- 5 months ago
On Thursday's edition of Felger and Mazz, the guys debated which of the NFL basement dweller's from last season has the best chance to make the playoffs this season.
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00:00FYI, Felger is right.
00:03Oh, so that's why you like the tweet.
00:05Huh? No, I didn't even, I'm just reading it. I didn't, I forgot about that part.
00:10FYI, Felger is right. Quick turnarounds happen all the time.
00:14Since 1990, a streak of 35 consecutive seasons. You have to admit, this is an incredible stat.
00:18It is, it's amazing.
00:1935 consecutive seasons from 1990 through last year, 2024.
00:24At least four teams that missed the playoffs the previous year qualified for the playoffs in that season.
00:33So again, 35 straight years, there have been four new playoff teams who make the playoffs in this given season.
00:42Okay, and I've used that as a backdrop to drive home something I've just, you know, harped on probably too much about, you know,
00:48one season turnarounds and why you can't expect it from the Patriots and all of that.
00:51But we played the game, said, okay, every year there's four teams.
00:56Who are going to be those four teams this year?
00:58And we asked to play the game.
01:00So I ask you, and this can open up sort of a league discussion to do a little bit more broad,
01:05talking about the league and who we like and who we don't like and all that stuff.
01:09So Maz, I'm going to ask you and Murray and the audience, 617-779-0985, to pick the four teams.
01:16Maz, what four teams will make the playoffs this year that missed it last year?
01:19Okay, I am going to go with the San Francisco 49ers, who I think underachieved.
01:25There's a lot of talent on that team.
01:27And so I'm going San Francisco.
01:28I'm going Dallas because I think Washington is probably going to come back to earth just a little bit.
01:35That team overachieved last year.
01:36The Cowboy, obviously the injury to Dak Prescott as well.
01:39So I'm going to go with the Cowboys.
01:42I am also going to go with the Bengals.
01:45And you'll notice a familiar theme here with the first three teams I'm picking.
01:50First of all, they all generally are pretty good quarterbacks.
01:53They have good rosters.
01:54Some of them are teams that had odd circumstances last year that derailed them.
01:58But they're generally some of the better franchises in the league, at least since Joe Burrow has joined the Bengals.
02:05So again, San Francisco, Dallas, Cincinnati, and the Jacksonville Jaguars.
02:12I'm going Jacksonville, and I'll tell you why.
02:14Boo.
02:15That division sucks.
02:17It sure does.
02:18Holy crap, does that division suck.
02:21So again, we're talking about Houston.
02:23We're talking Indianapolis.
02:25Who am I leaving out?
02:25There's someone else in there.
02:26Tennessee, who obviously had the number one pick.
02:29So the point is, the division's wide open.
02:32Somebody has to win that division.
02:34That's a theme with a couple of my teams.
02:35Somebody has to win it, and I'm going with the Jaguars.
02:38Okay.
02:39Murray?
02:39I am going Bengals because Joe Burrow is going to end up the NFL MVP, of which you could make an argument he could have won last year.
02:45Their defense is still going to be atrocious, but they'll be a tick better.
02:48That'll help them improve to 10 wins, enough to squeak in as a wild card team.
02:52Raiders call me a sucker.
02:53But I am buying in on a rejuvenated Pete Carroll, his enthusiasm, his expectations for this team.
02:59I think the foursome of Pete Carroll, Geno Smith, who I don't love, but solid.
03:04Say it.
03:04Max Crosby.
03:05Say it.
03:06Brock Bowers.
03:06No.
03:07I mean, Tom Brady, I guess, too.
03:09Tom Brady.
03:09I'm talking about on the field.
03:10I mean, I don't know how much Brady influence is really going to be involved in this team.
03:13Watch.
03:13Look, I think that's a good foursome.
03:17That's enough.
03:18They're going to be relentless.
03:19They're going to be better coached.
03:20They'll be the final wild card team in the AFC, and I think what is the best division in football.
03:25Falcons, because someone has to win the NFC South.
03:27I think the Baker Mayfield bubble is going to burst in Tampa now that he's lost his offensive coordinator.
03:31Liam Cohen, now the new head coach of the Jags.
03:34Seahawks, because someone has to win the NFC West.
03:36They had 10 wins last year.
03:38Solid defense.
03:38Yes, I have doubts about Sam Darnold on this team and whether or not he can repeat what he did last year,
03:44but this is more about the rest of the division.
03:46Matt Stafford's back is a disaster.
03:48Garoppolo's a slob who shouldn't even be in the league anymore as his backup.
03:51The Rams' secondary is garbage.
03:53Cardinals, they're the Cardinals, and I've waved the white flag on Kyler Murray.
03:56He stinks.
03:56And the window's closed on the 49ers, and it's time for Kyle Shanahan to go away.
04:00Those are my four teams.
04:01So, what both of you did is kind of outside of the spirit of what I think that stat and that history implies.
04:13I understand what you mean.
04:14You know what I mean?
04:15Tell us why we're wrong.
04:16Well, no, no.
04:16I mean, you're not wrong at all.
04:18But every year, someone who sucks is suddenly good.
04:23In the case, we all have the Bengals.
04:25Okay?
04:26I think they were 9-8 last year.
04:27They were, yeah.
04:28They obviously have one of the premier quarterbacks in the league.
04:30We're a Super Bowl team and a deep playoff team.
04:33They just had an off year.
04:35Sure.
04:36And so...
04:37So, you're talking about more like breakout teams.
04:39No.
04:39I think you're right to pick the Bengals.
04:40I picked the Bengals.
04:41Well, the Raiders were garbage.
04:43The Raiders, that's more along the lines, Murray.
04:45That's right.
04:45Okay?
04:46And I think the game is...
04:49And I'm not saying you're wrong.
04:50I'm just, you know, because I've got a couple of those teams, too.
04:52Like, I think that the Bengals and the Niners, and I know Murray's done with them, but those
04:59are kind of those teams.
05:00Those teams, the Niners, you know, have been good for seven years.
05:03Right.
05:03Exactly.
05:04And they just had an off year.
05:06So, they still have a lot of talent, and they still have a lot of things going for them
05:11that you would expect them to bounce back.
05:13And that, like, that happens a lot.
05:14But what also happens a lot is that someone who just sucks all of a sudden makes the playoffs
05:20the next year.
05:22And here's a second item from that Volan tweet that I think is just amazing.
05:28Again, the tweet begins, FYI, Felger is right.
05:33I'm sorry.
05:34Quick turnarounds happen all the time.
05:35In 26 of the past 29 seasons, Maz, 26 of the past 29, at least one team has made the
05:44playoffs the season after finishing last or tied for last.
05:47Okay.
05:48Okay.
05:49So, that, in addition to the teams like the Bengals and the Niners and the Cowboys are
05:55on that list, good teams that just had an off year, there's one suck bag, at least one
06:01suck bag, in most years, that comes up and makes the playoffs after, you know, picking
06:08basically first or second the year before.
06:11If I asked you that, I could ask you this before the season.
06:14But, or before the show, but I'm going to ask you now.
06:16Tied for last.
06:17Okay.
06:18So, I'm just, should I be, let's see, draft order.
06:21Stand by.
06:21I can give it to you right now.
06:22Okay.
06:22What is it?
06:23The three worst records in the league last year, they were all the same.
06:253-14.
06:26So, they were all tied for last.
06:28Cleveland, Tennessee, the Giants.
06:30Cleveland, Tennessee, and the Giants were all 3-14.
06:34Correct.
06:34Okay.
06:34So, I think the stat here was a team that made the playoffs after finishing last or
06:39tied for last.
06:40Okay.
06:40Oh, is that in the division though, or is that?
06:42I think that's an NFL stat.
06:44Okay.
06:45I think that's an NFL stat because, oh, no.
06:47Okay.
06:48Try this one.
06:49In six consecutive seasons, and in 21 of the past 23, this is actually the one I meant
06:54to mention.
06:54I'm sorry.
06:55No problem.
06:55In six consecutive seasons, and in 21 of the past 23, a team that chose in the top five
07:01has qualified for the postseason.
07:03Okay.
07:04That's the one that I meant to mention.
07:05Okay.
07:06You got it.
07:06So, that's not just bottom of, that's not just bottom of your division.
07:10That's bottom of the league.
07:12Okay.
07:13Tennessee, Jacksonville, the Giants, the Patriots, and the Browns.
07:16That's what I want.
07:17Of those teams, again, you said the top five.
07:24Say it one more time.
07:25Tennessee, Jacksonville, the Giants, the Patriots, and the Browns.
07:32You're going to only pick one of those teams.
07:33One of those teams.
07:34Jacksonville.
07:35According to this stat.
07:36Giants.
07:37Is going to emerge and make the playoffs.
07:39Giants.
07:41I'm going Jacksonville.
07:42Why?
07:43Because they get a horrible division, and they should be respectable.
07:46They've picked some good players over the last few years.
07:49This year, they obviously got Travis Hunter.
07:52But beyond that, you add it all up.
07:54There is talent on that roster.
07:56Jacksonville should be better than they are.
07:58They have a bad division.
08:00The quarterback is not god-awful.
08:02I don't know if he's great.
08:04But you put a decent team around them.
08:05They should be able to win some games.
08:07So I'm going to stick with Jacksonville.
08:08But if you ask me to put them in order, I would tell you that Giants or Patriots would
08:14be second.
08:15It's close.
08:16Giants, because they should have improved quarterback play.
08:18I still like that coach as one of the better offensive minds in the league.
08:20But more importantly, their pass rush is going to be relentless.
08:23And now that they've added Abdul Carter, they had a good pass rush already last year with
08:26guys like Lawrence.
08:28I know it's a tough division.
08:28But I am with Mazz.
08:29As much as I like Jaden Daniels and the Commanders, they're going to come down a tick.
08:32So someone's going to improve in that division.
08:33I could see the Giants squeaking in.
08:35Tennessee and Cleveland, I get no chance.
08:37Oh, please.
08:37Yeah, me either.
08:37No chance.
08:38And you know what?
08:40Every now and then, that team actually pops.
08:42Well, wait.
08:42If Cam Ward's good, then it all changes.
08:44You look at the rosters of these teams.
08:46Like, these are legit bad teams.
08:48Absolutely.
08:49This wasn't like, you know, the Niners having an injury and all of a sudden going from 13 wins
08:53to four.
08:54This is...
08:54No, no, no.
08:55These are...
08:56Jacksonville might be a little out of that.
08:58But between Tennessee, the Patriots, the Giants, and the Browns, that's some suck.
09:03Yeah, that's bad.
09:04Those are bad teams.
09:05Based on history, one of these five teams is going to make the playoffs.
09:09One of them.
09:10And so, I just...
09:12You know, I've said this at nauseam.
09:14The Pats could be one of those teams.
09:16They're favored in 11 games.
09:19So then, I think you've got to look at what teams have actual playmakers on them.
09:22On those suck teams.
09:24So, that's...
09:24Like, the Giants, Malik Nabors looks like a stud on that side of the ball.
09:27And then, defensively, they've added Carter, Dexter Lawrence, Brian Burns.
09:31Like, there's guys that can be game-wreckers.
09:33With Cleveland, you have...
09:35What's his face?
09:35The pass rusher.
09:36Yeah, Miles Garrett.
09:37Miles Garrett.
09:38Their secondary's kind of okay.
09:39I mean, what do the Patriots have?
09:41Maybe the quarterback?
09:41You hope?
09:42No, no.
09:42They don't have the roster.
09:44Christian Gonzalez?
09:44You would never look at their roster and say...
09:47But, again, we could go back in history.
09:51And it's always...
09:52It's tricky.
09:53Because in hindsight, you would look back and say...
09:56Yeah, they went from last to first.
09:58But, they got this guy, that guy, this guy, that guy.
10:01You know, they were set up to do it.
10:03Even though, if I asked you before the season about that team, you'd say three wins.
10:06So, that's not the game that you would play.
10:09The idea is, and if the Patriots were that team, we're going to look back and say,
10:14Well, it turns out, and I'm just going to, you know, pull a couple of things out,
10:19that DeMario Douglas was in his third year, and he popped.
10:21And Kayshawn...
10:22But guys like DeMario Douglas and Kayshawn Booty were in their second, third seasons,
10:25and they just emerged into the players.
10:27We didn't know they were going to be, but, you know, there it was.
10:31And, you know, say that across the board.
10:33Turns out that, actually, Michael Wen, who is a good offensive lineman,
10:36and he just had an off year, and he bounced back in year two.
10:38And Moses held it down, and we didn't see it at the time, but it was actually there.
10:43And that's what you can do with all these teams.
10:45I don't know why it's so unreasonable to think that the Pats are going to be that team.
10:48It's not that unreasonable.
10:49Again, you're hearing that a lot from listeners and, you know, e-mailers.
10:54But the fact of the matter is that if, you know, if things break right for them,
10:59I could totally see it happening.
11:00I said to you yesterday in the e-mail, I think the key guy to the whole thing is Campbell.
11:07He was the number four pick in the draft.
11:10So there is every chance he'll be okay.
11:14Like, you know, I just ā we didn't like what we saw in camp.
11:17It's early.
11:18But young players develop at their own rate.
11:21Some of them develop very quickly.
11:22You think he's the most important guy on the team?
11:24I do.
11:24I think that if Will Campbell becomes a good ā you know, and I say good player.
11:30If he becomes a functional NFL player, something in the range of average for his position,
11:36just in the range, their offensive line completely changes.
11:41I think it completely changes.
11:43And I'm not telling you I like Bradbury or that left guard is a guarantee.
11:47I'm just telling you, give me a left tackle and a right tackle,
11:51and I have a right guard who's a veteran, they'll figure it out.
11:54If the left tackle can play, the rest of it will be good enough.
11:58But, you know, so that's a huge variable for me.
12:01And so as much as we joke about the short arms, which are real, and everything else,
12:07I would tell you that he does have talent.
12:10He was the number four pick.
12:12If he's pretty good or he's respectable, they'll be a lot better than we think.