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00:07It is election night in America and the focus is on Texas, where the outcome of a single Republican primary
00:12runoff tonight could reshape the Senate this fall and perhaps recast the political landscape for the rest of the Trump
00:18presidency.
00:18That is how significant the race between Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton and the incumbent U.S. Senator John Cornyn
00:25could turn out to be, could turn reliably Red Texas into a tipping point state in November.
00:30Most polls there just closed. Official results are just starting to come in.
00:34John Cornyn has held the seat for more than two decades.
00:37National Republicans believe he'd be a stronger opponent in November to the Democratic nominee, James Tallarico, than Attorney General General
00:44Paxton,
00:45who has a long history of alleged political, personal and financial misconduct, all of which he denies,
00:51some of which other Republican lawmakers have been calling attention to.
00:55I think that the gentleman who will be endorsed should reasonably be indicted for felony.
01:01And so that's obviously going to have implications in terms of how the Democrats attack her.
01:07Well, Maine Republican Susan Collins described Paxton as, quote, an ethically challenged individual.
01:12She and Senator Bill Cassidy, who just heard from, spoke out a day after the president endorsed him on social
01:17media,
01:17naturally posting that, quote, John Cornyn is a good man and I worked well with him, but he was not
01:23supportive of me when times were tough.
01:25That move was the latest straw for some Senate Republicans last week and was part of what scuttled key legislation
01:30the president wanted passed by now.
01:32Still, it has not deterred him from urging voters as recently as earlier today to vote Paxton.
01:37He's already driven Senator Cassidy out of office, backing a primary challenger to him,
01:42and done the same to Republican Congressman Thomas Massey and a string of Republican state lawmakers over the last several
01:47weeks.
01:48So tonight will be the latest test of his primary clout.
01:52It'll also cap a race that has broken a record for ads spending close to $130 million.
01:58Also notable, the negative campaigning from both sides.
02:02He's been in office since I was in college and I'm 63, so 42 years in office.
02:06I've been asking every voter, whether it's one voter or thousands,
02:11what has John accomplished that's good for the state of Texas or the country?
02:15I think it's time for accountability.
02:16He's gotten away with so much for so long and not been held accountable for it.
02:22But I think he is an embarrassment, his misbehavior, and he's completely unrepentant.
02:30I mean, it's one thing for a person to make a mistake and then say, you know, I'm sorry, I'll
02:35do better next time.
02:36But that's not Ken Paxton.
02:39As always on nights like these, CNN's John King is at the magic wall.
02:42He starts us off.
02:43So, John, what are the numbers there, Joe?
02:45Anderson, very, very, very, very early numbers coming in.
02:49You see a handful of counties reporting votes.
02:50Ken Paxton leading in all of them.
02:52Too soon to say he's flipping some because of a Trump endorsement.
02:55But you'd rather be ahead than behind.
02:57And in the early vote, it's 61 percent to 39 percent.
03:00So, out of the box, Ken Paxton takes a lead.
03:04Early, again, 254 counties in Texas.
03:06And we have results and preliminary results in just a handful of them.
03:09So, we have a lot of votes to count.
03:11But if you're Paxton, you're just looking in places that maybe John Cornyn won in the primary.
03:15Have you flipped them when you get here?
03:17I'll get to some of that in a second.
03:18Well, let's actually do it.
03:19Let's look and count some votes.
03:20This is Jefferson County here.
03:22It says 60 percent estimated reporting.
03:24We'll see how that goes.
03:25A lot more votes were cast in the primary.
03:26But you see 67 to 33.
03:29Let's just go back.
03:29We are here in a runoff because nobody got 50 percent plus one in the primary.
03:33So, how did Paxton Cornyn go in Jefferson County just a few weeks back?
03:37Well, Cornyn carried this county with 49 percent.
03:40So, here again, Anderson, we're not final here.
03:43But this is what we're looking for all night long.
03:44Here is a county that Senator Cornyn won, led a few weeks back.
03:48And what's happening right now, the Attorney General is leading at the moment.
03:52So, do we see that in county after county after county?
03:55Then it would be fair to read that as a cue Republicans are listening to their president.
03:58So, more counties coming in.
04:00None of them populous counties yet.
04:01But you just flip over and everywhere we're looking at the early results, that's Paxton.
04:05Red is the deeper red.
04:07Cornyn is a brighter, lighter red.
04:08So, Paxton leading everywhere right now, Anderson.
04:11What do we need to know if this is going to hold up?
04:13So, the population centers, that's Harris County, Houston, Dallas and Tarrant up here.
04:20Tarrant actually has some votes in.
04:21I'll get there in a second.
04:22Number two and number three, Bexar County, San Antonio, Travis County, Austin.
04:26Those are the top five counties by population.
04:28If Cornyn's going to have any prayer tonight, he's going to have to win populated areas, suburbs around the cities,
04:35establishment Republicans who might say,
04:37we like our senator for 20 plus years, sorry Mr. President, we're going to vote for him.
04:41The kind of Republicans, Anderson, who might vote Trump in November, but don't necessarily like his character, don't necessarily like
04:46that he's messing with their establishment candidate.
04:48Will we see that?
04:49We don't know.
04:49The one place I do want to look before I toss back to you is right here.
04:52This is a population center.
04:53Tarrant County is Fort Worth.
04:55It's the second, third, forgive me, most populous of the 354.
04:58And you see Paxton there with an early lead of 59% to 40, 41%, not insignificant.
05:04Just want to check back.
05:05This is, again, a county that Cornyn, I was talking earlier, the suburban establishment Republicans, business Republicans, do they stick
05:13with Cornyn or do enough of them listen to the president?
05:16Well, 45 to 38 a few weeks ago, Paxton on top, 59 to 41 at the moment, a ways to
05:22go.
05:22But some early indications, Anderson, that the president's endorsement, now that it's a one-on-one race, is helping the
05:30attorney general, who at the moment is leading.
05:31And you know this.
05:32I heard you cover it in the lead-in.
05:34Democrats want Paxton on top.
05:36Are they right that he's a weaker November candidate?
05:38We'll figure that out between now and then if that's what happens.
05:41But this is, right now, you have an incumbent Republican senator in the early results in a little bit of
05:45trouble.
05:46And Democrats would be quite encouraged by this.
05:48And, again, we'll be in Texas all through November.
05:50Yeah, sure will.
05:51Well, John King, thanks very much.
05:52We'll check in with you throughout this hour.
05:54Joining me now is CNN's senior political commentator, former special advisor President Obama, Van Jones.
05:58CNN's political commentator, former Trump White House communications director in the first term,
06:02Alyssa Faragriffin, journalist and founder of Lift Our Voices, Gretchen Carlson,
06:06and CNN political commentator and Republican strategist Brad Todd.
06:10Alyssa, it looks like Trump's endorsement does, in fact, matter.
06:14I mean, think of how seismic this is, that the one man has the ability to take out somebody who's
06:19potentially,
06:20we'll see where the results go tonight, but has been in the Senate for over a decade, is well-liked
06:24in the state,
06:25somebody who's beloved within the Republican Party, but his one endorsement goes so far.
06:29And in an earlier runoff, he was winning.
06:32Correct.
06:32And this just goes to show the staying power that Donald Trump has with his base.
06:36But I would remind you guys, Donald Trump's endorsements and primaries often do not bode well in general elections.
06:42Now, this is still Texas.
06:43It's still hard for a Democrat to beat a Republican.
06:47But Herschel Walker, Blake Masters, Doug Mastroch, no, Carrie Lake, the list goes on.
06:53So a lot of Republicans today are saying, why did he have to get involved here?
06:57Cornyn was better positioned to beat James Tallarico.
06:59Also, I mean, Van, if you look at Cornyn's voting record, as he touted, I mean, it was overwhelmingly for
07:05Trump.
07:0699 and a half won't do.
07:08It's got to be 100, 300 percent support is what Trump wants.
07:13I just want to applaud.
07:15Yeah, it was literally 99.2 percent with Trump.
07:18I have to say, I want to applaud our president's judgment.
07:24I appreciate him weighing in.
07:26I think Paxson is a great choice for Republicans in Texas.
07:31I hope they come out in droves for him.
07:33Support your president.
07:34You think against Tallarico in a match-off, he's the worst candidate.
07:38Hey, listen, Tallarico is special.
07:42That boy got some magic with him.
07:44And he is incredibly strong.
07:46But Texas is a bright red state.
07:48He needs somebody that he can contrast with.
07:53Cornyn is incredibly popular.
07:55He's incredibly accomplished.
07:56He's a household name there.
07:59Tallarico needs somebody that he can contrast with.
08:02I appreciate Donald Trump's gift to Tallarico tonight.
08:06I would agree with that.
08:08And I would add in for Tallarico that he's a minister.
08:11I have said for the last six months that the Democratic Party would do well to bring religion back to
08:16the party.
08:17The Republicans have pretty much hijacked religion, at least Christianity.
08:22And I think it's very important for Tallarico to talk about that, as well as bring back the Democratic Party
08:28to the basic issues of the economy, et cetera.
08:31I also would just add in one little red herring.
08:34Texas is an open primary.
08:36And so that means that if you didn't vote previously, you don't have to sign up for a party to
08:42go vote today.
08:43So independents or Democrats or whomever who did not vote in the Tallarico-Jasmine Crockett race could, in fact, go
08:52vote today.
08:53And I would just put out there that maybe some independents would vote for Paxton on purpose because they feel
08:59that if they like Tallarico,
09:01because they feel that that Paxton or Tallarico has a better chance against Paxton than Cornyn.
09:06Brad, what do you think of the president weighing in?
09:08Well, I think it's probably a hundred million dollar mistake.
09:11I think if John Cornyn pulls it off tonight, which I think the odds are against him,
09:16we would not be talking about the Texas Senate race the rest of this year.
09:19There are six other target Senate race Democrats would have to win all six to take control of the chamber.
09:25This gives them a theoretical chance at seven.
09:27Although I will note, Texas being taken by a Democrat is the hype stock of our time.
09:34It's crypto.
09:36And so I suspect Democrats.
09:38More meme coin.
09:38Yeah, it's meme coin.
09:41Democrats may waste a lot more money here than Republicans will before it's over with.
09:45Well, I mean, look, it is true that we always get our hopes up in Texas and we usually come
09:50home brokenhearted.
09:51But this is going to be a wave election, I think.
09:53I think people are fed up.
09:55I think people are frustrated.
09:57And I think you're going to see a lot of people come out.
09:59And with Tallarico, you don't have to vote only against somebody who's been, you know,
10:04indicted and impeached and all kind of terrible stuff with Paxton.
10:07You can vote for somebody who's trying to turn the page on a whole epoch of just nastiness in our
10:14politics.
10:14We don't have to be mean.
10:15We don't have to be nasty.
10:16You can believe in something.
10:18He's a clean cut guy.
10:19He believes in something.
10:20He can inspire people.
10:22So I think I'm glad we're going to be in Texas.
10:24I think you're going to see the best of the Democrats versus the worst of the Republicans.
10:27And there's a shot there.
10:28Well, and it also is the fact that the Republicans are now going to have to spend money in Texas
10:33that you shouldn't have to be spending in Texas.
10:34I mean, they've already spent $130 million.
10:36But with Cornyn, that becomes a much easier race to win.
10:39He's also himself a monster fundraiser and big contributor to Senate Republicans.
10:43But now you may be having to bail out this candidate who has tremendous vulnerabilities,
10:48litigating his ethics issues throughout his personal failings.
10:51And that's just not where you want to be when you're trying to defend North Carolina,
10:54Maine and other places.
10:56And I think an interesting thing to watch, if in fact Paxton wins tonight, is whether or
11:00not somebody with that many failures and flaws, a la Donald Trump in his personal life, Trump
11:08gets away with that.
11:09Trump is Teflon.
11:11But does Paxton get away with that against Tallarico?
11:14I mean, I think that's the biggest question that we're all asking each other is, is it
11:18only Trump who can have all these flaws and continue to get away with things?
11:21Or is it other candidates?
11:22I think Tallarico is a very flawed candidate.
11:24I think if Democrats had nominated a devout Catholic border county Hispanic sheriff, I would
11:29be really concerned.
11:31But, you know, Tallarico is to the far left.
11:33There's almost no issue where he is not on the far leftmost poll of the Democratic Party.
11:38You know, he claimed he would go vegan to stop climate change.
11:41Well, in Texas, there are more cows than there are vegans in America.
11:45It's going to be a very unpopular.
11:53It is the primary race of the night, if not the year.
11:56Incumbent Texas Republican Senator John Cornyn now trailing Texas Attorney General Ken
11:59Paxton in a runoff that could determine who controls the Senate in November.
12:03About 20 percent of the vote counted, though.
12:05So it is still early.
12:06We want to go to both election headquarters.
12:09See, Ann's Arlette Saenz, who's covering the Paxton campaign first.
12:12Arlette?
12:14Well, Anderson, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton is feeling confident heading into tonight.
12:19And a big reason why is because of President Donald Trump's decision to endorse him at the
12:24last minute in this contest.
12:26I was speaking with the GOP source aligned with Paxton a bit earlier today, and they said
12:31that Trump's endorsement of Paxton, who was already popular with the MAGA base, was a very
12:36big help to them in this runoff.
12:38Now, Paxton has faced a lot of criticism due to some of his personal and political scandals
12:44here in the state of Texas, scandals that he has survived throughout his political life.
12:48But there have been many GOP senators who have expressed frustration with the president's
12:52decision to endorse Paxton over Cornyn, who they believe would be a better bet at holding
12:57this Senate seat red come November.
12:59Now, I asked a Paxton supporter here at this event this evening about some of Senator Cornyn's
13:04arguments that Paxton's scandals could be a liability for Republicans come November.
13:09She is seen here wearing this MAGA, this Make Texas Great Again jacket.
13:15And she told me of these criticisms of Paxton's scandals, quote, I'm not marrying him.
13:21He isn't my pastor.
13:23He isn't my spiritual advisor.
13:24But he's a very good attorney general.
13:26And that is a sentiment that we hear from a lot of Paxton supporters heading into this
13:30runoff.
13:31The big question is, is whether that is something that general election voters might be willing
13:36to overlook if he becomes a GOP nominee and faces off against Democratic nominee James
13:41Tallarico in November?
13:43All right.
13:44Arlette Saenz, thanks very much.
13:45We want to go now to Senator Cornyn's campaign headquarters, where Manu Raju is standing by.
13:49What's the mood there?
13:52A lot of concern, Anderson.
13:54Nervousness that this could be the end of a career that has spanned decades here in Texas
13:58that led to Cornyn holding his Senate seat since 2002, ascending to the top ranks of the
14:04Senate Republican leadership, but could see it come to an abrupt halt, all in large part
14:09because of the president's late decision to get behind Ken Paxton in this critical race
14:14that could determine the next Senate majority.
14:16I talked to Senator Cornyn earlier today, and he bluntly warned Republicans against nominating
14:22Paxton, continuing to attack him up until the final days of the campaign.
14:26I asked him, why not back off these attacks, given that Paxton himself has called on the party
14:32to unite, calling the party to have a positive message and to focus on James Tallarico instead.
14:37But Cornyn defended his decision to go, continue to go negative, saying that voters deserve
14:42to hold Paxton accountable.
14:47The system emboldened him to the point of recklessness and now to the point of self-destructiveness,
14:53especially with regard to his own family.
14:55I just think you cannot trust Ken Paxton.
14:57Trump has had similar allegations against him.
14:59Do you have the same concerns about Trump?
15:01I think it's a totally different scenario, and I'm running against Ken Paxton, and so
15:07that's why we're making the case, because I think voters have a right to know.
15:10The attacks that you have waged against him, is he going to be damaged in November if he's
15:14a nominee?
15:15Well, I have every confidence that the Democrats would be able to find that same information
15:19and use it.
15:20And so, but I think it's important to the electorate to be informed, well-informed.
15:30But those same arguments are the ones that both Cornyn and Senate Republican leaders had
15:35made to President Trump for months.
15:38They essentially pleaded with him, begged him in some cases to get behind Cornyn, who
15:42they believed it would be a surer bet come November.
15:45But the president, of course, went his own way.
15:47And Cornyn says, as a result, other states in November could see their resources squandered
15:53if they have to spend money to help prop up Paxson's campaign after, given all the criticism,
15:59the baggage that he has headed into November.
16:02But ultimately, the president made his choice here.
16:05And that's just one big reason.
16:06A lot of Cornyn supporters are bracing for a loss tonight because of the president's decision
16:12and because of the way this Republican Party has shifted towards the MAGA-line base of
16:16the party.
16:17And Samana Raju, thanks.
16:18We'll go check in with you throughout the night.
16:20Back now with our panel.
16:22I mean, is this, does this boil down to personality?
16:25Does he, does the president just not like the guy?
16:28Because 99.2% voting record with the president would seem to be pretty good.
16:33So this one's interesting.
16:35I wouldn't argue this is about John Cornyn being disloyal.
16:38First, for his voting record and his criticisms of Donald Trump after January 6th were fairly
16:43benign considering where most of the Republican Party was.
16:45I would argue Lindsey Graham was more critical of Donald Trump after January 6th.
16:49The difference is he's juxtaposed to Ken Paxson, who is a diehard loyalist and always
16:54has been.
16:54So he's, Donald Trump's always going to pick someone who was stayed in the trenches with
16:58him at his lowest moment.
17:00Paxson, I think, came to the trial in New York City.
17:03He came to the trial.
17:04He was also someone who pushed the election lies.
17:06So this is somebody who's been deeply, deeply in the Trump world.
17:09So Cornyn, in many ways, is kind of just an innocent bystander in all of this.
17:13And so is, by the way, the Senate majority potentially in any legislative agenda that Donald
17:17Trump wanted to get through the Senate.
17:18It is fascinating, though, that somebody who's like, you know, you're ride or die, he's going
17:24to pick him.
17:25I mean, as part of this, he's, you know, he has two more years left after the midterms,
17:30and he just wants people who are going to do whatever he wants.
17:33Yeah.
17:33I mean, that's who he has as far as his cabinet secretaries.
17:37That's who he has as far as the people close to him.
17:39It's very different from his first term as president.
17:42I would argue that the voting record of any Republican is meaningless.
17:48Like, to say that Cornyn is 99 percent, you could say it was 62 percent.
17:52And it really doesn't matter when Donald Trump is making the decisions.
17:56You cross him one time, and you are out.
18:00I mean, I would venture to say that somebody like Senator John Fetterman, who's a Democrat,
18:04who has been siding more and more with Republicans, if he said something nice about Trump tomorrow,
18:08Trump would maybe endorse him.
18:10I mean, it's just because of this immense loyalty, and don't say anything negative about me,
18:16and that's the way I'm going to run business.
18:17Brad, what do you think is the message to other Republicans, I mean, who are watching this?
18:23It certainly would put some fear into people, I would say.
18:26Well, I think the president has plenty of supporters in all the rest of the primaries,
18:30including John Cornyn tonight.
18:31And I don't think, I think your first theory is correct.
18:34I don't think this is about John Cornyn.
18:36I think this is about the president's very frustrated with the fact that 30 to 40 Republican senators won't give
18:41up the filibuster.
18:42And John Cornyn just happened to be the hostage closest to shoot.
18:46And so I think that this is a manifestation of that frustration, more than it is any trait about John
18:51Cornyn.
18:52I mean, he's not a bomb thrower.
18:53And certainly some of the president's strongest supporters don't like that about him.
18:58He is an incumbent who had some softness in the primary electorate way before Donald Trump engaged on this.
19:03But I think if the president really had a gripe with John Cornyn,
19:07he would have endorsed Ken Paxton in the first race in March.
19:11I think that's right.
19:12Well, I mean, from my point of view, you know, we pick on Trump a lot.
19:17And there are two ways for him to be a fool tonight and one way for him to be a
19:22genius.
19:24If Paxton were to have lost, Trump would look like a fool.
19:27Looks like he's not going to lose.
19:30It looks like Paxton's going to win.
19:31The other way for Trump to be a fool is for Tallarico to beat him.
19:35And we don't know.
19:37But if it turns out that Trump has picked this very flawed, very compromised, very divisive figure
19:46who goes on to beat Cornyn and beat Tallarico, then Trump looks like a political genius,
19:53especially if this seat winds up being the determinant of which of these parties actually controls the Senate.
20:00So Trump has taken a big gamble tonight.
20:03It, from my point of view, is a reckless gamble.
20:06He's going to wind up flushing $200 million down the drain in Texas to pull this off.
20:11But listen, if we're sitting here in November and Tallarico goes down and that becomes the seat,
20:16then he will have held on to the Senate on his own terms.
20:19And that's the kind of stuff Donald Trump sometimes gets away with.
20:22You're making it sound like it's strategy.
20:24I mean, I'm just being honest here.
20:26I mean, it might be, but my view is that this is totally based on Trump's gut
20:31and that this is not necessarily long-term strategy.
20:33But you laid it out very, very well.
20:35But he also has the money in the bank to back it up.
20:37You know, the president's allied political committees have maybe $300 million in the bank.
20:41He's a great fundraiser.
20:42He could replenish that over and over.
20:43He's got a $1.8 billion fund.
20:47One of Ken Paxton's biggest weaknesses is that he's a bad fundraiser.
20:51He has other weaknesses, too, but that's one of his biggest weaknesses.
20:53And by the way, Tallarico is a phenomenal fundraiser.
20:55With the $24 million on hand right now, it's going to go only up.
20:58Because the sex appeal for a Democrat donor to think they might could flip Texas is just too good.
21:03Everybody who owns an NPR tote bag will give him three grand.
21:07Let's check in with John King and Magiwal.
21:08John?
21:09Anderson, it's nice to see you again.
21:10Look, the map is filling in.
21:12We're only at 36% of the vote.
21:13But your eyes don't lie if you look at that map.
21:16The darker red is Ken Paxton, the attorney general of the state,
21:20and the mega-candidate, of course, who has the president's endorsement in this runoff.
21:24And most of the state at the moment, 254 counties in the state of Texas,
21:28most of them filling in for Paxton right now.
21:30I'm going to tap a Cornyn first because I made this point at the top of the show.
21:34For Cornyn to have any prayer here, to overcome the power of a Trump endorsement
21:38in a state where Trump is very popular, like Texas,
21:41Cornyn would have to win and win big in the bigger urban areas and the suburbs around them.
21:46They might be blue in November, but there are a lot of Republicans in Dallas,
21:49in the suburbs around Dallas.
21:50John Cornyn is winning Dallas County.
21:53Where Houston is, it's the most populous county.
21:55And then it's Dallas and Tarrant, number two and number three.
21:58And in Tarrant County, Fort Worth, in the suburbs,
22:00then you start to get a little more rural as you move west, 59% to 40%.
22:04Only 57% of the vote in, so we have more votes to count.
22:06But again, the math doesn't lie there, Anderson, as you come through it.
22:10And then I just want to show you something else we talked a little bit about earlier.
22:13I'm just going to draw a line around here.
22:15In the northern part of Texas, northwest part of Texas here,
22:19you see all these counties that we have votes.
22:20Gray means we have no votes yet, for those of you at home.
22:23But all these counties where we do have votes are Paxton Red tonight in the runoff,
22:27post-Trump endorsement.
22:29Now let's take a quick glimpse of where they were just a couple weeks ago
22:33in the primary, pre-Trump endorsement.
22:35Wow.
22:35And you see the lighter red, that's John Cornyn.
22:39Again, they're not all filled in yet, but that was then.
22:42This is now.
22:43And so we have to get to the finish line.
22:45We have to count more votes.
22:47But your eyes tell you something when you look at those counties,
22:49and that is that a lot of Republicans in places where Trump routinely gets 75%,
22:5382%, 85%, sometimes 92%, in November, where Trump is strongest out here in rural America.
23:01It appears, at least to my eyes, looking at this, that the Trump endorsement has flipped
23:05some votes, or maybe some Cornyn people just stayed home.
23:08And so then I just want to come back out and look again.
23:10Up to 41% now, Anderson, 63% to 38% if you round up those numbers.
23:15And you're starting to see more of the smaller counties fill in.
23:18And you keep looking on the map.
23:20You're like, okay, where's that place?
23:22You know how cautious I am.
23:23Where's that place?
23:23Where can I show you somewhere where I can say, aha, look, Cornyn has a path here.
23:27It's hard to find.
23:29I told you Harris County is the most populous by far in the state of Texas right here of
23:33the 254 counties.
23:3557% of the vote in estimated 65% for Ken Paxton.
23:39If Ken Paxton is winning Harris County by even a decent number, never mind almost 30 points,
23:46if he's winning Harris County by a decent number, that would be game over.
23:51John, thanks.
23:52We'll check in with you a little bit later on.
23:54We're going to continue to follow election results.
23:56We also have the latest on the Iran war, with Tehran now threatening retaliation for American
24:00strikes overnight and Israel deepening its strikes into Lebanon.
24:04We'll be right back.
24:08Starting at 5.52 this morning, the president went on a social media posting spree on Iran.
24:14Trust Trump, one post reads.
24:16Dealmaker-in-chief reads another.
24:18Yet another accuses former President Obama of treason for the deal he helped broker with
24:21Iran in 2015, a deal which may end up being better than the one President Trump will end
24:26up making with Iran, which we shall see.
24:29This followed U.S. strikes yesterday near the Strait of Hormuz on missile sites and boats
24:33attempting to lay mines.
24:34That's according to Central Command.
24:36In a statement late today, Iran's foreign ministry accused the U.S. of repeatedly violating
24:41the ceasefire, saying, quote, Iran will not leave any active aggression unanswered.
24:46Talks between the two sides appear stalled.
24:48A White House official tells Sinan the president is expected to convene a cabinet meeting tomorrow,
24:53unclear if Iran will be discussed.
24:55As for the Strait, Tehran claims that 25 vessels went through today and last night, including
24:59oil tankers, after receiving permission and security coordination from the Iranian Navy.
25:04In the war's other theater, Israel's ramping up its air campaign against targets in Lebanon,
25:09and the president is reportedly now calling on more countries in the region to join the
25:12Abraham Accords and normalize relations with Israel.
25:15Joining us, two veteran diplomats, former Undersecretary of State for Political Affairs
25:19Wendy Sherman.
25:19She led the team that negotiated the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran.
25:23Also, Ryan Crocker, former ambassador to Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iraq, Syria, Kuwait, and Lebanon.
25:29Ambassador Sherman, if the war ends with a gradual reopening of the Strait, potential sanctions
25:33relief in return for Iran, removing or degrading its highly enriched uranium, what kind of
25:39position will the regime be in?
25:43Well, Anderson, the president clearly decided on a war of choice, I would say ill choice,
25:49because as you know, the Strait of Hormuz was open before this war began.
25:54It is now a key leverage point for Iran, as is, and Ambassador Crocker knows this so much
26:01better than I do.
26:03We now have Gulf partners and allies wondering if they're going to be the targets, and even
26:09though they wanted to see Iran gone, they now realize they are drawn into this war, and
26:16they'd like it to be over.
26:18The president has used a time-honored way to deal with domestic critics, as well as try
26:25to get somewhere here, by speaking about others joining the Abraham Accords, when you can't find
26:32your way through a difficult situation, and this is a really bad one, you try to open up the aperture
26:38to try to change the dynamics.
26:41All of that said, I think what we're seeing now is all of the parties, the United States, Iran,
26:47Iran, Israel, taking their last best shots, and none of us really know what's going on behind
26:54the scenes, whether the Qataris were actually able to try to move this forward.
26:59But the final point I want to make, Anderson, is that if the president can get the Strait of
27:06Hormuz opened and the blockade over, there is a long way to go to take care of the highly
27:13enriched uranium and the lower enriched uranium, and to ensure that Iran will never have a nuclear
27:19weapon, let alone their missiles, their terror, their support of Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis.
27:27So the president has a lot of work to do, and as my book is titled, this is not for
27:34the faint of heart.
27:35Ambassador Crocker, I mean, when you read the list of countries you have been ambassador to,
27:39the list of, like, just mishigas and just insane situations that you had to deal with
27:46and face, and in terms of U.S. foreign policy and relations with other countries, where does
27:52this compare, and how do you see the current situation the U.S. is in?
27:58Well, Ambassador Sherman, I think, framed it pretty well.
28:01This is a hugely complicated mess.
28:04It was a technical diplomatic term.
28:07We've got the ceasefire, shaky, but I don't think it's broken down completely.
28:15The fact that Central Command announced the actions against Iranian targets, not the White
28:20House, suggested it was tactical in nature, and I'm sure the Iranians perceive it in the
28:25same way.
28:25But if we do get the tradeoff of free transit through the Strait of Hormuz against the lifting
28:33of the blockade, that takes us back to the status quo ante February 28th.
28:38That's all it does.
28:39And that is, frankly, the most we can hope to get right now.
28:42Everything else, as Ambassador Sherman has laid out, is incredibly complex.
28:47The two sides are very, very far apart.
28:51And again, Ambassador Sherman sat through this.
28:55I think, what was it, Wendy?
28:56Two years of face-to-face negotiations to get the JCPOA.
29:01So, if we do get the tradeoff of the opening of the Strait against the end of the blockade,
29:09that would be a tactical success.
29:12The Gulf would breathe a sigh of relief.
29:16I think the rest of the international community would, but it would settle nothing.
29:20But also, you've got to remember.
29:22You said it's status quo.
29:24That would be status quo, or the position we were in before.
29:27But the one thing that's different then is Iran has shown that they can just close down
29:33the Strait, that they have a level of control over the Strait that hadn't been exercised
29:38before, right?
29:40That's right.
29:41And that is, in a perverse sort of way, what makes this partial deal a possibility.
29:48They know they can close it down again if they want, which means they can open it up
29:53when they want.
29:56So, again, it is not a good situation to be in diplomatically for the United States.
30:00Not good at all.
30:01But you've got to be realistic.
30:03That's the most we can hope for in the short term.
30:06Ambassador Sherman, I mean, the president has touted, you know, this is being done telephonically.
30:10You know, there's not these lengthy, you know, two years of face-to-face negotiations.
30:15Can a comprehensive deal on nuclear issues be done that way?
30:22I think it's pretty impossible.
30:24It's hard enough to do it face-to-face.
30:27And as you know, all of this has been done by a very small group of people.
30:31And from the United States, it's been Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, who may be great
30:36business dealmakers.
30:38But doing this is quite a different undertaking.
30:41The Iranians and Abbas Arachi, who is my counterpart when we were doing these negotiations, is
30:47very tough, knows every part of this deal.
30:49No one's even begun to talk about the verification and monitoring that would be needed for anything
30:55that's decided here.
30:56Even this first step to open up the strait and to remove the blockade is going to take
31:02getting rid of those mines, verifying that it's happening, monitoring the situation.
31:06Because as Ryan, as Ambassador Crocker pointed out, Iran now knows it has this leverage point
31:13that it can play at any point that it wishes.
31:16So this is tough going.
31:18And what the administration needs to do, if they can get the strait opened, and then it'll
31:22take at least two or three months to get the gas and oil supply and the helium, the fertilizer
31:28and everything else moving again, and insurers feeling like there's enough security for those
31:33ships to move.
31:34That's why the verification and monitoring matters so much.
31:38But what we have to do here is then the president has to go to work with experts.
31:43I'm not a nuclear physicist.
31:45This could not have been done not only without President Obama and Secretary Clinton and
31:51then Secretary Kerry, but Secretary Moniz of our Energy Department, who was a nuclear physicist
31:58and could deal in the exquisite detail that is necessary here.
32:02Yeah.
32:03Wendy Sherman, Ambassador Ryan Crocker, thank you so much.
32:06I appreciate it.
32:06For more, I spoke earlier with Democratic Senator Chris Murphy of Connecticut.
32:09He serves on the Foreign Relations Committee.
32:11is the author of a new book, Crisis of the Common Good, the Fight for Meaning and Connection
32:15in a Broken America.
32:17So, Senator, I want to get to the book in a moment.
32:19I do just want to start with Iran.
32:20Do you see anything in where we are now that gives you any hope?
32:25Well, I'm hopeful that this war is going to end as soon as possible.
32:28It's just been a disaster for our economy.
32:31Every day the war continues.
32:32We're getting weaker.
32:33Iran is getting stronger.
32:35The deal looks like a bad deal, but it's the best we're going to get.
32:38Essentially, what they seem to be talking about is that we're going to pay
32:41Iran money through sanctions relief.
32:44Which is something the old Trump administration attacked the Obama administration for.
32:48Yeah, correct.
32:48And in that case, Obama was getting something new, which was new nuclear commitments from
32:53Iran.
32:53In this case, we're going to pay them money to just go backwards to get the strait reopened,
32:58which it was before the war began.
33:00But at this point, I'm just supportive of anything that ends this war because every day
33:05the war continues.
33:06It's more humiliation for the United States.
33:08The idea that this is a better regime that we now face, do you put any credence in that?
33:15Well, it just isn't.
33:16I mean, the fact is that we killed an Ayatollah who was 70, 80 years old, doddering, barely
33:23in charge.
33:24And we now have a more radical regime that frankly feels empowered now.
33:29They have taken America's best shot.
33:31They have survived.
33:33Their nuclear program is intact.
33:34Their drone program is intact.
33:35They still have 70 percent of their missiles.
33:37So, again, Iran feels stronger today than they were before the war, which is why we have
33:43to end it right now, frankly, at any cost.
33:46You've written this book, Crisis of the Common Good, and you're writing about a lot of, I
33:50mean, big picture things that I think a lot of people haven't kind of put pieces together
33:54on.
33:54You write about six cults, as you term them, the cult of profit, cult of everywhere, cult
34:00of technology, cult of consumption, cult of credentialism, and cult of corruption.
34:05The cult of profit really interests me.
34:07You talk about youth sports and how everything is all about profit now.
34:12Things that used to kind of be part of the social contract or a public good, it's now
34:18all for profit.
34:19Yeah, for as much focus as we have on Trump, appropriately, I think most Americans know
34:24that there's something really rotten at the core of our economy and our culture, in
34:28which we care less about our neighbors, in which everything has been turned into a commodity.
34:33And the book does open with my experience with youth sports.
34:37My son is a hockey player.
34:38The first line of the book is that he's not going to the NHL, but he plays a 60-game
34:43season
34:43because his hockey league is owned by a for-profit, private equity-backed company.
34:49And what is happening today is that everything that's good about our lives, that used to be
34:55just good, is now being bought up and sold back to us.
34:59So, for instance, it's illegal in my son's hockey league for the parents to live stream
35:05the game so that your grandparents can watch.
35:08It's illegal.
35:09It's illegal.
35:10You'll be docked points in the standings because this for-profit company has installed its
35:15own streaming service that they will charge you $25 to $50 for if you want to watch your
35:21kids' games.
35:22That just feels fundamentally wrong to people, that our kids' sports have become just a font
35:29of profit for very, very rich guys.
35:31And this book says, listen, there should be some things like education and youth sports
35:36and maybe even some aspects of medicine that should just be run for the common good, not
35:42for profit.
35:43We're obviously looking at the race in Texas tonight.
35:45Do you think Democrats have a chance to change their messaging?
35:49Well, I mean, listen to how James Tallarico, who's not a radical, talks about our economy.
35:55He says the greatest threat to America today is the billionaire class that is literally corrupting
36:01our economy.
36:03I argue in this book that you do need to tell a story about who's getting screwed in America,
36:08regular working class folks, and who's doing the screwing, which is the billionaires and
36:13the big, powerful corporations.
36:15Trump tells a different story, that you're being screwed by, you know, immigrants and
36:19Muslims and gay kids.
36:20That's a fake story.
36:21But we do have to explain who has too much power and who has too little.
36:26I think in Texas, Tallarico is doing a pretty good job of that.
36:28Senator Murphy, the book is Crisis of the Common Good.
36:31Congratulations.
36:31Thanks, man.
36:32Appreciate it.
36:34New results to bring you from Texas, including a C9 projection in one key state.
36:38That's next.
36:39We'll see you next time.
36:42Untertitelung des ZDF, 2020
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