00:00Rivers have always held a central role in the flow of civilization.
00:04They were pivotal to early societies.
00:06They were sacred.
00:07But they can also be deadly.
00:09Victerma de las Sanchaseros and her two children lost their lives trying to enter the USA.
00:14Unfortunately, every year thousands more lose their lives in this process.
00:19But what if we're the ones forcing them to migrate here?
00:22In order to truly understand the migrant crisis, as well as its interdependence and complexity,
00:27we have to see it from different perspectives.
00:30For example, previous research has shown that international trade flows determine the domestic
00:35economies of Latin American countries.
00:37Upon analyzing the long-term net trade between the USA and Latin America, the statistically
00:41significant results demonstrate that net increases in the flow of trade with Latin America cause
00:47increases in the aggregate migration here to the USA, as shown by Figure 3.
00:52Moreover, the demand for drugs in the USA is intense.
00:56However, illegal companies, also known as narcocartels, prefer to operate across Latin America,
01:02utilizing land, agricultural resources, and violence to supply the USA drug demand.
01:07Previous research shows that the marijuana trade between the USA and Mexico provides significant
01:12profits to these cartels, that the cartels are a major fear of Mexican nationals, and their
01:17violence motivates migration.
01:19Previous research also establishes that border states which legalize marijuana have a significant
01:24decrease in their violent crime rates.
01:26As a result, I conducted a linear regression to compare the amount of states legalizing marijuana
01:31in the USA to the net flow of Mexican nationals migrating here.
01:35The statistically significant results demonstrate an intense correlation between the amount of states
01:40legalizing marijuana in the USA and a net decrease in the flow of Mexican nationals migrating
01:45in the USA, as shown by Figure 2.
01:49Unfortunately, previous research has failed to motivate policy changes.
01:52However, there is a partisan cost inherent in every year spent without an increase in visas.
01:58Previous research shows that Border Patrol apprehensions are causally related to increases in conservative
02:04self-identification.
02:05I extended this research until 2021, while validating previous findings.
02:10From 1990 to 2021, the rise in Border Patrol apprehensions resulted in an increase in conservative self-identification.
02:18Therefore, the partisan benefits from policy stagnation are highly one-sided, benefiting the conservative
02:23party at the cost of the liberal.
02:25This is shown in Figure 1.
02:28Therein, it's also illogical to say that Victima de la Sánchez-Ceros lost her life because
02:32of a personal choice, when our international trade policies, our marijuana laws, and our
02:37demand for drugs are what made her leave her home.
02:41Rivers of resources can thus be used to dictate the fertility of paths in life.
02:46Or they can be used as deterrence for migration, sweeping away lives, liberty, and the pursuit
02:50of happiness in the process.
02:52The choice is ours to make.
02:55Thank you for your time.
Comments