00:00So bring in Yossi Meckelberg, who's an associate fellow with the Middle East and North Africa program at Chatham House.
00:07Yossi, hello, with such vastly different messages on these negotiations.
00:11Can you actually assess if any progress is being made?
00:17Good afternoon. Thank you for having me.
00:20It doesn't seem that much progress has been made.
00:24We hear contradictory statements, not only between Iran and the United States.
00:32We hear contradictory messages from the U.S. itself, you know, from President Trump.
00:41And so I think that at the same time they try to create a reality.
00:47It's more about, you know, PR exercise between them.
00:51And try to put pressure then because there is probably an impasse in the negotiations.
00:58Both sides can actually reach not only an agreement, even the principle in which how they negotiate and what they
01:06negotiate about.
01:07And you see for one day, the Strait of Hormuz, Iran declared it's open and the next day it's closed.
01:13And one tanker was already attacked.
01:17What's the future of the enriched uranium?
01:19I think one of the problems is there is the clock is ticking when it comes to the end of
01:28the ceasefire.
01:29And both sides think what can they achieve until the ceasefire comes to an end if it's not if it's
01:37not renewed.
01:39Yeah, I mean, we've got, I think, four days left before that ceasefire ends.
01:43No confirmation that it's going to be extended.
01:45So who, in your view, needs a deal more?
01:51I think both sides need a deal, but they will go all the way to the brink because they need
01:57to go back to their own constituencies and say that they achieved the maximum.
02:02And one point they might not even be able to reach an agreement to find enough commonality there that will
02:11ensure for the Iranian regime is to ensure its own survival for the for for Donald Trump.
02:18Is to say, at the end of the day, I achieved what I wanted to achieve in terms of nuclear
02:24ballistic missiles, straight or foremost, supporting process, supporting the proxies.
02:31But I think because of the difference between the political system, probably the pressure is more on the United States
02:39because it came, it started the war together with Israel on the assumption of a best case scenario that will
02:47achieve all the objective within days, including regime change.
02:51Now, you know, we are approaching 50 days plus of this, and this is far from being achieved.
03:00A French peacekeeper has been killed in Lebanon.
03:02Hezbollah denies any responsibility.
03:04Do you believe the ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon will hold?
03:10I think it's a very fragile ceasefire, and we know it from the beginning.
03:15Bear in mind, this ceasefire was imposed in Israel by the United States.
03:20The Israeli government was not interested in this ceasefire.
03:24It was more an Iranian demand in order to open the Strait of Hormuz.
03:30And as a result, the United States pressured Netanyahu to agree to this ceasefire.
03:38Israel believes that, you know, it has an unfinished business in Lebanon, mainly disarming Hezbollah.
03:48Israel has legitimate concerns as far as the Hezbollah.
03:54Hezbollah is concerned, but at the same time, the idea that it will continue the war almost endlessly is only
04:01going to destabilize further Lebanon,
04:04unless the Lebanese government is capable of imposing its own authority.
04:10So I think we probably will continue to see hostilities there, too.
04:14So I think we will continue to see hostilities there, too.
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