A short presentation of a quantitative article concerning three quantitative models of the different perspectives related to USA migration and its indirect causes. What causes migration? What are some short term and long-term solutions? What are the economic and labor costs of decreasing the supply of legal migration?
Ultimately, only we can decide the kind of world we want to live in.
------
Check out some of my research!
If you prefer to start at the beginning, read my first thesis
https://scholarworks.calstate.edu/concern/theses/bv73c947v
http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12680/bv73c947v
Or, you can go at your own pace
https://independent.academia.edu/FranciscoJLopezMont
#science
#research #study #studyscience #academia #academic #science #scienceexperiment #stories #storytelling #human #experiences #perceptions #perception #america
#university #graduate #graduatestudent #graduatestudies #thesis #communication
#usa #colombia #brazil #guatemala #elsalvador #peru #perú #bolivia #argentina
#california #paraguay #uruguay #chile #chilenos #venezuela #ecuador #chicano #chicana
#migration #border #bordersecurity #southernborder #borderpatrol #asylum #asylumseekers #migrationpolicy #migrationexperts #migrationstories #migrationservices #analysis #datascience #dataanalytics #dataanalysis #data #data #refugees #taxation #taxationsystem #individual #individualrights #humanrights #humanity #evidence #evidencebasedpractice #analyze #election #vote #voting #representacion
#immigration #migrantes #migrant #migrants #migrantlabourers #venezuela
#immigrationlaw #leyes #leyesdeinmigracion #policy #policyanalysis #politics #politicalnews #politicalscience #2026 #2026election #2026elections
#immigrationstories #riogrande #crossing #resources #labor #laborers #trabajadores
#undocumentedimmigrants #north #mexico #méxico #mexican #latinamerican
#undocumented #latino #latinx #latina #latinas #latinoamerica #latinoamérica #global
Ultimately, only we can decide the kind of world we want to live in.
------
Check out some of my research!
If you prefer to start at the beginning, read my first thesis
https://scholarworks.calstate.edu/concern/theses/bv73c947v
http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12680/bv73c947v
Or, you can go at your own pace
https://independent.academia.edu/FranciscoJLopezMont
#science
#research #study #studyscience #academia #academic #science #scienceexperiment #stories #storytelling #human #experiences #perceptions #perception #america
#university #graduate #graduatestudent #graduatestudies #thesis #communication
#usa #colombia #brazil #guatemala #elsalvador #peru #perú #bolivia #argentina
#california #paraguay #uruguay #chile #chilenos #venezuela #ecuador #chicano #chicana
#migration #border #bordersecurity #southernborder #borderpatrol #asylum #asylumseekers #migrationpolicy #migrationexperts #migrationstories #migrationservices #analysis #datascience #dataanalytics #dataanalysis #data #data #refugees #taxation #taxationsystem #individual #individualrights #humanrights #humanity #evidence #evidencebasedpractice #analyze #election #vote #voting #representacion
#immigration #migrantes #migrant #migrants #migrantlabourers #venezuela
#immigrationlaw #leyes #leyesdeinmigracion #policy #policyanalysis #politics #politicalnews #politicalscience #2026 #2026election #2026elections
#immigrationstories #riogrande #crossing #resources #labor #laborers #trabajadores
#undocumentedimmigrants #north #mexico #méxico #mexican #latinamerican
#undocumented #latino #latinx #latina #latinas #latinoamerica #latinoamérica #global
Category
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LearningTranscript
00:00Thank y'all for y'all's time. My name is Francisco Lopez. Today's presentation is modeled after part of my
00:082025 thesis, titled Migratory Sanctuary, State-Level Marijuana Laws in All 50 USA States, TCOs, and Mexican Migration.
00:20We'll get started by discussing some of the frameworks integrated within this thesis. Thereupon, we'll continue with a review of
00:28the research structure, methodology, and its results.
00:32Our phenomena of interest concerns the unique species, Homo sapiens. Early available records indicate that humans have migrated seeking safety
00:42and sanctuary in different places, as depicted online by the illustration credited to the USA's public broadcasting system.
00:48Our present-day lives are similarly filled with trillions of decisions, whose analysis has concerned the effects of roles on
00:56interpersonal behaviors, as well as the variation in inscriptions of the rational versus irrational dichotomy.
01:02While all decisions can thus be analyzed, decisions and decision-making patterns undertaken over millennia, like human migration, are more
01:11dependent upon resources needed for human survival, such as food, water, health, eusociality, and shelter.
01:17This is supported by mixed methods evidence from Infante Amate, Masi, and others, as noted on screen.
01:24Though many studies analyze the direct effects of laws on migrating folks, few analyze the indirect effects of USA laws,
01:31much less at the state level.
01:34Thus, we arrive at my analysis' main aim, to analyze the indirect effects of USA domestic laws within some of
01:42the USA's open system spheres.
01:44Specifically, in the USA, some migration laws attempt to control the supply of legal migration through use of numerical limits
01:51based on nationality.
01:53However, while this can artificially raise both the value and price of USA citizenship due to the USA federal government's
01:59monopoly in the supply of legal migration, it also results in monopoly deadweight loss.
02:04This deadweight loss of legal migration impacts labor industries in the USA, such as nursing, hospice, education, construction, and agriculture.
02:15As aforementioned, the decision to pursue migration is highly dependent upon the minimum resources needed for humans to remain alive.
02:22One of these, physical safety, is impacted by USA demands for marijuana from the USM.
02:27As noted by Gabrielo Baita's quantitative analysis, USA states ordering the USM which legalize marijuana have a statistically significant decrease
02:36in their violent crime rates.
02:38As such, this analysis' objective is to understand if marijuana legalization's negative relationship with violent crime results in the indirect
02:47effect of decreasing migration demand from the USM to the USA.
02:52Essentially, do increases in USA state-level marijuana legalization decrease migration from Mexico?
02:59While the primary hypothesis operationalized this objective relative to the net undocumented population of USM-born folks in the USA,
03:07this analysis employed a series of posteriori models, which compared and contrasted differing quantifications of USA state-level marijuana legalization,
03:15among other variables.
03:17The research was first conceptualized in 2023, since USA law provides protections on human subject research, which require permission from
03:26institutional review boards at universities, or IRBs, among other requirements.
03:30IRB classification as non-human methodology research was obtained in early 2024.
03:36Results were available in 2024, and by 2025, the thesis features were finalized.
03:42Though the thesis contained three quantitative analyses, today's presentation is based on the original thesis, second analysis.
03:50Thus, some on-screen references to this work may be labeled analysis too.
03:55This analysis thus sought to provide evidence of the indirect relationship between marijuana legalization in the USA and USM migration
04:03to the USA.
04:06As a result, this analysis addresses an existing gap within the academic literature on the spillover and or unintended effects
04:12of USA laws.
04:14Therein, I reviewed all 50 USA state legislature's legislative records in order to quantify the level of marijuana legalization in
04:22the USA at the state level.
04:25An example of this quantification is provided on-screen, along with the respective state statutes.
04:30Moreover, though academic analyses of marijuana have a variety of differing methods for quantifying marijuana,
04:37these variable operationalization methods haven't been contrasted previously.
04:41As a result, I operationalized the data collected in three differing ways and tested these through linear regressions.
04:48An example of one of these operationalization methods is shown on-screen, by table E2MA24.
04:54As visible on-screen, the longitudinal data collected and operationalized represented all 50 USA state statutes from 1990 to 2021.
05:04This analysis's primary results were statistically significant, as shown by the corresponding model's p-value.
05:1162.22% of the variation in the annual change of the total population of undocumented Mexican citizens in the
05:20USA was explained by the amount of states with statutes legalizing marijuana recreationally and or medicinally for the first time.
05:27The model's tolerance and variance information factors led to the rejection of the probability of multicollinearity.
05:34Moreover, the additional operational methods employed indicate that the relationship between the net annual change, as aforementioned, and the USA's
05:41state-level legalization of marijuana is sensitive to differences in defining the operationalization of concepts such as legalization, marijuana, and
05:49CBD.
05:51These differences extend to those amongst USA state statutes in defining the aforementioned terms in interstate, comparable terms.
05:59Other notable concepts include low THC.
06:02Thus, this analysis results, stemming from the model C2MA24, particularly when contrasted by those of alternative methodologies, support the statistical
06:12effectiveness of the continuous quantification of marijuana legalization, rather than an original operationalization method.
06:19Concerning some of these additional secondary results,
06:24Model 6 is a linear regression between the USA's state-level legalization of marijuana and the aggregate undocumented migrant population
06:32of Mexican citizens in the USA.
06:35Notably, Model 6 had the highest confidence interval out of all the models employed in this analysis.
06:40Moreover, although both Model 5 and Model 6 tested the same relationship, Model 5's inclusion of low THC both overestimated
06:49and underestimated the data, leading to a lower variability accounted for than the Trichotomous Model 6.
06:56Conversely, when employing a multilinear regression with all variables, including the year, total undocumented population as aforementioned, as well as
07:05both the Trichotomous and Quanticotomous models of USA state-level marijuana legalization,
07:09the year was the only variable with a statistically significant relationship with the annual change in undocumented Mexican citizens in
07:18the USA.
07:19However, the variability in this relationship is supported by both the operationalized data shown on screen and the model's heteroscedastic
07:27bias noted in the paper.
07:29Last but not least, Model 8 ran the same multilinear regression, but without the variable for the undocumented population of
07:37Mexican citizens in the USA.
07:38The confidence interval for the remaining variables improved, though at the cost of a 0.06 point decrease in the
07:46Model R-squared, indicating that the population of US citizens undocumented in the USA may explain some of the data
07:52which would not be counted otherwise.
07:55Last but not least, we turn to the thesis implications.
08:01For most, this analysis, Model MA24 provides statistically significant evidence supporting the rejection of the null hypothesis.
08:09However, the replicability of the results generated can be improved through the continuous rather than ordinal operationalization of the USA's
08:17state-level marijuana legalization.
08:19Secondarily, Model 6 provided evidence that, in direct contrast, the trichotomous operationalization may be more internally valid than the quad
08:28-cotomous.
08:29These results are particularly significant when limitations don't allow for the continuous operationalization of the USA's state-level legalization and
08:38or regulation of an object such as marijuana.
08:40Notably, the relationship between the aforementioned variables appears to be moderated by variables oscillating in years such as 2007, among
08:49others.
08:51Therein, Model 7, 8, and C2 MA24 provide support for Massey and Prang's model of migration's rational and irrational incentives.
09:00However, the successful application of Occam's razor and extension of its time horizon poses significant questions for the rationality versus
09:09irrationality debate,
09:10particularly due to the unexpected spillover costs created by USA domestic statutes, such as state-level marijuana legalization and or
09:20regulation statutes.
09:21Secondarily, Models 5, 6, and C2 MA24 provide evidence indirectly supporting Gavrilova et al.'s results on the relationship between USA
09:33marijuana legalization and violent crime rates.
09:35Finally, Models 5, 6, and MA24 all provide support for Molina's analysis on an authorized USM marijuana farms and their
09:46geographic correlation with USM states with the highest immigration rates to the USA.
09:54As such, Models 5, 6, and C2 MA24 partially quantify the long-linked causal chain qualitatively supported by Muñoz, Fuentes,
10:06and Obina between USA weapons, commodities like marijuana, and displacement.
10:12Furthermore, the analysis results present further evidence for the rationality versus irrationality debate, given the opportunity costs of USA weapons
10:21exports, the stigmatization of marijuana use, and the USA's marijuana demand.
10:26Therefore, future analyses should review the intersection between these, specifically including USA weapons exports and migration.
10:34Significantly, there is evidence to support the socialization processes inherent with an undocumented in-group self-identification and their causal
10:43link to their determining frames.
10:45For example, individuals fleeing violence from TCOs or criminal organizations may have differing perceptions on TCOs and the illicit products
10:54they supply,
10:56particularly when they are faced with constant framed associations to TCOs themselves, such as THUG or CHOLO.
11:04However, countries which legalize and or decriminalize non-lethal drugs, such as marijuana, can monitor and incorporate their financial transaction
11:13while decreasing both direct and indirect framing costs to the population.
11:16Last but not least, the co-production of public policy outcomes through the set of iterative frames experience is vital
11:25to the prediction of future outcomes.
11:27In the case of Latin America, the USA's military intervention passed in Mexico, Guatemala, Nicaragua, Honduras, Peru, Chile, Panama, Bolivia,
11:37Dominican Republic, Paraguay, Brazil, Uruguay, Haiti, Venezuela, Puerto Rico, and Hawaii, among other countries,
11:44have led to the spatial temporal dissemination of maladaptive behaviors, such as military human rights abuses, which mirror the more
11:51maladaptive governance behaviors employed by the USA, such as the use of torture techniques.
12:00Last but not least, this analysis results provide statistically significant support for the effects of differing taxation values placed upon
12:09differing individuals.
12:11Specifically, these tax law inequalities in the inscription of taxation values to citizens, among others, previously resulted in a comparatively
12:19greater value for USA citizenship over USM Mexican citizenship.
12:22Although the USA federal tax law inequalities didn't change after 2007, their international effects on migration were moderated, resulting in
12:32the aforementioned annual decreases.
12:33Similarly, this study quantifies Zikraff's theoretical inequality between nutritional and non-nutritional agricultural goods in Latin America, wherein non-nutritional
12:44agricultural goods, such as marijuana, may have an advantage over some climate change effects due to characteristics such as longer
12:51shelf life.
12:51Nevertheless, excessive dependency on autoliberalism, when combined with the horizontal dissemination of maladaptive behaviors, such as human rights abuses, provide
13:01evidence in support of the social construction of pan-ethno-racial identities, such as Latinx, Latina, and Trans-Latino, for
13:08the work of Gomez.
13:09It's also worth noting that the comparison of models dependent upon differing operationalizations also provide evidence for the support of
13:17the socio-legal construction of terms like marijuana, low THC, and CBD, among others.
13:23In particular, the lack of interchangeability between differing statutory definitions provides evidence of the need for the quantification of qualitative
13:35data.
13:37Thus, understanding the indirect spillover effects of USA domestic statutes, such as state-level marijuana statutes, can result in evidence
13:48-based statutory changes, indirectly alleviating gridlocked political and legal systems, such as the USA's migration supply.
13:57My name is Francisco. You can find a link to my thesis through either QR code, which you can scan
14:02by opening your camera, pointing it at the code, and pressing on the code on your camera screen until the
14:07hyperlink appears.
14:09You can also find it linked on my ORCID, as listed on screen. Thank you all for your time, energy,
14:15and consideration.
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