- 11 hours ago
Grant & Danny think it's time to take this team seriously. The numbers now have a large enough sample size.
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00:00How about the Washington Nationals?
00:03That was Dave Jagler on the call right here on the fan last night.
00:06Welcome back.
00:07Grant and Danny.
00:08Here's a few notes about the Nats here on June 16th.
00:12They are currently a playoff team.
00:15Three wildcard teams.
00:16Six teams make the playoffs.
00:18They would be the last team in the National League right now.
00:22Number one.
00:22Number two, they have the fourth best run differential in the NL.
00:25I think that's amazing.
00:26I do too, given their pitching and defense.
00:28Take the three division leaders out, the heavyweights, if you will.
00:32The Braves, who I think are the best team in baseball.
00:34The Dodgers, who have the deepest roster in baseball.
00:36And the Milwaukee Brewers, who have the Cy Young, hopeful, at the top of their rotation.
00:41Jacob Mizorowski, great pitching, complete team.
00:44We're in the NLCS last year.
00:45Those three teams, head and shoulders better than everybody else and run differential.
00:49But then, when you get to the wildcard conversation in the National League,
00:54all those teams' non-division leaders, that's the Cardinals,
00:57Phillies, Padres, Nationals, Cubs, Diamondbacks, Marlins, Pirates, Reds,
01:02all separated by three games.
01:04All of them.
01:06The team with the best run differential of the entire group is the Nats at plus 17.
01:11They're the number one offense, 5.47 runs per game.
01:15They're 27-19 since the final week of April.
01:18That's the fifth best record in the NL, a 95-win pace.
01:22Danny, they have the second highest win count above teams over 500.
01:26This Nationals team is closing in on the midway point of this season.
01:30They're closing in on game 75, basically 45% of the way through a big league season.
01:36And all they do is keep stringing together big run productivity and wins.
01:41And at some point, I got to stop sitting here saying the party's going to end soon.
01:46Because they look like they can continue to hang around as the schedule, which has been
01:51the hardest in baseball so far, by the way, lightens up a little bit.
01:54They're the only team like them, if that makes any sense.
02:00Everybody else that's got similar pitching numbers, defensive numbers.
02:05Look at who they're in the company with, GP.
02:07The Rockies, the Astros, the Twins, the Athletics.
02:11Actually, Athletics are having a decent season.
02:13But you know what I mean?
02:13For the most part, they're down there with the dregs of Major League Baseball when you
02:17look at some of their pitching numbers, right?
02:19And it's kind of this aberration.
02:22The way that they're doing it is they score a bunch and they give up a bunch.
02:25And you shuffle up and deal and they end up doing good enough because it's hard to score
02:29seven, eight runs a game.
02:31You just feel like inevitably there's something that's going to regress or slow down when it
02:36comes to this buzzsaw of an offense.
02:39And as long as that's not happening, this can keep going because this is now we're, as
02:43you said, we're approaching 75 games where they're doing something that I didn't know
02:46is entirely possible.
02:48If you told me, blind taste test challenge, regardless of what I thought the offense may
02:52or may not do, you go, they'll have the fifth worst team you are in baseball lead the
02:56league in errors by a long shot.
02:58What are we doing?
02:58And I'm going, man, that sounds right.
03:00Like that 65 win prediction that we thought.
03:03Say it again.
03:03Say those two things again.
03:04Fifth worst ERA in the sport.
03:06Okay.
03:06You are now a bottom five to seven team in baseball.
03:10Again, they're down there with the Rockies, the Astros and the Angels and some of the teams
03:13that are terrible.
03:15And they lead the league in errors by a lot.
03:17You're going to lose 97 to 102 games.
03:20There you go.
03:20There's your formula.
03:21And yet here they are, as you said, with the fourth best run differential.
03:23It doesn't make a lot of sense.
03:25It has been amazing.
03:26You got to give the field staff led by Blake Butera and his coaching staff, Fork Schulte,
03:31the hitting coach, Matthews and Doolittle, the pitching coaches, a lot of credit for this,
03:36obviously.
03:37This front office led by Paul Toboni and Ani Kolombi and the rest of the group of its
03:41Avengers, of evaluators that they put together, deserves a lot of credit as well.
03:46The technology that they have sunk their teeth into and spent money on has been key to this.
03:51The lifestyle that they're living in the way of analytics and R&D and getting players
03:56to buy in.
03:57All of it is key.
03:58All of it has been important.
04:00I think when you look at the numbers, this is fairly sustainable.
04:05I mean, if you wanted to tell me that by the end of the year, James Wood's not going to
04:09be hitting 282.
04:09He'll be hitting 265.
04:11And that he's not going to have a 975 OPS.
04:13It's going to be like 915.
04:15So he's going to come back to the pack a little bit.
04:18I'd buy that.
04:19I don't think it's a lock, by the way.
04:21I think there's a very good chance he hits 275 with a 950, 960 OPS.
04:25But okay, maybe he comes back just a little bit.
04:28He doesn't hit what he's on pace for, which is like 46 home runs.
04:31If you want to say CJ Abrams, who's currently hitting 285, is eventually going to hit, you
04:36know, for the end of the year, maybe like 260, 250 or something like that.
04:39And his 880 OPS is going to be more like 810.
04:42Okay, he comes back to the pack a little bit.
04:45Maybe Curtis Mead slows down from having an 800 OPS.
04:48But if we're going to bank on that, then you got to also bank on Dylan Cruz having a better
04:54rest of the season than he's had, 595 OPS.
04:56Yeah, regression can go two ways, and it should.
04:58Exactly.
04:59So there aren't things happening that are like crazy to assume they'll continue.
05:03James Wood is an MVP superstar type player.
05:06CJ Abrams is a perennial all-star.
05:08He was drafted sixth overall.
05:10He was a top five prospect in the sport for a reason.
05:13Curtis Mead is not some random dude that nobody's ever heard of that just walked through the
05:17door and started playing good baseball.
05:19He was a top prospect in a winning organization for a few years with the Tampa Bay Rays.
05:26It's cool what's happening, but I think it is time to start having the conversation, what
05:31if the shoe doesn't drop?
05:33Because I've said every time we discuss the Nats, yeah, but in a few weeks, dot, dot, dot.
05:39I don't think in a month we'll still be having this conversation.
05:43And now it's June 16th.
05:45Now we're closing in on, we're basically a week and a half, two weeks away from them being
05:50past the midway point of the season.
05:52So I ask you, Danny, as we are one month away from the all-star break and less than six
06:00weeks away from the trade deadline.
06:02Last time you and I had this conversation was like 20 days ago at the end of May.
06:06And if you remember then, we both kind of said, this isn't going to keep up.
06:10But now you fast forward almost three weeks and they're better than they were then.
06:14They have a better record.
06:15They played better baseball.
06:16They've continued that recent 95 win pace.
06:19So the new question I'll ask you is, if one month from now at the all-star break, they
06:25are still over 500, then what?
06:29Then you're two weeks away from the deadline.
06:31You're at 500 plus at the all-star break.
06:35Now what?
06:37I've said this before, and you guys would hate me if I was the GM of your team in general.
06:43I'm not altering my plan for, you'd have to be beyond remarkable for me.
06:49To kind of change things and add.
06:50I mean, the only thing I would do is maybe around the edges, maybe give up a ham sandwich
06:54in the minor leagues for a reliever that I think could help me or a couple other things.
06:58But I know that I can't replace what needs replacing to really compete.
07:01Miles Michaelis, for example, is a negative war pitcher for this team whose last two
07:05items has given up zero earned runs.
07:07There is nothing sustainable about him being effective for me.
07:10There's nothing sustainable about Andrew Alvarez coming up from the minors and piggybacking
07:14and hiding, and we're doing this, that, and the other.
07:16Zach Littell has been, looks like a heartbeat, a wavelength in terms of his performances.
07:21Up, he's down.
07:22One time he's shoving.
07:23The next time he's giving up a million earned runs and giving up 10,000 homers.
07:26Sure, but it's also not sustainable to have a 10 ERA like Miles Michaelis did.
07:30So the average of the season is very sustainable.
07:33Yeah.
07:34Which is like, what does he have, a 6 ERA?
07:36Yeah, pitching to a mid-five.
07:37And I'm going, I can't, in good conscience, give up anything to add to that group where
07:43I'm going, all right, it's a playoff game, we're going to do a Miles Michaelis after Dickie
07:47Love Lady.
07:48I'm not doing that.
07:49I just, I won't.
07:50So they can't win in the playoffs.
07:52But does that mean they shouldn't do anything?
07:55No.
07:55And my point is, I would add around the very edges of the roster, so instead of Paxton
07:59Schultz in a spot potentially in a September game I've got to have, it's, you know, a reliever
08:05with a better track record.
08:06I'll do that.
08:06But this is my point.
08:07That in and of itself, having that conversation.
08:09Oh, that's a big deal.
08:10Is a big deal.
08:11And nobody should be advocating for them to actually make a significant investment as
08:18buyers.
08:19That's the wrong idea here, because they're not ready to do that, because it is still
08:23very unlikely.
08:24Like, they could add to the clubhouse, they could get more talented, and then still fall
08:29off.
08:29And now you've lost some resources moving forward, and you lose out on the potential of the
08:35postseason this year.
08:36Because let's face it, it's not really about where you're at in the standings, currently
08:40the third wildcard team.
08:41I say this all the time.
08:42It's about the number of teams you're competing with.
08:44The Cardinals, the Phillies, the Padres, the Cubs, the Diamondbacks, the Marlins, the
08:48Pirates, the Reds, and the Mets are all currently within five and a half games of the Nationals.
08:53And I only include the Mets, who aren't very good, because they still play the Nats a bunch
08:57to control their own destiny there.
08:58But if you want to take them out of the equation, fine.
09:00Cincy, Pittsburgh, Miami, Arizona, Chicago, San Diego, Philly, St. Louis, that's eight
09:06teams that you are competing with, all jumbled up within three games of the wildcard.
09:12Most of whom are going to be buyers and are in win-now mode, and are going to be more
09:16aggressive
09:16than you are at the trade deadline.
09:18So you're not going to be able to necessarily keep up with the assets they're bringing up.
09:21But maybe Seaver King comes up and hits and helps you.
09:25Maybe Yohani Morales or Abimelech-Ortiz comes up and actually performs.
09:30And it's like getting some second-half addition.
09:33I would not trade C.J. Abrams if I'm over $500.
09:36Are you willing to say that?
09:38No.
09:39So you would still trade C.J. Abrams if they're too over $500 at the deadline?
09:42Yeah, if I got the kind of offer that I'm hoping for, then I still would do it.
09:47See, I'd be really careful about that.
09:49I know what it would do to the fans.
09:50I know they'd be pissed.
09:51I don't care about the fans.
09:52Well, I shouldn't say I don't care about the fans.
09:53I care about the fans.
09:54But that's not why I wouldn't do it if I'm Paul Toboni, to be clear.
09:58What I'm saying is I care about the clubhouse if I'm Paul Toboni.
10:02And good luck with that.
10:03I mean, we have seen analytics-led front offices like the guy's blanking on me.
10:09Toby, who's the dude that ran the Brewers that's now with the Mets?
10:11I can't think of his name right now.
10:15Front office executive runs the Mets.
10:17This is not complicated.
10:18That's going to kill me.
10:18He ran the Brewers.
10:20Toby, who is the guy that ran the Brewers that now runs the Mets when you covered Milwaukee?
10:25David Stearns.
10:26I don't know.
10:27I just kept saying it over and over again.
10:29World Cup's off.
10:30Those guys are locked in.
10:31Yeah.
10:31David Stearns is the name of the guy.
10:33Forum NBA commissioner, David Stearns.
10:34Yes.
10:34So, David Stearns, he blew up the Brewers clubhouse at one point when he traded Josh Hader at the deadline.
10:43And I still remember covering that over at MLB Network Radio where those players were livid.
10:48He lost the clubhouse.
10:49They were pissed.
10:49They completely caved in.
10:51Paul DeBoney should be careful about going in and trading C.J. Abrams while you're in the wildcard spot or
10:57while you are above 500.
10:59Doesn't mean it's the wrong thing to do over the next five years, but you're still building relationships.
11:04You're still trying to get buy-in.
11:06This game's about human beings.
11:07You're not going to get that much more for him.
11:09I don't think at the deadline than you would when there's more teams involved this offseason anyway.
11:13If you really want to trade C.J., you'll still be able to do it.
11:16So, like, I'm not going to trade Abrams.
11:18I'll just put that in that pile where I'm saying, no, I'm not willing to do that.
11:22I'm not going to be a buyer by any means.
11:24But could I have my cake and eat it, too, where maybe I add a controllable piece for the future
11:31who helps me in the short term?
11:33I keep saying, like, an expendable player like a Luis Garcia, if he stays hot, if he keeps performing with
11:38runners in scoring position and having quality at bats, could I dangle him and get a reliever from a team
11:44that needs a left-handed bat, let's say, who can hit right-handed pitching for the push?
11:49And maybe they've got some AAA arms that could come in here throwing 97 that I like their fastball shape
11:54or something.
11:55Like, that's something I would consider.
11:56Those are the types of moves I'm talking about making.
11:59It's not about this year.
12:00But if the side effect is I get help at positions of need this year from guys that are going
12:06to be here when I care more two, three years down the road, then that's, to me, exactly what they
12:10should be trying to do.
12:11Yeah, I think that's fair.
12:12But to the C.J. conversation real quick, again, I'm not doing it just to do it.
12:15I'm not unloading a toxic acid or anything.
12:19And in general, I care a little bit less about the clubhouse ruffling, I think, than maybe most folks do.
12:24They've already seen their buddies get sent down summarily and service time manipulated.
12:28And a guy like Joey Weimer is better than multiple players they have right now in their major league roster,
12:33but they're not doing it because it would cost them a little bit of money or you'd lose Drobit Vivas,
12:38so what?
12:39You'd lose Jose Tana, so what?
12:40But they've already kind of done some of that stuff.
12:42They've proven they don't really care about your feelings all that much.
12:45They'll say nice things to you when they send your ass down, but they'll send you down.
12:48So you're still building those relationships, and if you deem that Abrams is not going to be part of your
12:54core going forward for whatever reason, whether it's now the contract might be too much, whether he demands to stay
13:00at shortstop when that's not good for anybody, whether you still don't like his off-field personal habits, I have
13:05no idea why you do it.
13:07But if you get a great asking price and your timeline for being a championship team is a couple years
13:12from now, I'd pull the trigger.
13:14You're still going to get a great asking price in the offseason.
13:16Entirely possible, yeah.
13:17Not possible.
13:18I mean, you would.
13:20Would it be better?
13:21I guess slightly maybe, or possibly the answer is yes to that, but you're going to get a ton for
13:27C.J. Abrams whether you trade him in the offseason or now.
13:30You saw what they just got from Mackenzie Gore.
13:32Abrams is a more valuable asset.
13:35You'd be trading him at the same time in terms of the timeline with still two years to go.
13:42It is hard to me to make any argument that makes sense to me why you would trade C.J.
13:46Abrams in season if you're in a wild-card spot or if you're in an above-500 situation.
13:53Saboni acknowledged in a piece that Jesse Dougherty did for his new publication recently that he doesn't think that much
13:58about the past or what the fan base has been through.
14:00And I think that that's probably the right play as a new executive here.
14:04It's not your job.
14:05You can't legislate in the past, yeah.
14:07You shouldn't worry about that.
14:08It would do massive damage to the fan base, for sure, if they traded Abrams while rolling.
14:14He shouldn't care about that, but it's just a reality.
14:16It is, yeah.
14:17Someone should let him know that, whether he cares about it or not.
14:20He doesn't need to.
14:21Frankly, if he doesn't, that's probably the right way to go.
14:25But, again, I care about the clubhouse.
14:27Dylan Cruz got sent down and was kept down until after they were able to add a year of control.
14:32Now Brady House was sent down, which was kind of peculiar to me.
14:35He's still down, and there's no talk about bringing him back up that I'm hearing.
14:38I can't imagine he's going to be down all year, and they're going to save control with him, too.
14:42But if that happens, that would be a really strange look, in my opinion.
14:45You can only get so many of those bullets before we start to go.
14:50This is about people.
14:51You know what I mean?
14:52Like, we can't just run everything, like, employee number 14, go to that room over there and sit.
14:57We'll call you in four months when we get year of control.
15:01Like, so the trading of CJ while everybody's cooking?
15:05I don't know.
15:06I think that would be a tough ask.
15:08But let's open the phones on this.
15:09800-636-1067 is the number.
15:12800-636-1067 on Grant and Danny.
15:16Is it time to start buying in that the Nats can keep this up?
15:19And has any part of your outlook for what they should be doing close to the trade deadline changed based
15:25on how they're playing?
15:26That's the question on the fan.
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