00:00But I think we start off, Tom, you know, with the stars and with what I think is a pretty
00:06complicated league MVP market, at least early on, because the Stafford last year was a stunner.
00:18But in hindsight, really only because of the fact that he held up throughout the season, right? Stafford's health was
00:28this huge question mark coming into the season that I think talked a lot of people off the Rams.
00:33We knew they were talented going in. And Stafford stays healthy, wins league MVP. Okay, that tracks. What's interesting, Tom,
00:46is the Rams are the favorites to be the best team in the league. We know that, right? With a
00:52bullet. Best team, quarterback of that team usually has a huge leg up.
00:58So the starting the jump out for me is that there's a real gap between Stafford and the actual favorite
01:06in Josh Allen or even a Lamar Jackson.
01:09Yeah, I the thing I would point to is that I'm worried about Stafford's age. And then the second thing
01:15I would be worried about is the fact that I'm not sure based on how good the Rams are expected
01:20to be, especially on the defensive side of the ball, that he may not have the same counting stats as
01:24some of the other quarterbacks.
01:25Just because if the Rams are in control of a lot of these games, as they're projected to be favorites
01:30in a lot of these games, he may not need to put up the counting stats as some of the
01:34other quarterbacks.
01:35And that will just push him slightly further behind, not because he's not playing well. It's not his own fault.
01:40But if they're up by 20 some odd points, they're going to be running the ball.
01:43And if we're going to be seeing Allen or Lamar Jackson or Joe Burrow throw for 4200 yards or whatever
01:48it might be, and a lot of touchdowns, those will always take half a step above.
01:52But then Joe Burrow and the Bengals do they make the playoffs that that takes them half a step down,
01:56etc, etc.
01:56So I can understand why Stafford is not there at the top, because I just think Allen will have to
02:01do more as a quarterback from an accounting perspective and can also win the division and or win the conference.
02:06But I do agree with you that Stafford at least jumps out a little bit to me based on the
02:12number not being the favorite or the co-favorite.
02:15Yeah, and that's the thing. I'm not desperate to bet Stafford.
02:18I think, you know, I always about bounce back the you know, the opposite of that is to sell high,
02:25you certainly don't want to buy high.
02:27And when you think about what Stafford was last year and what he is right now, that probably is enough
02:31of a justification to why his number is not shorter.
02:34But the Rams are, I think, less than plus 250, Tom, to win 14 games.
02:41I understand what you're saying about the counting stats. But I mean, look, he's going to still put numbers up.
02:47I mean, look, last year, they just threw every ball from the one yard line.
02:51Now, maybe the Rams just won't do that. Like, like, that's an interesting element to this, Tom.
02:56And maybe even I obviously, you know, we've talked about your great fantasy background.
03:00Like, I wonder if that is a point of worry regression that Stafford won't throw one yard touchdowns constantly.
03:08And it'll be a little more Tyron Williams, Blake Corum in that area.
03:12It would. That was something that was something, you know, that came to my mind when specifically thinking about
03:17Devontae Adams and them not drafting a receiver in the first round, which we've talked about.
03:21We're not going to get back into that. But just based on Devontae's age, based on his touchdown percentage,
03:26that is going to regress. That's an extreme outlier.
03:29And then looking at league wide quarterback stats and Stafford's own career numbers about passing percentage rushes,
03:35a touchdown percentage inside the 20, inside the five, et cetera, et cetera.
03:38That is going to regress at a certain point. Can he still have a lot of those plays? Yes.
03:42But to see Devontae in his age getting up there and just natural regression, to see that number cut in
03:48half this year would not surprise anyone
03:50or should not surprise anyone. Stafford could still be great.
03:52And he just won't have nearly as many touchdowns just because just the efficiency, it just can't be sustainable.
03:58It's not a sticky stat year over year. That is something that is a clear outlier and do for regression.
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