00:00I'm pleased to welcome now retired Admiral James Stavridis. He is a former supreme allied
00:05commander of NATO, a Bloomberg opinion columnist, a vice chair at Carlisle, and he's also the
00:10co-author of 2084, a novel of future war. This comes after 2034 and 2054. Read them both and
00:21loved them. Look forward to reading this one, Admiral. What is the premise? Give us the basic
00:26setup for 2084. Look, it's set in that year, 2084, and alliances have scrambled. They've shifted.
00:35Now the United States and China are aligned and they are confronting powers from the center of
00:43the world, if you will, the equatorial nations, Indonesia, Brazil, Nigeria. By 2084, because of
00:52global warning, those nations are going to want more land, reparations. They have a fleet. They're
00:59coming north and it's a confrontation that ensues. And I'll give you just a tiny spoiler.
01:08Deep in the book, there's a woman planting grapes, wait for it, in Greenland. So a lot going on in
01:16the book, a great summer read looking ahead to that year, 2084. How realistic are some of these
01:23concerns? I was looking at, Robert Gates wrote a blurb for your book and said, it's a terrifying
01:30reminder, I'm paraphrasing here, of how quickly things can spin out of control. Have we seen some
01:36of that happen this year in the Strait of Hormuz? Absolutely. And it's a good reminder. Look back
01:44a hundred years. How did the first world war start back in 1914? Miscalculation, escalation,
01:55same scenarios in the present day. You see them in and around the Strait and very likely, unfortunately,
02:02we'll continue this pattern in 2084. The more we think about it and try to reverse engineer it,
02:09the better our chances of avoiding it. I'm wondering about your writing process,
02:15Admiral, because in trying to analyze how Iran would react, it seems this administration didn't
02:24expect them to close the Strait of Hormuz. But when I talk to former Pentagon officials, they say
02:29they've been gaming this out for decades and that was always one of the possibilities.
02:34When you were active in the military, I imagine you were gaming out potential situations. Is that
02:41how you put these books together? It is how we put books together. And let's just take Strait of
02:46Hormuz. I've sailed through it close to a hundred times as a naval officer. I know those waters intimately.
02:54Yes, we have been planning and gaming the idea of a straight closure for decades. Why we did not
03:02anticipate Iran using that card? It surprises me. Now we've really only got three options. Number one,
03:11we can walk away from it. Bad. Number two, we can return to massive military strikes. I think bad,
03:19very expensive retaliation against our Gulf allies. Option three, which is where we all kind of hope this
03:27is going to land at this point is what's unfolding. It's a two point peace plan. Open the Strait of
03:34Hormuz.
03:34We will lift the blockade on your ports. We'll park the nuclear discussion in a sidecar to be negotiated
03:43further. So I think that's where we're going to land kind of two and three, 65 percent confidence.
03:49Let's hope for we need to avoid further escalation here. That's been a footfall again and again in human
03:57history. Doesn't the president have to get a better deal than the PCOA in order to bring this thing to
04:04an end? I mean, we can't leave it just as bad as it was before. It is unfinished business of
04:14the worst
04:15kind. And I agree with your premise. And I think that's in President Trump's mind as well. He wants
04:22a real sense of guarantee. I think the number in his head is probably at least a 20 year. And
04:29plus,
04:30he wants to get the nuclear material physically out of Iran. Those are going to be difficult
04:36negotiations. The deal on the table, as reported, as our correspondent just told us, is to conduct that
04:44negotiation separately, seriously, but into the future. All this a very complex set of choices
04:52for President Trump. Let's hope we can at least get the straight open and get the global economy
04:58out of irons. How is, you know, when I look back at 2034, at your first novel, I think a
05:05lot about
05:07Taiwan and its independence, China's ambitions to completely control that island nation, which
05:14controls itself, the chip production for the world has become so important. How likely is it that China
05:22looks at what we've done in Iran, what Russia's done in Ukraine and says, all right, now we're going
05:28to go and take Taiwan? Certainly a consideration. I'm sure Beijing is contemplating all those scenarios.
05:36I think there are three quick reasons why it's unlikely we're going to see President Xi kind
05:42of lunge at the ball here and invade Taiwan. Number one, he's built a big, beautiful, glittering military.
05:49It has no real combat experience. He just fired about half his admirals and generals. I don't think
05:57militarily he feels ready to make that move. Number two, sanctions. He's watching the sanctions
06:03applied to Iran, the sanctions applied to Russia. That has to give him pause as he continues to build
06:10his own economy. And then third and finally, from the perspective of China, they know if they invade,
06:18it's not like the Taiwanese are going to show up on the invasion beach and hand the keys to the
06:24fabs
06:25for the chips to China. They're going to blow those fabs. That's going to create a global
06:31challenge economically. Xi doesn't want that either. So I don't think a near-term invasion
06:38of Taiwan is in the offing. Let's hope not. Can I ask what you think about our preparedness?
06:43I mean, we all hope that the military industrial complex can produce munitions faster and more
06:53efficiently and, of course, that we still have enough left. But I continue to see reports that
06:57we've used a lot of, for example, cruise missiles. Cruise missiles, also air defense missiles,
07:05the patriots, the thads. I wouldn't say we're running short of those, but we have used a great
07:12deal of the existing stocks. We still have a lot in reserve. I think we're still relatively well
07:19prepared. And our defense industrial base, what has been called the military industrial complex,
07:26defense industrial base is still fairly capable. We could go into depth on some weaknesses. But overall,
07:34I would say to our opponents, don't bet against us. We can replenish those stocks quickly.
07:41Yeah, I think we can have confidence saying we still have the most powerful military in the world.
07:46Going back to your experience in the strait, Admiral, we have seen reports that the Iranians are going to
07:54need to take their mines out of the water within the first 30 days if we get this extended ceasefire.
08:00How likely do you think it is they'll be able to do that? I mean, we've hit them so hard.
08:05I imagine
08:06there are a lot of people who laid mines and are no longer with us. How difficult is it going
08:12to be
08:12to clear up that strait? I think it's going to be quite difficult. And every time I hear the
08:19supposed details, the one that kind of gets my attention as an admiral is,
08:24Iran will clear the mines that they placed in the water. Let me tell you, it's not a precise business.
08:31When you're clearing mines ashore, yeah, you have a very precise idea where that mine is. Many of these
08:38mines could have broken away from their moorings. They could be drifting around the Gulf.
08:44They will know where some of them are. They may have lost track in all the fog of war of
08:49others.
08:50I think if I'm a merchant captain, a master of a huge tanker, boy, I'm not looking for the honor
08:59of
08:59being the first ship through the straits after they're cleared by the Iranians. So I think that's
09:05a 30-day process. That's kind of a minimum. Then we are going to want U.S., European, maybe Asian
09:13minesweepers, our allies, partners, and friends to sweep that channel as well and make sure it's
09:19clear. This is not going to be just snap your fingers and open this strait.
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