,
23:00which was that they included in the language the idea, the demand by the Iranians,
23:06that we have a right to enrichment on Iranian soil.
23:10Actually, under NPT, the non-proliferation treaty, no country has a right to enrichment.
23:18The NPT gives countries a right to nuclear material, which they can use for civilian purposes.
23:25But it doesn't give anyone a right.
23:27So did you read this the way I did, which is to say that we are conceding, as the United
23:32States,
23:33that we're going to have a conversation about that.
23:35We're not saying no enrichment.
23:38We're saying, oh, we can talk about it, and maybe you can enrich up until this level.
23:41Again, that's exactly right, that this is something that was, for a long time, a red line.
23:48And that is, to me, one of the biggest concessions for Iran,
23:52because they believe they have a right to enrich.
23:54And we're basically saying, you might.
23:58Abby, I think the political whiplash, to me, here is most astounding.
24:02If Donald Trump found the cure to cancer, people at this table would be upset about how he did it.
24:07People on the political left would go crazy about how he did it.
24:10We got into this war for a strategic purpose, and now the president has gotten us out of the war,
24:15gotten an end to the war, with a really good plan to do so,
24:18and a very clear win of a big victory on nuclear weapons.
24:22And we're sitting around the table complaining about it.
24:24And so, I think, of course, the details of this are going to come out.
24:28The president has a skeleton of a plan put together.
24:30There's a framework that's been put together via these 14 points.
24:34And I do think that more of the details are going to come out,
24:37more of the KPIs are going to come out as we continue to negotiate and go through this.
24:41But, man, it's just, it's whiplash up here, because when we were in the war,
24:45it was, oh, my God, five alarm fire, Trump got us in this war.
24:47Now he's getting us out, and beautifully so, and you're still complaining.
24:51The results don't match the cost of war,
24:53and that is honestly going to be a political problem for him as we get closer to the midterms.
24:57The cost of war in this case was Iran not having a nuclear weapon, full stop.
25:01The cost of war to people at home are American lives that were lost.
25:04Yes, absolutely.
25:05And when you go to war, having done it myself several times?
25:08I hear you.
25:09You do.
25:09And there is, and that's an unfortunate, I don't want to gloss over that point.
25:12That is an unfortunate aspect of combat and going to war against our nation's enemies.
25:17I think the president understands the gravity of that.
25:20I think, wait a second, I think as the commander-in-chief of the United States,
25:23the president absolutely understands.
25:25And I think if you want to compare when this president goes to Dover Air Force Base
25:30and did the dignified transfers of those bodies,
25:32he wasn't checking his watch like Joe Biden was and falling asleep.
25:35So, listen, let me finish.
25:37When you talk about the gravity of the issue with the president of the commander-in-chief
25:41understanding the gravity of American lives lost, that's it.
25:44So, yeah, no, I want to get back on topic because I heard,
25:48and I appreciate the regurgitation of the talking points,
25:51but we were talking about nuclear enrichment and them being closer to a nuclear weapon
25:55and possessing that uranium that we're talking about in making these nuclear weapons.
26:01And you brought up an amazing point, which, frankly speaking,
26:04I'm too far away from to understand, so you taught me something today.
26:07What I do understand about the JCPOA, which you said was a different time,
26:10and I agree with that wholeheartedly.
26:11October 7th did change the framework of the Middle East.
26:14However, there were provisions in place, there were checkpoints in place
26:19to make sure that that enrichment was maintained at a certain level,
26:23that they were backing away from that.
26:25And all we're simply saying is that that's not in place today.
26:28It will be.
26:29Listen, you are trusting the Iranian regime that has not changed by simply saying...
26:37No, I'm trusting Trump because the one thing he will never allow
26:40is for Iran to have a nuclear weapon.
26:42But my biggest problem is...
26:43So, for the next two and a half years as president,
26:45they will not have a nuclear weapon.
26:46I mean, we're not having...
26:48This is Israel, the United States, the Middle East, which you just said,
26:51because we actually agree on something,
26:52that Iran does not need to have a nuclear weapon.
26:55It's a worldwide problem.
26:56However, we actually had...
26:59And I'm going to just steal from Trey Gowdy.
27:01We actually had maximum pressure.
27:03We had sanctions on them.
27:05Today, today, they're able to go back and sell oil.
27:09They're charging money that we're paying for ships
27:12to come through the Straits of Ramos.
27:14Like, it's not only the pain on the American people,
27:17which we'll get to,
27:18but talking points do a disservice
27:21to the fact that we are not meeting the objectives
27:24that Donald Trump and Pete Hexeth,
27:26Marco Rubio has been quiet,
27:28have told the American public.
27:30All right, we're going to...
27:30We have to leave it there.
27:32Keon, thank you, as always, very much.
27:34Yeah, you taught me a whole lot.
27:35Oh, yeah.
27:35For teaching us all a little bit something tonight.
27:38Next for us, the president delivers a new defense
27:40for the agreement.
27:41To avoid another depression, he says,
27:44another special guest is going to be with us at the table.
27:46We'll be right back.
27:54Tonight, a new defense from President Trump
27:56and a new spin of why he says he wanted
27:59to get an agreement with Iran done as quickly as possible.
28:04So the one thing I didn't want to see is
28:05I didn't want to see economic catastrophe.
28:09If you kept this going, that could have happened.
28:11But all I know is every time we talked about
28:14the possibility of peace,
28:15the stock market shot up like a rocket ship.
28:18It never went down.
28:19They didn't like it.
28:21The people...
28:21You know, the stock market is more brilliant
28:24than anybody there is,
28:25including the people on this stage,
28:28other than me, of course.
28:31Joining the table, John Perdue,
28:33the executive editor at The Economist.
28:35And, John, we've been talking four months
28:38about the impact that this war has had
28:41on the economy, the price of gas skyrocketing.
28:45A month ago, it was $4.51.
28:47It's come down a bit to $4.03.
28:50But that's still over a dollar a gallon
28:52more than it was on February 28th of this year
28:57and almost more than a gallon more than it was a year ago.
29:00So it seems like, yeah,
29:02if Iran wanted to put pressure on the world economically,
29:06they absolutely succeeded.
29:07I think that's right.
29:09I think they've discovered in the course of this war
29:11how much leverage they have.
29:13And I think there's some pretty solid economic analysis there
29:15from President Trump.
29:17You know, had this war continued,
29:19had the oil been unable to get through the Strait of Hormuz,
29:22that's 20% of the world's oil supply
29:26flows through there.
29:28You know, you shut that down indefinitely,
29:29and I don't know about economic catastrophe,
29:31but it would look pretty bad.
29:34And so, yeah, the president thought going into this war
29:37he had the leverage.
29:38I think it turns out that he didn't.
29:40I think he panicked a little bit.
29:41I mean, no, because the economy,
29:44well, the economy is doing really, really well right now,
29:47really well.
29:48And so, you know, you look at record stock market,
29:50you look at what's happening in manufacturing, construction,
29:53we're seeing incredible productivity gains in inflation.
29:55There's no doubt about it.
29:56The inflation rate's going to come down very rapidly.
29:59In fact, we may have close to zero inflation in a few months,
30:02especially if the gas price comes down.
30:04But only if the gas prices come down, Stephen.
30:06What's that?
30:07But only if the gas prices come down.
30:08The inflation...
30:09But that'll help a lot.
30:11No, no, no, but I'm saying...
30:12But what I'm saying is,
30:13and you guys can hash this out,
30:15but the inflation that we've experienced
30:17in the last two months have been driven by gas prices.
30:19No question about that.
30:20So in order for that to reverse itself,
30:23the gas prices do have to come down.
30:24And they will.
30:25And they are coming down.
30:26But that's why Trump felt so much pressure
30:29to get this.
30:30Except my point is they were coming down anyway.
30:33And so I don't...
30:34In other words,
30:35he may have panicked and said,
30:37oh, I need to have this deal
30:38to make the economy strong.
30:40And my point is it's strong.
30:41I mean, the most amazing thing
30:43is how durable and resilient
30:44the U.S. economy has been,
30:46despite the fact that the oil price
30:47went up to $100 a gallon.
30:49I think there's some truth to that.
30:51I mean, the president's point
30:53about the stock market is correct.
30:54You know, people are in a frenzy
30:56about AI stocks and all of that.
30:57But I do think that if you shut off
30:5920% of the world's oil supply indefinitely,
31:02that has an effect.
31:03And even with the memorandum of understanding
31:07we have now,
31:08the price of oil is not going to go down
31:10to the level it was before the war.
31:12It will remain elevated
31:13because it's going to take quite a while
31:14to get the oil flowing through the straits.
31:17You know, it's full of mines
31:19that have been placed there by the IRGC.
31:22It needs to be demined.
31:24You know, there's a whole load of ships
31:26that need to get out there.
31:27So it'll take a while for us
31:28to get back to where we were.
31:30And most of the forecasts I've seen
31:31suggest that by the end of the year,
31:33the oil price will be, you know,
31:37$10 a barrel.
31:38Can I just ask you a little bit more?
31:40Higher than it was pre-war,
31:41which is not a crazy amount.
31:43But it's $74 right now.
31:44Yeah.
31:45So it already is.
31:46Can I ask you two smart fellas
31:47a question real quick?
31:48I mean, I know that your economic indicators
31:50that you're using are things
31:51like the stock market.
31:52No, no, I'm not.
31:53But I'm not, I'm listening.
31:54I'm talking about people's income.
31:56Well, I'm talking about people
31:57from Denmark, South Carolina,
31:58where I'm from,
31:59who are paying higher grocery prices
32:00because of the war,
32:01the cost of fertilizer went up.
32:03So the cost of consumer goods.
32:05How about this?
32:06The cost of electricity
32:06is at a price point
32:08where people are paying more
32:09for electricity right now
32:10than they have been.
32:11So when you look at these common markers,
32:13and I'm not talking about the ones
32:14that you all are talking about,
32:16which are very intricate
32:17and the NASDAQ and the market.
32:19I'm talking about people
32:20who right now, for example,
32:22this is a, this is very sensationalized.
32:24So forgive me for,
32:25for bringing it to this level.
32:26But the, you know,
32:27a gallon of milk in South Carolina
32:29is $4.52.
32:30A gallon of gas is $4.
32:32The federal minimum wage is $7.
32:34So literally you have to work a full hour
32:37just to get one gallon of gas
32:38and one gallon of milk.
32:41So while you guys are talking
32:42about these economic indicators,
32:43I'm talking about the American public
32:45whose price of living actually went up
32:48because of this war.
32:49Am I missing a point?
32:50It did, but the average,
32:51the median family income
32:53since January 1 of 2017
32:56when Trump came in,
32:57I mean, when Trump came in
32:59for his second term,
33:00is up $3,000 for the median family income.
33:03So they're doing better.
33:05They are, even with the higher gas prices.
33:07But also, Stephen, isn't it also true
33:08that because of the inflation,
33:13inflation has outpaced wage growth
33:17for the first time in three years
33:18in the last couple of months?
33:19In the last couple of months, yeah.
33:20But I'm talking about over the full...
33:22But I'm talking about,
33:23we're talking about here,
33:25how has the war impacted Americans
33:27and how they're doing?
33:28There's no question it was negative.
33:30There's no question it had a negative.
33:30It's interesting because there's not
33:31a lot of questions you can ask Americans
33:33where you get 86% of people
33:36saying the same thing.
33:37Well, 86% of Americans say
33:40that the war has been bad
33:41for their cost of living.
33:4383% say it's been bad
33:45for the global economy.
33:46That is also,
33:47you look at there on the GOP side,
33:50that's still,
33:50that's three quarters of Republicans
33:52who agree with those statements.
33:54So, look, that is almost universal.
33:58People believe this war
33:59has been bad for their pocketbooks.
34:00And that is the political problem.
34:01And I'll tell you,
34:02when I worked in the Biden White House
34:04in 2022,
34:05my dad called me on my way
34:06into the White House
34:07and he said,
34:07talk to your boss and tell him
34:08I can't fill up my truck.
34:09And he's still saying
34:11the same thing today.
34:11The American people always look
34:13to who is sitting
34:14in that Oval Office.
34:15And that president
34:16has to answer for it.
34:17And it's a very hard thing to say,
34:19well, you know,
34:19it was about the missiles,
34:20it was about the drones,
34:21it was about the proxies.
34:22That just doesn't translate
34:24to every day.
34:25But that's,
34:25that's,
34:26under that,
34:27that we would never go to war.
34:28In other words,
34:29wars are bad for the economy.
34:30No, I understand that.
34:31But then it's how you communicate it.
34:33And the problem is,
34:33I just don't think we have
34:34a communicator
34:36as the commander-in-chief
34:37that you can rely on.
34:38And I think that people also see,
34:39and I misspoke on,
34:40on Saturday
34:41when I was on the table for five.
34:42I said that 1897
34:43had gotten these contracts
34:44when it was actually broken,
34:46had gotten contracts
34:47with the,
34:47with the defense department.
34:49So I misspoke,
34:50blame my,
34:51blame my head
34:52and my heart.
34:52But people are also seeing
34:53people profiting off of war.
34:55And I think that
34:56when people see
34:57them being unable
34:59to make ends meet
35:00and people are still
35:02profiting off of war,
35:03then for the,
35:04for the people
35:05who are watching at home,
35:06they see a fundamental disconnect.
35:08And I,
35:08and honestly,
35:09this is where we would also agree,
35:10I think, Stephen,
35:11and I'm trying to find
35:11some moments of common ground here
35:13because I like you.
35:13But I think that people see that
35:15as being not a Democrat
35:16or Republican problem,
35:17but a problem of a class
35:19of elitism
35:20that they don't necessarily
35:21identify with.
35:22And so when I'm talking
35:23to both of you guys
35:24about these issues
35:25that are really just,
35:26just table issues
35:27I'm talking about
35:28the women who wear
35:29the big hats
35:30who sit on the front row of church
35:31and when you hug them,
35:32you smell like Chanel
35:32number five all day long.
35:34But they're making these decisions
35:35about whether or not
35:35they pay their utility bills
35:37or get their prescription drugs.
35:39I mean,
35:39these are real issues
35:40that don't have anything to do
35:42with the volume of trades
35:43in the stock market
35:44because of defense stocks
35:45or anything else.
35:46We're going to hit pause here
35:47for just a moment.
35:47We'll resume after a quick break.
35:49A lot more to discuss
35:50on the economic impact
35:51of this war.
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