00:00Let's bring in Yossi Mekelberg, Associate Fellow with the Middle East and North Africa Program at Chatham House.
00:06So, Yossi, great to have you. So, what do you make of the latest strike?
00:10And our correspondent just said that it may not lead to escalation on the ground. What's your take?
00:15Thank you for having me. I think we face a stalemate here,
00:19because it's obvious that the Israeli government, the Lebanese government,
00:25have common interest not to escalate. Actually, the opposite, to de-escalate the conflict
00:32and moving towards a long-term solution. But in this case, the Hezbollah and Iran are not.
00:39Now, suspicion that one side or the other won't abide by the agreement is natural in this situation.
00:46But it seems that there will be something behind it.
00:49If Hezbollah doesn't agree to ceasefire and they're negotiating, at the end of the day,
00:56what's the basis of any agreement, the UN Security Council resolution 1701,
01:02then it shows not only to Israel and the rest of the world, but mainly to the Lebanese people,
01:09that Hezbollah is more interested in continuing the conflict,
01:13not even seeing Israel withdrawing from Lebanon, because that's what keeps them relevant in Lebanese politics.
01:21And do you think the Lebanese government has the ability to assert control over its security matters?
01:29Sadly not. And I think what happened along the years, this is for decades,
01:34the Hezbollah became too powerful within Lebanon, held by Iran, both financially and also militarily,
01:47supplying them weapons, including rockets and drones and the others,
01:51which is stronger than the Lebanese army.
01:54But I think the trick here is not to fall into this trap of the Hezbollah.
02:00Because Israel, it's usually a modus operandi is to respond to things like this with huge force.
02:10This is actually the time to do the opposite.
02:12And to work together with the Lebanese government, try to empower them,
02:18together with other countries.
02:20The United States is the one that brokered and insisted on this fire, and rightly so.
02:26Countries like France, maybe other countries within the European Union,
02:30everyone that has influence and try to help the Lebanese government to take more and more control
02:35and face Hezbollah, because the minute that Israel is responding by killing more civilians,
02:42raising more villages, it plays into the hands of the Hezbollah and plays into the hands of Iran.
02:49And this direction should be reversed.
02:52And more broadly, how does this latest development affect efforts to de-escalate tensions?
02:59It makes it way more difficult, but also then it raises the question what Tehran is actually interested.
03:05Because on the one hand, Tehran says that any progress on negotiations towards more permanent ceasefire
03:16between the U.S. and Iran, by association or by extension with Israel, requires ceasefire in Lebanon.
03:25Now that there is a ceasefire deal on the table with Lebanon, it's both Iran and Hezbollah rejects it.
03:35So then it raises a major question whether Iran actually thinks, or the regime in Iran thinks,
03:42that they have the upper hand and any agreement is not good for them at that point.
03:47And they try to push and test the United States to the very limit.
03:51I think we are in a very, very dangerous point, watershed, in what's going to happen next.
03:59Thank you, Yossi.
04:00That is Yossi Bekelberg, Associate Fellow from Chatham House.
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