00:00In the age of information, it can be hard to stay up to date on everything.
00:04However, this problem can be more difficult when information changes quickly, like when
00:08a bunch of new laws are passed.
00:10But what if you could avoid this problem by predicting future laws?
00:14Take the USA Supreme Court's ruling on Dobbs v. Jackson in 2022.
00:18Since the ruling was passed, hundreds of new laws on abortion have been passed all across
00:23the country, and many more are on the books each day.
00:25These new laws have dramatically altered the legal rights and responsibilities of USA
00:30residents.
00:31They've also made it more difficult for people to understand abortion laws across the country.
00:35Thus, I took a cross-sectional analysis of all 50 USAC legislatures.
00:40I sampled each state's gestational abortion statute and or statutes as of the end of 2025.
00:46Then I conducted a critical content analysis of the sample data and ran a linear regression
00:51between the use of the word choice and its dependence upon the respective state legislature's
00:56probability of liberal political partisanship.
00:59The results support the relationship that the closer a state legislature's composition
01:03is to 60% Democrat, the more likely a state legislature is to use the word choice more
01:09frequently.
01:10These results are significant, with a p-value of 0.043, as shown on screen by Model 1.
01:17When the frequency of choice is aggregated ordinarily, this model can explain up to 49.3% of the
01:23data variance, as shown by Figure 1.
01:26These results are also comparable for Model 2, wherein the closer a state legislature's
01:30composition is to being two-thirds Democrat, the more likely a state legislature is to use
01:36the word choice more frequently.
01:38Model 2 is statistically significant, with a p-value of 0.044.
01:43Last but not least, Models 3 and 4 both demonstrate statistical significance with p-values around
01:490.025 and no evidence of multicollinearity.
01:54Specifically, the frequency of the use of the word choice and a Democrat majority in a state
02:00legislature are causally correlated, with the latter's regression coefficient at 1.99 and the
02:06formers at 0.05.
02:09Thus, the results generated support the statement of a positive correlation between the aforementioned.
02:14Moreover, they support the statement that state legislatures, which approach a 60% Democrat
02:19majority, are more likely to use the term choice in a manner consistent with pro-choice groups,
02:25particularly when compared to a 50% or two-thirds Democrat majority.
02:29Thus, pro-choice groups receive more legislative statutes with their language in them when more
02:35state legislatures have a 60% Democrat majority.
02:38More generally, this analysis suggests that we can at least predict some aspects of future laws.
02:44We just have to stay up to date.
02:46Thank you for your time, energy, and consideration.
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