00:00Let's imagine 10 years from now and we've done it and somehow we've solved all the sci-fi scenarios so
00:06that the AI doesn't want to kill us all, et cetera.
00:08Let's just imagine the rosy scenario.
00:11Assuming the robots don't kill us.
00:13Assuming we solve that and the AI works on our behalf and it does what we want it to do
00:17and it can create incredible material gains.
00:20Is that a contemplatable scenario from an economist's perspective?
00:24There is absolutely a scenario where we could be in that wonderful place with high productivity growth.
00:31At the same time, we don't have civil unrest or rogue forces using AI for ill.
00:37But I do not know a single person who will say that that's going to happen, you know, with a
00:42significant amount of certainty.
00:44There is a very high degree of uncertainty and there are several who also believe that it's yet to be
00:51seen whether there is going to be any major productivity gain.
00:55There are analysts who believe that productivity could go up by two percentage points a year over and above where
01:02it is right now, which is around two percentage points a year.
01:04I mean, that is huge.
01:06There is no evidence right now of that kind of a productivity wave coming through.
01:12So it's early.
01:13It's been really great for my own productivity.
01:15It's not affecting my wages or anything so far.
01:19But there is a lot of uncertainty, which is what is very curious about the markets, right?
01:24Because on the one hand, it is impressive where the stock markets are, close to a record high.
01:30And maybe, you know, one can explain that by saying, well, there is a scenario where everything goes perfectly well.
01:37But there are so many other scenarios that could play out between now and next year or even two years
01:42from now.
01:43And you barely see that being priced in markets.
01:46And I think that's frankly more surprising.
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