00:00Sell and may and go away, was that ever a thing? Is that just a rhyme?
00:03It is a rhyme. It's not backed by any statistical evidence for the broad market.
00:07Where there is evidence that sell and may and go away actually does work is more in cyclicals,
00:13where you typically see cyclicals begin to struggle from May until November,
00:17and then November up until April is when you typically see cyclicals outperform.
00:21So not for the broad market, maybe for a small cohort.
00:24Cyclicals like DRAM producers?
00:27Well, we always included the semiconductors in those cyclical parts of the market,
00:32but of course the people are starting to argue that semiconductors are no longer cyclical,
00:36but are secular because of how strong this cycle is, that you're starting to see...
00:41Wait, do you buy that? You made a face. I don't think you buy that 100%.
00:44I think that it would be foolish to think that we will never have a down cycle in these areas.
00:50I think that we are in the mother of all super cycles,
00:53which just means that we have constantly been underestimating how far this upcycle can go.
01:00But I think the question is, is if you look at somebody like a micron with 80% gross margins,
01:05how sustainable are those gross margins all the way into the future in perpetuity,
01:09or do we expect some normalization as demand will eventually at some point normalize?
01:15Yes.
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