00:00Kyle, you believe that this new format that's in place basically gives Team USA a better
00:08chance. And so I guess my question to you would be, was this strategically done
00:13because it's in the United States this season and the ratings? I mean, there's conspiracy theorists
00:18who would believe that, or is it just simply put, they got lucky? They're in a format that makes it
00:23easier for them. I would say it does and it doesn't make it easier for them. I would say in
00:28the beginning it does. The reason for the new format is money. That's it. Top to bottom money.
00:33There's more games. They've gone from 64 games to 104 games, I believe, over the course of the World
00:40Cup. So you've just almost doubled the amount of sheer volume of matches in the tournament by
00:46expanding from 32 to 48. That's the only reason they expanded. For the U.S., it means that there's
00:51a higher floor. There's always the risk that the U.S. in the 32-team format could get eliminated in
00:57the group stage. That is almost impossible in this new format for them to be eliminated in the group
01:02stage. Only all fourth-place finishers in the groups are eliminated, and then four of the 12
01:09third-place finishers are eliminated. That's it. So they can finish third in their group and still
01:14have a two-thirds chance of qualifying for the knockout round. Now, where the group stage really
01:19matters when you put aside the fact that they're probably not going to get eliminated in the group
01:22stage. What really matters is setting themselves up for a success in the knockout stage. Here's the
01:28variance that they could enjoy. If they win their group, which is going to be tough because Turkey's
01:33a good team. If they win their group, they would set themselves up to face a third-place finisher in
01:38the round of 32. Remember, this year with the 48-team tournament, there's a round of 32, which there's
01:42never been before. And then in the round of 16, they would face the winner of Belgium's group.
01:48So Belgium, probably one of the most beatable tier one teams in this tournament. If they finish
01:55third or even second in their group, there's the chance that they could play Argentina in the first
02:02round of the knockout stage. So that's what you're looking at where the group stage matters. Are they
02:08likely to be eliminated in the group stage? Almost impossible. But it could make or break their
02:13tournament knowing that to me, now different people will say different things. The round of 16,
02:20reaching the round of 16 is the bare minimum for this team. Reaching the quarterfinals, something
02:25they've never done since 2002, would be an unmitigated success and reaching the semifinals
02:29would be a dream. So to get there, they have to have a good group stage.
Comments